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Old 06-06-2019, 02:24 PM   #23851
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

OK, we're getting out of the bankroll and finances portion of this discussion and way too deep into strat. If y'all want to discuss the strat of calling blind shoves, please start a new thread.
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Old 06-08-2019, 03:31 PM   #23852
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Question What should my buy-in and bankroll be for this 1/3 live game?

The only casino in my city (the closest other casino is at least 2 hours away) offers just one type of poker, 1/3 nlh. They VERY RARELY open up higher tables like 2/5 nlh or 2/5 plo but most of the time, anyone who wants to play live poker in the city only has one option.

Now, this 1/3 game has a pretty weird buy in structure, min buy in is 100€ and max buy in is 750€, with a 5% rake and 15€ cap.
I've played there for fun a couple of times (taking shots/testing the waters) and I figured that there's a reasonable amount of fishes but also a lot of regs, semi-pros and pros (people who make a living just playing poker). Most people (even semi-pros) buy-in for 200€-300€ and only a small percentage (the best players) buy-in max.

What should my buy-in be in this game and how big should my bankroll be before considering playing there seriously?
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Old 06-08-2019, 03:51 PM   #23853
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Re: What should my buy-in and bankroll be for this 1/3 live game?

What kind of player are you? Do you track your sessions? Do you win? It's kinda hard to answer this question without knowing these things. If you are just a noob fish, min-buying and short-stacking is probably best. If you are a crusher close to the max is better. I'd probably save at least $2k before playing.
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Old 06-08-2019, 04:26 PM   #23854
JesusChristHimself
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Re: What should my buy-in and bankroll be for this 1/3 live game?

Well, I'm actually a fish atm but I don't intend on playing live again for a very long time, I want to be sure I can crush the micros online before risking any serious amount of money, so my question is kinda theoretical.

What I'm essentially asking is "when I get better at poker by studying and grinding the microstakes online and become confident enough that I can beat my local live game, what kind of bankroll should I have and how much should I buy-in, given the kinda weird deep buy-in structure but also given that only the very best at the game buy max?"
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Old 06-08-2019, 04:56 PM   #23855
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You'll be coming from online, which usually has a 100BB cap, so buy in for that unless/until you see a reason to change. Rake cap is brutal, and at 5%, it won't cap out often.

Bankroll just hugely depends.
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Old 06-08-2019, 06:25 PM   #23856
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I frequently tilt, and if I'm tilted enough it's probably not hard to tell that I'm tilted.

However, my play is largely indistinguishable when I'm tilted, from when I'm not. That's my key.
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Old 06-08-2019, 08:19 PM   #23857
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
I frequently tilt, and if I'm tilted enough it's probably not hard to tell that I'm tilted.

However, my play is largely indistinguishable when I'm tilted, from when I'm not. That's my key.
Then are you really tilted or just pissed off?
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Old 06-13-2019, 04:34 PM   #23858
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How many more years do you think poker will be profitable at the 1/3-2/5 levels?
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Old 06-13-2019, 05:02 PM   #23859
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How many more years do you think poker will be profitable at the 1/3-2/5 levels?
Define "profitable".

A net cash positive hobby? Absolutely it'll remain that way.

Sufficient to live off of? .... I would expect $1/2 is already impractical, and $2/5 is marginal unless your expenses are really low.
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Old 06-13-2019, 05:12 PM   #23860
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I can only speak for my 1/3 NL game I play in, but if the maximum rake continues to grow at $1 per year (which it has over the last 3 years, and with no real reason for it to stop increasing especially with minimum wage going up over the next few years), then it will definitely get harder and harder. Whether it ever crosses the "non-profitable" line will be hard to tell (kinda/sorta doubtful in an optimistic sense?), but a more appropriate question might be "will it ever reach a point of not really being worth our time"?

But I'm certainly guilty of being a the-sky-is-falling sorta guy, and yet the game still seems to be here (although not remotely in the same thriving sense it was in years past) and I'm still able to make money as a pure lame-o nit rec. But my guess would be that 5 years from now it might not be as pretty. Here's to hoping I'm wrong!

