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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

05-19-2019 , 09:21 AM
That's the same rake as at my casino, I'm shortstacking it and think it can be beat that way, but your hourly will probably be low at 1/1.
20 100bb buyins is plenty, losing 20 buyins in a row live is a pretty monumental downswing if you're a halfway decent player :P.

You shouldn't take money out of it though untill you reach a bankroll where your risk of ruin is very small.
Try inputting your projected winrate into a variance simulator to get a rough idea of at what moment your bankroll has grown sufficient to start taking money out of it.
05-19-2019 , 02:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponnie Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
That's the same rake as at my casino, I'm shortstacking it and think it can be beat that way, but your hourly will probably be low at 1/1.
20 100bb buyins is plenty, losing 20 buyins in a row live is a pretty monumental downswing if you're a halfway decent player :P.

You shouldn't take money out of it though untill you reach a bankroll where your risk of ruin is very small.
Try inputting your projected winrate into a variance simulator to get a rough idea of at what moment your bankroll has grown sufficient to start taking money out of it.
Thanks for the response I really don't have anything to spend money on, so being disciplined with not taking money out of the roll shouldn't be an issue. The one thing im confused about is how my hourly will look, because 400 BB max buy-in at 1/1 seems pretty huge, especially considering its pounds, but then again, I really am unsure of what is common for live poker buy-ins.
05-19-2019 , 05:12 PM
It's pretty deep and I can't imagine a lot of fish buying in 400 bb deep.
If they do and you're confident in your game go ahead and get in deep with them as well.
The deeper you are the better your hourly can be, but if there are better players at the table it can turn a positive hourly into a negative one real quick :P.
Theres no reason to sit that deep if the only players that are deep as well are good regs.
05-27-2019 , 04:51 AM
Ive been playing online for a while and in this year Ive started making some shoots on LiveNL in Spain.

I have something between 80-90 hours with 25/h (its a small sample, I know) and not sure if this is my real WR.
But I do want to start grinding it more regularly.

Till now im not using any bankroll management because it was more fun playing, so Ive been keeping like 1 buyin (110bb) each month from my salary to play.

Now I have a small bank of 1k and want to know what should I have to play with a less than 5% ROR.

Just not sure how to properly calculate my std deviation.

I assume that if I play something like 30hands/h, I could simulate with a 5bb/100 WR and tryed with a 80bb/100 std deviation (I usually avoid complex situations and big pots if I can, because the game seens soft and Im not taking big risks without a decent bankroll).

Want to know from more experienced live players if it is any close to reality.

This calculator suggests me a 2k bb bankroll (4.000).

Thanks!


05-27-2019 , 05:56 AM
Forgot to say it is 1/2, sorry!
05-27-2019 , 09:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vini.barbosa Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Forgot to say it is 1/2, sorry!
I believe around 4K would be around 5% ROR -- most of the time people around here use 20 buyins as the correct metric, as a 20 buyin downswing should be fairly unlikely for someone winning at a significant clip.

It's been a while since I've done the actual math, maybe somebody else will chime in with the real ROR calc.

I don't necessarily think that's a reason to not play -- if you enjoy playing and have the extra money to risk (if you're able to save 200 out of your salary each pay period and put it into your bankroll) then I think it's fine to have a higher ROR but a replenishable bankroll. Just be aware that losing 1K in this game would be a totally normal thing to happen, even if you're winning, even if you're crushing.
05-27-2019 , 09:45 PM
What do you guys think is a sustainable hourly for $1/$2? I come from an online background where the best players make around 5bb/100.
05-27-2019 , 09:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
What do you guys think is a sustainable hourly for $1/$2? I come from an online background where the best players make around 5bb/100.
$20-$30 for the best players.
05-27-2019 , 10:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
$20-$30 for the best players.
How many hours do you think "need" to get a somewhat accurate idea of what your hourly is?
05-27-2019 , 10:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
How many hours do you think "need" to get a somewhat accurate idea of what your hourly is?
My rough estimate is this:

500 hours - pretty clear idea.
1000 hours - 70-80% clear idea.
2000 hours - should be reasonably clear although of course theres still going to be some variance over 2000 hour chunks.

2000 hours is my current goal for this purpose. At 600+ hours in I have a pretty good idea of whats reasonable to expect.
05-27-2019 , 10:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
My rough estimate is this:

500 hours - pretty clear idea.
1000 hours - 70-80% clear idea.
2000 hours - should be reasonably clear although of course theres still going to be some variance over 2000 hour chunks.

2000 hours is my current goal for this purpose. At 600+ hours in I have a pretty good idea of whats reasonable to expect.
Thanks - I just started playing live again after studying a ton online for the past year. The game plays very different but it is fun adapting to it.

My main take away so far - preflop aggression. Limping is almost never a good idea online but live it is mandatory.
05-27-2019 , 10:56 PM
25 hands @ 2000 hrs is still only 50K hands, but seems reasonable to me.
Obviously losing or winning a handful of 1K pots will swing things one way or the other pretty quick, but your WR evens out after 500+ hours unless you have amazing/awful consecutive sessions.

And yeah, punish the limpers whenever possible. Or join them when you can’t, but you have a position/skill edge.
05-27-2019 , 11:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
$20-$30 for the best players.
You might be right.
But if you are, "besr" means top 1% of quality winning regs.

And for context "quality winning regs" might be only the top 1 % - 2% of players.
05-28-2019 , 06:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlindingLaser Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
I believe around 4K would be around 5% ROR -
(...)

