It may not mean much since its not a ton of hours but it could be a bit worrisome that your win rate steadily drops as you go up in stakes. BBs/hr can drop as competition is better but not this drastically and $$/hr should be rising not dropping.

Agrred. I've certainly struggled with the transition to 2/5. I use a lot of exploitive play that isn't optimal as the player quality increases. I have tons to work on and improve.

Never stop using exploitive play. IMO, that's where you will make the most money. Even at 5/10 you can exploit people in any number of ways.

We all have lots to work on and improve, but don't stop exploiting peoples tendencies.

I'm on the same page. I could have been more clear. I have been using certain exploits at 1-2 and 1-3 that have not worked at 2-5. I just need to exploit in a little different way. My play needs to improve across the board to crush 2-5 anyway. There are some pretty solid 2-5 regs!

But i completely agree with the necessity of exploit play. The majority of my profit comes from good exploits i reckon.

Well done 'Spade!

Think it's perfectly acceptable for the winrate to drop by these amounts when you consider (a) sample sizes and (b) smaller stake rates may not be sustainable.

Honestly, if you could end up sustaining that WR at your deep 1/2 game (???) then not even completely sure why you'd want to move up if the 2/5 game is more difficult (unless it is just for personal challenge purposes).

GgreatstartSpade,gogogo!G

For sure we are talking about small samples here. I'm not even to 1000 hrs yet. One other thing that I should mention is that while the 1-3, and 2-5 have been raked games. All of the 1-2 has been played at home games, and non raked games. Not having a rake certainly should boost that winrate by at least $10/hr. Still I don't think its sustainable, but I wouldn't be surprised that a deep 1-2 with no rake could be beat to the tune of $40/hr. (Not by me maybe, but by a really good player.)

Thanks for the support and cheering guys!

Deep 1/2 home game with no rake can probably be beaten for $50+/hr

Rake has a tremendous impact on winrates. For example, assume the average hand nets just $3 to the house. They're taking $90 away from the game every hour, assuming 30 hands/hr. Include what you're tipping and the fact it's not always a full table, say just 8.5 players/hr, we can already see how sitting in the game can cost us more than $10/hr, or a full 5 big blinds if it's 1/2.

Many places drop even more, so yeah, **** DNegs.

[QUOTE=kf98;55299725]so i have a slightly different question on moving up in stakes. i am for all intents and purposes a 100% live player. i play about 90% cash and about 10% tournaments, and i play full time: 4 - 6 times a week, nearly 2,600 hours cash play since jan 1 last year, and a shade over 300 hours for tournaments.

my bread and butter game is 2/3 nl, mostly because the game is ridiculously soft where i play (this year, over ~450 hours i am making 9bb/hr). i do have a dedicated 50 full buy bankroll.


Would the game at the Bike be better for you? There you can buy in for $300

August: +2978/91.5h for 11bb/h.

14 winning sessions, 5 losing. Biggest win: +885.

August was my most up and down variance filled month ever.

1) I had my worst day ever at 2/5 which was -$2212. It could've easily have gotten worse if I hadnt left early.
2) In one stretch I lost 20 out of 22 All ins and was not behind in any of them. 8 of them were basically coin flips. 4 of the 8 coin flips we ran twice and I lost both boards each time. 1 of them was a 4 bet pot with AA vs JTs. He flopped a straight and flush draw. We got all in on the flop and ran twice and he won both boards for 210BBs each.
3) Ran into more sets than seemed possible
4) Got set over setted once and lost
5) Got all in KK vs AA once and lost (No AA vs KK for me this month)
6) I had AQ on a AsQsTsQh board. Dude flopped a Royal against me.
7) I also hit a ton of sets myself
8) My StnDev was 33% higher than normal

If I didn't have a poker app to look at I would've said I got destroyed this month. The bad hands stick in your mind a lot better than the good ones. Somehow I ended the month at 124 hrs and +$6111

My fav hand of the month....

4 limps. I raise to $40 JJ SB. Only 1 EP limper calls.
Flop $100. 543. I check. He bets $75 I call
Turn $250 6. I check. He bets $310. I tanked and I just didnt believe him. I crai to $725 total. He called it off with A5 and I won a big one.

^Funny how we remember that 20% way more then the 80%. Feels like Ive been massively coolered every month Ive played and yet I am very consistent overall.

Seems indicative of a pretty big leak to get it in good 22/22.

Right at the end of that streak, I did get it in on the flop with QQ vs KK and rivered a Q and that flipped a switch to end the drubbing. I guess I need to get it in bad more often.

Non-jokingly, yes, you should be getting it in bad more often.

I know what you're talking about. I just happened to go on a run over 10 or so sessions where I had a lot of good hands and got action on them so when I got all in I was ahead most of the time and flipping a few times. That's not to say I never get my money in behind. I also jammed a decent number of hands with draws or pairs and draws but nobody ever called so I was never behind during that short tretch.

Hey everyone,
Hoping to get some help on some graph analysis. Here is the full picture since last November:


Started out at 1/2 NL ($200 cap buy in) and switched to 2/5 NL around the 500 hour mark. Would buy in for $500 and played what others would make fun of me as a 'very nitty' style. Can't really remember when I started buying in for the 'max' of $1000.

