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Old 09-16-2019, 05:27 PM   #24076
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
That's the standard answer.

But I simply don't buy it. The lowest stakes game are real rake traps so unless your game often plays very deep I think it's fair to ask for proof before believing this.

Gnotbuyingwhatyou'resellingG
Occam's razor... it's the standard answer because it's the most logical answer. if someone is even a 10bb/hr winner at 1/2, after 400 hours, they'll have 8k. and they'll hear over and over that 1/2 is a rake trap. why wouldn't they move up to 1/3 or 2/5 if it's available?

you are an outlier in that you have a very large sample size at a low stake. most people who have had your success at 1/3 would be long gone from that stake before coming to within 1/3 of your sample size.
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Old 09-16-2019, 05:33 PM   #24077
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My big sticking point on this is that it's just too much of a market inefficiency.

There are a lot of very smart people in the world and many of them don't make much money. For example, they could be educators, or just people who never got into the corporate world for one reason or another.

Everybody has heard of poker by now and understands it is possible to beat it. Resources for learning the game quickly abound. Also, while playing poker gets old, you make your own hours and for most people it's going to be better than most other jobs.

You don't need a huge BR to get started at 1/2-1/3.

So when people claim you can make like $80k/year, tax free playing 1/3... I just don't think it adds up. If you could, then people would do it until you couldn't.

Not that all these people would become full time 1/3 grinders, but they would at least play part time on the weekends, when the win rate is even higher.
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Old 09-16-2019, 05:51 PM   #24078
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So when people claim you can make like $80k/year, tax free playing 1/3... I just don't think it adds up.
Yeah. I mean, if we saw just a *handful* of graphs in this thread that could support that (even if they were still brushed off as outliers). Just a bunch of people sitting back easily crushing games (heck, even for just 9bb/hr instead of 15bb which I'm sure Mike would admit would be pretty difficult/taxing). But we don't.

But that's probably only because people don't like to brag on the internet. That's probably the reason.

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Old 09-16-2019, 05:54 PM   #24079
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My main point wasnt about win rate ceilings anyway.
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Old 09-16-2019, 06:07 PM   #24080
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My main point wasnt about win rate ceilings anyway.
Either was mine.

(i.e. it's possible Richard isn't doing nearly as "poorly" as he's being conditioned to think he is)

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Old 09-16-2019, 06:20 PM   #24081
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But that's probably only because people don't like to brag on the internet. That's probably the reason.
the internet isn't anywhere near as anonymous as some people think it is - broadcasting huge win rates could end up getting people in some tricky situations
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Old 09-16-2019, 07:40 PM   #24082
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Hi guys,

Just wanted to say thank you all for the feedback and positive responses. It definitely helps me and I appreciate it all!
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Old 09-16-2019, 08:18 PM   #24083
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the internet isn't anywhere near as anonymous as some people think it is
Yep.

Not claiming huge win rates. Just saying that I've been taking the game much more seriously and no longer feel comfortable sharing.

Still averaging between 900 - 1,000 hours a year with full time job (that gives me tons of vacation time).

The game is way beatable in the handful of different markets I play in.

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Old 09-16-2019, 08:48 PM   #24084
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There are a couple of other things I consider besides the ole market/equilibrium thing.

1) The Abyss. Even if you avoid it your whole life, it's part of your true win rate. It's really easy to think that when you had a massive downswing 2 years ago, you weren't playing your A game, or you've started studying harder, so it doesn't count, and your true win rate is this year's. But it does count and it could happen again.

2) So where's your yacht? This is something Limon said regarding online players who thought they could make $600/hr at commerce.

Some elite players do seem to have the lifestyles to match, but it's very rare to see poker players with lifestyles that match lofty win rates.

Not to pick on him, but I used to be a CLP sub and Dave Tuchman would talk about having a win rate north of $100/hr. Which is over $200k/yr and it would be really easy to avoid taxes on much of that.

Then he'd talk about things like buying his first house in his early 30s. So, during your 20s, you made like 2 million playing poker, but you don't have a pot to piss in. Doesn't seem like a guy with a heroin habbit, so... wha happen?

Now, if you mean I can make X/hr between midnight and 4am on a holiday weekend, that's fine. But I think that's a bit deceptive. When you say I can make x/hr grinding poker, most people think you mean playing as a full time job.

