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Old 09-17-2019, 01:16 PM   #24101
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by cannabusto View Post
I have a house, a wife, a daughter, a dog, a full time job, and try to do things in life other than play poker and be responsible. I don't have time anymore to be anything better than a solid winner. If I were a crusher, I'd probably be a bad Dad. A bad person entirely. It's not about will, attention span, or discomfort for many of us.

I put in quite a bit of work before 2017-18 though and have a boatload of live experience. Still pretty ****ing easy to be a solid winner today.
Wow thanks for this post cannabusto! Do you know how many live hours you have just out of curiosity?

Also,

What do you think about this? I know u are obviously good for the game/extremely friendly and just a great person to have at the table. I try to do this as well and be kind and friendly to my table mates.

I think if you focused a lot more and tried to actively watch every hand I would pick up on more stuff but I don’t.. I think long term I may be losing money by doing this but honestly it might be moren+EV to be known as a friendly nice player at the local card room.

Thoughts?
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Old 09-17-2019, 03:39 PM   #24102
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Originally Posted by ES2 View Post
There are a couple of other things I consider besides the ole market/equilibrium thing.

1) The Abyss. Even if you avoid it your whole life, it's part of your true win rate. It's really easy to think that when you had a massive downswing 2 years ago, you weren't playing your A game, or you've started studying harder, so it doesn't count, and your true win rate is this year's. But it does count and it could happen again.

2) So where's your yacht? This is something Limon said regarding online players who thought they could make $600/hr at commerce.

Some elite players do seem to have the lifestyles to match, but it's very rare to see poker players with lifestyles that match lofty win rates.

Not to pick on him, but I used to be a CLP sub and Dave Tuchman would talk about having a win rate north of $100/hr. Which is over $200k/yr and it would be really easy to avoid taxes on much of that.

Then he'd talk about things like buying his first house in his early 30s. So, during your 20s, you made like 2 million playing poker, but you don't have a pot to piss in. Doesn't seem like a guy with a heroin habbit, so... wha happen?

Now, if you mean I can make X/hr between midnight and 4am on a holiday weekend, that's fine. But I think that's a bit deceptive. When you say I can make x/hr grinding poker, most people think you mean playing as a full time job.

This all seems to apply to everyone who doesn't make a set income and has lots of ups and downs. For example, bartenders or servers might tell you they make like $200-300 a night and $500 on weekends, again, in cash. Probably a few do... if you are hot girl, and you got lucky and landed the best job, etc. etc. But I don't believe bar tending is a job where you can expect to consistently hover around 100k.
How did we get from $30/hr at 1/2 and $60 /hr at 2/5 is possible....to buying a yacht?
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Old 09-17-2019, 03:42 PM   #24103
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Either was mine.

(i.e. it's possible Richard isn't doing nearly as "poorly" as he's being conditioned to think he is)

GcluelesswinratenoobG
Not one person said Richard was doing poorly. He's doing well for a serious rec player who gets in maybe 10-15 hours / week.
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Old 09-17-2019, 07:28 PM   #24104
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Long time lurker here. Fantastic post Mike, I totally agree with you on this one. I have always questioned myself the same, I think the ceiling is very high but for the most people not Worth the time and work they have to invest into it. The 99% of winning regs and rec players will stick to their basic strategies forever, happy to grind their 5bb/hour and eventually someday get bored and quit the games. What do you think are the skill that separate a standard winning reg to a Crusher? Also what are the skills that a player can obtain in thousands of hours of grind that will elevate him to Crusher level.

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I typed out a long response but it was much too long and strat oriented especially for this win rate forum. In short, normal winning regs play way too ABC. There is just so much money that you can win at a poker table playing ABC. You only get so many value hands and they come only so often at the same time that someone else has a hand to pay you off with. That's why these guys think the win rate ceiling is fairly low and they normally think its right about what they win. Somewhere in the 5-8BB/ hr range. That's a nice win rate but its not the ceiling. They cant figure out how its possible to win more. The answer is that they cant until they break away from ABC play.

Winning players with a strong background in the fundamentals can become crushers when they start thinking outside the box.

Crushers win much more with no showdown.
Crushers show up with hands nobody expects based on the action.
Crushers know when to bluff and more importantly who to bluff.
Crushers are expert hand readers and can narrow down people ranges to a very small number of possible hands.
Crushers read betting patterns and use them against people to exploit them.
Crushers rep hands based on how they know the other guy would play that hand not based on the hand they actually have......ect

Honestly some of my best plays are the ones that people here say don't/won't work. One mans "over played hand" is another mans "win without showdown" profit.

