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Old 04-30-2019, 10:11 AM   #23651
squid face
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
That's impressive for 2/5. Pretty insane heater for 500 hours.

What style do you play? What types of hands do you attribute most of your winrate to?

As other noted, this winrate is very likely the be unsustainable for 2/5 in the long run. Realistically even the best players can only make around $70/hr. at 2/5. But it's still nice to run well.
I am not a fan at all of broad sweeping generalizations. Why do people think 70 is the cap. I have not played in a while but my long term w/r playing in some not ossum games is well over 50. I play well but I know there are dudes out there that are smarter, work harder, and think about the game at a significantly deeper level.

I have logged an absolute ton of hours am friendly and quite observant. I have played and befriended a couple of dudes who blew my mind. They both claimed w/r that were over your stated max. I had zero issues believing them.
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Old 04-30-2019, 10:17 AM   #23652
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^ I think a large factor is the max buy-in.
For a 2/5 game with a 150-200bb cap, I can easily believe that the most elite players could rake in $100+ an hour. The thing that makes a really high WR in my game is that the cap is 100bb. In that structure I feel like $70+ an hour is almost impossible long term.
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Old 04-30-2019, 11:33 AM   #23653
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This discussion has come up periodically, and I think that win-rate scales with the average stack in the game a LOT more than it scales with the blinds. Especially when we're talking about a live game with non-professionals.
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Old 04-30-2019, 12:32 PM   #23654
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I think wr scales with the number of whales dumping on a weekly basis.
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Old 04-30-2019, 03:21 PM   #23655
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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
I am not a fan at all of broad sweeping generalizations. Why do people think 70 is the cap. I have not played in a while but my long term w/r playing in some not ossum games is well over 50. I play well but I know there are dudes out there that are smarter, work harder, and think about the game at a significantly deeper level.

I have logged an absolute ton of hours am friendly and quite observant. I have played and befriended a couple of dudes who blew my mind. They both claimed w/r that were over your stated max. I had zero issues believing them.
What years did they/you beat games for that high of an hourly? How deep were the games and where if you don't mind saying?
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Old 04-30-2019, 04:13 PM   #23656
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No disrespect to Squid, but one thing is for sure. There's no debate. The games are tougher now that they were in the past. So while Im sure Squid would still do well, he most likely would not win at the same rate as he did in the past.

I dont think $70/hr is the cap at 2/5 though. In fact Id bet a lot of money that's its not.
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Old 04-30-2019, 04:18 PM   #23657
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No disrespect to Squid, but one thing is for sure. There's no debate. The games are tougher now that they were in the past. So while Im sure Squid would still do well, he most likely would not win at the same rate as he did in the past.

I dont think $70/hr is the cap at 2/5 though. In fact Id bet a lot of money that's its not.

Are you agreeing with squid or disagreeing with squid? So the cap is lower than 70 or more?
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Old 04-30-2019, 04:20 PM   #23658
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^I very confidently feel that max buy-in/average stack is the most impacting factor on WR (beside the quality a play given Hero and V’s are, of course).
So a 2/5 with a 200bb max buy-in would be far more profitable than 100bb.
I’m guessing my WR would jump 30-35% if I could play a 200bb max buy regularly.
It’s honestly instantly noticeable for me how much faster I win when I’m at 150-200bb+ instead of just 100bb. All the correct decisions at 100bb are often straightforward, to the point where it can feel tedious.
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Old 04-30-2019, 04:23 PM   #23659
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2/5 with a 100bb cap a WR of $70 long term would be incredibly impressive.

2/5 with a 200bb cap a WR of $100+ long term I believe is definitely achievable by the cream of the crop type player.
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Old 04-30-2019, 04:34 PM   #23660
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My winrate at 2/5 NL is $75.16/hr (for realz) so story checks out.

But I've only played 1 session / 95 minutes.

GexpertG
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Old 04-30-2019, 05:16 PM   #23661
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Clearly average stacksize makes a gigantic difference in achievable winrate. Maybe even more so than skill. I mostly play a 5-5 where the max buyin is 2.5k or 500bb, and i'd say the average stack is around 1500.

I have ~400 hrs in my current database and im at €76,06/hr (I broke my previous phone which had ~700 hours recorded on it, winning i think around €60/hr in that sample). I'm also reasonably sure there are bigger winners than me in this game.

On the current sample i played seven 5k+ pots (1000+ bb's). I chopped one, lost one and won 5. If you do some quick math, you'll know that 1) i'm a luckbox who runs really well, and 2) around 1/3 of my profit over this current sample comes from these 7 pots.

So it seems highly likely that if i was playing in a 100bb max game, I would be winning <€50/hr. I guess i run good in that way also .
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Old 04-30-2019, 05:25 PM   #23662
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Are you agreeing with squid or disagreeing with squid? So the cap is lower than 70 or more?
Higher...depending on a number of factors.

If you only play Mon-Fri during the daytime at Aria, its lower than $70.

If you play most of your hours after 6PM at Hollywood Park or at Harrahs in New Orleans...its higher than $70.

