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Old 09-06-2019, 02:03 PM   #24051
AAJTo
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by crsseyed View Post
By my count you have 18 losing days and 15 winning days, so yeah, should have less. Especially for a tight player. Winning players should have >60% winning days.
I dont think this is anywhere close to being true. If you play the type of TAG where you are bluffing a lot you are going to have bigger swings but much bigger profit like he is showing. Stick to what is working.
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Old 09-06-2019, 02:36 PM   #24052
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I dont think this is anywhere close to being true. If you play the type of TAG where you are bluffing a lot you are going to have bigger swings but much bigger profit like he is showing. Stick to what is working.
Is it really working that well? By my count hes at about $19-$20/hr at 2/5. Or at least its about $19-$20/hr since the 500 hr mark where he sent he started playing 2/5. I guess there's some PLO and maybe other things in there as well.
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Old 09-06-2019, 05:08 PM   #24053
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Is it really working that well? By my count hes at about $19-$20/hr at 2/5. Or at least its about $19-$20/hr since the 500 hr mark where he sent he started playing 2/5. I guess there's some PLO and maybe other things in there as well.
Only 3~ players at any given table are winners so I would say he is doing good.
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Old 09-06-2019, 07:41 PM   #24054
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Originally Posted by AAJTo View Post
Only 3~ players at any given table are winners so I would say he is doing good.
Id say its less that 3 players per table on avg. Ive always heard 90% or so of players lose money.

So sure he's doing good. I'm just saying we don't want to just stick to doing good (4BB/hr). We want to improve to doing very good or great.
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Old 09-06-2019, 11:06 PM   #24055
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What do you guys think about someone who is a rec player who plays like 2-3x/ week but takes the game serious who wins 5-6bb/hr over 1300 hours?
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Old 09-07-2019, 12:38 AM   #24056
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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What do you guys think about someone who is a rec player who plays like 2-3x/ week but takes the game serious who wins 5-6bb/hr over 1300 hours?


I’d think it’s a rec player who takes the game seriously. I’m not sure what you’re looking for. Do you want encouragement that you’re doing it correctly or something?
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Old 09-07-2019, 12:53 PM   #24057
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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What do you guys think about someone who is a rec player who plays like 2-3x/ week but takes the game serious who wins 5-6bb/hr over 1300 hours?
It's really what you think of yourself, not what anyone else thinks, that matters. Are you happy with your current situation?

Obviously we've all heard of players making 10 bb/hr. (or more); do you want to reach that level? If so, what do you need to do to get there?

But yeah you're doing well so far, if that's what you wanna hear.
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Old 09-07-2019, 05:52 PM   #24058
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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What do you guys think about someone who is a rec player who plays like 2-3x/ week but takes the game serious who wins 5-6bb/hr over 1300 hours?
Sounds like someone who has quite a profitable hobby.
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Old 09-08-2019, 02:57 AM   #24059
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Any pro or semi-pros who pay quarterly taxes please let me know what you think.

So I too have to pay quarterly taxes on my poker and nonpoker income (for my day job I am an independent contractor and no taxes are taken out of my paychecks). I understand the quarterly tax is based on estimated expected earnings for the year. How do I do this when poker income represents most of my wages? As we know, poker can be a highly variable way to earn a living, especially when (as with me) you are gradually moving up in stakes.

Anyone who has done this tax estimate already, what did you base it on?

Thanks,
DT
The rule used to be there were no penalties for underpayment so long as you paid estimates equal to 100% of prior year tax. (Used to be less than 100% I think, then I think was 110% at some point.) Even if last year tax was $1000 and this year tax bill is $10,000. If you paid quarterly estimates of $250, you’d be good.

That’s still one of options in figuring if you look at the rules but they give another criteria and here as in poker “it depends”. Easiest thing is to google IRS form and instructions for filing quarterly estimates. Explains it better than I can.
Form 1040 ES

You don’t have to estimate whole year tax and divide by 4. You can adjust your estimate each quarter for those with income that fluctuates during the year - poker players obviously.

Actually rereading the IRS I think you can still use the 100% of prior year tax as an estimate. If this is less than what you think this year tax will be, then obviously that’s better better for you.

Last edited by RJT; 09-08-2019 at 03:07 AM.
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Old 09-09-2019, 08:57 AM   #24060
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by RJT View Post
The rule used to be there were no penalties for underpayment so long as you paid estimates equal to 100% of prior year tax. (Used to be less than 100% I think, then I think was 110% at some point.) Even if last year tax was $1000 and this year tax bill is $10,000. If you paid quarterly estimates of $250, you’d be good.

