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Old 07-01-2019, 09:48 PM   #23926
browni3141
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Re: Losses bigger than Wins?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kyillini View Post
Is it normal for your average losing session to be a significantly bigger loss than an average winning session? I am fairly new to casino poker and have been seriously tracking my results this year. So far I’ve played 58 sessions covering 453 hours. My 17 losing sessions averaged a loss of $450 while my winning sessions averaged a win of $335. Is this normal, just a small sample size occurrence or should I be looking for a flaw in my game that caused this? I am a fairly tight player and in looking back I have often suffered big losses when I have a good hand that calls off better.

Thanks for any advice you can give me.
Do you use a stop win? Are you more likely to try to get even when down or happy to leave early as a small winner?
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Old 07-02-2019, 07:14 AM   #23927
MikeStarr
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Re: Losses bigger than Wins?

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Originally Posted by kyillini View Post
Is it normal for your average losing session to be a significantly bigger loss than an average winning session? I am fairly new to casino poker and have been seriously tracking my results this year. So far I’ve played 58 sessions covering 453 hours. My 17 losing sessions averaged a loss of $450 while my winning sessions averaged a win of $335. Is this normal, just a small sample size occurrence or should I be looking for a flaw in my game that caused this? I am a fairly tight player and in looking back I have often suffered big losses when I have a good hand that calls off better.

Thanks for any advice you can give me.
Tight players very often cant get themselves to fold a premium hand when its obvious they are beat. They wait and wait for those premiums and "expect" to win when they finally get them. My advice is work on that leak.
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Old 07-02-2019, 02:15 PM   #23928
c0rnBr34d
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by kyillini View Post
Is it normal for your average losing session to be a significantly bigger loss than an average winning session? I am fairly new to casino poker and have been seriously tracking my results this year. So far I’ve played 58 sessions covering 453 hours. My 17 losing sessions averaged a loss of $450 while my winning sessions averaged a win of $335. Is this normal, just a small sample size occurrence or should I be looking for a flaw in my game that caused this? I am a fairly tight player and in looking back I have often suffered big losses when I have a good hand that calls off better.

Thanks for any advice you can give me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by crsseyed View Post
No, this is not normal. It should be the other way around. Possibly you are playing too many big pots with medium holdings. Make sure you are controlling pot size the best you can, big hands=big pots, top pair hands=smaller/medium size pots.
I don't think it's fair to say it's not normal without first getting more information. Mainly, what's your session exit criteria? If it's a fixed time window then perhaps there is an issue but I could imagine several scenarios where you may leave a session after doubling up more often than leaving a session after loosing the first buy in. In this case you could be capping your winning sessions a bit while letting your losing sessions run longer trying to get "unstuck". Your game play could also change when you are up or when you are down. Only you have all the information to know what's going on here but it's worth looking into and understanding. I wouldn't be overly concerned though with that small sample size.
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Old 07-02-2019, 04:58 PM   #23929
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It seems pretty obvious, but it’s a lot easier to win $ when you’re having a good session with a winning image then when you aren’t. Extending winning sessions makes more sense than extending losing sessions imo. You just have to be mindful not to give it back when things are going well.
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Old 07-02-2019, 09:39 PM   #23930
Ranma4703
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

FWIW, these are my top 25 wins and losses. You can see that my winning sessions are much bigger than my losing sessions. I should add that I play with a $2500 stop loss in most games, and I try to be aggressive about quitting games when I start to tilt.
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Old 07-03-2019, 07:42 AM   #23931
MikeStarr
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you remember, what was the most you were ever stuck during your 25 3/4 hr session?
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Old 07-03-2019, 09:42 AM   #23932
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by TheHero'sJourney View Post
Hey All!

After a 3+ year complete and total hiatus from poker I am back at it as of 5/22/2019.

