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Old 09-01-2019, 12:56 PM   #24026
browni3141
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Seems indicative of a pretty big leak to get it in good 22/22.
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Old 09-01-2019, 03:47 PM   #24027
MikeStarr
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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
Seems indicative of a pretty big leak to get it in good 22/22.
Right at the end of that streak, I did get it in on the flop with QQ vs KK and rivered a Q and that flipped a switch to end the drubbing. I guess I need to get it in bad more often.
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Old 09-01-2019, 04:26 PM   #24028
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Right at the end of that streak, I did get it in on the flop with QQ vs KK and rivered a Q and that flipped a switch to end the drubbing. I guess I need to get it in bad more often.
Non-jokingly, yes, you should be getting it in bad more often.
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Old 09-01-2019, 05:20 PM   #24029
MikeStarr
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Non-jokingly, yes, you should be getting it in bad more often.
I know what you're talking about. I just happened to go on a run over 10 or so sessions where I had a lot of good hands and got action on them so when I got all in I was ahead most of the time and flipping a few times. That's not to say I never get my money in behind. I also jammed a decent number of hands with draws or pairs and draws but nobody ever called so I was never behind during that short tretch.
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Old 09-05-2019, 07:47 PM   #24030
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hey everyone,
Hoping to get some help on some graph analysis. Here is the full picture since last November:


Started out at 1/2 NL ($200 cap buy in) and switched to 2/5 NL around the 500 hour mark. Would buy in for $500 and played what others would make fun of me as a 'very nitty' style. Can't really remember when I started buying in for the 'max' of $1000.

My monthly goals are $4000 and here is the breakdown since March:
March $5700
April $5100
May -$6669 (First negative month. I had -$3500 in 1 hour when a maniac blind shoved on me 3 times and I lost all 3.)
June $7148
July $6037
August -$438

Here is a breakdown of my daily results for July for an example of my ups and downs per day (200 total hours):
-$1,779
-$52
$2,975
$242
$112
-$460
$1,256
$647
$427
-$135
-$80
-$2,153
$382
-$380
$5,140 (I spun it up in our 5/5 PLO game. This is definitely an outlier. But almost every month I have one big session of $2-3k in holdem so this month isn't too different. I chose not to show August or June because we had a tournament series in one of them and I went to Vegas for a week in the other. This was all at 'home' with nothing special going on.)
$207
-$1,257
-$1,277
$244
$1,481
-$1,474
-$739
-$203
-$798
-$182
$1,400
$1,162
$401
-$350
$921
-$771
-$1,083
$2,213

I bring $2500 with me for each session and if I happen to bust (has happened 3 times in 10 months I think) I just go home. I don't have a 'stop win' or anything. And I rarely push past 8-9 hours of play in any session. I just get tired and I know I can play tomorrow. I also try and grind 'normal' hours. I play from afternoon til about midnight most nights, including weekends.

If you've followed any of my hand histories, I usually play too tight and probably fold a lot of winners or don't put enough pressure on people. I've been trying to open my game up more and play more aggressive in position and I think that could be why daily high/low distribution is higher in the past few months. (So I have more wins over $2k and more losses over $1500 compared to my earlier months.)

I've gotten to know some of the local grinders and, as you can imagine, we haven't really gotten close enough to discuss win rates or swings or anything like that. I do know that some of the guys really only play 5/5 PLO and that only runs on the weekends. I've heard rumors of $50k up swing during a tournament series and last labor day weekend the same guy was down $12k. We have a super crazy deep/maniac PLO game so it's not anywhere near comparable to the 2/5 game. But the 2/5 can get deep as it's table stakes and can match the big stack.


So all that to say, does anyone notice anything weird? I'm obviously hitting an overall even stretch and it could be because the small player pool is getting used to me. The weekday games are lots of the same regulars. Or maybe that's just how I'm running? Maybe I'm getting worse? I don't really suffer from tilt issues.

Does anyone think I should have less 'losing days'?

Should I tighten up and buy in for $500 again and only really play value hand poker like when I first transitioned to 2/5?

Or is it weird that I can be up $2k in a day but my overall is only $6000? So I could be up $1800 going into my last weekend and literally make or break my month in a couple of sessions. Does anyone else have months like that?

I dunno. Just looking for some comparison advice. I loosely follow Dumbos Trunk and we have similar month ends, but it seems like he has micro wins and losses compared to me. I know he short stacks, but it makes me think there are big problems with my game.

Marsh
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Old 09-05-2019, 08:04 PM   #24031
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Poker is a swingy game not sure what else to tell you. Also this is the internet so don’t believe everything you read.
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Old 09-05-2019, 08:41 PM   #24032
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Came across your post MarshMan because I wanted to post a tax question here lol. You're looking good! Sorry you lost those AIs against that maniac, that will put a dent in your winrate temporarily. Just nit it up and keep playing a solid value-heavy game and you'll come out ahead. You don't need to bluff a lot to have a solid hourly. You know how I play...just waiting for monster hands preflop basically and 3!/GII, trying to setmine for good price, folding everything else, even "playable" speculative and trouble hands like T9s and KQo.

