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Old 07-23-2019, 07:52 PM   #23951
browni3141
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I would also want a higher expected win-rate to justify playing a much higher variance format.

You'll never get a live MTT sample big enough to see your ROI converge, but I wonder if you might be able to estimate it reasonably well somehow using other more reliable statistics.
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Old 07-23-2019, 10:54 PM   #23952
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

so i have a slightly different question on moving up in stakes. i am for all intents and purposes a 100% live player. i play about 90% cash and about 10% tournaments, and i play full time: 4 - 6 times a week, nearly 2,600 hours cash play since jan 1 last year, and a shade over 300 hours for tournaments.

my bread and butter game is 2/3 nl, mostly because the game is ridiculously soft where i play (this year, over ~450 hours i am making 9bb/hr). i do have a dedicated 50 full buy bankroll. i have an additional dedicated tournament bankroll, and i also have a small shot-taking bankroll, which is where i have the big question:

all of the stats i see are based around online play, where you can see thousands and thousands of hands. i recently read an article that stated something along the lines of not ever being able to obtain a truly meaningful win rate live, because by the time you had accumulated enough hours to have a decent sample size, the game would be completely different and your stat would be meaningless as it related to the present game.

so, i've been taking shots at 5/5 and 5/10 this year (about 150 hours 5/5 and 180 hours at 5/10). if the article's theory is right, that is that any stat is meaningless by the time you have a large enough sample size to render it meaningful, then how do i know if i am ready to move up? at that point does it simply become a matter of bankroll size? because it seems foolhardy to say oh well since i have a bunch of money now i should go play a bigger game, without having some sort of meaningful benchmark to point to as justification...?
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Old 07-23-2019, 11:06 PM   #23953
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Any records at 2/3 won't apply to 2/5, because it is a much more aggressive game. You know you're ready for the game by sitting in it and seeing where your money is going to come from, and avoiding the people who won't give you money. If there is too much of an unbalance between the two groups, stand up. And if you can't put people into the groups, stand up.

Alternatively, just take a shot whenever you have 3 buy ins for the next level plus 25 buy ins for your current level. The only way to beat the rake is to move up stakes
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Old 07-23-2019, 11:23 PM   #23954
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by kf98 View Post
so i have a slightly different question on moving up in stakes. i am for all intents and purposes a 100% live player. i play about 90% cash and about 10% tournaments, and i play full time: 4 - 6 times a week, nearly 2,600 hours cash play since jan 1 last year, and a shade over 300 hours for tournaments.

my bread and butter game is 2/3 nl, mostly because the game is ridiculously soft where i play (this year, over ~450 hours i am making 9bb/hr). i do have a dedicated 50 full buy bankroll. i have an additional dedicated tournament bankroll, and i also have a small shot-taking bankroll, which is where i have the big question:

all of the stats i see are based around online play, where you can see thousands and thousands of hands. i recently read an article that stated something along the lines of not ever being able to obtain a truly meaningful win rate live, because by the time you had accumulated enough hours to have a decent sample size, the game would be completely different and your stat would be meaningless as it related to the present game.

so, i've been taking shots at 5/5 and 5/10 this year (about 150 hours 5/5 and 180 hours at 5/10). if the article's theory is right, that is that any stat is meaningless by the time you have a large enough sample size to render it meaningful, then how do i know if i am ready to move up? at that point does it simply become a matter of bankroll size? because it seems foolhardy to say oh well since i have a bunch of money now i should go play a bigger game, without having some sort of meaningful benchmark to point to as justification...?
Live win-rate stats are not meaningless, they just never get very precise and are not very reliably predictive for future results because game conditions change.

150 hours should be enough to have an idea of whether or not you're a winner. It seems you are over-rolled for 2|3 so if you are not losing at 5|5 I would keep shot-taking when the game is good, and eventually move up permanently as long as medium term results show you're winning more than you are at 2|3. If you're winning 9BB/h over a long term sample of 2|3 you should almost definitely be ready for the next stake and it seems you're rolled for it. The main reason to just shot take right now instead of moving up immediately is to get comfortable with the bigger pot sizes and better players. You probably should leave for 2|3 if you get deep until you get comfortable with the new stake. I wouldn't play 5|10 yet though.