That’s still one of options in figuring if you look at the rules but they give another criteria and here as in poker “it depends”. Easiest thing is to google IRS form and instructions for filing quarterly estimates. Explains it better than I can.
Form 1040 ES

You don’t have to estimate whole year tax and divide by 4. You can adjust your estimate each quarter for those with income that fluctuates during the year - poker players obviously.

Actually rereading the IRS I think you can still use the 100% of prior year tax as an estimate. If this is less than what you think this year tax will be, then obviously that’s better better for you.
You can either use 100% of last year or 90% of this year -- and as RJT says, you can adjust quarter to quarter as needed. If you're in a period where your earnings are increasing, simplest that leaves you withheld the least is 100% of last year. Just make sure you save enough to pay the tax bill come April if your earnings go up drastically year over year (i.e. don't buy an expensive car...)
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Old 09-09-2019, 11:14 AM   #24061
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard32 View Post
What do you guys think about someone who is a rec player who plays like 2-3x/ week but takes the game serious who wins 5-6bb/hr over 1300 hours?
He's probably doing better than most realize, especially if he's playing at the lowest steaks rake trap.

GIwouldsnapaccept6bb/hrgoingintoanyyearnowadaysG
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Old 09-15-2019, 09:00 PM   #24062
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Hi guys,

Looking for feedback here:

I usually play around 70-80 hours a month.

I take the game seriously for sure and looking to improve.

I definitely think I’m results oriented/ get too upset when I see my winrate decline/ not achieve the bb/hr I want after like 1300+ hours of live play.

Currently in a break even stretch now/ slightly profitable over like my last 90 hours and it’s frustrating.

Feels like it’s going on forever. Any mindset tips or just tips in general?
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Old 09-15-2019, 09:38 PM   #24063
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Try to keep focusing on making the right plays. And if you feel your self doubting your self, post a hand or three and see if people would have played it the same way.

Good luck.
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Old 09-15-2019, 10:24 PM   #24064
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

There’s no way to get out of a stretch like this without playing more. If you are a winner things will turn around soon enough. Just have confidence and play your best and keep in mind the long term. Gl!
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Old 09-16-2019, 08:24 AM   #24065
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Originally Posted by Richard32 View Post
Hi guys,

Looking for feedback here:

I usually play around 70-80 hours a month.

I take the game seriously for sure and looking to improve.

I definitely think I’m results oriented/ get too upset when I see my winrate decline/ not achieve the bb/hr I want after like 1300+ hours of live play.

Currently in a break even stretch now/ slightly profitable over like my last 90 hours and it’s frustrating.

Feels like it’s going on forever. Any mindset tips or just tips in general?
Re: mindset -- keep in mind 90 hours is a drop in the long-run bucket. At live poker that's around 2700 hands, and I think around 100K hands is the point where winrate is fairly converged/you can have a good sense of whether and how much you're winning. I didn't answer your previous post but what I'd say about 1300 hours at 5.5bb/hour is that you are likelier than not a winner, but we have a tough time saying by how much (or even with 100% certainty that you are a winner).

The other problem, especially with live poker, is that because the hands come so slowly, the ecosystem moves with you -- and you move, too. You're presumably improving by reading on here, thinking about hands, and so on -- so your winrate should theoretically be increasing. Depending on lineups at your casinos and when you play, your winrate might be better or worse (e.g. Fridays and Saturdays tend to be softer in most places, so if you're playing then you might me less able to beat Tuesdays, and so on).

So that's the mindset -- 90 hours is suuuuper small. I played about the same number of hands online in the last three days in about six hours, and that's at a site where I can only four table because there just isn't enough liquidity in games and so on -- once upon a time in the heyday, I could play around 1,000 hands/hour at 10-12 tables.
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Old 09-16-2019, 09:08 AM   #24066
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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Try to keep focusing on making the right plays. And if you feel your self doubting your self, post a hand or three and see if people would have played it the same way.

Good luck.
Im sure this will piss plenty of people off like usual, but the problem is that most people think they are making the right plays but they aren't.

We all know there is plenty of variance in poker. If you are a 5BB/hr winner long term, you will go thru streteches of breaking even and stretches where you win 10BB+/hr. If you stick to your strategy, whatever it is, the cards will turn around and if you make the "right plays" you will converge back to around your 5BB win rate over time.

However, when you open your mind and figure out that your strategy is not "right" and there are many way to increase your win rate and you start experimenting with new things, that is when you will get better results. It boggles my mind that there are so many people posting here that are 100% convinced that the lines they take are the best lines and nobody can convince them otherwise.

Whatever your win rate is, it can be better. At least until you get into the 10-15BB/hr range.

For 1/2, if you're not over 15BB/hr you're not close to making the "right" plays. Sure, if you're winning anything at all you're doing better than most and if you're winning 5-8BB/hr you're well on your way and should be proud but you should also always be looking to get better and find ways to increase your win rate, not posting absolutes in the strat forum because you are making all kinds of mistakes without even knowing it.

