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Old 05-28-2019, 06:38 AM   #23776
vini.barbosa
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Re: Help with Bankroll Management and Std Deviation

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Originally Posted by BlindingLaser View Post
I believe around €4K would be around 5% ROR -
(...)

I don't necessarily think that's a reason to not play -- if you enjoy playing and have the extra money to risk (if you're able to save €200 out of your salary each pay period and put it into your bankroll) then I think it's fine to have a higher ROR but a replenishable bankroll. Just be aware that losing €1K in this game would be a totally normal thing to happen, even if you're winning, even if you're crushing.

Thank you!

I’m pretty confortable playing with a capped bankroll with the reloads from my salary.
What do you think it would be a normal swing for 300hours?
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Old 05-28-2019, 09:20 AM   #23777
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So for 300 hours/10,000 hands, assuming you're actually winning 5bb/100, you'll on average have won €1K -- I believe you could have won or lost anywhere between about -€3K and +€5K and still have a true winrate of 5bb/100. It becomes less likely that your true winrate is 5bb/100 the further away your observed results are from €1K over 10,000 hands, but keep in mind 10,000 hands is a drop in the bucket.

Around 100,000 hands (so if you get 600 hours a year, about five years from now) you can be a lot more certain of your winrate/whether you're winning. You'd also have lost a lot if you're actually losing 5bb/100 (about €10K!)
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Old 06-01-2019, 08:52 AM   #23778
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just wanted to let everyone know the Doom Switch does exist. And it's maddening.

Capped it off last night losing aces full of jacks to a royal flush. Because why not. (And no we don't have any bad beat or high hand promos.)



Taking some days off and going to find a way to blow some steam off. Then moving down in stakes until my Vegas trip in 2 weeks. Maybe even hit a few donkaments to get my mind off things.

Marsh
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Old 06-01-2019, 09:10 AM   #23779
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Im pretty comfortable playing 2/5 with a 5k roll. If I were to drop 4 BI's there consecutively then I go back down and grind again. 10k roll for 2/5 is plenty though. If you want to be a very conservative person though more can never hurt.
Ditto. I started playing 2/5 almost full time when I hit around $6-8k. I don't recall the exact number, but it wasn't anywhere near 20 (max) BIs. I had 20 min BIs, however (and I did min buy for the most part).

I just figured I was good enough at that point that I wouldn't go broke and could escape the 1/3 rake trap.
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Old 06-01-2019, 09:32 AM   #23780
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You have such en enormous edge as a good player at 1/2, it isn't even comparable to online.
Just going from 5bb/100 to 10bb/100 has a huge effect on your variance and live the winrate could be as high as 30bb/100 if you are actually making €20 an hour.
€20 an hour seems like a lot for 1/2 so let's halve that and say 10 ann hour, that still a good 15bb/100 which changes a variance graph a lot.
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Old 06-01-2019, 01:12 PM   #23781
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MarshMan114 View Post
Just wanted to let everyone know the Doom Switch does exist. And it's maddening.

Capped it off last night losing aces full of jacks to a royal flush. Because why not. (And no we don't have any bad beat or high hand promos.)



Taking some days off and going to find a way to blow some steam off. Then moving down in stakes until my Vegas trip in 2 weeks. Maybe even hit a few donkaments to get my mind off things.

Marsh
Ouch sorry. A little break will help.
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Old 06-01-2019, 04:08 PM   #23782
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Bad beat jackpots are such a terrible waste of money. The difference between a BBJ room and a HH room is probably easily at least $5/h win-rate (I count a BBJ as $0/h because variance is too high to count on it) and HH are just as good, if not better at attracting fish than a BBJ. HH also cause fish to misplay hands more frequently. At 1|2 I see people open-raise anything from 63s to AA to $5 to make sure the pot is big enough to qualify just in case they hit. They slow-play almost any hand that has outs to a high hand. Some of them limp big pairs because they're afraid everyone will fold to a raise and they'll miss out on the high hand. People will soft-play you and check it down because they don't even care about winning your money, only the HH. Any 1|2 players serious about making money should avoid BBJs and play in rooms with only HHs.