Ghaswon$1.96/hourat1354hoursof2/4Limit,whichistechnically"profitable",but...G
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Old 06-13-2019, 05:29 PM   #23861
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Pretty hard to predict the future. But I think if you study and put in the volume you will be able to make good money for the foreseeable future, especially at 2/5.
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Old 06-13-2019, 05:31 PM   #23862
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
if the maximum rake continues to grow at $1 per year (which it has over the last 3 years, and with no real reason for it to stop increasing especially with minimum wage going up over the next few years)
What was the rake before then and how long was it constant? Because I haven't seen that kind of steady increase around here.
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Old 06-13-2019, 06:17 PM   #23863
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What was the rake before then and how long was it constant? Because I haven't seen that kind of steady increase around here.
Started playing 1/3 NL in 2010, where the rake was $5; couldn't tell you how long it had been at that rate (was 1/2 NL before that but I didn't play it so I don't know).

Remained that way until 2016, where it has gone up $1/year over the last 3 years, so currently sitting at $8 + $1 BBJ.

GcluelessrakenoobG
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Old 06-13-2019, 07:13 PM   #23864
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Markets with casino competition haven't had rake increases. We're at 5+2 with hourly high hands, and have been since I've been able to play in the casino.
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Old 06-13-2019, 07:16 PM   #23865
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Jeez, 8+1 is pretty hideous. I think everyplace I've seen in AC is at 4+2, and a lot of them give the 2 back in high hands that hit consistently instead of BBJs, so it feels to me more like 4+1 after hitting a couple $100 high hands.
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Old 06-14-2019, 01:24 AM   #23866
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by BlindingLaser View Post
Jeez, 8+1 is pretty hideous. I think everyplace I've seen in AC is at 4+2, and a lot of them give the 2 back in high hands that hit consistently instead of BBJs, so it feels to me more like 4+1 after hitting a couple $100 high hands.
Michigan has been 6+1 for a decade or so. Recently had some going to 5+2 or 6+2. With more HH than BBJ.

GG is Canadian, so his 8+1 is still pretty much 6+~1.
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Old 06-14-2019, 02:19 AM   #23867
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Define "profitable".

A net cash positive hobby? Absolutely it'll remain that way.

Sufficient to live off of? .... I would expect $1/2 is already impractical, and $2/5 is marginal unless your expenses are really low.
How do you define marginal? I think a reasonably smart person with a solid work ethic can clear 80-100k playing 2/5. I personally made it my goal to clear 80k this year and I have a long long way to go in terms of developing my game.
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Old 06-14-2019, 02:32 AM   #23868
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Define "profitable".

A net cash positive hobby? Absolutely it'll remain that way.

Sufficient to live off of? .... I would expect $1/2 is already impractical, and $2/5 is marginal unless your expenses are really low.
Agreed, and that's without even considering inflation. We all know how much less purchasing power a dollar has compared even to 10 years ago. It's an often overlooked fact when discussing the viability of LLS poker as a primary income, and probably due the to gradual nature of inflation (at least in the US). That said, it continues on while the game stakes continue to stay the same. You would have enjoyed a much higher standard of living 20yrs playing a fixed stake like "1-2" or "2-5" than you could today. As we look forward over the next 5-10 yrs, grinding these rigid fixed stakes of LLS poker will continue to provide you with a lowering standard of living even if you sustain a consistent or fairly improving winrate.
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Old 06-14-2019, 10:57 AM   #23869
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How do you define marginal? I think a reasonably smart person with a solid work ethic can clear 80-100k playing 2/5. I personally made it my goal to clear 80k this year and I have a long long way to go in terms of developing my game.
How are you clearing $100k playing $2/5?

10 BB/hr for 2000 hours? OK. Then you're not accounting for any time off the table for study or improving your game. You're also assuming a pretty good winrate for a lot of "off-peak" times. I think those assumptions aren't particularly great. I think you're going to have fewer hours overall and the more you put in the lower your WR will get.

Then you're peeling off $15k or so in self-employment tax, $20k in assorted income tax, and $10k (??) in health insurance. That's leaving you with $55k *IF* you scored $100k in winnings. Before you even consider retirement savings.

$55k sounds pretty good to a single guy with no obligations. With a family? Notsomuch. But again, I think it's really going to be lower.

Definitely workable, but you've got a lot of risk.


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Agreed, and that's without even considering inflation. We all know how much less purchasing power a dollar has compared even to 10 years ago. It's an often overlooked fact when discussing the viability of LLS poker as a primary income, and probably due the to gradual nature of inflation (at least in the US). That said, it continues on while the game stakes continue to stay the same. You would have enjoyed a much higher standard of living 20yrs playing a fixed stake like "1-2" or "2-5" than you could today. As we look forward over the next 5-10 yrs, grinding these rigid fixed stakes of LLS poker will continue to provide you with a lowering standard of living even if you sustain a consistent or fairly improving winrate.