For 2/5, if you're not over 12BB/hr, you're not close to making the "right" plays.

For 5/10, if you're not over 10BB/hr, you're not close to making the right plays.

Some people are happy to make $35/hr at 2/5 and they should be. Thats pretty damned good. When I was a $35/hr winner at 2/5 I was happy too, but I was also always looking for new lines and new exploits to win more.

The "my way is the best and only way" attitude in most strat threads is old and tired especially when it comes from people who arent beating the game for 12+BB/hr.

PS...this is in no way meant to mean that my way is the best way. That's my whole point. We should always be looking to figure out what other people are doing better than we are and adding that to our games. Very few people know that the "right" plays are because most hands don't have a "right" line.
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Old 09-16-2019, 09:18 AM   #24067
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Tl;dr for the above:

Most people dont play optimally so keep looking at what you're doing and try to continuously improve.
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Old 09-16-2019, 09:27 AM   #24068
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Im sure this will piss plenty of people off like usual, but the problem is that most people think they are making the right plays but they aren't.

We all know there is plenty of variance in poker. If you are a 5BB/hr winner long term, you will go thru streteches of breaking even and stretches where you win 10BB+/hr. If you stick to your strategy, whatever it is, the cards will turn around and if you make the "right plays" you will converge back to around your 5BB win rate over time.

However, when you open your mind and figure out that your strategy is not "right" and there are many way to increase your win rate and you start experimenting with new things, that is when you will get better results. It boggles my mind that there are so many people posting here that are 100% convinced that the lines they take are the best lines and nobody can convince them otherwise.

Whatever your win rate is, it can be better. At least until you get into the 10-15BB/hr range.

For 1/2, if you're not over 15BB/hr you're not close to making the "right" plays. Sure, if you're winning anything at all you're doing better than most and if you're winning 5-8BB/hr you're well on your way and should be proud but you should also always be looking to get better and find ways to increase your win rate, not posting absolutes in the strat forum because you are making all kinds of mistakes without even knowing it.

For 2/5, if you're not over 12BB/hr, you're not close to making the "right" plays.

For 5/10, if you're not over 10BB/hr, you're not close to making the right plays.

Some people are happy to make $35/hr at 2/5 and they should be. Thats pretty damned good. When I was a $35/hr winner at 2/5 I was happy too, but I was also always looking for new lines and new exploits to win more.

The "my way is the best and only way" attitude in most strat threads is old and tired especially when it comes from people who arent beating the game for 12+BB/hr.

PS...this is in no way meant to mean that my way is the best way. That's my whole point. We should always be looking to figure out what other people are doing better than we are and adding that to our games. Very few people know that the "right" plays are because most hands don't have a "right" line.

Very good post, +1.
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Old 09-16-2019, 11:34 AM   #24069
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard32 View Post
Hi guys,

Looking for feedback here:

I usually play around 70-80 hours a month.

I take the game seriously for sure and looking to improve.

I definitely think I’m results oriented/ get too upset when I see my winrate decline/ not achieve the bb/hr I want after like 1300+ hours of live play.

Currently in a break even stretch now/ slightly profitable over like my last 90 hours and it’s frustrating.

Feels like it’s going on forever. Any mindset tips or just tips in general?
Try not to sweat it too much, especially as a rec player. After all, it's supposed to be an enjoyable hobby (is there really any other reason to play if you've got a good paying job?). And you're winning. Don't beat yourself up too much.

As for Mike's post above, I'll let you dig thru this thread yourself and find all the significant sample sizes of 15bb/hr at 1/2 (hint: don't knock yourself out too hard trying to find a single one, cuz you won't). Not saying it's impossible. Just saying attempting to compare anything you do to the top 0.01% is sorta gonna set yourself up for failure.

GgoodluckG
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Old 09-16-2019, 03:08 PM   #24070
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hey guys currently trying to grind out 1/3 with a day job that allows me to save/replenish bankroll if needed.

I have a quick question: when people say hey you should have 20 buy ins to take a shot at 2/5, do they mean a max buy in ($1k most places) or 100 BB ($500)

My plan is to slowly transition to 2/5 and eventually (assuming my results are good enough) move to Vegas to play so just trying to budget and keep expenses low.

Do most people at 2/5 max buy in for the $1k or $500? If I do buy in with $500 would I feel “short”.

Just looking for insight from people who have taken shots at 2/5 what they consider a “buy in” 100 BB or max?

Thanks in advance
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Old 09-16-2019, 03:26 PM   #24071
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Originally Posted by TonySoprano View Post
Hey guys currently trying to grind out 1/3 with a day job that allows me to save/replenish bankroll if needed.