If your shots fail you can always back off and focus on 2|3 for awhile with a very healthy 50 BI bankroll. I think your BRM strategy is too conservative, though. If you're playing full-time you want to be more aggressive and move up as soon as safely possible.
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Old 07-23-2019, 11:35 PM   #23955
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Omg do I haz a story 4 u Boise later
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Old 07-23-2019, 11:41 PM   #23956
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Omg do I haz a story 4 u Boise later
You're such a tease, fish! It better be good.
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Old 07-24-2019, 09:36 AM   #23957
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by kf98 View Post
so i have a slightly different question on moving up in stakes. i am for all intents and purposes a 100% live player. i play about 90% cash and about 10% tournaments, and i play full time: 4 - 6 times a week, nearly 2,600 hours cash play since jan 1 last year, and a shade over 300 hours for tournaments.

my bread and butter game is 2/3 nl, mostly because the game is ridiculously soft where i play (this year, over ~450 hours i am making 9bb/hr). i do have a dedicated 50 full buy bankroll. i have an additional dedicated tournament bankroll, and i also have a small shot-taking bankroll, which is where i have the big question:

all of the stats i see are based around online play, where you can see thousands and thousands of hands. i recently read an article that stated something along the lines of not ever being able to obtain a truly meaningful win rate live, because by the time you had accumulated enough hours to have a decent sample size, the game would be completely different and your stat would be meaningless as it related to the present game.

so, i've been taking shots at 5/5 and 5/10 this year (about 150 hours 5/5 and 180 hours at 5/10). if the article's theory is right, that is that any stat is meaningless by the time you have a large enough sample size to render it meaningful, then how do i know if i am ready to move up? at that point does it simply become a matter of bankroll size? because it seems foolhardy to say oh well since i have a bunch of money now i should go play a bigger game, without having some sort of meaningful benchmark to point to as justification...?
Your w/r @2/3 is 9 bigs per. When you sit at the table you can most likely "taste your edge". You are prolly playing circles around your opponents. Just about every hand played you see mistakes that you can exploit...and you are not getting punished at all - every hand you have a gameplan and you are seldom surprised

When you step up to 2/5 the players will be a little tougher...but you should feel similar. You understand what everyone is up to. There may be a dude who you cant quite figure out. But if there are 2 or 3 of those at the table...there BETTER be some whales dumping piles cuz being the 3rd or 4th best player at the table aint gunna work. After 150 hours you should know in your heart of hearts where you stand.
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Old 07-24-2019, 10:31 AM   #23958
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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post

150 hours should be enough to have an idea of whether or not you're a winner. It seems you are over-rolled for 2|3 so if you are not losing at 5|5 I would keep shot-taking when the game is good, and eventually move up permanently as long as medium term results show you're winning more than you are at 2|3. If you're winning 9BB/h over a long term sample of 2|3 you should almost definitely be ready for the next stake and it seems you're rolled for it. The main reason to just shot take right now instead of moving up immediately is to get comfortable with the bigger pot sizes and better players. You probably should leave for 2|3 if you get deep until you get comfortable with the new stake. I wouldn't play 5|10 yet though.

If your shots fail you can always back off and focus on 2|3 for awhile with a very healthy 50 BI bankroll. I think your BRM strategy is too conservative, though. If you're playing full-time you want to be more aggressive and move up as soon as safely possible.
i seem to have been following this right now, albeit for different reasons. i've played the 5/5 a bit, and i have noticed a marked difference in the game between weekday days and weekend nights. i know it's like "duh", but i think the difference is bigger there than the 2/3. i know the friday / saturday late night shift is the most profitable, but it's like damn the game can be tough during the week. so i have been grinding the 2/3 during the week and playing bigger for a lot of the friday night drunkfests, and i've actually kept my winrate at 10 bigs (at the 5/5) over that 150 hours.

