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Old 06-14-2019, 09:39 PM   #23876
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

In BC, as I understand it, the government takes 30% of gambling profits from the casino's as well as charging corporate income tax so, if you're wondering why we get basically zero comps and a sky high rake...
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Old 06-19-2019, 08:21 AM   #23877
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hi this is Sol.

So I always post brag graphs, but I’d been digging through old stats thought this time of post with accompanying downswings.

Here are my 2014-2015 graphs.





I grinded 2/5 non stop after each of my failed shot or big game where a big whale would appear. It would seem like I’m stabilising and getting out of the hole then I would just get smashed in one or two sessions, sending me back down. I played 1000 hours or so each year excluding commute and wait times.

And this is my 2016 when I finally got out of my rut.

Spoiler:


Hopefully this puts bad runs and downswings in perspective and gives some of you who are running bad some sense of hope.
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Old 06-19-2019, 08:58 AM   #23878
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That's a whole lotta sessions. Avg session length? I assume you are entering it as a new session after each meal break, or something?
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Old 06-19-2019, 11:08 AM   #23879
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Yeah, each table change is new session. I don’t tend to take meal breaks.
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Old 06-19-2019, 11:14 AM   #23880
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Is this 2/5 Sol? Or mixed stakes?
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Old 06-19-2019, 11:33 AM   #23881
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Thanks for the giraffes Sol!

Also really puts lol 1000 hour segments into some real perspective. Pretty sure if you posted those different 1000 hour segments as different users and then claimed you were the same person playing the same game you'd be lol'ed outta here based on some Std Dev math. And yet (assuming 1000 hour segments at 2/5 NL) the -9bb/hr whale versus 0bb/hr lame-o breakevener versus the 20bb/hr crusher turns out to be the exact same guy.

How have things gone since?

ETA: Also, if (???) I've totalled/read those 3 giraffes correctly, does that overall you were a $18.33/hr (3.7bb/hr) winner over those 3 years? Hard way to make an easy living, imo.

Glol@livesamplesizes,imoG

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Old 06-19-2019, 12:00 PM   #23882
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I suspect he has just gotten better over time.
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Old 06-19-2019, 12:12 PM   #23883
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No. Sol has been a pro for a very long time. He plays (or at least used to) a very aggressive style, so the chance of going on extended runs that are highly different than his expectations is more likely than it is for most live players, but he was not some 2/5 noob in 2014.
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Old 06-19-2019, 12:13 PM   #23884
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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
I suspect he has just gotten better over time.
IIRC he was crushing before that, but he can confirm.

GcluelessETA:slowponynoobG
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Old 06-19-2019, 12:14 PM   #23885
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Ah ok. Didn’t know all that. Thanks for sharing.

Still, even pros can improve.... I wonder if he was playing the same style both times?
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Old 06-19-2019, 12:17 PM   #23886
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I suspect he has just gotten better over time.
If it were a single stake then it would be close to 0% chance that it was pure variance. If you lose 50k at 2|5 you're just a losing player. However since he played mixed stakes it's really hard to tell. It appears there were some 15-20k losing sessions in there so he could have been playing really big. If he played 900 hours of 2|5 500 cap and 100 hours of 10|25 uncapped then some run-bad at 10|25 could easily wipe out all of his 2|5 profits. He might have even been a decent winner in BB/h over the same sample he lost 50k.
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Old 06-19-2019, 12:22 PM   #23887
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If it were a single stake then it would be close to 0% chance that it was pure variance. If you lose 50k at 2|5 you're just a losing player. However since he played mixed stakes it's really hard to tell. It appears there were some 15-20k losing sessions in there so he could have been playing really big. If he played 900 hours of 2|5 500 cap and 100 hours of 10|25 uncapped then some run-bad at 10|25 could easily wipe out all of his 2|5 profits. He might have even been a decent winner in BB/h over the same sample he lost 50k.
Yeah, didn't notice that originally, but that's a possibility since it looks like he has a half-a-dozen huge $15K - $20K losses (which seems large for 2/5?).

GcluelesssteaksnoobG
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Old 06-19-2019, 12:30 PM   #23888
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For the record, the first live sample I found from Sol ITT was post Black Friday when, I believe, he was switching to live, though also playing on Euro sites. At the time he had a 300 hour sample at 5/10 and was at 180/hr. Not that he claimed that was sustainable, but just to put things in perspective.

He also mentioned playing 10/25 at that time, though I think he only shot-took it.
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Old 06-19-2019, 12:36 PM   #23889
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Yeah, didn't notice that originally, but that's a possibility since it looks like he has a half-a-dozen huge $15K - $20K losses (which seems large for 2/5?).