I have a quick question: when people say hey you should have 20 buy ins to take a shot at 2/5, do they mean a max buy in ($1k most places) or 100 BB ($500)

My plan is to slowly transition to 2/5 and eventually (assuming my results are good enough) move to Vegas to play so just trying to budget and keep expenses low.

Do most people at 2/5 max buy in for the $1k or $500? If I do buy in with $500 would I feel “short”.

Just looking for insight from people who have taken shots at 2/5 what they consider a “buy in” 100 BB or max?

Thanks in advance
I believe $10k is enough to shot-take at 2/5 regardless of if you're buying in at $500 or $1k. You should be fairly willing to drop back down, though, and only play in the 2/5 if the lineup is soft -- if you sit in the 2/5 and discover it's filled with tough regs 3-betting then you're going to have a more variant time than you would at the 1/2. The other thing is if 2/5 is getting a lot of straddles you're going to be basically playing 5/10, which $10k isn't enough for really, so be careful.

It's a balancing act -- in a super soft 2/5 game, you could play it even if it's somewhat aggressive or straddled frequently. In a tougher 2/5 game you probably need a longer roll.
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Old 09-16-2019, 03:29 PM   #24072
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySoprano View Post
Hey guys currently trying to grind out 1/3 with a day job that allows me to save/replenish bankroll if needed.

I have a quick question: when people say hey you should have 20 buy ins to take a shot at 2/5, do they mean a max buy in ($1k most places) or 100 BB ($500)

My plan is to slowly transition to 2/5 and eventually (assuming my results are good enough) move to Vegas to play so just trying to budget and keep expenses low.

Do most people at 2/5 max buy in for the $1k or $500? If I do buy in with $500 would I feel “short”.

Just looking for insight from people who have taken shots at 2/5 what they consider a “buy in” 100 BB or max?

Thanks in advance
you have a day job - worry less about "how much BR do i need to play 2/5" and worry more about getting comfortable playing at $5 blind levels. play it when it looks good. the rake is usually much cheaper which is one less thing you need to worry about when trying to beat the game.
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Old 09-16-2019, 04:33 PM   #24073
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Try not to sweat it too much, especially as a rec player. After all, it's supposed to be an enjoyable hobby (is there really any other reason to play if you've got a good paying job?). And you're winning. Don't beat yourself up too much.

As for Mike's post above, I'll let you dig thru this thread yourself and find all the significant sample sizes of 15bb/hr at 1/2 (hint: don't knock yourself out too hard trying to find a single one, cuz you won't). Not saying it's impossible. Just saying attempting to compare anything you do to the top 0.01% is sorta gonna set yourself up for failure.

GgoodluckG
You wont find hardly any significant samples of 1/2 at 15BB win rate because people who are that good move up to 2/5 before they get what you would call a significant sample.

Also, the majority of the best poker players don't post here at all and they sure don't post graphs. They may post here for a while but as they get better and better there's less and less for them to learn here and they stop posting.

I can guarantee you if there was some sort of prop bet to make it worth their while, that the best 2/5 players could move back to 1/2 and destroy it for over 15BB/hr. I'm 100% sure of that.

I also have no doubt that you are experienced enough and can narrow people's ranges well enough that you could significantly increase your own win rate if you really wanted to. You don't want to step out of your comfort zone and I'm not hating on you for that. Its fine. But that is what is limiting you and makes you think these win rates I posted are impossible to reach.

Nobody should be trying to compare themselves to a 1/2 15BB/hr crusher or a 2/5 12BB/hr crusher. Its just going to make you feel bad about yourself. But what you should be doing if you want to get better is watching these guys and trying to figure out what they are doing that you're not doing. Whether its bluffing more, over betting certain boards, down betting, raising speculative hands, 3 betting more often. Whatever it is, you can bet those guys arent following strict preflop hand charts and things like that.
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Old 09-16-2019, 05:04 PM   #24074
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You wont find hardly any significant samples of 1/2 at 15BB win rate because people who are that good move up to 2/5 before they get what you would call a significant sample.
That's the standard answer.

But I simply don't buy it. The lowest stakes game are real rake traps so unless your game often plays very deep I think it's fair to ask for proof before believing this.

Gnotbuyingwhatyou'resellingG
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Old 09-16-2019, 05:08 PM   #24075
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I could post a 7-800 hr graph but I'm sure you'll say that's not significant. The 1/2 games in my room are not even close to deep. Half the table buys in for $60-$100. Id be willing to bet that I haven't won more than 3-5 hands of 1/2 where we were over 100BBs deep.

Last edited by MikeStarr; 09-16-2019 at 05:21 PM.
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