I don't necessarily think that's a reason to not play -- if you enjoy playing and have the extra money to risk (if you're able to save 200 out of your salary each pay period and put it into your bankroll) then I think it's fine to have a higher ROR but a replenishable bankroll. Just be aware that losing 1K in this game would be a totally normal thing to happen, even if you're winning, even if you're crushing.

Thank you!

Im pretty confortable playing with a capped bankroll with the reloads from my salary.
What do you think it would be a normal swing for 300hours?
05-28-2019 , 09:20 AM
So for 300 hours/10,000 hands, assuming you're actually winning 5bb/100, you'll on average have won €1K -- I believe you could have won or lost anywhere between about -€3K and +€5K and still have a true winrate of 5bb/100. It becomes less likely that your true winrate is 5bb/100 the further away your observed results are from €1K over 10,000 hands, but keep in mind 10,000 hands is a drop in the bucket.

Around 100,000 hands (so if you get 600 hours a year, about five years from now) you can be a lot more certain of your winrate/whether you're winning. You'd also have lost a lot if you're actually losing 5bb/100 (about €10K!)
06-01-2019 , 08:52 AM
Just wanted to let everyone know the Doom Switch does exist. And it's maddening.

Capped it off last night losing aces full of jacks to a royal flush. Because why not. (And no we don't have any bad beat or high hand promos.)



Taking some days off and going to find a way to blow some steam off. Then moving down in stakes until my Vegas trip in 2 weeks. Maybe even hit a few donkaments to get my mind off things.

Marsh
06-01-2019 , 09:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AcePlayerDeluxe Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Im pretty comfortable playing 2/5 with a 5k roll. If I were to drop 4 BI's there consecutively then I go back down and grind again. 10k roll for 2/5 is plenty though. If you want to be a very conservative person though more can never hurt.
Ditto. I started playing 2/5 almost full time when I hit around $6-8k. I don't recall the exact number, but it wasn't anywhere near 20 (max) BIs. I had 20 min BIs, however (and I did min buy for the most part).

I just figured I was good enough at that point that I wouldn't go broke and could escape the 1/3 rake trap.
06-01-2019 , 09:32 AM
You have such en enormous edge as a good player at 1/2, it isn't even comparable to online.
Just going from 5bb/100 to 10bb/100 has a huge effect on your variance and live the winrate could be as high as 30bb/100 if you are actually making 20 an hour.
20 an hour seems like a lot for 1/2 so let's halve that and say 10 ann hour, that still a good 15bb/100 which changes a variance graph a lot.
06-01-2019 , 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarshMan114 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Just wanted to let everyone know the Doom Switch does exist. And it's maddening.

Capped it off last night losing aces full of jacks to a royal flush. Because why not. (And no we don't have any bad beat or high hand promos.)



Taking some days off and going to find a way to blow some steam off. Then moving down in stakes until my Vegas trip in 2 weeks. Maybe even hit a few donkaments to get my mind off things.

Marsh
Ouch sorry. A little break will help.
06-01-2019 , 04:08 PM
Bad beat jackpots are such a terrible waste of money. The difference between a BBJ room and a HH room is probably easily at least $5/h win-rate (I count a BBJ as $0/h because variance is too high to count on it) and HH are just as good, if not better at attracting fish than a BBJ. HH also cause fish to misplay hands more frequently. At 1|2 I see people open-raise anything from 63s to AA to $5 to make sure the pot is big enough to qualify just in case they hit. They slow-play almost any hand that has outs to a high hand. Some of them limp big pairs because they're afraid everyone will fold to a raise and they'll miss out on the high hand. People will soft-play you and check it down because they don't even care about winning your money, only the HH. Any 1|2 players serious about making money should avoid BBJs and play in rooms with only HHs.

It doesn't matter as much at 2|5 because it's going to account for a relatively small fraction of your win-rate and fish aren't adjusting their play as much to try to hit promotions.
06-01-2019 , 05:25 PM
Not to mention the extra $100 or $200 that goes into play immediately when a HH hits and they pay out in chips. HH >> BBJ
06-03-2019 , 12:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponnie Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
You have such en enormous edge as a good player at 1/2, it isn't even comparable to online.
Just going from 5bb/100 to 10bb/100 has a huge effect on your variance and live the winrate could be as high as 30bb/100 if you are actually making 20 an hour.
20 an hour seems like a lot for 1/2 so let's halve that and say 10 ann hour, that still a good 15bb/100 which changes a variance graph a lot.
This is imprecise -- the variance is the variance, regardless of what your winrate is. Just because more of the distribution is in the positive numbers doesn't decrease the variance...if anything, higher winrate tends to mean higher variance (because for the higher winrate, your opponents will frequently be making bad but highly variant plays).
06-03-2019 , 09:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlindingLaser Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
This is imprecise -- the variance is the variance, regardless of what your winrate is. Just because more of the distribution is in the positive numbers doesn't decrease the variance...if anything, higher winrate tends to mean higher variance (because for the higher winrate, your opponents will frequently be making bad but highly variant plays).
No.. you think a 10bb winner will have more variance than a 1bb winner? Really? Just think about it man
06-03-2019 , 11:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kekeeke Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
No.. you think a 10bb winner will have more variance than a 1bb winner? Really? Just think about it man
You should google what variance means.
06-04-2019 , 08:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
You should google what variance means.
^^ This. If you think variance is anything other than standard deviation squared, you're incorrect.

Obviously the way we "feel" or "perceive" variance involves whether we're winning or losing, and that tends to be a common definition on poker forums, but like I said, how you feel has nothing to do with it, and it's even possible/likely that the bigger a winner you are in the game, the more variance you experience.

Think about a game where your opponent open shoves a 100bb stack every hand. This is probably among the best poker games you could ever get, but the variance is higher than your normal game. Do you see why?

      
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