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Old 09-17-2019, 07:45 PM   #24105
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I typed out a long response but it was much too long and strat oriented especially for this win rate forum. In short, normal winning regs play way too ABC. There is just so much money that you can win at a poker table playing ABC. You only get so many value hands and they come only so often at the same time that someone else has a hand to pay you off with. That's why these guys think the win rate ceiling is fairly low and they normally think its right about what they win. Somewhere in the 5-8BB/ hr range. That's a nice win rate but its not the ceiling. They cant figure out how its possible to win more. The answer is that they cant until they break away from ABC play.



Winning players with a strong background in the fundamentals can become crushers when they start thinking outside the box.



Crushers win much more with no showdown.

Crushers show up with hands nobody expects based on the action.

Crushers know when to bluff and more importantly who to bluff.

Crushers are expert hand readers and can narrow down people ranges to a very small number of possible hands.

Crushers read betting patterns and use them against people to exploit them.

Crushers rep hands based on how they know the other guy would play that hand not based on the hand they actually have......ect
Very good points. This next level would take a lot of time, effort and probably a lot of fails through the way and that scares the vast majority of the players that they are not even trying getting this good. If you have only limited time for poker or if you don't have discipline and a rock solid mindset, you will never become a Crusher. Thank you again Mike, If you have this long response saved somewhere, feel free to pn me, i like the discussion a lot.

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Old 09-17-2019, 08:46 PM   #24106
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1) I don't think that any smart person can read a book and become great at poker.

But if a live crusher can make 16bb/hr at 1/3 as a full time job, I think it stands to reason that a person who develops a well balanced game, and adds in some exploits here and there can make 10-12 bb/hr playing on friday and saturday nights. That's $30-36/hr tax free, which is like $40-45/hr. Given the nature of the work, that is a really sweet part time job for many many people.

There are 330 million people in the US. The 80th percentile in intelligence (a complicated topic we'll gloss over) is 66 million. Let's say 1/10 are tilt resistant and have the other qualities to be a solid player. That's 6.6 million.

Might be wrong, but I'd say unleashing a few thousand good semi-regs would really put a dent in the games. 1% of 6.6 million is 66,000.

Obviously, I'm mainly pulling these numbers out of my butt. But I just find it hard to believe there aren't at least 10,000 people who can and would scoop up that money util the opportunity ended.

I mean, the house is taking well over $100/hr off the table. The dealers and waitresses are effectively having Phil Ivey in the game. A crusher is makig 16/bb. Good players are making 12bb. An OMC is making 5bb. Where is all this money coming from?

2) I understand that, for any given individual, the seeming disconnect between their purported income and their lifestyle can be explained away.

Sure, maybe a waiter (Tuch and Bart's pre poker jobs) could stumble on to a way to make $120/hr in cash doing something they enjoy, and then just be like, eff it, I'm only going to put in 15 hours a week.

Maybe someone could believe that CA real estate is such a terrible investment that, though they could buy a decent condo with cash, it is better to punt off rent money for years and years. I do in fact know some people who make a lot of money and choose to rent. But they have particular reasons.

The thing is, making that kind of money is like being a pretty successful lawyer, without law school, without debt and without having to work your way up the ladder. If you are doing that as a single, young man you either come away with a lot to show for it, or you were having some real wild times.

Whether it's making 16 bbs/hr at 1/3, 14 at 2/5 or 12 at 5/t (Again, in cash) my overall impression is just that poker players lifestyles don't match those of other people who make that kind of money. Including the fact that so many people wind up walking away from poker.

This includes other gamblers. Really, I don't know any 5/10 crushers. I do know some good APs. They have paid off houses, rental properties, piles of precious metals, etc. etc.

I think it's just human nature that when your income is not clearly defined, some people are going to be wildly optimistic and others will be FOS. e.g. I used to do rideshare and on those forums, there were always a few people claiming to make $40/hr. I think some of them actually believed it. Maybe a couple were the true super stars of rideshare and actually did it. This is why multi-level marketing and similar stuff exists.

I think there are 2 main things going on. 1) Survivorship bias. 2) People dismiss massive downswings.