If you play at most any room in S. Florida from Thanksgiving-Easter the cap is higher than $70. If you play at most rooms in S. Florida from Easter-Thanksgiving, the cap is lower.
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Old 04-30-2019, 05:55 PM   #23663
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I'm not convinced that stack depth is more important than blind levels. Regardless of blind levels I'd expect the normal table to have plenty 100 BB stacks. Most pots are not deep stack collisions. While these deep stack collisions can impact your WR substantially. I've had several sessions where I just won lots of small pots and posted a better WR than when I got it all in once or twice and ran well. Also, as stacks get deeper it's harder to get it all in over 3 streets unless it's 3 bet pre or there is significant action post. An average PFR size of $10 makes pots in my 1/2 games much smaller on average than an average PFR size of $25 at 2/5. Maybe one of the math guys can model how frequently you have to collide deep stacks to overcome the difference in blind and pot sizes. IMO a 1/2 game where everyone has $1k behind will play smaller and yield a smaller WR than a 2/5 game capped at $500 (100 BB). But some of that may depend on play style as well.

On the other hand I have been at 1/2 games where the average open was $20 and there were blind bets and straddles. In that case obviously things are different. I say all of this to say there are many factors that effect win rate and all things other things being equal comparing blind structure to stack depth is not a slam dunk.
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Old 04-30-2019, 06:20 PM   #23664
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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
I am not a fan at all of broad sweeping generalizations. Why do people think 70 is the cap. I have not played in a while but my long term w/r playing in some not ossum games is well over 50. I play well but I know there are dudes out there that are smarter, work harder, and think about the game at a significantly deeper level.

I have logged an absolute ton of hours am friendly and quite observant. I have played and befriended a couple of dudes who blew my mind. They both claimed w/r that were over your stated max. I had zero issues believing them.
Agreed. $70 is nowhere near the max. In 200bb games, $100+ winrates are very obtainable.

BTW, why did you choose to stop playing? Does your brown haired sidekick still play? Do you plan on returning to the game at any point?
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Old 04-30-2019, 06:25 PM   #23665
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Higher...depending on a number of factors.

If you only play Mon-Fri during the daytime at Aria, its lower than $70.

If you play most of your hours after 6PM at Hollywood Park or at Harrahs in New Orleans...its higher than $70.

If you play at most any room in S. Florida from Thanksgiving-Easter the cap is higher than $70. If you play at most rooms in S. Florida from Easter-Thanksgiving, the cap is lower.
I guess I'm confused. You mentioned in your first statement that squid was wrong because games are harder when he reference his/his friends over 50$ wr but then agreed with him in the second saying that way more than 70$ is possible. I must be reading something wrong here.
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Old 04-30-2019, 06:50 PM   #23666
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I guess I was responding to his statement "why do people think 70 is the cap?" He sounded pretty surprised that people think 70 is the cap.

I didn't mean he was wrong. I just meant that the games are tougher now than what he probably remembers so it makes sense that people think 70 (or lower) is the cap. There are surely many fewer people who could hit 70 now than when he was playing.

Very few people could hit 70 now, and unless they play in a room with some good action and play the right days and times, its not going to happen for anyone except the absolute best players.
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Old 04-30-2019, 07:39 PM   #23667
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Let's be honest here. Nobody has any idea what they are talking about when they speculate about the win-rate cap.

1. Game conditions across the country vary drastically. It's nonsense to claim an overall cap for the entire stake when we consider games with long term sustainable whale regs dumping hundreds of thousands a year and games that are nitfests in the same pool. It would be much more reasonable to claim a win-rate cap for a specific game, but it's still not likely possible to do so with any confidence because...

2. Nobody has enough of a sample size to even know their win-rate to the degree of precision we're arguing about, especially considering game conditions change over the span of time an accurate win-rate could be measured. How do we speculate on the cap when we can't even calculate our own win-rates with any precision?

3. Poker is still a relatively young game. Humans as a race have improved our knowledge of the game by leaps and bounds in the past decade or two. I'd speculate that even the best player in the world is likely not close to the level of play humans are capable of.

This isn't to say I don't think it's possible to calculate a win-rate cap. I think a smart computer programmer could do a pretty good job provided a decent sample of live hands from the player pool we want to measure. I don't think a human poker player is capable of reasonably making a claim with any level of confidence, though.
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Old 04-30-2019, 08:08 PM   #23668
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Agreed. $70 is nowhere near the max. In 200bb games, $100+ winrates are very obtainable.

BTW, why did you choose to stop playing? Does your brown haired sidekick still play? Do you plan on returning to the game at any point?
It has been about a year since I have last played. I still stay semi current in terms of discussing hands/reading up on thought processes etc. I am pretty much retired at this point. I have been very lucky career wise...and got wildly lucky last year working on a gamboolin project that set me up. So if I do not need to make money I have zero intentions of stepping inside of a casino again.

Gamboolin has been good to me in terms of how I have been able to structure my life. I am simply over it. I stopped playing poker when I was within spitting distance of my high water mark. What closed the deal for me was SPC broke her leg quite badly. I took time off to care for her. Suddenly it had been 4 months since I played. Some old gamboolin buds asked if I would be interested in workin on an interesting project...it panned out nicely.
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Old 04-30-2019, 08:11 PM   #23669
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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
Let's be honest here. Nobody has any idea what they are talking about when they speculate about the win-rate cap.

