Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-14-2012, 11:27 AM   #2376
OoberSick
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 252
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by rarerabbit View Post
What did you come up with to do that filter?
I found an app for android that did it for me.
OoberSick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2012, 11:31 AM   #2377
MaxRhino
adept
 
MaxRhino's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 913
Im guessing that 7k downswing was at a 1k max buy in game where most players buy in that deep.

If not, dam bro.
MaxRhino is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2012, 11:43 AM   #2378
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,396
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by lbrasci View Post
Do you guys include poker promotions: high hands, casino comps (can be turned into cash or be used to buy food), and visa gift cards as part of your winrate?

My local poker room rakes $1-$2 for the jackpot promotions which pays out high hands and rakes $1-$5 to pay out casino comps & gift cards.

Should it be included as part of winrate since its money coming out of pot? I use poker income as my poker app and there is no line item or area to input poker promotions. I guess it could be inputed/added to the last session of the month?
In my spreadsheet I've added a BadBeat Jackpot column where I tally all extra type winnings; that way, I can keep my non-BBJ/etc. winrate separate from my BBJ-included winrate. Even though there is a BBJ drop from every pot so in some sense it seems ok to include BBJ type winnings, I sorta felt it necessary to do this or otherwise my lifetime winrate at live 2/4 limit would be a rather unrealistic ~$25/hr.

Gcomplainingthathittinga31.5KBBJhasthrownmywinrate outtawackG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2012, 12:04 PM   #2379
boltyou
grinder
 
boltyou's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 652
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxRhino View Post
Im guessing that 7k downswing was at a 1k max buy in game where most players buy in that deep.

If not, dam bro.
Part of it was (about $2k when I played at the Aria). The rest of it...not so much.

I'm not going to claim that I played perfectly. I definitely didn't and I made some mistakes, made some bad reads, assumed I had more fold equity than I did, etc.

But I would say a good $5k of it fell squarely into the "you will some day run worse than you ever thought possible" category. I had a week where I flopped five sets and two straights, got it all-in by the turn at the latest, and lost each hand, and only twice did I get it in bad (set over set, and top two over bottom set when board paired on the turn). I want it to be clear that I'm not complaining, lest someone direct me to BBV; that's the reality of the situation and that's the reality of poker. It's merely an illustration of how bad someone (anyone) can run, and why it's important to have a bankroll large enough to withstand a run like that.

Yes, that's a pretty unlikely series of events. But play enough poker and weird stuff like that is going to happen, and I want more than a $7k buffer for when these events occur. I don't know any reasonable BR management philosophy that says that ~12-14BI is enough for live play.
boltyou is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2012, 12:19 PM   #2380
fredd-bird
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
fredd-bird's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: KG
Posts: 19,330
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Unless I missed it, no one is saying take that $7k and just play 2/5 until you go busto or robusto. Any reasonable bankroll management strategy should have you implementing a strict stop loss when you are taking shots in good games on a short roll.
fredd-bird is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2012, 12:41 PM   #2381
MaxRhino
adept
 
MaxRhino's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 913
Boltyou, id be unable to play tilt free through a stretch like that. Hat's off if you kept a clear head through that
MaxRhino is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2012, 02:34 PM   #2382
TClermont
journeyman
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 222
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Jinx posted myself. Chopped a WPT Open turbo for 3800 Wednesday night, but then donked off ~1800 of it at 2/5 after. Lesson learned, I have a "winning tilt" issue I need to curb. That'll drop the WR down a bit
TClermont is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2012, 02:37 PM   #2383
mike1270
adept
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,056
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by lbrasci View Post
Do you guys include poker promotions: high hands, casino comps (can be turned into cash or be used to buy food), and visa gift cards as part of your winrate?
i don't but do whatever you like

my WR is what i make after tips/rake/time charge

comps buy my food
mike1270 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2012, 03:00 PM   #2384
RobFarha
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
RobFarha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: @robbyrobbb
Posts: 9,475
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by fredd-bird View Post
Unless I missed it, no one is saying take that $7k and just play 2/5 until you go busto or robusto. Any reasonable bankroll management strategy should have you implementing a strict stop loss when you are taking shots in good games on a short roll.
Pretty much this...