Again, it's really easy to say, that time years ago, where you just got crushed is no longer relevant. Back then, you went on tilt but now you wouldn't. You've improved your strat. etc. etc. I find myself falling into such beliefs.

One reason I'm not as likely to believe these things is that I do other gambling and see the crazy variance. Playing 10 line video poker at hundreds of hands an hour, you'll see many lifetimes of live cash game poker. I posted a screen cap here of when I drew an open ended straight flush draw IN DUECES WILD, and missed it 10/10 times. It was just a funny thing that happened in VP, but in live hold em it would be absolutely brutal. At the same time, you might go years without seeing it and come to believe it wasn't there.

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Old 09-17-2019, 09:32 PM   #24107
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1) I don't think that any smart person can read a book and become great at poker.

But if a live crusher can make 16bb/hr at 1/3 as a full time job, I think it stands to reason that a person who develops a well balanced game, and adds in some exploits here and there can make 10-12 bb/hr playing on friday and saturday nights. That's $30-36/hr tax free, which is like $40-45/hr. Given the nature of the work, that is a really sweet part time job for many many people.

There are 330 million people in the US. The 80th percentile in intelligence (a complicated topic we'll gloss over) is 66 million. Let's say 1/10 are tilt resistant and have the other qualities to be a solid player. That's 6.6 million.

Might be wrong, but I'd say unleashing a few thousand good semi-regs would really put a dent in the games. 1% of 6.6 million is 66,000.

Obviously, I'm mainly pulling these numbers out of my butt. But I just find it hard to believe there aren't at least 10,000 people who can and would scoop up that money util the opportunity ended.

I mean, the house is taking well over $100/hr off the table. The dealers and waitresses are effectively having Phil Ivey in the game. A crusher is makig 16/bb. Good players are making 12bb. An OMC is making 5bb. Where is all this money coming from?

2) I understand that, for any given individual, the seeming disconnect between their purported income and their lifestyle can be explained away.

Sure, maybe a waiter (Tuch and Bart's pre poker jobs) could stumble on to a way to make $120/hr in cash doing something they enjoy, and then just be like, eff it, I'm only going to put in 15 hours a week.

Maybe someone could believe that CA real estate is such a terrible investment that, though they could buy a decent condo with cash, it is better to punt off rent money for years and years. I do in fact know some people who make a lot of money and choose to rent. But they have particular reasons.

The thing is, making that kind of money is like being a pretty successful lawyer, without law school, without debt and without having to work your way up the ladder. If you are doing that as a single, young man you either come away with a lot to show for it, or you were having some real wild times.

Whether it's making 16 bbs/hr at 1/3, 14 at 2/5 or 12 at 5/t (Again, in cash) my overall impression is just that poker players lifestyles don't match those of other people who make that kind of money. Including the fact that so many people wind up walking away from poker.

This includes other gamblers. Really, I don't know any 5/10 crushers. I do know some good APs. They have paid off houses, rental properties, piles of precious metals, etc. etc.

I think it's just human nature that when your income is not clearly defined, some people are going to be wildly optimistic and others will be FOS. e.g. I used to do rideshare and on those forums, there were always a few people claiming to make $40/hr. I think some of them actually believed it. Maybe a couple were the true super stars of rideshare and actually did it. This is why multi-level marketing and similar stuff exists.

I think there are 2 main things going on. 1) Survivorship bias. 2) People dismiss massive downswings.

Again, it's really easy to say, that time years ago, where you just got crushed is no longer relevant. Back then, you went on tilt but now you wouldn't. You've improved your strat. etc. etc. I find myself falling into such beliefs.

One reason I'm not as likely to believe these things is that I do other gambling and see the crazy variance. Playing 10 line video poker at hundreds of hands an hour, you'll see many lifetimes of live cash game poker. I posted a screen cap here of when I drew an open ended straight flush draw IN DUECES WILD, and missed it 10/10 times. It was just a funny thing that happened in VP, but in live hold em it would be absolutely brutal. At the same time, you might go years without seeing it and come to believe it wasn't there.
TL : But I actually did read.

Summary...ES2 cant do it so he doesn't believe it can be done. You're welcome to your opinion.

I know for a fact it can be done and I also know for a fact I'm not the best low to mid stakes player in the US...therefore other people can do it also.