It doesn't matter as much at 2|5 because it's going to account for a relatively small fraction of your win-rate and fish aren't adjusting their play as much to try to hit promotions.
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Old 06-01-2019, 05:25 PM   #23783
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Not to mention the extra $100 or $200 that goes into play immediately when a HH hits and they pay out in chips. HH >> BBJ
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Old 06-03-2019, 12:55 PM   #23784
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Ponnie View Post
You have such en enormous edge as a good player at 1/2, it isn't even comparable to online.
Just going from 5bb/100 to 10bb/100 has a huge effect on your variance and live the winrate could be as high as 30bb/100 if you are actually making €20 an hour.
€20 an hour seems like a lot for 1/2 so let's halve that and say 10 ann hour, that still a good 15bb/100 which changes a variance graph a lot.
This is imprecise -- the variance is the variance, regardless of what your winrate is. Just because more of the distribution is in the positive numbers doesn't decrease the variance...if anything, higher winrate tends to mean higher variance (because for the higher winrate, your opponents will frequently be making bad but highly variant plays).
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Old 06-03-2019, 09:46 PM   #23785
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by BlindingLaser View Post
This is imprecise -- the variance is the variance, regardless of what your winrate is. Just because more of the distribution is in the positive numbers doesn't decrease the variance...if anything, higher winrate tends to mean higher variance (because for the higher winrate, your opponents will frequently be making bad but highly variant plays).
No.. you think a 10bb winner will have more variance than a 1bb winner? Really? Just think about it man
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Old 06-03-2019, 11:52 PM   #23786
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No.. you think a 10bb winner will have more variance than a 1bb winner? Really? Just think about it man
You should google what variance means.
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Old 06-04-2019, 08:38 AM   #23787
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You should google what variance means.
^^ This. If you think variance is anything other than standard deviation squared, you're incorrect.

Obviously the way we "feel" or "perceive" variance involves whether we're winning or losing, and that tends to be a common definition on poker forums, but like I said, how you feel has nothing to do with it, and it's even possible/likely that the bigger a winner you are in the game, the more variance you experience.

Think about a game where your opponent open shoves a 100bb stack every hand. This is probably among the best poker games you could ever get, but the variance is higher than your normal game. Do you see why?
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Old 06-04-2019, 11:25 AM   #23788
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MarshMan114 View Post
Just wanted to let everyone know the Doom Switch does exist. And it's maddening.

Capped it off last night losing aces full of jacks to a royal flush. Because why not. (And no we don't have any bad beat or high hand promos.)



Taking some days off and going to find a way to blow some steam off. Then moving down in stakes until my Vegas trip in 2 weeks. Maybe even hit a few donkaments to get my mind off things.

Marsh
Thanks for posting your giraffe.

Yeah, this is all part of what will eventually make up your poker giraffe for your lifetime; you'll have good times (looks like you had a similar sized uptick at the ~600 hour mark), you'll have bad times (now), and everything in between. The more hours you play, the more you'll experience these types of things which will move your overall results more towards their expectation.

It's giraffes like these that make me extremely wary of claims along the lines of "I was beating 1/2 NL for 12bb/hr over 600 hours, it is so easy, so I moved up". My guess would be that you wouldn't even think such a downswing was possible at your 1200 hour mark, and it also shows what lol sample sizes we get in this game for our lifetime. It took me 1800 hours of 1/3 before I even went on a 500bb downswing.

Good luck moving forward. Just try to get in your best head space and play your game (the game you know works) and you'll be fine.

Ggogogo!,imoG
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Old 06-04-2019, 12:22 PM   #23789
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Thanks for posting your giraffe.

Yeah, this is all part of what will eventually make up your poker giraffe for your lifetime; you'll have good times (looks like you had a similar sized uptick at the ~600 hour mark), you'll have bad times (now), and everything in between. The more hours you play, the more you'll experience these types of things which will move your overall results more towards their expectation.

It's giraffes like these that make me extremely wary of claims along the lines of "I was beating 1/2 NL for 12bb/hr over 600 hours, it is so easy, so I moved up". My guess would be that you wouldn't even think such a downswing was possible at your 1200 hour mark, and it also shows what lol sample sizes we get in this game for our lifetime. It took me 1800 hours of 1/3 before I even went on a 500bb downswing.

Good luck moving forward. Just try to get in your best head space and play your game (the game you know works) and you'll be fine.

Ggogogo!,imoG

Thanks man. It’s super frustrating, but a large portion was when an ex-dealer came to my 2/5 table and started blind shoving. Lost $3500 to 3 blind shoves in a row. Also lost set of QQ to KJ on a KQ3r board for almost $2k.

But yeah, it was enough to check my ego and sanity at the door.
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Old 06-04-2019, 02:45 PM   #23790
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Something seems weird with this graph. Dont you play 2/5? If Im reading it correctly, you were up about $29,000 after 1200 hours? That's about $24/hr. Not bad but nothing crazy good either. That's not the weird thing though.

I dont think as a moderate winner, I would be calling multiple $1000+ blind shoves unless I had really good hands. What did you call with? If Im a $20-$25/hr winner Im probably not calling those huge blind shoves without knowing I have a pretty big equity advantage. Im not waiting for AA/KK but Im also not calling with with hands like rag aces or QJs just because that's ahead of a random hand.