i do realize of course that is short term, and i don't consider myself a 5/5 player yet. one reason - and i am curious if this changes anyone's response - is that this is my sole income, so i am being very cautious about moving up. i have been playing a long time (20+ years) and finally wound up with enough money set aside that i could do this 100% full time. so i am probably playing more conservatively than i otherwise could.

another point i am curious about folk's responses, is that i feel the 3/5 is a non-starter for me. i know there are plenty who can make it work, but the game at my home b&m is only $300 buy, and half the time they run a straddle, so you have to play super short (even shorter than the 2/3, which allows you to buy in for $200). the 5/5 lets you buy for up to $600, so i like that a lot more. is there a compelling reason why i should play the 3/5? is it really a must do on the way up the ladder? because that game makes me kinda stabby.
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Old 07-24-2019, 10:38 AM   #23959
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kf98 View Post
so i have a slightly different question on moving up in stakes. i am for all intents and purposes a 100% live player. i play about 90% cash and about 10% tournaments, and i play full time: 4 - 6 times a week, nearly 2,600 hours cash play since jan 1 last year, and a shade over 300 hours for tournaments.

my bread and butter game is 2/3 nl, mostly because the game is ridiculously soft where i play (this year, over ~450 hours i am making 9bb/hr). i do have a dedicated 50 full buy bankroll. i have an additional dedicated tournament bankroll, and i also have a small shot-taking bankroll, which is where i have the big question:

all of the stats i see are based around online play, where you can see thousands and thousands of hands. i recently read an article that stated something along the lines of not ever being able to obtain a truly meaningful win rate live, because by the time you had accumulated enough hours to have a decent sample size, the game would be completely different and your stat would be meaningless as it related to the present game.

so, i've been taking shots at 5/5 and 5/10 this year (about 150 hours 5/5 and 180 hours at 5/10). if the article's theory is right, that is that any stat is meaningless by the time you have a large enough sample size to render it meaningful, then how do i know if i am ready to move up? at that point does it simply become a matter of bankroll size? because it seems foolhardy to say oh well since i have a bunch of money now i should go play a bigger game, without having some sort of meaningful benchmark to point to as justification...?
Nonsense. People have to come up with something to write articles about to fill space. They love to write things that create controversy otherwise readers would be bored.

If you're playing full time and putting in 1600-1800 hrs per year as it appears you are, the games arent changing very fast at all for you in relation to the pace of hours you're playing. If it took you 3 years to get 1000 hrs in it would be different.

The games change slowly over time of course but you are playing many multiples more hours than more other players, so even though some are getting better you are getting better faster. Most players are rec players who rarely get better at all.

Based on my own experiences over 5600ish live hours from 1/2 to 5/10, Im a firm believe that win rates are a lot more reliable than most people want to believe. They aren't exact obviously. A poker player will never be able to predict his exact income next month, but you dont need to be that exact if you have a bankroll and know how to budget your money.


PS...Sounds like you're in L.A? Skip the 3/5
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Old 07-24-2019, 11:28 AM   #23960
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post

The games change slowly over time of course but you are playing many multiples more hours than more other players, so even though some are getting better you are getting better faster. Most players are rec players who rarely get better at all.


PS...Sounds like you're in L.A? Skip the 3/5
this makes sense.

and yes, i'm in la. play mostly at HG, although i do venture to commerce for the 5/10. the 5/10 at hg is too sharky lol.
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Old 07-24-2019, 01:49 PM   #23961
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I am somewhat familiar with both the 3/5 and 5/5 at HG. the 3/5 in general is a much looser game because of the lower buy in. People get it in much lighter. Once you double up and you have other deeper stacks at your table, I would say it's probably a better game than 5/5.

It all depends on your style. If you play tight, the 3/5 might work for you. If you play loose, you need to start with deeper stacks. I personally don't enjoy playing with or against short stacks so I choose to play the 5/5, but if you play mostly at HG, I would suggest that you try both games for a while before making one your main game.
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Old 07-24-2019, 02:40 PM   #23962
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squid_face's reply is really good.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kf98 View Post
i seem to have been following this right now, albeit for different reasons. i've played the 5/5 a bit, and i have noticed a marked difference in the game between weekday days and weekend nights. i know it's like "duh", but i think the difference is bigger there than the 2/3. i know the friday / saturday late night shift is the most profitable, but it's like damn the game can be tough during the week. so i have been grinding the 2/3 during the week and playing bigger for a lot of the friday night drunkfests, and i've actually kept my winrate at 10 bigs (at the 5/5) over that 150 hours.
This is a pretty good strategy. I'd get my feet wet in the weekday games, too, though. If you are overall 9BB/h at 1|3 then you should very likely have a higher $/h at 5|5 day games. If you sit down and the game is a rock garden you can change you mind.

Quote:
another point i am curious about folk's responses, is that i feel the 3/5 is a non-starter for me. i know there are plenty who can make it work, but the game at my home b&m is only $300 buy, and half the time they run a straddle, so you have to play super short (even shorter than the 2/3, which allows you to buy in for $200). the 5/5 lets you buy for up to $600, so i like that a lot more. is there a compelling reason why i should play the 3/5? is it really a must do on the way up the ladder? because that game makes me kinda stabby.
I would only play the 3|5 if the game is much softer. Also, it's basically a short-stacked 5|10 game if it's playing with a straddle, which you might not be rolled for. 30BB can go quickly.
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Old 07-24-2019, 10:21 PM   #23963
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Originally Posted by genghiskan View Post
I am somewhat familiar with both the 3/5 and 5/5 at HG. the 3/5 in general is a much looser game because of the lower buy in. People get it in much lighter. Once you double up and you have other deeper stacks at your table, I would say it's probably a better game than 5/5.

It all depends on your style. If you play tight, the 3/5 might work for you. If you play loose, you need to start with deeper stacks. I personally don't enjoy playing with or against short stacks so I choose to play the 5/5, but if you play mostly at HG, I would suggest that you try both games for a while before making one your main game.
This makes sense. I have played the 3/5 plenty, and I don't really care for it. I like the deeper stacks in the 5/5, and I'm not even that loose of a player. I just like getting max value when I hit monster hands.
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Old 07-27-2019, 07:49 PM   #23964
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Fourth month back to poker and my first month as a "semi pro" @ 1 buck 3 buck. I made a net profit of +3276 at 94.75 hours for almost 12bb/h. I am currently considering moving to play in a bigger game.

Previous months averaged around 7-8bb/h at around 180 hours total.
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Old 07-27-2019, 07:56 PM   #23965
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What is the highest winrate that you guys think is attainable for a $1/$2 game ($60min-$300max)?

I've heard of people averaging $30/hr but is that sustainable over 1000 hours or so?
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Old 07-27-2019, 09:34 PM   #23966
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Depends on rake, average stack sizes, how clueless your average villain is, and obviously most of all how good you are.

But it wouldn't surprise me at all if there are people that can crush (certain) 1/2 games for 15bb/hour or more. What would surprise me, though, is if those players actually played 1/2 as their main game, instead of bigger games.
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Old 07-28-2019, 04:02 AM   #23967
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Originally Posted by DooDooPoker View Post
What is the highest winrate that you guys think is attainable for a $1/$2 game ($60min-$300max)?

I've heard of people averaging $30/hr but is that sustainable over 1000 hours or so?
Like Homey said, "it depends." FWIW, I am running $30.10 over the last 1002.6 hours of 1|2 NLHE, 50-200 buy-in. $1000 is comps, $5585 promotions, and the rest net table winnings. 1|2 is not my main game so this is over the course of a couple years or more (I don't have dates in my lifetime log and I don't care to check yearly logs)

I am far from the best player in the world. I barely table select at all. I'm the guy who will post a HH and say I've been there two hours, with "no reads" on villains other than tight/loose passive/aggressive. I make mistakes all the time. I am always getting better and don't feel close to any skill ceiling. I don't feel I've been running significantly above EV for those 1000 hours.