PS...Over about a 4-5 month period last year I missed 14 out of 15 OESFD while all in on the flop. The one I did hit (hit the flush not the straight flush obviously) the guy hit a boat and I lost that one too. That's all included in my win rate. Variance is brutal. We all know that but it doesn't change the fact that win rate ceilings are higher than most people here think.
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Old 09-17-2019, 10:29 PM   #24108
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It's not really about me. It's more the broader points I identified.

I do not consider myself a great player and I don't track my win rate. However, I usually think I'm the best 1/2-1/3 player in the game and often at 2/5. I'm not an ABC nit. I make a few extra buy ins a year calling with A high or worse, making hero folds, bluff raising the river etc. Things I see very few doing. I'm a big ole hippy meditator and don't tilt much. Point being, I do not think that my win rate must be the ceiling, but I just don't see a lot of people who seem to be dramatically better than me, winning pots I would not have left and right. Doing things that blow my mind.

Nor do I often see recs who are totally hopeless punting off buy in after buy in, like there were 10 years ago. So I'm not sure where all this money would come from.

When talking with players who I feel are good grinders, they are far more likely to mention having a roommate than buying a decent car or even eating out at a really nice restaurant. I've just never had the impression that a 1/3 grinder made 70k in cash or a 2/5 player made six figures in cash. And I actually think it's possible to do that for a couple of years if you run good!

That doesn't mean that absolutely zero people pull it off, but at a certain point that can just be survivorship bias. Though, of course, there are some truely great players out there. It's not like I don't believe a guy like Doug Polk is rich from poker. But it's not because he won 40bb at midstakes, it's cuz he won half a bb at nosebleeds (or whatever).

That's just the anecdotal/personal side, though. It's not about me and it's not just me. I had a meal with a guy who is a poker beast, above 5/10, and he was kind of skeptical of anybody making over 10bb at any level once positive variance was truly weeded out. That dude is way better than either of us, so it ain't about that.
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Old 09-17-2019, 11:07 PM   #24109
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The issue with arguing that people would just scoop up the poker money if it was there is off. Being an entry level programmer is easier than being a 5+bb/hr winner and pays like 70k plus great Healthcare. And there aren't enough programmers. It's been this way for years.
With that said, I've played poker in my area for ten years and there are not many people who are pros past two years. Some do, but a lot turn over... Some I still see at 1/2 or 1/3 every once in awhile. Variance is too high live poker is too slow
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Old 09-18-2019, 07:26 AM   #24110
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It's not really about me. It's more the broader points I identified.

I do not consider myself a great player and I don't track my win rate. However, I usually think I'm the best 1/2-1/3 player in the game and often at 2/5. I'm not an ABC nit. I make a few extra buy ins a year calling with A high or worse, making hero folds, bluff raising the river etc. Things I see very few doing. I'm a big ole hippy meditator and don't tilt much. Point being, I do not think that my win rate must be the ceiling, but I just don't see a lot of people who seem to be dramatically better than me, winning pots I would not have left and right. Doing things that blow my mind.

Nor do I often see recs who are totally hopeless punting off buy in after buy in, like there were 10 years ago. So I'm not sure where all this money would come from.

When talking with players who I feel are good grinders, they are far more likely to mention having a roommate than buying a decent car or even eating out at a really nice restaurant. I've just never had the impression that a 1/3 grinder made 70k in cash or a 2/5 player made six figures in cash. And I actually think it's possible to do that for a couple of years if you run good!

That doesn't mean that absolutely zero people pull it off, but at a certain point that can just be survivorship bias. Though, of course, there are some truely great players out there. It's not like I don't believe a guy like Doug Polk is rich from poker. But it's not because he won 40bb at midstakes, it's cuz he won half a bb at nosebleeds (or whatever).

That's just the anecdotal/personal side, though. It's not about me and it's not just me. I had a meal with a guy who is a poker beast, above 5/10, and he was kind of skeptical of anybody making over 10bb at any level once positive variance was truly weeded out. That dude is way better than either of us, so it ain't about that.
So let me get this straight. You're going on and on and on about win rate ceilings and how you dont believe certain numbers that Ive thrown out there.

But you dont even track your own win rate? You have got to be kidding me.
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Old 09-18-2019, 08:42 AM   #24111
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ES2 View Post
1) I don't think that any smart person can read a book and become great at poker.