This all seems to apply to everyone who doesn't make a set income and has lots of ups and downs. For example, bartenders or servers might tell you they make like $200-300 a night and $500 on weekends, again, in cash. Probably a few do... if you are hot girl, and you got lucky and landed the best job, etc. etc. But I don't believe bar tending is a job where you can expect to consistently hover around 100k.
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Old 09-16-2019, 09:29 PM   #24085
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What's up live regs?
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Old 09-16-2019, 09:32 PM   #24086
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What's up live regs?
fish itt
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Old 09-16-2019, 09:34 PM   #24087
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fish itt
You still sunrunning @ Parx!?
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Old 09-16-2019, 09:35 PM   #24088
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You still sunrunning @ Parx!?
negative on both fronts. #rip
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Old 09-16-2019, 09:39 PM   #24089
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It was beautiful while it lasted
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Old 09-16-2019, 10:05 PM   #24090
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by ES2 View Post
Not to pick on him, but I used to be a CLP sub and Dave Tuchman would talk about having a win rate north of $100/hr. Which is over $200k/yr and it would be really easy to avoid taxes on much of that.



Then he'd talk about things like buying his first house in his early 30s. So, during your 20s, you made like 2 million playing poker, but you don't have a pot to piss in. Doesn't seem like a guy with a heroin habbit, so... wha happen?


No idea about tuckmans game, but buying your 1st house in your 30s isn’t really a qualifier for anything. There are a lot of reasons why people don’t buy houses. It’s debatable if buying is even really a better financial decision than renting.

Additionally, many poker players don’t play close to 2k hours/year
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Old 09-16-2019, 10:33 PM   #24091
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Tuchman's game is super sloppy & oldschool. There's supposed to be new blood coming in to replace Ki & Conlan, so for now, Bart & Rob are the only voices on CLP I trust. Nothing personal against Dave, but I think he'd even admit that he doesn't play much poker now a days. I can certainly see him crushing in the 2003-2013 era though.
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Old 09-17-2019, 08:48 AM   #24092
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Ironically, Bart took a question on renting vs. owning during last night's CL Call-in. He made a case for renting.
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Old 09-17-2019, 09:04 AM   #24093
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My big sticking point on this is that it's just too much of a market inefficiency.

There are a lot of very smart people in the world and many of them don't make much money. For example, they could be educators, or just people who never got into the corporate world for one reason or another.

Everybody has heard of poker by now and understands it is possible to beat it. Resources for learning the game quickly abound. Also, while playing poker gets old, you make your own hours and for most people it's going to be better than most other jobs.

You don't need a huge BR to get started at 1/2-1/3.

So when people claim you can make like $80k/year, tax free playing 1/3... I just don't think it adds up. If you could, then people would do it until you couldn't.

Not that all these people would become full time 1/3 grinders, but they would at least play part time on the weekends, when the win rate is even higher.
So you think any smart person can read a few books, subscribe to a training site and crush 1/3 for whatever win rate 1/3 can be crushed for? That is completely ridiculous.

Not a chance in hell.

As a whole, the books and videos are laughable for live poker. Some are good obviously but there's a lot more of it that's totally outdated. What's worse is that most people misapply what they learn.

As a general rule, very few people have patience and discipline needed for high level poker. No matter how smart they are. They cant even concentrate long enough to put their phones down and watch the hands they aren't in. Smart people are no different.

People want instant gratification. I dont care how many books you read or training websites you subscribe to. It takes 1000s of hours of playing actual live poker to get to crusher level. People don't want to put in the work. Most people would lose for a while or win at a very low rate for quite a long time when they start out. You cant just take a smart person give him some books and say "there you go...now you can make $80K playing 1/3". Your theory of people doing it so easily is ridiculous but just because it cant be done so easily by any smart person doesnt mean it cant be done. Its being done.

Even most people posting here just want to play a basic strategy that will allow them to win a decent amount. They don't want to open their minds and push things. Its uncomfortable. Those people will never ever become crushers and because they aren't doing it they think is cant be done.

I happen to be the opposite. I wonder how high the ceiling really is and what can I do to get there.
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Old 09-17-2019, 09:40 AM   #24094
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Mike can certainly come across as abrasive, but I'm in his camp on this one. It takes a very specific type of personality to succeed in live poker and being 'smart' is only a small portion of it.

You hear the same talk in all industries. Oh I could easily make *large amounts of money* in *insert industry here* like you do. It's just not true and it's usually insulting to people who are achieving at a high level.

The other thing about poker specifically is risk of ruin. It's true you don't need a big bankroll to get started, but you can certainly go broke if you don't get up to speed quickly. Similar to why 90% of startups fail. It's very hard and not everyone can do it.

Marsh
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Old 09-17-2019, 09:43 AM   #24095
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
So you think any smart person can read a few books, subscribe to a training site and crush 1/3 for whatever win rate 1/3 can be crushed for? That is completely ridiculous.

Not a chance in hell.

As a whole, the books and videos are laughable for live poker. Some are good obviously but there's a lot more of it that's totally outdated. What's worse is that most people misapply what they learn.

As a general rule, very few people have patience and discipline needed for high level poker. No matter how smart they are. They cant even concentrate long enough to put their phones down and watch the hands they aren't in. Smart people are no different.