You lost about $11000 in 100 hours? Even accounting for the -$5500 you mentioned (which is huge but an outlier Im sure), you still lost another $5500 in less than 100 hours. That's 11 100BB buy ins on top of the other losses.

Something seems amiss. Im guessing there was some serious tilt in there? I dont know anyone who has lost 11 buy ins without some serious tilt/bad play mixed in. Im not picking on you. Ive been on a bad run myself and I know Ive made some subpar tilt plays, but somewhere near 5 buy ins, most people need a serious wake up call / self evaluation.

Last edited by MikeStarr; 06-04-2019 at 02:57 PM.
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Old 06-04-2019, 03:14 PM   #23791
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Why does your winrate matter to how wide you'd call a gift spot? If you're rolled for it you should take the +EV call and ride the variance train. It should be a BR question, not a WR one.


You can call as wide as 22+, T9o+, J8o+, Q5o+, K2o+, A2o+, 98s+, T7s+, J6s+, Q2s+, K2s+, A2s+ if you were heads up and still have >50%. Total range is about 58%. (Had a couple of guys in my HG that used to blind shove often enough it was worth figuring this out.)

If we just look at the magnitude of the oscillations around hour 800, I'd expect that +-$3000 is a perfectly 'normal' swing for this player/game combo. Tack some of that on to the super runbad and there's almost no way that there isn't at least $2k of tilt loss in there.
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Old 06-04-2019, 03:26 PM   #23792
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Why does your winrate matter to how wide you'd call a gift spot? If you're rolled for it you should take the +EV call and ride the variance train. It should be a BR question, not a WR one.


You can call as wide as 22+, T9o+, J8o+, Q5o+, K2o+, A2o+, 98s+, T7s+, J6s+, Q2s+, K2s+, A2s+ if you were heads up and still have >50%. Total range is about 58%. (Had a couple of guys in my HG that used to blind shove often enough it was worth figuring this out.)

If we just look at the magnitude of the oscillations around hour 800, I'd expect that +-$3000 is a perfectly 'normal' swing for this player/game combo. Tack some of that on to the super runbad and there's almost no way that there isn't at least $2k of tilt loss in there.
In theory, you can say that as long as you have the bankroll, you should call with any equity edge, but we dont play in theory. We play in real life. We arent robots. When a $20-$25/hr winner loses $3500 in 3 hands, probably within an hour or 2, its going to have a massive affect on him.

He just lost 140-175 hrs worth of winnings. That's pretty hard to get over mentally. It will affect his mood when hes away from the table. It probably led to lots of bad play and tilt. I could be way off base but if those losses did lead to bad play, who knows how many $1000s those calls cost him.

Sometimes a small edge for relatively large amounts of money is not worth it because losing them will hurt a lot more than winning them will help.
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Old 06-04-2019, 03:53 PM   #23793
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Nothing looks amiss in MarshMan114's graph. I've lost five buy-ins in one night in the same type of game. It's not difficult when you have crazy players. I'll take all in for $1000+ at a 1/2 game all night long with hands like AQ vs. Q6, and I will always put my money in when I know I've got an advantage.

Of course, I've won $4,000 in one night at the same game. Heck, my husband won $8,500 in the same night I lost $1,500 (yes, in a 1/2 game). And I won four buy-ins back two nights later.

Variance is variance.

MarshMan, I can totally understand your wanting to go down in stakes, and I think it would do you good mentally, but don't fret about the loss -- you will make a comeback. Just get your mental game back and you'll be fine. (Start studying PLO for your Vegas trip, too!!!)

Last edited by Javanewt; 06-04-2019 at 04:13 PM.
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Old 06-04-2019, 04:30 PM   #23794
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Something seems weird with this graph. Dont you play 2/5? If Im reading it correctly, you were up about $29,000 after 1200 hours? That's about $24/hr. Not bad but nothing crazy good either. That's not the weird thing though.

I dont think as a moderate winner, I would be calling multiple $1000+ blind shoves unless I had really good hands. What did you call with? If Im a $20-$25/hr winner Im probably not calling those huge blind shoves without knowing I have a pretty big equity advantage. Im not waiting for AA/KK but Im also not calling with with hands like rag aces or QJs just because that's ahead of a random hand.

You lost about $11000 in 100 hours? Even accounting for the -$5500 you mentioned (which is huge but an outlier Im sure), you still lost another $5500 in less than 100 hours. That's 11 100BB buy ins on top of the other losses.

Something seems amiss. Im guessing there was some serious tilt in there? I dont know anyone who has lost 11 buy ins without some serious tilt/bad play mixed in. Im not picking on you. Ive been on a bad run myself and I know Ive made some subpar tilt plays, but somewhere near 5 buy ins, most people need a serious wake up call / self evaluation.