But if a live crusher can make 16bb/hr at 1/3 as a full time job, I think it stands to reason that a person who develops a well balanced game, and adds in some exploits here and there can make 10-12 bb/hr playing on friday and saturday nights. That's $30-36/hr tax free, which is like $40-45/hr. Given the nature of the work, that is a really sweet part time job for many many people.

There are 330 million people in the US. The 80th percentile in intelligence (a complicated topic we'll gloss over) is 66 million. Let's say 1/10 are tilt resistant and have the other qualities to be a solid player. That's 6.6 million.

Might be wrong, but I'd say unleashing a few thousand good semi-regs would really put a dent in the games. 1% of 6.6 million is 66,000.

Obviously, I'm mainly pulling these numbers out of my butt. But I just find it hard to believe there aren't at least 10,000 people who can and would scoop up that money util the opportunity ended.

I mean, the house is taking well over $100/hr off the table. The dealers and waitresses are effectively having Phil Ivey in the game. A crusher is makig 16/bb. Good players are making 12bb. An OMC is making 5bb. Where is all this money coming from?
this isn't a great argument, especially because we're talking about gambling. there are too many factors that can't be accounted for for why your numbers could be drastically off.

anecdotally, i work in a math heavy field with many people who are smart enough to get PhDs. people know i play poker. literally no one in my office of over 100 people has ever talked to me about themselves playing poker. why? because poker (or any advantage play) as a long term winning idea is an extremely fringe idea. many people are risk adverse. many people have religious concerns. many people have family/friends that they don't want to deal fighting against. many people find the idea of spending hours in casinos as not a great use of time. etc. etc. etc. and because of that, you can't just take a population # and reduce it with factors to get to a number of what a poker population should be.

and from the other side of that coin, the people i do know that are extremely smart people that do play poker are generally terrible. they're just hobbiests.

poker is a lot like golf in many ways. this is also one of them. many people love to golf. most of those people are pretty terrible at golf, relatively speaking. being good at golf is a lot of hard work. a lot of time at ranges or greens practicing. most people, even people who physically are capable of being very good golfers just don't care enough to actually do so. most people are content to go play a round or 2 per week or month and be done with it. that's what poker is.
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Old 09-18-2019, 11:15 AM   #24112
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Summary...ES2 cant do it so he doesn't believe it can be done.
I don't think that's quite what he's saying. I think he's simply suggesting that there doesn't exactly seem to be an overwhelming abundance of evidence around backing up these crushing claims.

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poker is a lot like golf in many ways.
And as a ~twice-a-week-summer-golfer who never goes to the range and is horrible, I completely understand your comparison. The thing is, I've seen a *bunch* of evidence, both first hand in person as well on TV, that clearly suggests scores far better than my ~90s are very possible.

But I don't see nearly as much evidence of that in LLSNL games, especially the lowest rake traps, especially ones with limited BIs / small stacks (i.e. the type of game that a large percentage of posts in this forum are about).

Ggoodluck!G
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Old 09-18-2019, 12:17 PM   #24113
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And as a ~twice-a-week-summer-golfer who never goes to the range and is horrible, I completely understand your comparison. The thing is, I've seen a *bunch* of evidence, both first hand in person as well on TV, that clearly suggests scores far better than my ~90s are very possible.

But I don't see nearly as much evidence of that in LLSNL games, especially the lowest rake traps, especially ones with limited BIs / small stacks (i.e. the type of game that a large percentage of posts in this forum are about).

Ggoodluck!G
shooting better than your 90 isnt the proper comparison though. shooting low 60s would be a better one because many people can be weekend warrior golfers and be bogey golfers. 80/20 rule applies - 20% of the effort to get 80% of the results, the final 20% of the results requires 80% of the effort. with that being said, do you see guys on your local course shooting low 60s? probably not, and even if you do, are those players good enough to be on the PGA tour? i have zero doubt that if a top player (i honestly don't know who is good anymore) wanted to take the time to play 1/2, 1/3, or 2/5 for 2000 hours, they would absolutely crush, but why would they? why play 2/5 when they can play 50/100/200/400 and take Phil Hellmuth's money?