I miss being able to get a full meal for less than $9. Now the exact same order is almost $15.

But to be fair, I've seen a lot of rooms go from $1/2 to $1/3, and there seems to be more $2/5 around. As inflation creeps up I wouldn't be surprised for the casinos to scrap the lowest limit games to increase the rake. And if the purchasing power of the money is lower, there's less real risk to playing $2/5 for a rec player, so they may naturally shift that way too.
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Old 06-14-2019, 11:36 AM   #23870
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Michigan has been 6+1 for a decade or so. Recently had some going to 5+2 or 6+2. With more HH than BBJ.

GG is Canadian, so his 8+1 is still pretty much 6+~1.
I don't think it's fair to factor in the exchange rate since I pay for my life with my Canadian money. Bottom line is that our 1/3 NL rake has gone from $5 to $8 in 3 years; that's a pretty brutal jump. To be honest, it's mind boggling that Vegas hasn't made similar jumps (especially since they've increased prices on virtually every other aspect of Vegas casino life).

The price of everything goes up over time. That's how things work. That's why we're not paying the exact same price for gas, bread and milk as we did 50 years ago. Thinking the rake will remain the same as the cost of living (and in turn the cost of running a poker room) increases is pretty optimistic. Of course it's going to go up. It's simply a matter of time in every single market, even competitive ones.

ETA: Good points above about perhaps the minimum limits being bumped up as well to perhaps help offset the increase in rake. The Limit games have been pretty much eliminated around these parts, and the lowest NL steaks has been 1/3 instead of 1/2 for quite a while (although you'll be hard pressed to find a 2/5 NL game in most rooms). And with the last rake increase in our room also came a maximum BI increase (from $300 to $400, although that doesn't necessarily make a huge difference if a lot of the players were already only BIing for $200).

GcluelessinflationnoobG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 06-14-2019 at 11:43 AM.
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Old 06-14-2019, 11:58 AM   #23871
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While the exchange rate jab is a bit of a joke, the rate itself has actually changed quite a bit over the last 5-10 years. Went from about 1:1 to 0.75:1. Which impacts inflation and purchasing power differences between the two countries in ways I don't fully care to understand. So that may be a factor in why your rake has changed more than ours has.
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Old 06-14-2019, 12:14 PM   #23872
gobbledygeek
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
While the exchange rate jab is a bit of a joke, the rate itself has actually changed quite a bit over the last 5-10 years. Went from about 1:1 to 0.75:1. Which impacts inflation and purchasing power differences between the two countries in ways I don't fully care to understand. So that may be a factor in why your rake has changed more than ours has.
I'm not an economist so I know nothing about that sorta stuff, but I doubt it has anything to do with it. I've seen enough lol bad rake structures posted in the forum (Upsidedownland immediately comes to mind, but there are others) to the point where it kinda looks like parts of the US is pretty much the only one lagging behind.

Genjoyitwhileitlasts,imoG
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Old 06-14-2019, 05:59 PM   #23873
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That’s fair enough. I don’t plan on having kids and my SO works so the money I’ve made from poker so far has let me live comfortably and save for retirement but I wouldn’t recommend it to someone who plans on having kids. I may also just be sun running so my estimates could be skewed.
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Old 06-14-2019, 06:06 PM   #23874
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Just another update a few months into 2/5-ing, for people considering moving up to 2/5 from 1/2-1/3. If you are beating the lowest stakes, you should definitely move up. There's good money to be made.

People stack off lighter at 2/5, and if you preserve your ultranit mentality at these stakes you should do well. I've mainly short-stacked but it's all the same really.

Started 2/5 as my main game in March:



1/3 results not as impressive (when I was a noob I had my leaks, see October-November above), so overall lower winrate, but meh:



2/5 is $46/hr. at 370 hours, 1/3 8.7/hr. at 1090 hours.

Poker is not dead!
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Old 06-14-2019, 07:00 PM   #23875
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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That’s fair enough. I don’t plan on having kids and my SO works so the money I’ve made from poker so far has let me live comfortably and save for retirement but I wouldn’t recommend it to someone who plans on having kids. I may also just be sun running so my estimates could be skewed.
Your estimates are definitely skewed. There’s a reason most of the pros from 5 years ago aren’t pros today, and even less of the pros from 10 years ago etc.
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