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Old 05-10-2019, 12:18 PM   #23751
DumbosTrunk
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by m0mmy View Post
Just wondering what are yalls thought on short buying. I play in an uncapped 1/2 with multiple stacks of 300-1000bb on the table at a time. The mimimum buy in is 100$ and i have been buying in for 100-150$ at a time. Right now i have 1500 dedicated to poker. What do you suggest i buy in for?

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$100-$150 works fine. You should never be calling raises, only 3! (or 4! with AA, KK against people who aren't only 3! AA) and only with super premiums (AK, JJ+). Fold suited connectors, non-premium broadways, small PP. You can try to see a cheap flop with mid-PP 77-TT. With these hands I prefer limping, and with TT sometimes l/rr AI depending on the raiser. I often used the old l/rr AI from EP with my entire range, especially at a very active table where a raise is likely to get multiple callers putting extra dead money out there.

You should just leave after one or two double-ups and book the small win. They will add up. Plus, starting out, $100 or $200 is a lot relative to your BR. Obviously this method takes a lot of patience and discipline, but it's a winning strategy for someone with a small roll. Note my friend did this and quarupled his roll ($500 to $2k) but then lost all his profit over the next month or two and quit, so it's not impossible to go broke. Sometimes you just get lots of negative variance all near the beginning. I went broke myself early on at one point (but I didn't really have a roll).

Be prepared to lose to coolers and suckouts. That's how stortstaking works when you do lose. It can be brutal but it's how I built up my roll over a year to a point where I'm pretty much doing the same thing at 2/5, except now once I have doubled up a couple times and am deep I do not rack up because I have learned deepstack decently enough too.

Gl!

Last edited by DumbosTrunk; 05-10-2019 at 12:31 PM.
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Old 05-10-2019, 01:15 PM   #23752
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Short-stacking is fine, but you do have to be very patient and disciplined. Against really good players, you have to be willing to gii slightly lighter because they should and will put on maximum pressure if they think you are scared money. Maybe you aren't, but they might think you are.

Agree with leaving after you've doubled or tripled up.

(Caveat: I never play short unless I'm down / coolered and leaving soon or have hit my max. Probably not a good strategy and I should just leave, but losing my last $100 is worth the times I'll double it up or better.)
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Old 05-10-2019, 01:16 PM   #23753
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by jelloman View Post
So, I'm re-reading Jonahan Little's book " Stratagies for Beating Small Stakes Poker Cash Games"

He states that most of his research was done playing $1-2 at Borgata in Atlantic City.

He made $ 35 / Hour over a "decent" period of time.

I realize he's a great player, but do you think this amount is sustainable ? While most people crushing $ 1-2 at this rate would move up to higher stakes, I still have a hard time believing that $35 / hour at this level can be maintained.

Comments ?
If I'm remembering right, I think there was 1 guy who posted a winrate here of almost $50/hr in 1/2 and 1/3 over about 1k hrs.

Games are always getting tougher, but I think if you can buy in for 200bb deep, and straddles are allowed, and the rake maxes out at around $5 or $6, and the player pool is not that strong, then the very best in that
1/2 game are probably winning $35-$40/hr.
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Old 05-10-2019, 04:02 PM   #23754
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MarshMan114 View Post
It was more of a philosophical statement describing the machismo attitude of the poker world. It's generally difficult to admit mistakes, learn from them, and improve if you already 'know' you're good.
I agree. Poker will die when mothers stop telling their sons that they're really really smart.

Also, it may be true that poker attracts people who think they're smart while thinking oneself smart is(very often) an indicator of the alternative.

I like to say, self-deprecatingly, "I think I'm smart but poker disagrees".

Last edited by zica; 05-10-2019 at 04:26 PM.
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Old 05-11-2019, 11:35 AM   #23755
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by m0mmy View Post
What percentage of my bankroll would you say is too much to have on the table?
Anything more than 10% is asking for trouble.
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Old 05-11-2019, 11:46 AM   #23756
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
Anything more than 10% is asking for trouble.
Just for conversations sake, what if you sit with 5% and get on a heater and finding yourself sitting on what is now 15%?
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Old 05-11-2019, 12:59 PM   #23757
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Pick up, or at least change tables so that you can go south.
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Old 05-11-2019, 01:04 PM   #23758
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
Pick up, or at least change tables so that you can go south.
He's joking. Don't go south. You can switch to a table with all short stacks that you cover. Or, depending on your room's rules, leave the casino for an hour or so and come back with the minimum. Or switch stakes. Or better yet, call it a session and come back the next day.
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Old 05-11-2019, 01:10 PM   #23759
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Some rooms not only allow you to go south when you switch tables, but even require it if you are over the table's max buy-in.

Very bad rule, imo, but also pretty common, especially in California.
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Old 05-18-2019, 05:06 AM   #23760
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Bankroll for 1/1 games UK?

Hey, I have played online poker for 2 years, only being a winning player for maybe around a year at 5NLz for EV of around 9 bb/100 (over decent sample), but I want to try my hand at live games. I just finished my A levels and am taking a gap year, in which I plan on grinding out live poker. I currently have a BR of £2000, and the casino I plan on playing at offers 1/1 games with min/max buyin of 40/400.

What would you recommend I buy in for, and should I grind online poker longer to build a bigger BR before playing live? I believe 1/1 games are fairly soft but idk if 2k is enough
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Old 05-18-2019, 08:20 PM   #23761
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Re: Bankroll for 1/1 games UK?

What's the rake? If you can only beat it by sitting deep 5 buyins is a pretty scarce bankroll.
If you can buy in for 100bb you have a 20 buyin bankroll which seems allright for recreational play with an acceptable risk of ruin.
It's not enough if it's a bankroll where you intend to take money out off to live from.
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Old 05-19-2019, 09:11 AM   #23762
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Re: Bankroll for 1/1 games UK?

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Originally Posted by Ponnie View Post
What's the rake? If you can only beat it by sitting deep 5 buyins is a pretty scarce bankroll.
If you can buy in for 100bb you have a 20 buyin bankroll which seems allright for recreational play with an acceptable risk of ruin.
It's not enough if it's a bankroll where you intend to take money out off to live from.

Rake is 5% capped at £5. There's no way i'd be buying in for full amount with a BR this low, and people seem to think 20 buy ins minimum is the way to go. I think i'd have a significant edge at the games because I'm going to be playing/studying full time, so variance will be lowered that way. Should I grind online to £4k before playing, and buy in @ 50BB? Also, I'd only be paying for train tickets, thats my only expenses, which is only like £7 a day.
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Old 05-19-2019, 09:21 AM   #23763
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Re: Bankroll for 1/1 games UK?

That's the same rake as at my casino, I'm shortstacking it and think it can be beat that way, but your hourly will probably be low at 1/1.
20 100bb buyins is plenty, losing 20 buyins in a row live is a pretty monumental downswing if you're a halfway decent player :P.

You shouldn't take money out of it though untill you reach a bankroll where your risk of ruin is very small.
Try inputting your projected winrate into a variance simulator to get a rough idea of at what moment your bankroll has grown sufficient to start taking money out of it.
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Old 05-19-2019, 02:02 PM   #23764
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Re: Bankroll for 1/1 games UK?

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Originally Posted by Ponnie View Post
That's the same rake as at my casino, I'm shortstacking it and think it can be beat that way, but your hourly will probably be low at 1/1.
20 100bb buyins is plenty, losing 20 buyins in a row live is a pretty monumental downswing if you're a halfway decent player :P.

You shouldn't take money out of it though untill you reach a bankroll where your risk of ruin is very small.
Try inputting your projected winrate into a variance simulator to get a rough idea of at what moment your bankroll has grown sufficient to start taking money out of it.
Thanks for the response I really don't have anything to spend money on, so being disciplined with not taking money out of the roll shouldn't be an issue. The one thing im confused about is how my hourly will look, because 400 BB max buy-in at 1/1 seems pretty huge, especially considering its pounds, but then again, I really am unsure of what is common for live poker buy-ins.
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Old 05-19-2019, 05:12 PM   #23765
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It's pretty deep and I can't imagine a lot of fish buying in 400 bb deep.
If they do and you're confident in your game go ahead and get in deep with them as well.
The deeper you are the better your hourly can be, but if there are better players at the table it can turn a positive hourly into a negative one real quick :P.
Theres no reason to sit that deep if the only players that are deep as well are good regs.
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Old 05-27-2019, 04:51 AM   #23766
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Help with Bankroll Management and Std Deviation

I’ve been playing online for a while and in this year I’ve started making some shoots on LiveNL in Spain.