People want instant gratification. I dont care how many books you read or training websites you subscribe to. It takes 1000s of hours of playing actual live poker to get to crusher level. People don't want to put in the work. Most people would lose for a while or win at a very low rate for quite a long time when they start out. You cant just take a smart person give him some books and say "there you go...now you can make $80K playing 1/3". Your theory of people doing it so easily is ridiculous but just because it cant be done so easily by any smart person doesnt mean it cant be done. Its being done.

Even most people posting here just want to play a basic strategy that will allow them to win a decent amount. They don't want to open their minds and push things. Its uncomfortable. Those people will never ever become crushers and because they aren't doing it they think is cant be done.

I happen to be the opposite. I wonder how high the ceiling really is and what can I do to get there.

Another +1, excellent work Mike. I will say that i truly believe you have become one of the best resources on this forum for livepoker over time in my opinion, especially considering you are posting consistenly several days a week- often everyday.

Also i would like to add lack of a balanced mind/tilt control regarding your post above. Very very few people have the ability to keep playing well against players who is sitting on their money right beside them, maybe after taking a bad beat or three. Maybe they can push themselfes to do it one or two nights in a row, but if the bad run continues they simply cant take the pain. They either go on a period where they lose their entire roll, or they simply dissapear from the games. Many players i know play very fine when they are sunrunning and cant bring themself to have a losing game- its when the bad run starts to come you see what people are made of.

You cant read yourself to having a balanced mind/body regarding to grinding poker over a longer timespan.You either have it or you dont in my opinion, even though you can exercise your pain threshold quite a bit- but the foundation of wanting to deal with it have to be there regarding your post about putting in the work.
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Old 09-17-2019, 11:37 AM   #24096
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Ironically, Bart took a question on renting vs. owning during last night's CL Call-in. He made a case for renting.


I didn’t listen to that but from my own due diligence it’s a lot closer than most people realize. Granted, I own, but that’s mostly because my wife still has money ideas from the 1950s, so the added hassle of dealing with my wife actually factors in
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Old 09-17-2019, 11:47 AM   #24097
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I didn’t listen to that but from my own due diligence it’s a lot closer than most people realize. Granted, I own, but that’s mostly because my wife still has money ideas from the 1950s, so the added hassle of dealing with my wife actually factors in
Hahaha.

I'm on the other side primarily for portfolio diversification, tax benefits. Much depends on the individual market. I invested in the Southern California market in the late 90's, so that factors into my pov.
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Old 09-17-2019, 12:47 PM   #24098
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So you think any smart person can read a few books, subscribe to a training site and crush 1/3 for whatever win rate 1/3 can be crushed for? That is completely ridiculous.



Not a chance in hell.



As a whole, the books and videos are laughable for live poker. Some are good obviously but there's a lot more of it that's totally outdated. What's worse is that most people misapply what they learn.



As a general rule, very few people have patience and discipline needed for high level poker. No matter how smart they are. They cant even concentrate long enough to put their phones down and watch the hands they aren't in. Smart people are no different.



People want instant gratification. I dont care how many books you read or training websites you subscribe to. It takes 1000s of hours of playing actual live poker to get to crusher level. People don't want to put in the work. Most people would lose for a while or win at a very low rate for quite a long time when they start out. You cant just take a smart person give him some books and say "there you go...now you can make $80K playing 1/3". Your theory of people doing it so easily is ridiculous but just because it cant be done so easily by any smart person doesnt mean it cant be done. Its being done.



Even most people posting here just want to play a basic strategy that will allow them to win a decent amount. They don't want to open their minds and push things. Its uncomfortable. Those people will never ever become crushers and because they aren't doing it they think is cant be done.



I happen to be the opposite. I wonder how high the ceiling really is and what can I do to get there.
Long time lurker here. Fantastic post Mike, I totally agree with you on this one. I have always questioned myself the same, I think the ceiling is very high but for the most people not Worth the time and work they have to invest into it. The 99% of winning regs and rec players will stick to their basic strategies forever, happy to grind their 5bb/hour and eventually someday get bored and quit the games. What do you think are the skill that separate a standard winning reg to a Crusher? Also what are the skills that a player can obtain in thousands of hours of grind that will elevate him to Crusher level.

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Old 09-17-2019, 12:55 PM   #24099
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Is it fair to ask what proof there is that long time crushers actually exist?

Git'safairquestion,right?G
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Old 09-17-2019, 01:08 PM   #24100
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I have a house, a wife, a daughter, a dog, a full time job, and try to do things in life other than play poker and be responsible. I don't have time anymore to be anything better than a solid winner. If I were a crusher, I'd probably be a bad Dad. A bad person entirely. It's not about will, attention span, or discomfort for many of us.

I put in quite a bit of work before 2017-18 though and have a boatload of live experience. Still pretty ****ing easy to be a solid winner today.
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