Play when the games good at first and then move down if you get creamed.
RobFarha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2012, 06:20 PM   #2385
boltyou
grinder
 
boltyou's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 652
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxRhino View Post
Boltyou, id be unable to play tilt free through a stretch like that. Hat's off if you kept a clear head through that
I couldn't. I set a strict stop loss and then I took a couple of weeks off. I thought I had a strong mental game, but that reaallllly tested it. I knew something was wrong when I would consider stupid things like "should I fold top set on the flop? WAIT NO, WHAT ARE YOU DOING, STOP AFTER THIS HAND AND DON'T COME BACK UNTIL YOU ARE NOT THINKING LIKE AN IDIOT OKAY I'M ALL-I....AAARRRGGHHHHH HE HIT HIS GUTSHOT"

I took some time off, did other things, read Jared Tendler's book, and came back to the casino fresh and tilt-free.
boltyou is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2012, 06:55 PM   #2386
11t
Bo Pelini's #1 Fan
 
11t's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Spewville
Posts: 31,421
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

4k to 7k swing ain't **** imo, thats like losing 350 bucks at 25nl

trolling aside, 4k swing ain't **** period.
11t is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2012, 06:14 AM   #2387
ibelieveyouoweme$80k
LLSNL FF Champ '13
 
ibelieveyouoweme$80k's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Wentzylvania baby
Posts: 12,851
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Re: Whether to count high hands, etc.

Here's something to consider: Are you playing longer because of the high hand? Not, are you chasing it, but are you at the table because you hit something?

Tonight, I was up about $300. I would normally have left. I had hit quad Jacks, though, and needed to play until 5 a.m. - more than 2 hours more. The high hand held, I collected $300. I lost about $75 of my $300 profit.

So, I would count a high hand type of bonus. I think.
ibelieveyouoweme$80k is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2012, 06:30 AM   #2388
Sol Reader
The Situation
 
Sol Reader's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq
Posts: 9,380
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I wouldn't... you losing $75 from playing 2 hours is just normal variance.

I would not count my food orders as part of my hourly either, or my commute, though I keep track of those separately so I know how much it's costing me. Similarly I would not count bonuses or free bet chips, and so on.
Sol Reader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2012, 12:06 PM   #2389
11t
Bo Pelini's #1 Fan
 
11t's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Spewville
Posts: 31,421
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

In my last two sessions I am -4k although a lot of it is with straddling and deeper stacks

also I play bad
11t is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2012, 02:36 PM   #2390
mike1270
adept
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,056
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t View Post
also I play bad
that will do it
mike1270 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2012, 03:17 PM   #2391
11t
Bo Pelini's #1 Fan
 
11t's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Spewville
Posts: 31,421
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by mike1270 View Post
that will do it
lol
11t is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2012, 03:17 PM   #2392
lbrasci
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Value Town, USA
Posts: 380
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ibelieveinkolb View Post
Re: Whether to count high hands, etc.

Here's something to consider: Are you playing longer because of the high hand? Not, are you chasing it, but are you at the table because you hit something?

Tonight, I was up about $300. I would normally have left. I had hit quad Jacks, though, and needed to play until 5 a.m. - more than 2 hours more. The high hand held, I collected $300. I lost about $75 of my $300 profit.

So, I would count a high hand type of bonus. I think.
Good point I didnt think of that. I do play a little longer sometimes to qualify for a poker promotion.
lbrasci is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2012, 03:21 PM   #2393
lbrasci
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Value Town, USA
Posts: 380
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
I wouldn't... you losing $75 from playing 2 hours is just normal variance.

I would not count my food orders as part of my hourly either, or my commute, though I keep track of those separately so I know how much it's costing me. Similarly I would not count bonuses or free bet chips, and so on.
Yeah, food, gas, tolls, tips, etc dont count as part of my winrate. I only count my buyin and how much i cash out.
lbrasci is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2012, 03:46 PM   #2394
rakeme
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
rakeme's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 6,715
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm amazed at how much $/hr tips were costing me once I started keeping track. I had to cut down a bit and now I'm at around $3/hr in tips. Had to cut out the tips on pots <$20 and now I never tip more than $2 (most of the time $1 unless it's a big pot).
rakeme is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2012, 05:10 PM   #2395
GrinningBuddha
old hand
 
GrinningBuddha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 1,655
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb View Post
There is no denying that 95% of people who post about 1/2 on this site claim to win $20+ hourly, and there is no denying that this is simply impossible.
I've seen you post this many times 2Outs, and I'm curious what buy-in format you're assuming for 1/2 NL. Are you proposing that this is true for any 1/2 NL game regardless of buy-in, or just for 100bb buy-in games (or smaller)?

