Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-01-2019, 02:28 AM   #23676
acescracked84
old hand
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Beautiful Southern California
Posts: 1,420
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by typesick View Post
Hmmm, probably a small amount. It was actually a good amount higher until the last week or so. Got a little out of line in some big pots deep. But yeah, obviously have no complaints overall. Could certainly take a dip.
you're the same person that was claiming "multiple people" beat 5/10 commerce for $100/hr. Who are you? If I don't know you in LA I have a hard time with your claims

Last edited by Garick; 05-01-2019 at 07:35 AM. Reason: removed insults, warning given
acescracked84 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 05:36 AM   #23677
typesick
centurion
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 115
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

First of all, why are you so mad? Secondly, I said very good regs can beat those LA games for more than $100/hr. It's true. Heck, Bart Hanson even made his results public where he earned over $100/hr for 3 consecutive 500 hour periods. What's more likely...that Bart is the luckiest person in the world...or that the games are simply beatable for greater than $100/hr? And why don't you know who I am? Well, for starters, I don't live in LA. Who are you?

Last edited by Garick; 05-01-2019 at 07:36 AM. Reason: scrubbed quote of insult
typesick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 07:18 AM   #23678
iraisetoomuch
banned
 
iraisetoomuch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 34,456
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Continued jabbing at people will result in temp bans. So stop it.
iraisetoomuch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 08:05 AM   #23679
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Some people seem to get offended any time that its suggested that win rates can go as high as X, because they know they cant make X. It makes them feel inferior so they argue that X is impossible. Arguing makes them feel better about their own results.

The fact is that most people posting here are very ABC players. Many are way too tight and nitty. Some of these same people argue that you can do this or that profitably.

For example, they say:

You cant raise SCs in EP profitably
You cant donk into the raiser profitably
You cant raise JT in MP with 3 short stacks behind you.....ect ect

Player A argues that these things and many other non standard things can be done profitably and Player A argues that win rate caps are X

Player B argues that those foreign things can never be done profitably and win rate caps are much lower than X

Then you would think if player B was smart and would open his mind he might see the error of his ways.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 08:17 AM   #23680
OvertlySexual
old hand
 
OvertlySexual's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 1,527
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think that games with deeper blind levels can lead to increased win rates. I also think I made a mistake all this time buying for 100B when my games allowed to buy for 200BB. Then again, I felt I had to be conservative with my bankroll.

OTOH, in the 2-5 games I play, especially this time of year, I can't understand how people can win for $70/hr. Not only are they reg-infested, but the weak players playing are battle-hardened and the mistakes they make are not as big.

Recently I started mixing 1-3 sessions and it's unbelievable how easier they are. They may be 60% of the stakes, but the skill level is like 30% of what it is at 2-5. There usually is a whale that has gotten hot and has a huge stack, a few big fishes, a few small fishes and a few weak reg who are nowhere near the skill level of the 2-5 regs.

I am legit thinking I can win for 15BB/hr at this game, but I am not sure I can I beat the 2-5 for 10BB/hr, especially if I am buying for 100BB.
OvertlySexual is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 08:29 AM   #23681
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by OvertlySexual View Post
I think that games with deeper blind levels can lead to increased win rates. I also think I made a mistake all this time buying for 100B when my games allowed to buy for 200BB. Then again, I felt I had to be conservative with my bankroll.

OTOH, in the 2-5 games I play, especially this time of year, I can't understand how people can win for $70/hr. Not only are they reg-infested, but the weak players playing are battle-hardened and the mistakes they make are not as big.

Recently I started mixing 1-3 sessions and it's unbelievable how easier they are. They may be 60% of the stakes, but the skill level is like 30% of what it is at 2-5. There usually is a whale that has gotten hot and has a huge stack, a few big fishes, a few small fishes and a few weak reg who are nowhere near the skill level of the 2-5 regs.

I am legit thinking I can win for 15BB/hr at this game, but I am not sure I can I beat the 2-5 for 10BB/hr, especially if I am buying for 100BB.
Not sure where you play but some places are very seasonal. Here in S. Florida, win rates are easily 30%+ higher during snowbird season.