1. Game conditions across the country vary drastically. It's nonsense to claim an overall cap for the entire stake when we consider games with long term sustainable whale regs dumping hundreds of thousands a year and games that are nitfests in the same pool. It would be much more reasonable to claim a win-rate cap for a specific game, but it's still not likely possible to do so with any confidence because...

2. Nobody has enough of a sample size to even know their win-rate to the degree of precision we're arguing about, especially considering game conditions change over the span of time an accurate win-rate could be measured. How do we speculate on the cap when we can't even calculate our own win-rates with any precision?

3. Poker is still a relatively young game. Humans as a race have improved our knowledge of the game by leaps and bounds in the past decade or two. I'd speculate that even the best player in the world is likely not close to the level of play humans are capable of.

This isn't to say I don't think it's possible to calculate a win-rate cap. I think a smart computer programmer could do a pretty good job provided a decent sample of live hands from the player pool we want to measure. I don't think a human poker player is capable of reasonably making a claim with any level of confidence, though.
Who said anything about any level of precision?

We can easily speculate on the cap. Its more than I make. Its more than you make.
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Old 04-30-2019, 08:21 PM   #23670
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It has been about a year since I have last played. I still stay semi current in terms of discussing hands/reading up on thought processes etc. I am pretty much retired at this point. I have been very lucky career wise...and got wildly lucky last year working on a gamboolin project that set me up. So if I do not need to make money I have zero intentions of stepping inside of a casino again.

Gamboolin has been good to me in terms of how I have been able to structure my life. I am simply over it. I stopped playing poker when I was within spitting distance of my high water mark. What closed the deal for me was SPC broke her leg quite badly. I took time off to care for her. Suddenly it had been 4 months since I played. Some old gamboolin buds asked if I would be interested in workin on an interesting project...it panned out nicely.
You always seemed to approach the game the right way and took the proper mindset to the tables. Glad to see that it paid off for you. Very well deserved.
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Old 04-30-2019, 08:22 PM   #23671
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What years did they/you beat games for that high of an hourly? How deep were the games and where if you don't mind saying?
I somehow missed this. THe sample this is drawn from is Apr 15 2011 (black friday) till Apri of last year. It is a very large sample. The majority of it is from the Venetian which is a 200bb game. Second most volume is from Florida games which are also 200bb.

A pretty decent slug of these hours are during very non prime hours (mid week day time stuff). I was spending about 2/3 of my time in Vegas and 1/3 of my time in Utah.
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Old 04-30-2019, 08:25 PM   #23672
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You always seemed to approach the game the right way and took the proper mindset to the tables. Glad to see that it paid off for you. Very well deserved.
thank you for the kind words I really appreciate it. Your results are most impressive. Keep kicking ass my man!
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Old 04-30-2019, 09:14 PM   #23673
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Running really bad to start my live poker journey...I feel like I'm playing well, I'm definitely never tilting, I'm rolled for the games I play, but it's hard to gain any traction when you just get coolered like twice a session... And I'm talking actual coolers like I've been overset 3x in the last 2 sessions on dry boards, jammed river with AA vs a guy who never played poker before tonight only to find out he was calling down with third pair the whole way and spiked a 3 on the river to make 2 pair with 83s... Guy thought he lost and was about to push his chips over... Hit nut straight on river later only to jam into his rivered backdoor flush 5 high no pair no draw flop float....

Sigh I wanna post a sweet results graph too but the run bad is too much. Lol live poker
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Old 04-30-2019, 09:39 PM   #23674
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I somehow missed this. THe sample this is drawn from is Apr 15 2011 (black friday) till Apri of last year. It is a very large sample. The majority of it is from the Venetian which is a 200bb game. Second most volume is from Florida games which are also 200bb.

A pretty decent slug of these hours are during very non prime hours (mid week day time stuff). I was spending about 2/3 of my time in Vegas and 1/3 of my time in Utah.
Curious. How did your Venetian winrate compare to your Florida winrate?
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Old 04-30-2019, 09:45 PM   #23675
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
I am not a fan at all of broad sweeping generalizations. Why do people think 70 is the cap. I have not played in a while but my long term w/r playing in some not ossum games is well over 50. I play well but I know there are dudes out there that are smarter, work harder, and think about the game at a significantly deeper level.



I have logged an absolute ton of hours am friendly and quite observant. I have played and befriended a couple of dudes who blew my mind. They both claimed w/r that were over your stated max. I had zero issues believing them.
Agree with squid.

There is no cap, just probabilities. I've seen uncapped 5/5 games where I'm pretty sure absurd winrates (>100/hr) are possible, maybe even likely for top players. Lately I found a table stakes 1/2 game so laughably soft I think it is beatable for 60+, maybe more. The best players in this game would be spots where I usually play.

Also, the very best players win from everybody, not just fish. I think people just don't like the idea there may be some (very rare) players who are so much better than they are that traditional beliefs about winrate caps go out the window.
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