If the latter, you may want to consider that many of us play in games with bigger buy-ins allowed. My city's casinos all allow a $500 max buy-in for 1/2 NL and all have just terrible players. I'd estimate the maximum winrate (top 1%) in these games to be $30+/hr.

For a $200 max buy-in game, I tend to agree with you that the maximum winrate is capped around $20/hr, unless the games are completely fish-infested.
GrinningBuddha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2012, 02:47 PM   #2396
bobncsu325
newbie
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 36
Is 900 hrs enough to evaluate game play?

Over the past 3 years, I've played poker on a semi-serious basis...keep logs of all my sessions...after about 900 hrs of play, i'm winning at a rate of $24/hr. The past month and a half...I'm seemingly experiencing a downswing...which is forcing me to question myself if my game needs re-evaluation and tweaking...(the above hourly rate is including every session I've played up to this post)...didn't know if I have enough of a sample size to establish myself as a "winning" player or not...I know I still have leaks, (and many more than I originally thought)...but I'd like to what exactly i should take/keep to my game
bobncsu325 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2012, 04:14 PM   #2397
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,884
Re: Is 900 hrs enough to evaluate game play?

Statistically speaking, NO that's not a large enough sample for statistical inference. There have been other posts (mostly in the OL targeted subforums) that discuss the required sample size, where people like to see 100k+ hands. The problem is with using those kinds of metrics live is that the slow pace (30h/hr?) makes collecting such a sample impossible. The game has changed out from under you during the time you collected it, so you can't really lump the early results with the later results meaningfully.

Edit: If you've been a solid winner for 900 hrs live over 3 years, I'm inclined to say that you're probably a winning player. Yea, you may have been on a long upswing during that time, but that's unlikely.

What games are you playing that you have a winrate of $24/hr?
Most will agree that that is a _very_ high rate for $1/2, and probably not sustainable over high hr/week samples. (If you're only playing 8 hours each week during prime weekend hours it's certainly possible, but very hard to pull off with 40hr/week when you're playing on a Wednesday at noon in a rock garden.)

At $2/5 that seems like a reasonably good, but still slightly high, rate.


Because of the 30 hands/hr that you're going to average live, a 2-3 month downswing is completely possible. I've had such swings myself, even when getting my money in way ahead repeatedly. My immediate advice is to first make sure that you don't tilt when it starts to happen, if you've been running bad and losing a BI or two sets you off ... the best thing to do is learn to take a break or quit, it's far more valuable than trying to change your game.

Don't try to change your game all at once. Do it slowly. Pick 1 or 2 leaks at a time, and work on them.

Last edited by Angrist; 09-16-2012 at 04:24 PM.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2012, 05:01 PM   #2398
Sol Reader
The Situation
 
Sol Reader's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq
Posts: 9,380
Re: Is 900 hrs enough to evaluate game play?

It's a a decent indicator for practical purposes, tempered with objective analysis of your edge and your play.
Sol Reader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2012, 05:04 PM   #2399
Sol Reader
The Situation
 
Sol Reader's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq
Posts: 9,380
Re: Is 900 hrs enough to evaluate game play?

What's with all this. $24/hour is not that high for 1/2 at all. Completely reasonable to win 10bbs/hour when people gift stacks all the time with ridiculous plays.
Sol Reader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2012, 06:12 PM   #2400
bobncsu325
newbie
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 36
Re: Is 900 hrs enough to evaluate game play?

the most recent downswings have tempted me to change/evaluate my game...but fixing 1-2 leaks at a time seems to be much better advice...maybe adding 1-2 more types of plays to my arsenal (or removing certain plays from my arsenal).....these numbers are from $1/$3 and $2/$5 live (home games)....mostly $1/$3....at home games....but you're right in assuming I'm not playing that much at a time...usually 4-5 hr sessions at about 2x (sometimes 3x week)...the sessions actually vary a lot...sometimes 3 sessions at 4-6 hrs per session...sometimes just a single 10hr session...

Over 212 sessions, I've averaged half a BI ($100) profit per session

Anyhow...fixing just 1-2 leaks at a time seems to be a very good step to take next...after reading a lot of the stickys...i've been considering switching to a more LAG style type play to really crush these games...but i think what i've been doing so far seems to be ok
bobncsu325 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:18 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive