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Old 06-06-2019, 10:42 AM   #23826
Dizzyqtp
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

running below EV happens in poker - like browni said before, the advice should be to work on your mental game if it affects you, not turn down free +EV spots (again, assuming you are properly rolled)

The guy handed Marsh +150bb in EV. That is MASSIVE. He just happened to run really well. Doesn't mean Marsh didn't make the correct decisions.
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Old 06-06-2019, 11:00 AM   #23827
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Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
running below EV happens in poker - like browni said before, the advice should be to work on your mental game if it affects you, not turn down free +EV spots (again, assuming you are properly rolled)

The guy handed Marsh +150bb in EV. That is MASSIVE. He just happened to run really well. Doesn't mean Marsh didn't make the correct decisions.
Can you show the math on that?
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Old 06-06-2019, 11:17 AM   #23828
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Can you show the math on that?
AJ vs Random: 64.01%
KQ vs Random: 61.942%
A7 vs Random: 59.377%

AJ = $576.09 EV ($900 V puts in)
KQ = $619.42 EV ($1000 V puts in)
A7 = $950.032 EV ($1600 V puts in)

Total = $2145.5 +EV

So ... Call it 430BB instead.
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Old 06-06-2019, 11:25 AM   #23829
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AJ hand

Pot $1800
We have 64% vs 36%

We have 28% equity advantage. $1800 X 28% = $504. Is that not how the math is done?
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Old 06-06-2019, 11:33 AM   #23830
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AJo vs {100%} has 63.56%
KQo vs {100%} has 61.46%
A7o vs {100%} has 58.84%

AJo we are risking -900 to win 63.56% of 1800 so (1800*63.56%)-900 = +$244.08

can also calculate it like: 63.56% we win 900; 36.44% we lose 900

(63.56%*900)-(36.44%*900) = 572.04 - 327.96 = +$244.08

AJo vs {100%} for $900 pre = +$244.08
KQo vs {100%} for $1000 pre = +$229.2
A7o vs {100%} for $1600 pre = +$282.88

sum of those three is $756.16 / 5 = 151.232bb +EV
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Old 06-06-2019, 11:41 AM   #23831
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edit. My pony is slow, and Dizzy's post above is correct. I rounded a tidge and used the "random hand" numbers, instead of the 100% range numbers, which are slightly different, so that's why the answers are slightly different

No. That is not how the math is done. Neither of them are.

AJ hand
64% of the time we will win $900 (+576)
36% of the time we will lose $900 (-324)
Overall EV of the AJ hand +$252

KQ hand
62% we will win $1K ($620)
38% we will lose $1K (-$380)
Overall EV +$240

A7 hand
59.4% we will win $1.6K (+$950)
40.6% we will lose $1.6K (-$650)
Overall EV +$300

Total EV +$792
Divided by $5 BB equals +158.4BBs, as Dizzy estimated.

Total overall EV

Last edited by Garick; 06-06-2019 at 11:43 AM. Reason: slow pony
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Old 06-06-2019, 11:43 AM   #23832
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
AJ hand

Pot $1800
We have 64% vs 36%

We have 28% equity advantage. $1800 X 28% = $504. Is that not how the math is done?
No, edge is applied to the money we put in, not the total pot.
.28*900 = $252 is the correct answer.

More typically we calculate EV by enumerating each possible payout multiplied by the probability of that payout. Since this is an even money bet it's easy to calculate the edge (your .28*900 method wouldn't work as cleanly if the bet wasn't even money)

900*.64+(-900)*.36 = $252

BTW, Angrist's numbers are a bit off

AJo vs. random : .6356
KQo vs. random: .6146
A7 vs. random : .5936 (marshman didn't specify suitedness)

Assuming the 900/1000/1600 numbers:

(.6356-.3644)*900 = $244
(.6146-.3854)*1000 = $229
(.5936-.4064)*1600 = $300

In sum 155BB +EV
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Old 06-06-2019, 11:47 AM   #23833
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it looks like Angrist/Garick used all AJ, KQ, A7 combos vs random hand instead of specifying offsuit, so that would include suited combos which is why their equities are a bit higher.
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Old 06-06-2019, 11:47 AM   #23834
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I guess this is getting too close to strategy but Id like to know from MarshMan, where he was sitting in relation to the crazy guy? Also, was he jamming every hand blind or was there some pattern? Did he announce before the hand he was jammng and did it he do it when he said he would? Were there other bind shoves that other people called?

And most of all, is it possible that he looked without Marshman seeing him look on the AA hand, which happens to be the biggest stack he jammed. Or at least the biggest that Marshman called.

All those things factor in IMO.
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Old 06-06-2019, 11:50 AM   #23835
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I definitely had a guy who angled me for 100bb’s when he “blind raised” KK while switching seats. It was pretty dirty. ****ty players/people will do anything for $500.
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Old 06-06-2019, 11:52 AM   #23836
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^ yes those are all extremely extremely important factors

obviously for my calculations I am assuming we know with 100% certainty that villain is all in blind and we are calling off last to act.

there are many other non-tangible factors that come into play outside of the math.
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Old 06-06-2019, 11:55 AM   #23837
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
it looks like Angrist/Garick used all AJ, KQ, A7 combos vs random hand instead of specifying offsuit, so that would include suited combos which is why their equities are a bit higher.
Yeah, I just took Angrist's numbers and showed how he was missing the negative side of the EV calc.
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Old 06-06-2019, 11:56 AM   #23838
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I used all combos, and screwed up a mental shortcut for the money we put in and lose that was completely incorrect due to low coffee levels.


It is worth noting that in these types of spots we do need to be 100% sure that the shove was blind. Especially if the guy is *saying* that he *shoved* blind. I've seen that angle a few times. Works best after 1 or 2 real blind shoves.
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Old 06-06-2019, 11:57 AM   #23839
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I dont know how I screwed the math up. I do All in EV calculations all the time (and get made fun of for keeping track of it). What I didn't know what the percentages of those hands vs a random hand. The percentages are slightly higher than I would guessed.
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Old 06-06-2019, 11:58 AM   #23840
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Unless this kind of thing happens in your room all the time, its just not worth making these calls IMO. The risk is not worth the reward and you will never get to the "long term" for them to even out.
Psychologically, sure, it might not be worth the risk. Mathematically there's no basis for this type of thinking. Just because we won't get this specific type of wager many times doesn't mean it doesn't help us reach the "long run." We need to look at each bet in isolation, and it's actually completely irrelevant whether or not we get to continue to make these bets in the future. A7 vs. random for $1600 is a very, very good bet to make and almost certainly a better bet considering both EV and risk than a normal $25/h 2|5 game.
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Old 06-06-2019, 12:02 PM   #23841
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This is the range that is ahead of a random hand. You'll be shocked at a few of the hands in it. 33+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o +,K5o+,Q7o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o
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Old 06-06-2019, 12:10 PM   #23842
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
This is the range that is ahead of a random hand. You'll be shocked at a few of the hands in it. 33+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o +,K5o+,Q7o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o
not sure where you got that range but this is a bit off.

Angrist posted the range a few pages back that is correct
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Old 06-06-2019, 12:11 PM   #23843
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
This is the range that is ahead of a random hand. You'll be shocked at a few of the hands in it. 33+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o +,K5o+,Q7o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o
I dunno how you got that but it's not correct. 65s has only 43.13% equity. The following is correct assuming Equilab's accuracy.

22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J6s+,T7s+,98s,A2o+,K2o+,Q5o+,J8 o+,T9o
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Old 06-06-2019, 12:16 PM   #23844
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Yeah, mine was a total range that is ahead of a random hand, with the stuff at the bottom balancing out the things that are well ahead. The bottom end is, as you correctly note, not ahead.

Even the corrected one will surprise most people, though.
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Old 06-06-2019, 12:17 PM   #23845
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
This is the range that is ahead of a random hand. You'll be shocked at a few of the hands in it. 33+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o +,K5o+,Q7o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o
That's true as a range, but not all of those hands are actually >50% against a random hand. 65s is only 43% and we should *not* be calling a blind shove with it and we don't need to include it for balance.

I actually sat and worked this out once (because of the frequency with which a particular V would pull the "blind straddle all my money" move). And all the hands that are >50% equity against a random are:

22+, T9o+, J8o+, Q5o+, K2o+, A2o+, 98s+, T7s+, J6s+, Q2s+, K2s+, A2s+

That total range is about 58% against a random hand.
There's still some surprising stuff in there. Like any K or almost any Q.

So if we really wanted to amp up the meta EV and we can close the action HU, we can roll one card and call if it's a Q or better without looking at the other.

It's pretty easy to remember "any A, K, Q, J7+, pair, or 9+connector" and get close to a 'correct' range.
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Old 06-06-2019, 12:46 PM   #23846
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
It's pretty easy to remember "any A, K, Q, J7+, pair, or 9+connector" and get close to a 'correct' range.
It would be more helpful to me (and I'm sure others) if you could set this to like a rhyming tune, preferably something folksy.

Gk,thx!G
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Old 06-06-2019, 12:52 PM   #23847
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pro-tip: call blind yourself and you will always have 50% equity!
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Old 06-06-2019, 01:05 PM   #23848
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expert tip: always shove your stack minus $1 preflop, which will make your ensuing $1 call always extremely profitable.

GcluelessexpertnoobG
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Old 06-06-2019, 01:28 PM   #23849
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He for sure did it blind. 100%. The first one he was in the BB with his arms crossed and sitting back in his chair. Tells the table he will blind raise. Get a few limpers and he calls them idiots because he’s blind raising. V is in 6 seat. I’m in 2 seat. I limp with all intentions to call. He blind shoves. Folds to me and I close the action.

I think the last one he shoves UTG before the cards are even out since he’s first to act.

As far as frequency goes, the first two were in a row or at least in the same orbit. He ‘looked/played’ maybe 1/2 the time and blind shoves the other half. I was done by his second orbit.

He’s a maniac so no pattern. I think one other person called one with a shorter stack because he had AKs blind and I would’ve won with my 34o. So no, he doesn’t actually play poker that I can tell. And I do remember folding a few times to other blind shoves by him.
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Old 06-06-2019, 02:09 PM   #23850
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Originally Posted by MarshMan114 View Post
He for sure did it blind. 100%. The first one he was in the BB with his arms crossed and sitting back in his chair. Tells the table he will blind raise. Get a few limpers and he calls them idiots because he’s blind raising. V is in 6 seat. I’m in 2 seat. I limp with all intentions to call. He blind shoves. Folds to me and I close the action.

I think the last one he shoves UTG before the cards are even out since he’s first to act.

As far as frequency goes, the first two were in a row or at least in the same orbit. He ‘looked/played’ maybe 1/2 the time and blind shoves the other half. I was done by his second orbit.

He’s a maniac so no pattern. I think one other person called one with a shorter stack because he had AKs blind and I would’ve won with my 34o. So no, he doesn’t actually play poker that I can tell. And I do remember folding a few times to other blind shoves by him.
So on the 2nd shove does it change anyone's thoughts on a call with 3,4,5 still behind you? This was the A7 call?


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