My question is this, should I keep separate spreadsheets for the different stakes? Or separate the numbers somehow? I have a spreadsheet where I am tracking date, location, stakes, buyin, cashout, hours played, total profit, total hourly rate. I am playing two different stakes, but mainly only playing 1/2 while waiting for a seat on 1/3 or waiting for the game to run. Everything is on one sheet right now. I don't think I'll have a ton of volume this year since I am working as well, maybe I can hit 300-500 hours after a year if I push hard. So is there any point to split them up?

Thanks for any replies!


I have spreadsheets for both.

I fill out a main spreadsheet that has every stake and every tournament on it. That filters to a cash tab and tournament tab. The cash tab filers to each stake

300-500 hours is a pretty good clip imo. I barely get past 300 now a days with wife/kids/FT job
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Old 07-03-2019, 08:26 PM   #23933
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
If you remember, what was the most you were ever stuck during your 25 3/4 hr session?
That is actually misleading; that is 5-6 sessions that were recorded late, and I smooshed them all together into one session.
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Old 07-11-2019, 11:45 AM   #23934
QuinnthEskimo
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hi everyone,

I'm hoping to get some estimates on Winrates for LLSNL **BY POSITION**

reason for this is to help me estimate what percentage/range of hands I'll need to be playing from each position to achieve those winrates.

I've been seeing some data online about this for 6Max online since those numbers can be easily tracked and compiled for online play, but I was hoping to get estimates for LLSNL play as well as for seats UTG, UTG+1, and UTG+2

Thank you!!!

my initial guesses.... in BB/100

(SB (-20), BB (-40), UTG??, UTG+1??, UTG+2??, MP(+15), HJ(+20), CO(+25), BU(+30))

without those first three positions, this estimate achieves ~3BB/100 which is low, but we probably make a little more from early position, please share your thoughts on how the winrates are distributed *BY POSITION*
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Old 07-11-2019, 12:11 PM   #23935
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Good luck with your request. But it's probably a 100% useless endeavor. Most people don't have a large enough sample to determine their win rate with reasonable confidence. Let alone by position which on average would take a sample that is 9x larger.
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Old 07-11-2019, 12:45 PM   #23936
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
reason for this is to help me estimate what percentage/range of hands I'll need to be playing from each position to achieve those winrates.
It won't help you. You can't use estimated win rates in order to come out with a range from each position. Try to find some proper ranges for each.

As for your question, it's around 40BB/100 from the B, 35BB the CO, around 25BB from MP, 20BB/100 from EP and -25BB/100 from the BB and -5BB from the SB. That's for an aroiund 20BB/100 overall win rate which translated to 6BB/hr win rate. Adjust upwards for higher rates, downwards for lower rates.
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Old 07-11-2019, 01:22 PM   #23937
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'd estimate that there are only a few of us around here with even the hours needed to come close to that kind of data, but NOONE is recording hand by hand results. So the data you're looking for just does not exist in a live context.

The closest thing you could look at is: https://www.amazon.com/Statistics-Po.../dp/1489505954. It's online data, but it's small enough stakes that it is at least be illuminating for LLSNL.
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Old 07-11-2019, 02:56 PM   #23938
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My 2019 so far...pretty bleak and I am where Mike is questioning why I continue to do this to myself on the ride home from sessions. Unlike Mike, I have played poorly on top of running badly and I DO tilt unlike some here. I just can't find a way to get out of this spiral so am looking for any suggestions.


Total Hours 138.75
P/L ($3,584)
Hourly ($25.83) -8.25 BB/HR

1/2 $128/63.25 hrs
2/5 ($3,984)/47.25 hrs
1/3 PLO $182/28.25 hrs

I have had 2 really awful sessions of 2/5 this year (-$1900 and -$1600 over 12 hrs total), so maybe I am over-reacting. But I am really struggling mentally.

Shorn
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Old 07-11-2019, 03:16 PM   #23939
Javanewt
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sorry, shorn7. We've all been there. What type of games do you have to choose from? Are you stuck in one place with one set of opponents or do you have options?