I have an artificially low stop loss of around $600 or so, so my swings are much smaller than those of players who buy in deeper. I consider this an asset of my BR management, and it also helps me sleep better at night knowing I didn't lose a ton of money any given session. A local pro once said that it's important to limit your big losses, and from a BR management POV he's right. Plus, if I lost much more I know I would be really bummed out; emotional stability is important to me personally due to mental health considerations. I also tend to book wins when I am up, and I rarely will end up losing most of my winnings once I am up. I do not fall into the trap of loosening up when I am winning. However, that being said I am more likely to gamble on my first buy in, e.g., GII with AK pre.

Basically, keep it up. Also, nice giraffe! As you can see for yourself it is trending in the right direction, so you shouldn't be worried. If you want, plug in your BB/hr. and standard deviation into primedope's variance calculator to get an idea of your predicated results. I did and I was happy with what I found. Gl! Now I can make my tax post lol.

Last edited by DumbosTrunk; 09-05-2019 at 08:57 PM.
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Old 09-05-2019, 08:46 PM   #24033
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Any pro or semi-pros who pay quarterly taxes please let me know what you think.

So I too have to pay quarterly taxes on my poker and nonpoker income (for my day job I am an independent contractor and no taxes are taken out of my paychecks). I understand the quarterly tax is based on estimated expected earnings for the year. How do I do this when poker income represents most of my wages? As we know, poker can be a highly variable way to earn a living, especially when (as with me) you are gradually moving up in stakes.

Anyone who has done this tax estimate already, what did you base it on?

Thanks,
DT
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Old 09-05-2019, 08:50 PM   #24034
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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
Any pro or semi-pros who pay quarterly taxes please let me know what you think.

So I have to pay quarterly taxes on my poker and nonpoker income (for my day job I am an independent contractor and no taxes are taken out of my paychecks). I understand the quarterly tax is based on estimated expected earnings for the year. How do I do this when poker income represents most of my wages? As we know, poker can be a highly variable way to earn a living, especially when (as with me) you are gradually moving up in stakes.

Anyone who has done this tax estimate already, what did you base it on?

Thanks,
DT
You should have some idea what your hourly win rate is. Estimate how many hours you will play for the year. Multiply win rate times # of hours and you get an estimate of how much you will win for the year. Use that number along with your other earnings to pay your quarterly taxes.

Obviously, you may owe more or get a refund depending on your actual results at the end of the year.
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Old 09-05-2019, 09:01 PM   #24035
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Poker is a swingy game not sure what else to tell you. Also this is the internet so don’t believe everything you read.
If you are implying that I report false results, you're being ludicrous. That would mean I spend on average several hours a week to keep a poker journal just so people will believe that I (as anonymous as I am) am a winning player.

Get real!

Last edited by DumbosTrunk; 09-05-2019 at 09:09 PM.
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Old 09-05-2019, 09:10 PM   #24036
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
You should have some idea what your hourly win rate is. Estimate how many hours you will play for the year. Multiply win rate times # of hours and you get an estimate of how much you will win for the year. Use that number along with your other earnings to pay your quarterly taxes.

Obviously, you may owe more or get a refund depending on your actual results at the end of the year.
Will I be penalized for underreporting, in case I run really good and make more than I estimated? Or will I simply owe the difference?
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Old 09-05-2019, 09:19 PM   #24037
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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
Will I be penalized for underreporting, in case I run really good and make more than I estimated? Or will I simply owe the difference?
do you think you would be penalized for under reporting if you won the lottery?
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Old 09-05-2019, 09:43 PM   #24038
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Looking at that graph ... not much really stands out. You're winning. It's a little swingy, but whatever.

I'd compare $/hr winrates between the $1/2 and $2/5 games, because it doesn't look like you're doing that much better in the larger game. That might mean that you need to adjust your strategy, and it might mean that you should play $1/2 instead of $2/5 because there's a drunk guy sitting there spewing chips. Or because the guys sitting at $1/2 are just terrible.
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Old 09-05-2019, 10:06 PM   #24039
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
If you are implying that I report false results, you're being ludicrous. That would mean I spend on average several hours a week to keep a poker journal just so people will believe that I (as anonymous as I am) am a winning player.

Get real!
It doesn't look like he's implying that at all. I think he's saying that in reference to when you compare your results to the results other people claim to have.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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Old 09-05-2019, 10:10 PM   #24040
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
Any pro or semi-pros who pay quarterly taxes please let me know what you think.

So I too have to pay quarterly taxes on my poker and nonpoker income (for my day job I am an independent contractor and no taxes are taken out of my paychecks). I understand the quarterly tax is based on estimated expected earnings for the year. How do I do this when poker income represents most of my wages? As we know, poker can be a highly variable way to earn a living, especially when (as with me) you are gradually moving up in stakes.

Anyone who has done this tax estimate already, what did you base it on?

Thanks,
DT
You don't have to find a CPA, but I'd suggest it. I heard a podcast on Kondler's website (Advertise as 'Poker CPAs' at WSOP events) that the best thing to do is to incorporate yourself. I found a local CPA who spent some time with me explaining the difference between Inc, LLC, and personal (DBA). He came to the same conclusion that incorporating is the best thing to save money.