All good questions. His first blind shove I had AJo and it was for about 900. His 22 held. I had 2500 on the table. (Very deep but I had gone down 1000 and rebought and got back to even.) next shove I had KQo and his 97 held. I bought in another 1000 and called in CO with A7. His AA held.

I asked another good player about it and he said it’s printing money. I think the lesson for me is to max this out at $500 a pop. You don’t have to believe this, but I really didn’t tilt like you think.

One of the variables is I started buying in for 200bb once I got comfortable. (Maybe hour 900?) And we get a decent amount of regs who match the big stack (our 2/5 can match the big stack). I was also playing very nitty in the beginning and wasn’t getting paid off as much later on. So I’ve been trying so loosen up in spots. So really its like I’m playing a 5/10 or higher depending on who shows up.

Here is an example of mini-tilt. ($900 effective). Button fish on a heater limps, SB completes and I make it $30 with AJ. Flop AKJ

I bet $45 and he raises to $180. I consider he’s a rec and instead of folding I reraise thinking he has a lot of AX. We get it in and He shows Q10 and the A on the river slow rolls me. Now I’d like to think the money got in on the river, but it didn’t and I should’ve folded.

I’ve also seen an uptick in super aggressive players putting you to the test for stacks.

If nothing else, I agree that I’m not great and need to improve. I’m also buying in for $500 now and trying to reset this month.

Marsh
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Old 06-04-2019, 04:34 PM   #23795
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Nothing looks amiss in MarshMan114's graph. I've lost five buy-ins in one night in the same type of game. It's not difficult when you have crazy players. I'll take all in for $1000+ at a 1/2 game all night long with hands like AQ vs. Q6, and I will always put my money in when I know I've got an advantage.

Of course, I've won $4,000 in one night at the same game. Heck, my husband won $8,500 in the same night I lost $1,500 (yes, in a 1/2 game). And I won four buy-ins back two nights later.

Variance is variance.

MarshMan, I can totally understand your wanting to go down in stakes, and I think it would do you good mentally, but don't fret about the loss -- you will make a comeback. Just get your mental game back and you'll be fine. (Start studying PLO for your Vegas trip, too!!!)
Thanks! Funny thing is PLO is going ok for me here. Who would’ve thought that’d be the steady ale for me last month?
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Old 06-04-2019, 04:37 PM   #23796
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Thanks! Funny thing is PLO is going ok for me here. Who would’ve thought that’d be the steady ale for me last month?
If you get in the right games in Vegas, you should have no problem. My only advice is to set a win-limit / stop-limit per session and stick to it!
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Old 06-04-2019, 04:54 PM   #23797
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AJ, KQ, A7 vs blind shoves are printing (I’m just assuming you were last to act for each, if you weren’t it could change things a bit) Sometimes you run bad, it happens.

Only thing I’d say is just be 100% sure the guy is actually all in blind - I’m sure you did, but it’s a common angle. (Him showing up with AA in one hand my only reason for saying this but obviously just unlucky if you know he’s blind for sure)
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Old 06-04-2019, 06:34 PM   #23798
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AJ, KQ, A7 vs blind shoves are printing (I’m just assuming you were last to act for each, if you weren’t it could change things a bit) Sometimes you run bad, it happens.

Only thing I’d say is just be 100% sure the guy is actually all in blind - I’m sure you did, but it’s a common angle. (Him showing up with AA in one hand my only reason for saying this but obviously just unlucky if you know he’s blind for sure)
Oh yeah I made absolutely sure.

And to give more credence to the fact this isn’t your normal 2/5: it’s Tuesday evening and there’s one table running with $13k+ on the table (3 players with $3k). About half the table is straddling. This doesn’t happen everyday, but at least once per week it gets big for some reason.
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Old 06-04-2019, 10:53 PM   #23799
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Month 3 coming back to poker is at an end.

+1550 over 56 hours for May @ 1/3. Feels like there are way better players at the table than me but their overall strategy and occasional fancy plays feels like its turning big winners into average. $28/h or just under 10bb/h. Really felt like I ran under ev this month even though it was my best. Lost 3 sets, couple over flushes, lost AA, KK to under pairs.

Month 1 & 2 were similar to each other. 45~ hours played, +850 per month so about $3200 made in 150 hours.

Last edited by AAJTo; 06-04-2019 at 11:00 PM.
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Old 06-04-2019, 10:59 PM   #23800
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Congrats on the results!

But if were behing honest, trying to draw any conclusions from 3 months of playing is just asking for trouble.

Continued good luck to you.
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