GcluelesssteaksnoobG
A $15k loss is completely insane for a single 2|5 session. There is a ~0% chance a winning player posts a 2|5 graph like this. Winning players also don't have $50k downswings at 2|5. This isn't just "wow, unlucky," it's "must suck to get struck by lightning for the seventh time."

I'd be more interested in a BB graph. A $ graph doesn't show how lucky/unlucky he got overall, just that he took shots and ran bad.
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Old 06-19-2019, 01:11 PM   #23890
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Yeah it was mixed stakes, I did say “grinded 2/5 non stop after each of my failed shot or big game where a big whale would appear”.

Someone grinding one stake in a more passive game/style wouldn’t experience this, but I’m hoping it’s still useful reference point, especially those who go back and forth in stakes and try to shot, that this can happen, but more importantly, that there can be happy endings. (I eventually stabilised and I play 10/25-25/50 regularly, the former being my main game, though I mostly play plo now.)

But yes to be fair, during this time my 2-5 winrate was 70+. I think I won around 50k at 2/5 in 2014, and lost 100k or so at 10/25. 5/10 was BE-ish. This is just from memory though.

Also my game is definitely not great in 2014. Running bad makes self assessment hard. Looking back I didn’t realise how much I needed to improve, but also I wouldn’t be so harsh on yourself. It’s hard af to get better when downswinging, in poker and in life. Sometimes holding on is all you can do, which I did.

What’s useful to note is I wasn’t that much better a player in 2016, only marginally. I mostly just ran much hotter than before. It was only towards the end of that year I started studying a lot amidst another downswing which wasn’t too bad partially because my mental game was better and I was able to leak plug efficiently while it happened.

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Old 06-19-2019, 02:36 PM   #23891
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Thanks for posting this Sol. I have been running horrific for huge stretches this year (logged 600 hours+ so far), and i have asked myself several times why i keep doing this to myself on my drives home at night after games. Like i sit in games with huge possible EV due to big fishes/whales in the games: only to get sucked out on in ridic fashion time after time when i manage to get into dream spots EV wise.

Like last night when i got a whale to 4 bet pile 150 blinds pre into me with 5-6 off, because he was tired of me 3 betting him. I call pretty quick with 1010, only to see him turn 2 pair on me and scoop.

Or when i finally flop topset 5 ways in position on 10-7-5 rainbow, and bet all streets only to see whale bink runner runner straight with 99 and scoop.

Its extremely mentally challenging over several hundred hours stretches to keep logging hours, keep getting into huge EV spots only to see the money get shipped to your opponent.
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Old 06-19-2019, 08:02 PM   #23892
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Originally Posted by Petrucci View Post
Thanks for posting this Sol. I have been running horrific for huge stretches this year (logged 600 hours+ so far), and i have asked myself several times why i keep doing this to myself on my drives home at night after games. Like i sit in games with huge possible EV due to big fishes/whales in the games: only to get sucked out on in ridic fashion time after time when i manage to get into dream spots EV wise.

Like last night when i got a whale to 4 bet pile 150 blinds pre into me with 5-6 off, because he was tired of me 3 betting him. I call pretty quick with 1010, only to see him turn 2 pair on me and scoop.

Or when i finally flop topset 5 ways in position on 10-7-5 rainbow, and bet all streets only to see whale bink runner runner straight with 99 and scoop.

Its extremely mentally challenging over several hundred hours stretches to keep logging hours, keep getting into huge EV spots only to see the money get shipped to your opponent.
I kind of know how you feel. I've had two 50+/hr years in a row, about 1000 hrs total, but this year nothing seems to be going my way, about 250 hrs in. I'm still up a little bit, basically because I've played a couple of hours in a bigger game than my usual stakes and won some money there, but overall I'm currently at zero BB/hr, and one or two bad sessions away from going into the red. I feel like I just can't beat the game anymore. Luckily I've only ever considered myself an okayish player at best and I'm well aware that, even though I'm truly running horribly, I still have only myself to blame for a good deal of my losses, so I don't necessarily feel entitled to anything either. But poker is definitely not much fun these days, that's for sure.

I'm still hoping my luck will turn and I'll catch a few breaks here and there soon, though. As long as I keep learning from my mistakes (or at least try to lol), things will eventually get better. Right?
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Old 06-19-2019, 08:45 PM   #23893
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Originally Posted by Homey D. Clown View Post
I kind of know how you feel. I've had two 50+/hr years in a row, about 1000 hrs total, but this year nothing seems to be going my way, about 250 hrs in. I'm still up a little bit, basically because I've played a couple of hours in a bigger game than my usual stakes and won some money there, but overall I'm currently at zero BB/hr, and one or two bad sessions away from going into the red. I feel like I just can't beat the game anymore. Luckily I've only ever considered myself an okayish player at best and I'm well aware that, even though I'm truly running horribly, I still have only myself to blame for a good deal of my losses, so I don't necessarily feel entitled to anything either. But poker is definitely not much fun these days, that's for sure.