He also said it was some PITA (pain in the ass) work to get it done. He wasn't wrong. I'm fairly smart (graduated from college with a mechanical engineering degree) and it is a huge benefit having someone say 'go to this website and fill out this form and submit it.'

If you can figure all the tax stuff out yourself more power to you. But it sounds like you have a decently complicated scenario that could benefit from personal service.

All that to say, just estimate it and adjust as necessary. And keep unbelievable records on anything and everything.

Marsh
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Old 09-06-2019, 05:28 AM   #24041
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Originally Posted by MarshMan114 View Post
You don't have to find a CPA, but I'd suggest it. I heard a podcast on Kondler's website (Advertise as 'Poker CPAs' at WSOP events) that the best thing to do is to incorporate yourself. I found a local CPA who spent some time with me explaining the difference between Inc, LLC, and personal (DBA). He came to the same conclusion that incorporating is the best thing to save money.

He also said it was some PITA (pain in the ass) work to get it done. He wasn't wrong. I'm fairly smart (graduated from college with a mechanical engineering degree) and it is a huge benefit having someone say 'go to this website and fill out this form and submit it.'

If you can figure all the tax stuff out yourself more power to you. But it sounds like you have a decently complicated scenario that could benefit from personal service.

All that to say, just estimate it and adjust as necessary. And keep unbelievable records on anything and everything.

Marsh
I am kinda at the mercy of my poker income app for this. I wonder how I can back up its data so if I lose the app or my phone I don't lose all that info?
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Old 09-06-2019, 07:17 AM   #24042
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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
I am kinda at the mercy of my poker income app for this. I wonder how I can back up its data so if I lose the app or my phone I don't lose all that info?
Yeah I use excel and manually enter what I want. This includes mileage and expenses. Hopefully your app has a function to export in a CSV file that you can import into excel as a back up. I haven’t used any of the poker apps so I’m not positive on any functionality.
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Old 09-06-2019, 08:20 AM   #24043
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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
I am kinda at the mercy of my poker income app for this. I wonder how I can back up its data so if I lose the app or my phone I don't lose all that info?
i just play for fun and i use a poker app (RunGood, I highly recommend) that i export every 4-6 months and i update a separate excel spreadsheet after every 3-5ish sessions. both those tasks take roughly 10 minutes, tops. i don't understand how this is basically your job and you aren't doing anything more than inputting stuff into your phone and assuming you're all good.

and if you are using Poker Income, there is an export function
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Old 09-06-2019, 09:24 AM   #24044
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i just play for fun and i use a poker app (RunGood, I highly recommend) that i export every 4-6 months and i update a separate excel spreadsheet after every 3-5ish sessions. both those tasks take roughly 10 minutes, tops. i don't understand how this is basically your job and you aren't doing anything more than inputting stuff into your phone and assuming you're all good.

and if you are using Poker Income, there is an export function
Thanks just found it.
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Old 09-06-2019, 10:46 AM   #24045
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I'm just a rec player in a country that doesn't even tax poker winnings, but even I have my poker results in two different places (PokerJournal and Excel) and email myself the Excel file every so often for extra backup purposes. I also manually enter in the results in both places (not copy), where comparing end results will catch any entry errors.

GbackingupmybackupG
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Old 09-06-2019, 11:25 AM   #24046
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If you want a middle ground between Excel and an App, you can use Google Sheets. Easily accessible on your phone from anywhere, easy to save to a real computer, automatically backed up in the cloud.
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Old 09-06-2019, 11:44 AM   #24047
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Originally Posted by MarshMan114 View Post
...... I usually play too tight and probably fold a lot of winners or don't put enough pressure on people......

Does anyone think I should have less 'losing days'?


Marsh
By my count you have 18 losing days and 15 winning days, so yeah, should have less. Especially for a tight player. Winning players should have >60% winning days.

Wondering how you have 33 days of results in July tho....

200 hrs in 1 month is a lot.

Congrats on being ahead tho!
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Old 09-06-2019, 11:52 AM   #24048
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By my count you have 18 losing days and 15 winning days, so yeah, should have less. Especially for a tight player. Winning players should have >60% winning days.

Wondering how you have 33 days of results in July tho....

200 hrs in 1 month is a lot.

Congrats on being ahead tho!
It’s separated by session. So if I played 2/5 and jumped to PLO it would be 2 entries in the same day.

Yeah I’m going to take the volume down a hair and try and book more wins even if I’m not through with my full session yet. See what that does for me.
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Old 09-06-2019, 11:57 AM   #24049
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You shouldn't be trying to "book wins". You should be trying to put in hours. Go with a plan for how long you're going to play for, and play. If t he game conditions are bad, consider leaving or table change. If they're really good ... stay for a while. But you need to figure out how long of a session you can play before fatigue creeps in and kills your winrate.
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Old 09-06-2019, 01:59 PM   #24050
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Paying taxes quarterly is -EV.

Surely you can find better uses for your time.
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