My monthly goals are $4000 and here is the breakdown since March:
March $5700
April $5100
May -$6669 (First negative month. I had -$3500 in 1 hour when a maniac blind shoved on me 3 times and I lost all 3.)
June $7148
July $6037
August -$438

Here is a breakdown of my daily results for July for an example of my ups and downs per day (200 total hours):
-$1,779
-$52
$2,975
$242
$112
-$460
$1,256
$647
$427
-$135
-$80
-$2,153
$382
-$380
$5,140 (I spun it up in our 5/5 PLO game. This is definitely an outlier. But almost every month I have one big session of $2-3k in holdem so this month isn't too different. I chose not to show August or June because we had a tournament series in one of them and I went to Vegas for a week in the other. This was all at 'home' with nothing special going on.)
$207
-$1,257
-$1,277
$244
$1,481
-$1,474
-$739
-$203
-$798
-$182
$1,400
$1,162
$401
-$350
$921
-$771
-$1,083
$2,213

I bring $2500 with me for each session and if I happen to bust (has happened 3 times in 10 months I think) I just go home. I don't have a 'stop win' or anything. And I rarely push past 8-9 hours of play in any session. I just get tired and I know I can play tomorrow. I also try and grind 'normal' hours. I play from afternoon til about midnight most nights, including weekends.

If you've followed any of my hand histories, I usually play too tight and probably fold a lot of winners or don't put enough pressure on people. I've been trying to open my game up more and play more aggressive in position and I think that could be why daily high/low distribution is higher in the past few months. (So I have more wins over $2k and more losses over $1500 compared to my earlier months.)

I've gotten to know some of the local grinders and, as you can imagine, we haven't really gotten close enough to discuss win rates or swings or anything like that. I do know that some of the guys really only play 5/5 PLO and that only runs on the weekends. I've heard rumors of $50k up swing during a tournament series and last labor day weekend the same guy was down $12k. We have a super crazy deep/maniac PLO game so it's not anywhere near comparable to the 2/5 game. But the 2/5 can get deep as it's table stakes and can match the big stack.


So all that to say, does anyone notice anything weird? I'm obviously hitting an overall even stretch and it could be because the small player pool is getting used to me. The weekday games are lots of the same regulars. Or maybe that's just how I'm running? Maybe I'm getting worse? I don't really suffer from tilt issues.

Does anyone think I should have less 'losing days'?

Should I tighten up and buy in for $500 again and only really play value hand poker like when I first transitioned to 2/5?

Or is it weird that I can be up $2k in a day but my overall is only $6000? So I could be up $1800 going into my last weekend and literally make or break my month in a couple of sessions. Does anyone else have months like that?

I dunno. Just looking for some comparison advice. I loosely follow Dumbos Trunk and we have similar month ends, but it seems like he has micro wins and losses compared to me. I know he short stacks, but it makes me think there are big problems with my game.

Marsh

Poker is a swingy game not sure what else to tell you. Also this is the internet so don’t believe everything you read.

Came across your post MarshMan because I wanted to post a tax question here lol. You're looking good! Sorry you lost those AIs against that maniac, that will put a dent in your winrate temporarily. Just nit it up and keep playing a solid value-heavy game and you'll come out ahead. You don't need to bluff a lot to have a solid hourly. You know how I play...just waiting for monster hands preflop basically and 3!/GII, trying to setmine for good price, folding everything else, even "playable" speculative and trouble hands like T9s and KQo.

I have an artificially low stop loss of around $600 or so, so my swings are much smaller than those of players who buy in deeper. I consider this an asset of my BR management, and it also helps me sleep better at night knowing I didn't lose a ton of money any given session. A local pro once said that it's important to limit your big losses, and from a BR management POV he's right. Plus, if I lost much more I know I would be really bummed out; emotional stability is important to me personally due to mental health considerations. I also tend to book wins when I am up, and I rarely will end up losing most of my winnings once I am up. I do not fall into the trap of loosening up when I am winning. However, that being said I am more likely to gamble on my first buy in, e.g., GII with AK pre.

Basically, keep it up. Also, nice giraffe! As you can see for yourself it is trending in the right direction, so you shouldn't be worried. If you want, plug in your BB/hr. and standard deviation into primedope's variance calculator to get an idea of your predicated results. I did and I was happy with what I found. Gl! Now I can make my tax post lol.

Any pro or semi-pros who pay quarterly taxes please let me know what you think.

So I too have to pay quarterly taxes on my poker and nonpoker income (for my day job I am an independent contractor and no taxes are taken out of my paychecks). I understand the quarterly tax is based on estimated expected earnings for the year. How do I do this when poker income represents most of my wages? As we know, poker can be a highly variable way to earn a living, especially when (as with me) you are gradually moving up in stakes.

Anyone who has done this tax estimate already, what did you base it on?

Thanks,
DT

You should have some idea what your hourly win rate is. Estimate how many hours you will play for the year. Multiply win rate times # of hours and you get an estimate of how much you will win for the year. Use that number along with your other earnings to pay your quarterly taxes.

Obviously, you may owe more or get a refund depending on your actual results at the end of the year.

If you are implying that I report false results, you're being ludicrous. That would mean I spend on average several hours a week to keep a poker journal just so people will believe that I (as anonymous as I am) am a winning player.

Get real!

Will I be penalized for underreporting, in case I run really good and make more than I estimated? Or will I simply owe the difference?

do you think you would be penalized for under reporting if you won the lottery?