It looks as if you should stick with 1/2 for a while and get your confidence back. Maybe set a stop of $1,000 at 2/5 if you move back up, just so the losses won't be quite so tilting? I know it crushes me when I lose that extra buy-in. (That said, it looks as if a lot of your losses came from those two sessions, and it really is only two sessions -- sucks, but you can definitely come back from that!)
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Old 07-11-2019, 03:20 PM   #23940
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Only 139 hours? That's a really small sample. But we're still going to try to make sense of it.

I think you need to play more $1/2 and PLO instead of $2/5. The reduced size of the $1/2 will help your mental state. PLO's variance may be bad, but if you're decently solid it's a great game.

Are you buying in full for $2/5? So that those -$1900 and -$1600 sessions represent 4 and 3 bullet losses?

I would suggest very highly a 2 BI stop loss for you. Some people can handle getting in 5-6 times, others really can't. But even if you can handle it mentally getting hosed that often is a sign that you might just be completely overmatched on that table and not realize it.

If you hit that stop loss and don't want to drive home, switch games. Or start at $1/2 and move to $2/5 if the table looks particularly juicy. One of the biggest leaks that players have is the idea that they are "a $2/5 player now" and just sit in that game regardless of the table conditions like a drunken whale punting chips at the $1/2 game 2 tables over.
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Old 07-11-2019, 03:20 PM   #23941
Javanewt
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Looking at my stats, I had four sessions in a row (1/2, 1/2 PLO, 1/3, and ROE) where I lost $3,840, so I definitely feel your pain!
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Old 07-11-2019, 03:30 PM   #23942
shorn7
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Javanewt View Post
Sorry, shorn7. We've all been there. What type of games do you have to choose from? Are you stuck in one place with one set of opponents or do you have options?

It looks as if you should stick with 1/2 for a while and get your confidence back. Maybe set a stop of $1,000 at 2/5 if you move back up, just so the losses won't be quite so tilting? I know it crushes me when I lose that extra buy-in. (That said, it looks as if a lot of your losses came from those two sessions, and it really is only two sessions -- sucks, but you can definitely come back from that!)
Thanks. Actually have three rooms to play now, 2 in NH and Encore Boston which recently opened. All within 30 mins of home. So I do have some choices which is good.

Agree on moving down to 1/2 for a while as 2/5 has been a disaster. I feel like I am strong enough to play there full time, but the short term results say otherwise. I have a lot of trouble with a stop/loss, but I might just need to stick to it. Biggest issue for me is that I get to play only once per week so I tend to maybe play when I am in a bad frame of mind because it will be 7 days until I get to play again.
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Old 07-11-2019, 03:33 PM   #23943
shorn7
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Only 139 hours? That's a really small sample. But we're still going to try to make sense of it.

I think you need to play more $1/2 and PLO instead of $2/5. The reduced size of the $1/2 will help your mental state. PLO's variance may be bad, but if you're decently solid it's a great game.

Are you buying in full for $2/5? So that those -$1900 and -$1600 sessions represent 4 and 3 bullet losses?

I would suggest very highly a 2 BI stop loss for you. Some people can handle getting in 5-6 times, others really can't. But even if you can handle it mentally getting hosed that often is a sign that you might just be completely overmatched on that table and not realize it.

If you hit that stop loss and don't want to drive home, switch games. Or start at $1/2 and move to $2/5 if the table looks particularly juicy. One of the biggest leaks that players have is the idea that they are "a $2/5 player now" and just sit in that game regardless of the table conditions like a drunken whale punting chips at the $1/2 game 2 tables over.
It is a small sample for sure so again, maybe I am over-reacting a bit. But this year has been like night and day to 2018 where I seemed to crush no matter what I did. I definitely have some entitlement tilt issues that I struggle with, especially when I see players that I think are inferior rack up huge win after huge win while I am fighting to stay above water.

I agree on the "sitting in the game because I am a 2/5 player now" comment from above and game/table selection is one of my weaker skills. I will keep that in mind though next time I am tempted to move tables to a bigger game when I am doing fine where I am.
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Old 07-11-2019, 03:34 PM   #23944
shorn7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt View Post
Looking at my stats, I had four sessions in a row (1/2, 1/2 PLO, 1/3, and ROE) where I lost $3,840, so I definitely feel your pain!
Yeah game does seem to come in bunches doesn't it? LOL at ever getting to "the long run"....
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Old 07-11-2019, 03:43 PM   #23945
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Originally Posted by shorn7 View Post
Biggest issue for me is that I get to play only once per week so I tend to maybe play when I am in a bad frame of mind because it will be 7 days until I get to play again.
I feel your pain here, too. I have one room about 30 minutes from home. The casinos are more than an hour away. I'm lucky to play once a week. It's hard to think of it long-term instead of "I need to win right now, tonight."

One thing that's helped me is being able to play online on an app vs. many of the people I play live and at the same stakes. Scratches the itch, at least a little
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Old 07-11-2019, 03:44 PM   #23946
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Dropping down steaks and setting a stop loss (especially if you tilt) are both very good suggestions, imo. Just make sure you treat the lower steaks with respect (which you may have trouble doing since their is probably going to be entitlement / I'm-a-bigger-player-at-the-kiddies-table / etc.).

ETA: I'm also a once-a-week player. Really just have to learn to take a relaxing zen approach to the game (I'm probably misusing that word, but know what I mean?), don't force things, and just let it happen (good or bad however it turns out, which will often be out of your control even if you play well). The game will (hopefully) still be there next week. Try (as hard as it is at times like this) to take in the big picture; you're wealthy enough to afford to lose in this game, it's a fun game / night out which you get to do once a week or so, and at the end of your lifetime you'll likely be up money (which very few will be able to claim).

Ggoodluck!G

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 07-11-2019 at 03:50 PM.
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Old 07-12-2019, 09:06 AM   #23947
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Only 139 hours? That's a really small sample. But we're still going to try to make sense of it.

I think you need to play more $1/2 and PLO instead of $2/5. The reduced size of the $1/2 will help your mental state. PLO's variance may be bad, but if you're decently solid it's a great game.

Are you buying in full for $2/5? So that those -$1900 and -$1600 sessions represent 4 and 3 bullet losses?

I would suggest very highly a 2 BI stop loss for you. Some people can handle getting in 5-6 times, others really can't. But even if you can handle it mentally getting hosed that often is a sign that you might just be completely overmatched on that table and not realize it.

If you hit that stop loss and don't want to drive home, switch games. Or start at $1/2 and move to $2/5 if the table looks particularly juicy. One of the biggest leaks that players have is the idea that they are "a $2/5 player now" and just sit in that game regardless of the table conditions like a drunken whale punting chips at the $1/2 game 2 tables over.
+1. The 2 BI stop loss would be a an ideal tool especially if you tend to tilt. Personally, I still use it. You can increase your BI amounts as confidence picks up.
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Old 07-23-2019, 06:01 PM   #23948
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you are making 50/hr playing live cash, how big of a tournament buy in would you have to be playing in order to achieve the same winrate? I assume for instance that it’s not possible to make 50/hr playing $200 buy in tournaments.

There might be too much variance in tournaments and too many other variables for there to be a good answer, but I would be curious as to people’s opinion.
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Old 07-23-2019, 07:17 PM   #23949
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Depends on field size, softness, structure, and rake. But probably somewhere around $500 Buy In.

Also highly dependent on your tourney skill and cash rate / decision making late.
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Old 07-23-2019, 07:39 PM   #23950
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You have to do it backwards.

First you need to assume average tournament duration.

Let's say it's 4hrs. In order to make $50/hr, this means you are making $200 per tournament.

Then you have to assume an ROI you have. If your ROI is 20%, in order to make $200 per tournament, then your average BI should be $1000. If however, your expected ROI is 30%, then your needed average BU drops to $660.

But really it depends on average tournament duration and expected ROI.
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