while i dont know if Mike's BB numbers are correct, i see a lot of areas that leave a lot of money on the table at 1/3 and 2/5, which is what i mostly play now, even from people who are supposedly very very good. i do think 10BB/hr is generally going to put you in the highest echelon of players, and i can say for certain if i was making 16bb/hour over 2k hours, i wouldn't tell anyone.
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Old 09-18-2019, 01:41 PM   #24114
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LLSNL rake traps are absolutely crushable. Just think of the last time you've been genuinely surprised by a play. Then imagine if you just did the right thing all the time. Which is actually possible.
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Old 09-18-2019, 02:14 PM   #24115
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I don't track my own win rate because I'm not sure what it even means and I hate record keeping. The games are changing, my play is changing. Sometimes I'm playing a crappy game for a promo. Sometimes I've decided to do Spanish lessons on an app for a couple hours while being a nit at 1/2 because, why not make $10-14/hr while doing my lessons? Or do the same thing while working on sports bets or something else. And the sample sizes are tiny.

However, I think it's a worthwhile subject to look at overall, by surveying the win rates of many other players and thinking about the broader issues.

Like, if I became convinced that a very good 2/5 player can make $75/hr full time, long term as a true win rate, then I might sharpen up my poker game expecting to make at least $50. I am pretty good, not great, at poker. Particularly live poker, and chatting people up and all those elements. So $50 seems pretty plausible IF $75 is really doable.

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Originally Posted by Ranma4703 View Post
The issue with arguing that people would just scoop up the poker money if it was there is off. Being an entry level programmer is easier than being a 5+bb/hr winner and pays like 70k plus great Healthcare. And there aren't enough programmers. It's been this way for years.
With that said, I've played poker in my area for ten years and there are not many people who are pros past two years. Some do, but a lot turn over... Some I still see at 1/2 or 1/3 every once in awhile. Variance is too high live poker is too slow
Hobby players last longer
That's a good point, and some people just won't go for it.

I actually have a couple of friends who are broke and it drives me crazy, cuz I will find some way for them to make easy money and they'll pass it up every time.

On the other hand, IDK if being a programmer is that easy for everyone. I'm dyslexic and stuff like that is a bear for me. Just endlessly staring at a screen and punching in numbers in a corporate office would be hell. (I'm assuming that's what they do).

Maybe someone is a teacher because that's what they want. But they'd also like an enjoyable side job to make more money. Maybe they are an aspiring creative. A grad student.

While it's not for everyone, playing poker is fun for a lot of people and at least tolerable for a lot of others. You make your own hours. You can travel and spend a few hours playing to offset the cost. It's really pretty cool.

I mean, this is a poker forum. We should all understand why playing poker profitably can be very appealing for the right person.

Now, to Johnny's point, I also know a lot of really smart people, gambling experts even, who are not really cut out for poker. But I think some of the types he's talking about, probably make enough money that it's not worth taking seriously.

I'm not saying that out of 330 million, or however many are adults, that a million will take that $35/hr tax free doing a leisure activity. Or 100,000. But might 10,000? That is one person in 33,000.

Would 10,000 semi regs making 10bbs/hr have a pretty big impact on the poker economy?

IDK. but, in 1/3 you've got the house taking, say, $120/hr off the table. Dealers and waitresses about $40. (both conservative) You've got a couple nits who win 5bb ($30 total). You're the crusher taking 16bb ($48). Now someone sits in making 10bb ($30). So the remaining players have to lose $268/hr. $53/hr each.

Now, what if say, 1/7,500 people is able and willing to pick up that easy money?

I think more people than that play division 1 college football or basketball.

Last edited by ES2; 09-18-2019 at 02:34 PM.
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Old 09-18-2019, 03:33 PM   #24116
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So whats your point? That my win rate ceilings are impossible to reach? Or that you dont know anyone that does it? Or that only the top 0.1% can do it? What exactly?
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Old 09-18-2019, 04:28 PM   #24117
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I don't think that's quite what he's saying. I think he's simply suggesting that there doesn't exactly seem to be an overwhelming abundance of evidence around backing up these crushing claims.

No, you are saying there's no evidence that its possible to reach numbers that I mentioned. He's trying to provide what he believes to be evidence that its NOT possible.

What would you consider proof? If someone posts a graph of 2000 hours, you'll say 2000 hours is nothing. If they post a graph of 4000 hours people will suggest maybe bad sessions have been left out. There's no way of proving any of this to someone who doesnt want to believe it.

We've been thru all of this before. Believe what you want to believe.
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Old 09-18-2019, 04:31 PM   #24118
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So whats your point? That my win rate ceilings are impossible to reach? Or that you dont know anyone that does it? Or that only the top 0.1% can do it? What exactly?
What's the average age of your opponent?
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Old 09-18-2019, 04:40 PM   #24119
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What's the average age of your opponent?
in his games? probably like 114. florida, man...