We're talking about a game where playing tight, ABC value oriented poker makes you "good." 1|2 is a joke. The very best regs I know hardly bluff at all and are so easy to read that beating them basically boils down to folding when they show aggression and betting when they check. Anyone who mixes up their play is usually a fish, and does it in a horribly unbalanced way with way too many hands and they just lose more.

I firmly believe I could win at a minimum $25/h long term in an average 1|2 game in the US, maybe higher. If you took a high stakes prodigy, had him study and adjust to low stakes live games and get in a decent 150BB cap game and allow him to table select aggressively, I bet he wins at a rate most people don't think is possible.
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Old 07-28-2019, 04:39 AM   #23968
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Uhh comps and HH promos should not be factored into a true hourly imo.
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Old 07-28-2019, 06:09 AM   #23969
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Who cares if you factor them in? As long as you are aware of the break down and the fact that they might change, then it's all good.
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Old 07-28-2019, 06:43 AM   #23970
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Uhh comps and HH promos should not be factored into a true hourly imo.
I could see an argument against including comps if they can’t be 1:1 converted to cash, but why wouldn’t you include promos? It’s literally part of your hourly if it’s money you earn through the course of playing.

I would argue against including BBJ or other high variance promos because they never converge to EV, but this is not the case for high hand and certain other promotions I’ve earned. I would even count mail offers for meals and rooms and stuff if they were a significant amount. .
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Old 07-28-2019, 07:44 AM   #23971
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Originally Posted by DooDooPoker View Post
What is the highest winrate that you guys think is attainable for a $1/$2 game ($60min-$300max)?

I've heard of people averaging $30/hr but is that sustainable over 1000 hours or so?
I'm at $33.06 covering a sliver under 1000 hours lifetime.

If I dont include the daytime Mon-Fri nitfest in my regular room (where most guys have $60-$100 stacks and most pots are tiny) and only include weekends and evenings Im at $40.56 over 500 hrs.

Its obviously not my main game anymore. I only play it while waiting for a seat in bigger games or while out of town if its the only game available.

This doesnt include comps (I get $2.86 for 1/2 in my room) but does include HH promo money which I think we should include since $2 is taken out of most pots. I think HH promos are slightly -EV overall for the player. Even if we break even on them, we lose money by tipping a decent chunk to the dealer.
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Old 08-05-2019, 10:39 AM   #23972
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Hi guys! After almost a three year hiatus from poker I returned this past March & have put in nearly 550 hours in since then. I posted my graph/stats in this same thread back in 2015 when I was on the cusp of going pro but unfortunately for all the wrong reasons. The only reason that I’m posting this now, is to answer those who have asked what’s it’s like or if it’s possible to beat high rake games, To which the answer is definitely yes. These results are all at 9 handed $2/$3 with a 10% Cap up to $149 & $15 for $150+. Buyin structure is $100-$500 GL!




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Old 08-05-2019, 03:29 PM   #23973
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Nice work Pipedreamer. Thanks for sharing again.
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Old 08-05-2019, 03:35 PM   #23974
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This question is only loosely related to win rates and may be covered if I search through other threads but I recently had what I think was my first 4 buy in session. In general I don't have enough time to play more than 2 buy ins and if I'm lose 2 buy ins the game is probably not worth continuing to grind at. But this time I was at really good tables where I felt like I had a significant edge. My 4th buy in was the charm but the hole was so deep even after running it up a bit I posted a very modest win. All that to ask, if you think the game is good and your tilt is manageable is there a max number of buy ins you shouldn't exceed? To back this up I'm wondering if winning players can compare differences in their win rates in sessions with 1, 2, 3, or even 4 rebuys. Even if we THINK we can beat a game does the data show after 2 buy ins we should just pack it in for example?
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Old 08-05-2019, 03:42 PM   #23975
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Corn - really depends on the individual. If you are reasonably self aware it can be a high number. I generally do not have a stop loss. I quit when I can tell that it is getting to me. It does not happen often but it happens. I generally dont start getting pissy until after i lose at least 5 bi. However, I have felt myself get heated up after 3. When that happens I dont wait for my blind i rack up and call it a day.

For what its worth I have never said to myself after racking up, "gosh that was a mistake I really should have stayed"
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