Im not as convinced that win rates are much higher in 200BB games as everyone else is. I admit that I could be wrong, but when I play in 200BB max games, I don't see much different going on than in the 100BB max games. I dont see people maximizing FE by making huge bets and I rarely see two 200BB+ stacks getting all in. If I was to guess Id say I see it once every 30+ hours.

Of course I play during the daytime. I hear stories of huge pots being played after midnight quite often. If youre playing most of your hours after midnight, win rate caps could be even higher.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 08:34 AM   #23682
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,620
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

In my new city, there is usually one 2/5 table and infinite 1/3 tables. I am 100% convinced that my expected hourly in dollars (not just BBs) is higher at 1/3.

I mix in some 2/5 hours to get used to it, but if I were playing for a living I would just stick with 1/3. There are no wales at 2/5 here, they are all playing PLO.
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 08:37 AM   #23683
El Barbero
grinder
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 409
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Some people seem to get offended any time that its suggested that win rates can go as high as X, because they know they cant make X. It makes them feel inferior so they argue that X is impossible. Arguing makes them feel better about their own results.

The fact is that most people posting here are very ABC players. Many are way too tight and nitty. Some of these same people argue that you can do this or that profitably.

For example, they say:

You cant raise SCs in EP profitably
You cant donk into the raiser profitably
You cant raise JT in MP with 3 short stacks behind you.....ect ect

Player A argues that these things and many other non standard things can be done profitably and Player A argues that win rate caps are X

Player B argues that those foreign things can never be done profitably and win rate caps are much lower than X

Then you would think if player B was smart and would open his mind he might see the error of his ways.
Love this post.

I don't have enough experience playing the current games to opine on the max win rate. But I'm sure as crap not going to look at typesticks results and blindly assume he runs good with no other information to validate that crazy assertion.

I mean if we realize that we are playing against an opponents range and not a specific hand, why can't we realize typesticks actual win rate is also a range where the top end is something higher that his 500 hour results and the bottom end is something lower than those results.

I'm confused at why people are tripped up by this.
El Barbero is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 09:07 AM   #23684
iraisetoomuch
banned
 
iraisetoomuch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 34,456
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Becasue the vast majority of people who have 500 hour runs like that are not that good. Most are on a heater.

He may be that good in the long run, but it would be the top .5% of winning players probably.

Or said differently, the number of people who experience a 500 hour win rate of 20+bb/hr >>>>>>>>>>>>>> the number of people who will have a lifetime win rate of 20bb/hr.

So odds and all.
iraisetoomuch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 09:29 AM   #23685
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I agree that Typesick is probably on a heater. I cant imagine $120/hr at 2/5 is possible long term, but there's a huge gap between $70 and $120. The cap is most likely somewhere in the middle.

Anther thing....I see people post in the strat forum all the time that the majority of all your money is made in low-mid stakes by value betting. I disagree. I think you can increase your win rate by 50%+ by learning when / where to bluff. Ive only recently started getting good at it, and I know what I'm seeing in my results.

The win rate cap for a good ABC TAG playing 2/5 may be 7-8BBs, but once you open up your game, learn to exploit people, play LAGier, bluff more....the limits are much higher than what the good ABC TAG can imagine.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 10:26 AM   #23686
squid face
ChatThreadPrez
 
squid face's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: grabbin c-notes from the money tree
Posts: 10,277
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by typesick View Post
Curious. How did your Venetian winrate compare to your Florida winrate?

They are very similar. HOWEVER

when I was in vegas I was preparing to pay for my kids college education. I was 100% focused in playing my best game possible. I also did a fair amt of work away from the table and had the mindset that I needed to destroy in order to provide

After BF I told my wife I had 2-3 years of live poker in me. I had already spent an absolute ton of time in those dumps playing advantage blackjack and really prefer not to be in a casino environment

When I got to Florida I was quite burned out. I had already far exceeded the 2-3 years. My kids college was set and I had little motivation. I still discussed hands but I was no longer really trying to be a serial killer. My session lengths were significantly shorter and my drive was not there.