(i also fail to see how this is really relevant)
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Old 09-18-2019, 04:40 PM   #24120
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MIkestarr, can you you update us on what your winrate claims are that GG etc disagree with you about?
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Old 09-18-2019, 04:57 PM   #24121
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
No, you are saying there's no evidence that its possible to reach numbers that I mentioned. He's trying to provide what he believes to be evidence that its NOT possible.

What would you consider proof? If someone posts a graph of 2000 hours, you'll say 2000 hours is nothing. If they post a graph of 4000 hours people will suggest maybe bad sessions have been left out. There's no way of proving any of this to someone who doesnt want to believe it.

We've been thru all of this before. Believe what you want to believe.
Very few people (if any, although I admit my memory is shot and finding stuff in this thread is hard) have posted a giraffe of 12+bb/hr over a 1000 hour sample size at the 1/3 NL stakes in this thread (FWIW, I'm one of them, although in admittedly much better conditions). I don't think it's too much to ask to have at least a handful of examples to start having something to hang a hat on, and yet we don't.

I'm not going to go as far as saying it's impossible. But I think it's fair to ask for *something* that starts backing up claims, and it's fair to question otherwise.

GcluelesswinratesthreadnoobG
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Old 09-18-2019, 05:00 PM   #24122
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in his games? probably like 114. florida, man...

(i also fail to see how this is really relevant)
If your average 30 year old is way better than your average 75 year old it may help explain variation in win rates. I do 10.5bb/hr and the average is definitely over 60 including a couple young guys(30-) at the table. I know I'm crushing but I'll be the first to admit it's a very soft game.
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Old 09-18-2019, 05:01 PM   #24123
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For 1/2, if you're not over 15BB/hr you're not close to making the "right" plays.
@ 7weeks

This is the claim that sticks out for me, and I think it's fair to ask for evidence of this.

I mean, if your unraked 1/2 NL home game plays 1000bb deep, ok, whatever, all bets are off for potential ceiling. But that's not a typical LLSNL game (at least if you look at most of the LLSNL threads in this forum).

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Old 09-18-2019, 05:15 PM   #24124
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Very few people (if any, although I admit my memory is shot and finding stuff in this thread is hard) have posted a giraffe of 12+bb/hr over a 1000 hour sample size at the 1/3 NL stakes in this thread (FWIW, I'm one of them, although in admittedly much better conditions). I don't think it's too much to ask to have at least a handful of examples to start having something to hang a hat on, and yet we don't.

I'm not going to go as far as saying it's impossible. But I think it's fair to ask for *something* that starts backing up claims, and it's fair to question otherwise.

GcluelesswinratesthreadnoobG
12bb/hour X $3/bb X 1,000 hours = $36,000

you are in your own world in thinking that most players who make even half of that $ are sticking around 1/3. i really just don't understand how you don't get this and continually come back to it.
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Old 09-18-2019, 05:17 PM   #24125
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Very few people (if any, although I admit my memory is shot and finding stuff in this thread is hard) have posted a giraffe of 12+bb/hr over a 1000 hour sample size at the 1/3 NL stakes in this thread (FWIW, I'm one of them, although in admittedly much better conditions). I don't think it's too much to ask to have at least a handful of examples to start having something to hang a hat on, and yet we don't.

I'm not going to go as far as saying it's impossible. But I think it's fair to ask for *something* that starts backing up claims, and it's fair to question otherwise.

GcluelesswinratesthreadnoobG
I don't have a dog in this fight and have no interest in arguing for either side but here are my results at 1/2 and 1/3 before I moved up to higher stakes

1/2NL: 826 hrs, +21,026 for 12.73bb/hr
1/3NL: 98 hrs, +5,950 for 20.24bb/hr

Weighted average BB = 2.106

Totals: 924 hours, +26,976 for 13.87bb/hr

https://imgur.com/a/iTJq2y4

sorry its only 924 hours instead of 1k+ but it's all I can provide

now I play higher stakes (barely, almost no volume anymore) and am on a ~700 hour break even stretch. poker, variance, blah blah

also I was bad at poker for a lot of these hours (prob still am) so I was certainly on a heater for those curious.
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