I have something between 80-90 hours with 25€/h (it’s a small sample, I know) and not sure if this is my real WR.
But I do want to start grinding it more regularly.

Till now i’m not using any bankroll management because it was more fun playing, so I’ve been keeping like 1 buyin (110bb) each month from my salary to play.

Now I have a small bank of €1k and want to know what should I have to play with a less than 5% ROR.

Just not sure how to properly calculate my std deviation.

I assume that if I play something like 30hands/h, I could simulate with a 5bb/100 WR and tryed with a 80bb/100 std deviation (I usually avoid complex situations and big pots if I can, because the game seens soft and I’m not taking big risks without a decent bankroll).

Want to know from more experienced live players if it is any close to reality.

This calculator suggests me a 2k bb bankroll (€4.000).

Thanks!


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Old 05-27-2019, 05:56 AM   #23767
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Re: Help with Bankroll Management and Std Deviation

Forgot to say it is €1/€2, sorry!
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Old 05-27-2019, 09:01 PM   #23768
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Re: Help with Bankroll Management and Std Deviation

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Originally Posted by vini.barbosa View Post
Forgot to say it is €1/€2, sorry!
I believe around €4K would be around 5% ROR -- most of the time people around here use 20 buyins as the correct metric, as a 20 buyin downswing should be fairly unlikely for someone winning at a significant clip.

It's been a while since I've done the actual math, maybe somebody else will chime in with the real ROR calc.

I don't necessarily think that's a reason to not play -- if you enjoy playing and have the extra money to risk (if you're able to save €200 out of your salary each pay period and put it into your bankroll) then I think it's fine to have a higher ROR but a replenishable bankroll. Just be aware that losing €1K in this game would be a totally normal thing to happen, even if you're winning, even if you're crushing.
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Old 05-27-2019, 09:45 PM   #23769
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What do you guys think is a sustainable hourly for $1/$2? I come from an online background where the best players make around 5bb/100.
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Old 05-27-2019, 09:57 PM   #23770
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DooDooPoker View Post
What do you guys think is a sustainable hourly for $1/$2? I come from an online background where the best players make around 5bb/100.
$20-$30 for the best players.
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Old 05-27-2019, 10:13 PM   #23771
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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
$20-$30 for the best players.
How many hours do you think "need" to get a somewhat accurate idea of what your hourly is?
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Old 05-27-2019, 10:28 PM   #23772
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DooDooPoker View Post
How many hours do you think "need" to get a somewhat accurate idea of what your hourly is?
My rough estimate is this:

500 hours - pretty clear idea.
1000 hours - 70-80% clear idea.
2000 hours - should be reasonably clear although of course there’s still going to be some variance over 2000 hour chunks.

2000 hours is my current goal for this purpose. At 600+ hours in I have a pretty good idea of what’s reasonable to expect.
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Old 05-27-2019, 10:46 PM   #23773
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Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
My rough estimate is this:

500 hours - pretty clear idea.
1000 hours - 70-80% clear idea.
2000 hours - should be reasonably clear although of course there’s still going to be some variance over 2000 hour chunks.

2000 hours is my current goal for this purpose. At 600+ hours in I have a pretty good idea of what’s reasonable to expect.
Thanks - I just started playing live again after studying a ton online for the past year. The game plays very different but it is fun adapting to it.

My main take away so far - preflop aggression. Limping is almost never a good idea online but live it is mandatory.
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Old 05-27-2019, 10:56 PM   #23774
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

25 hands @ 2000 hrs is still only 50K hands, but seems reasonable to me.
Obviously losing or winning a handful of 1K pots will swing things one way or the other pretty quick, but your WR evens out after 500+ hours unless you have amazing/awful consecutive sessions.

And yeah, punish the limpers whenever possible. Or join them when you can’t, but you have a position/skill edge.
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Old 05-27-2019, 11:38 PM   #23775
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
$20-$30 for the best players.
You might be right.
But if you are, "besr" means top 1% of quality winning regs.

And for context "quality winning regs" might be only the top 1 % - 2% of players.
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