I always try to do my best and bring my A+ game...but in all honesty I did not achieve that in florida and still managed to knock back north of 50 per

That being said I played an absolute ton of online poker and worked my ass off getting good at the stakes I played
squid face is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 12:04 PM   #23687
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,407
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by AngryDingo View Post
Running really bad to start my live poker journey...I feel like I'm playing well, I'm definitely never tilting, I'm rolled for the games I play, but it's hard to gain any traction when you just get coolered like twice a session... And I'm talking actual coolers like I've been overset 3x in the last 2 sessions on dry boards, jammed river with AA vs a guy who never played poker before tonight only to find out he was calling down with third pair the whole way and spiked a 3 on the river to make 2 pair with 83s... Guy thought he lost and was about to push his chips over... Hit nut straight on river later only to jam into his rivered backdoor flush 5 high no pair no draw flop float....

Sigh I wanna post a sweet results graph too but the run bad is too much. Lol live poker
My suggestion would be to post hands and get feedback, especially in any "cooler" hands or "unlucky" hands; it's possible they aren't nearly as coolerish/unlucky as you think. And even just some other hands in general, as you might not be playing nearly as well as you think (especially if coolers have affected you mentally).

GgoodluckG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 10:09 PM   #23688
AAJTo
grinder
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 468
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Month #2 coming back to poker.

+834 profit. 48 hours played.

Trying to make an occasional big bluff to get my bigger hands paid and to practice putting more money in the pot. 2 of my 5 triple barrels worked and 1 big river reraise didnt work. Would probably be up 1300ish if I wasnt making these kind of moves but I feel they are necissary.
AAJTo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 10:30 PM   #23689
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,884
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Only 4 sessions in April, only one longer than 1.5 hours.

+$396 over 9.1 hours. And I've never been sadder about a $43/hr winrate.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 11:07 PM   #23690
browni3141
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 5,145
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by AAJTo View Post
Month #2 coming back to poker.

+834 profit. 48 hours played.

Trying to make an occasional big bluff to get my bigger hands paid and to practice putting more money in the pot. 2 of my 5 triple barrels worked and 1 big river reraise didnt work. Would probably be up 1300ish if I wasnt making these kind of moves but I feel they are necissary.
How are they "necessary?" If they are profitable you should be doing it. If they're not you shouldn't.

1/3 bluffs succeeding might not be too bad depending on your sizing if they couldn't win at showdown, although a 6 hand sample size obviously doesn't mean anything at all.

I think my triple barrels and bluff raises work more than half the time, but I'm extremely selective about them.
browni3141 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 11:11 PM   #23691
AAJTo
grinder
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 468
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
How are they "necessary?" If they are profitable you should be doing it. If they're not you shouldn't.

1/3 bluffs succeeding might not be too bad depending on your sizing if they couldn't win at showdown, although a 6 hand sample size obviously doesn't mean anything at all.

I think my triple barrels and bluff raises work more than half the time, but I'm extremely selective about them.
My goal isnt to stay at 1/3 my entire life. I am trying to get comfy moving chips around because I breath too heavy when I have big hands.
AAJTo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2019, 12:17 AM   #23692
branch0095
adept
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 901
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

A brutal April for me. Ran bad, played worse, and even had to force myself to take a 10 day break to clear my head. Break even for the month over 60hrs before taking the break. Still at $26hr over 330hrs of 1-2 $400max for the year. Here's hoping I can get my head back on straight and get back on track in May.
branch0095 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2019, 12:42 AM   #23693
browni3141
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 5,145
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by AAJTo View Post
My goal isnt to stay at 1/3 my entire life. I am trying to get comfy moving chips around because I breath too heavy when I have big hands.
It helps me to focus on making the right decisions and trying not to care about whether they call/fold against my bets. After an all-in I just mentally clock out and think about something not poker related while they tank. I don't think it's effective to consciously make bad plays.

Also, if you wanna move up, it'll be faster if you're not punting buy-ins in bad spots just because you want to get more comfortable in large pots/bluffing.

Big bluffs absolutely should be part of your game at 1|2 and 1|3, but don't force it just for the sake of experience. Enough spots should come up naturally that you shouldn't need to force things.
browni3141 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2019, 01:40 AM   #23694
AAJTo
grinder
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 468
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
It helps me to focus on making the right decisions and trying not to care about whether they call/fold against my bets. After an all-in I just mentally clock out and think about something not poker related while they tank. I don't think it's effective to consciously make bad plays.