I'm still hoping my luck will turn and I'll catch a few breaks here and there soon, though. As long as I keep learning from my mistakes (or at least try to lol), things will eventually get better. Right?
Don’t lose your confidence! I’ve been there, too. 250 hours breakeven is really rough, but it’s not a reflection on your ability. You’re the same person that beat the game for 50/h before (hopefully better), and your opponents are all still making the same mistakes.
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Old 06-20-2019, 09:43 AM   #23894
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Hey Homie,
I know u know how to play poker. I respekt yer poasts. I have had some long breakeven stretches and I know exactly how you feel. Self doubt can be a beast. Just continue to make great choices and it will turn. They want to give you their money - sometimes they just cant...but they eventually will

hang in there mang!
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Old 06-21-2019, 03:04 AM   #23895
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Originally Posted by Homey D. Clown View Post
I kind of know how you feel. I've had two 50+/hr years in a row, about 1000 hrs total, but this year nothing seems to be going my way, about 250 hrs in. I'm still up a little bit, basically because I've played a couple of hours in a bigger game than my usual stakes and won some money there, but overall I'm currently at zero BB/hr, and one or two bad sessions away from going into the red. I feel like I just can't beat the game anymore. Luckily I've only ever considered myself an okayish player at best and I'm well aware that, even though I'm truly running horribly, I still have only myself to blame for a good deal of my losses, so I don't necessarily feel entitled to anything either. But poker is definitely not much fun these days, that's for sure.

I'm still hoping my luck will turn and I'll catch a few breaks here and there soon, though. As long as I keep learning from my mistakes (or at least try to lol), things will eventually get better. Right?
you're a good player dude you're probably just running like dog ****.
Are you tilting?
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Old 06-21-2019, 05:37 AM   #23896
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Thanks for the kind words, guys, I appreciate that. I did make a dive into the red last night. Turns out one bad session was enough.

I don't think I'm necessarily tilting, but I guess I'm not playing my A game anymore, due to my lack of confidence. I think I've gotten a bit too passive, and when I'm aggressive, my timing is just way off. My tables are horrible too. It's very difficult to find people who actively try to give me their money nowadays in my area. Most of them are playing PLO.

I don't want to go off-topic and turn this into a personal whine thread, so I will leave it at this. Onward and upward!
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Old 06-21-2019, 07:10 AM   #23897
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Thanks for the kind words, guys, I appreciate that. I did make a dive into the red last night. Turns out one bad session was enough.

I don't think I'm necessarily tilting, but I guess I'm not playing my A game anymore, due to my lack of confidence. I think I've gotten a bit too passive, and when I'm aggressive, my timing is just way off. My tables are horrible too. It's very difficult to find people who actively try to give me their money nowadays in my area. Most of them are playing PLO.

I don't want to go off-topic and turn this into a personal whine thread, so I will leave it at this. Onward and upward!
Maybe give PLO a try? If you have the bankroll. I'm guessing overtime PLO might take over in most areas, it's a better game for gambling whales. I would def learn PLO if I ever start playing again.
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Old 06-21-2019, 10:56 AM   #23898
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Maybe give PLO a try? If you have the bankroll. I'm guessing overtime PLO might take over in most areas, it's a better game for gambling whales. I would def learn PLO if I ever start playing again.
Yeah I'd say try PLO if the whales are there, but the variance is massive, and the edge is frequently lower because the hand values run closer a lot of the time. So basically you want around 5x the bankroll for similar stakes, and it frequently plays bigger than the denoted blinds, due to rocks/straddles/etc.

Might not be great for someone currently experiencing a big downswong/breakeven period.
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Old 06-21-2019, 11:03 AM   #23899
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Personally when I am running like ass the absolute last thing I want to do when I am doubting myself is go into a game that increases my variance. In fact I go back to basics. I screw my game down and and just try to play rock solid tag poker. As I come out of things and I get my head back together I begin to re open up my game.
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Old 06-21-2019, 11:06 AM   #23900
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Personally when I am running like ass the absolute last thing I want to do when I am doubting myself is go into a game that increases my variance. In fact I go back to basics. I screw my game down and and just try to play rock solid tag poker. As I come out of things and I get my head back together I begin to re open up my game.
The legend has spoken the truth, as nearly always. Now listen.

Totally agree on your take Squid-and i believe that approach is the most important reason that i manage to not make my downswings even worse like many players do. Lol at advising a player having a very rough 250+ hour stretch in NL, and lost his confidence to jump into a new game PLO with skyhigh variance that could easily wipe out any decent bankroll in a short timespan if you dont know what you are doing.
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