Also, if you wanna move up, it'll be faster if you're not punting buy-ins in bad spots just because you want to get more comfortable in large pots/bluffing.

Big bluffs absolutely should be part of your game at 1|2 and 1|3, but don't force it just for the sake of experience. Enough spots should come up naturally that you shouldn't need to force things.
I never said I was forcing it or triple barreling in bad spots. I am trying these moves (mostly) on the right people with the right board but I know some regs just know when I have a huge hand and a triple barrel without heavy breathing makes it obvious to some. In the hours Ive played with the amount of times that I said Ive tried I thought that was more clear.
AAJTo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2019, 12:29 PM   #23695
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,407
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Only 4 sessions in April, only one longer than 1.5 hours.
How come the mini-sessions? To me that's like getting our golf clubs in the car, head to the golf course, getting all ready, playing the first 2 holes, and then calling it a day.

If I can't play for at least 5 hours, I don't even bother showing up.

Gjustme?G
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2019, 12:47 PM   #23696
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,884
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
How come the mini-sessions? To me that's like getting our golf clubs in the car, head to the golf course, getting all ready, playing the first 2 holes, and then calling it a day.

If I can't play for at least 5 hours, I don't even bother showing up.

Gjustme?G
Had to work downtown in Detroit for basically an entire week (conference). So of course I stayed at 2 different Casinos for three nights. Figured I'd be able to get a couple of decent sessions in after everything in the evenings ... didn't work out that way.

Not going to drive anywhere for a short session.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2019, 01:21 PM   #23697
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,620
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My average session length goes way down when I'm playing within a 30 minute drive. I almost never play more than 5 hours even when it's not, though. My back and my concentration give out about then.
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2019, 01:33 PM   #23698
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,407
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

*ETA: winrates, lol.

My PokerJournal states:

569 1/3 NL Sessions

<= 1 hour: 2 ($78.55/hr)
1 - 2 hours: 9 ($58.86)
2 - 3 hours: 3 ($26.93)
3 - 4 hours: 4 ($29.22)
4 - 5 hours: 9 ($33.04)

So 27 of my 569 sessions (4.7%) are 5 hours or less. Pretty sure almost all of those were my wife dropping me off at poker daycare while she shopped during out-of-town trips, and maybe a couple of Vegas room hops.

Played a 5.75 hour session last night thanks to a bit of a wait to get on a table after work and it felt like nothing. Ship the $46, lol.

ETA:

lol

5 - 6 hours: 77 ($24.19)
6 - 7 hours: 182 ($23.16)
7 - 8 hours: 34 ($5.11)
8 - 9 hours: 27 ($18.42)
9 - 10 hours: 80 ($18.88)
10 - 11 hours: 70 ($19.45)
11 - 12 hours: 46 ($23.49)
12+ hours: 26 ($21.34)

ETA: I should obviously never plan a 7 - 8 hour session and instead concentrate on my 0 - 2 hour hit-and-runs, lol.

GcluelessshortsessionsnoobG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 05-02-2019 at 01:57 PM.
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2019, 01:40 PM   #23699
branch0095
adept
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 901
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
My average session length goes way down when I'm playing within a 30 minute drive. I almost never play more than 5 hours even when it's not, though. My back and my concentration give out about then.
You sound just like me. Currently I live close to my home casino. I may sometimes play 6-8 hrs in a day, but it's broken up into 2 sessions with me going home for a few hours in between. Mostly a bunch of 3-4hr sessions.
branch0095 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2019, 01:44 PM   #23700
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,884
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I could probably filter my data and get some statistics about this if I really wanted to ...

But I can tell you that if I go to one of the charity rooms 15-20 mins away I'll tend to play about a 2-3 hour session (usually the game breaks or sucks by then) on average. If I'm driving to a casino 35-60 mins away I'm playing at least 5 hours unless there's a crazy cooler/heater happening.

It's the weird "at the casino for something else" sessions that are always odd.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:15 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive