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Old 04-28-2019, 06:40 PM   #23626
MikeStarr
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by typesick View Post
Alright. Just hit the 500 hour mark for tracking and all action was at 2/5. Started tracking on 12/14 in large part because of this thread and here are the results:

http://imgur.com/a/ySQdu8D

Edit-having difficulty getting the image to post. Anyone know the issue?
That's one hell of a heater. I'm sure you're a really good player, but you have to know you're going to come back to earth at some point soon, right?
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Old 04-28-2019, 07:58 PM   #23627
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That's one hell of a heater. I'm sure you're a really good player, but you have to know you're going to come back to earth at some point soon, right?
Hmmm, probably a small amount. It was actually a good amount higher until the last week or so. Got a little out of line in some big pots deep. But yeah, obviously have no complaints overall. Could certainly take a dip.

Last edited by typesick; 04-28-2019 at 08:07 PM.
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Old 04-28-2019, 08:07 PM   #23628
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Holy ****! Nice results, typesick.
Thanks man.
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Old 04-28-2019, 08:56 PM   #23629
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Nice results! What happened before these 500 hours? Assume you must have thousands of hours tracked before these last 500 if have this good of results?


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Old 04-28-2019, 09:14 PM   #23630
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What are you guys using to track results?
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Old 04-28-2019, 11:42 PM   #23631
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What are you guys using to track results?
Paper. I'd use bodies like a real man, but that's frowned upon in this century.

I use a combination of a site called "check your bets" that I stared on a decade ago for a reason I can't remember, and a google sheet that I can update from anywhere.
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Old 04-29-2019, 12:46 AM   #23632
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Originally Posted by IntheNow View Post
Nice results! What happened before these 500 hours? Assume you must have thousands of hours tracked before these last 500 if have this good of results?


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I used to track years ago but stopped because I thought I was making too many decisions based on numbers. Not a winner on the day? Welp, better extend the length of the session so I can book a win. Finally an hourly at the exact amount I was striving for? Welp, better not risk this big all-in bluff, because if called, it'd be a big setback for the hourly. Eventually I just decided to stop tracking and focused on playing each hand as well as possible. Basically kept that strategy until I came across this thread and got tempted to do my own 500 hour challenge.

Last edited by typesick; 04-29-2019 at 01:03 AM.
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Old 04-29-2019, 01:01 AM   #23633
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just imagine that a 12BB/h winner has about the same chance of breaking even over the course of 500 hours as winning at 24BB/h. I don't recall ever having a 500 hour breakeven stretch, and I'm not a 12BB/h winner.
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Old 04-29-2019, 01:59 AM   #23634
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Quote:
Originally Posted by typesick View Post
Alright. Just hit the 500 hour mark for tracking and all action was at 2/5. Started tracking on 12/14 in large part because of this thread and here are the results:

http://imgur.com/a/ySQdu8D

Edit-having difficulty getting the image to post. Anyone know the issue?
Very impressive. Are these sessions spread across different markets? If not do you mind sharing what market they were? I'm not sure which is sicker, the 82% cash rate or the 24 BB/hr. Do your other comments imply that this was a one off challenge and you wont continue to track?
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Old 04-29-2019, 02:22 AM   #23635
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If you want to embed imgur, you right click on the image, then click view image. Once you see the whole image, you copy the web address ending in jpg.
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Old 04-29-2019, 07:39 AM   #23636
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Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
Very impressive. Are these sessions spread across different markets? If not do you mind sharing what market they were? I'm not sure which is sicker, the 82% cash rate or the 24 BB/hr. Do your other comments imply that this was a one off challenge and you wont continue to track?
I could be wrong, but I believe he plays in L.A. The games in L.A. are crazy soft. Soft like Ive never seen before....but nobody can beat 2/5 for $120/hr. Not even in L.A.

From what I saw out there I do believe $75-85/hr is possible. Maybe even a tad more, but $120? I dont believe it. No disrespect to Typesick at all though. He's clearly a beast to do that for even 500 hours.
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Old 04-29-2019, 10:09 AM   #23637
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I could be wrong, but I believe he plays in L.A. The games in L.A. are crazy soft. Soft like Ive never seen before....but nobody can beat 2/5 for $120/hr. Not even in L.A.

From what I saw out there I do believe $75-85/hr is possible. Maybe even a tad more, but $120? I dont believe it. No disrespect to Typesick at all though. He's clearly a beast to do that for even 500 hours.
would be hard considering the max buy for $2-3 is only $100 at commerce and $200 max buy for $3-5. $2-5 NL doesnt exist at commerce, it might in some other LA room im not thinking of at the moment.
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Old 04-29-2019, 12:01 PM   #23638
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All of the hours were logged in Florida and Vegas, with the vast majority being played at places with a 200bb max buy-in. Looking forward to keeping the tracking going.
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Old 04-29-2019, 01:58 PM   #23639
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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
Just imagine that a 12BB/h winner has about the same chance of breaking even over the course of 500 hours as winning at 24BB/h. I don't recall ever having a 500 hour breakeven stretch, and I'm not a 12BB/h winner.

So I used the pokerdope variance calc and according to that, the odds of breaking even over 500 hrs (15000 hands) with a 12bb/hr winrate is 0.05%. I used a 150bb/100 standard dev. Got that number from Ryan Fee's estimates of live variance. Odds are the same for having a 24bb/hr win rate

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I could be wrong, but I believe he plays in L.A. The games in L.A. are crazy soft. Soft like Ive never seen before....but nobody can beat 2/5 for $120/hr. Not even in L.A.

From what I saw out there I do believe $75-85/hr is possible. Maybe even a tad more, but $120? I dont believe it. No disrespect to Typesick at all though. He's clearly a beast to do that for even 500 hours.
I grind LA. Always hear it's softer than other places, but I really think that's exaggerated. For example, my 1k cap 5/5 game from Sunday had me and two other full time pros in it. There was a hand full of BE middle-aged types, and maybe just one person with zero clue. I wish I had other places to compare my experience to, but the only other places I've played were Venitian and Aria. I can say that the Aria games were pretty ****ty, but what I saw at Venitian didn't really differ greatly from what I see at the Bicycle on a regular basis. Furthermore, the Euro infestation here seems to get slightly worse every day. I mean, on average, it seems like ~8% of the playerpool here is made of foreign grinders. So sure, if you table select and only play Friday and Saturday nights, you might be able to beat $75/hr, but if you're putting in full-time hours, that's basically impossible.

Finally, @Typesick... really really, really fantastic results. Almost unbelievable, I'd say. It could be that I'm just jealous, but if your results continue and can somehow be verified, I'd pay you a handsome hourly for coaching.
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Old 04-29-2019, 02:27 PM   #23640
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All of the hours were logged in Florida and Vegas, with the vast majority being played at places with a 200bb max buy-in. Looking forward to keeping the tracking going.
Put me in the jealous camp as well. Great job man. I don’t think I could pull those numbers off if I got to get my cards out of the muck and play the river whenever I wanted.

Marsh
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Old 04-29-2019, 05:53 PM   #23641
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Originally Posted by typesick View Post
All of the hours were logged in Florida and Vegas, with the vast majority being played at places with a 200bb max buy-in. Looking forward to keeping the tracking going.
My bad. I know you've talked about L.A. 5/10 games and win rates in those games so I thought thats where you were.
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Old 04-29-2019, 05:56 PM   #23642
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Originally Posted by QuantumSurfer View Post
So I used the pokerdope variance calc and according to that, the odds of breaking even over 500 hrs (15000 hands) with a 12bb/hr winrate is 0.05%. I used a 150bb/100 standard dev. Got that number from Ryan Fee's estimates of live variance. Odds are the same for having a 24bb/hr win rate



I grind LA. Always hear it's softer than other places, but I really think that's exaggerated. For example, my 1k cap 5/5 game from Sunday had me and two other full time pros in it. There was a hand full of BE middle-aged types, and maybe just one person with zero clue. I wish I had other places to compare my experience to, but the only other places I've played were Venitian and Aria. I can say that the Aria games were pretty ****ty, but what I saw at Venitian didn't really differ greatly from what I see at the Bicycle on a regular basis. Furthermore, the Euro infestation here seems to get slightly worse every day. I mean, on average, it seems like ~8% of the playerpool here is made of foreign grinders. So sure, if you table select and only play Friday and Saturday nights, you might be able to beat $75/hr, but if you're putting in full-time hours, that's basically impossible.

Finally, @Typesick... really really, really fantastic results. Almost unbelievable, I'd say. It could be that I'm just jealous, but if your results continue and can somehow be verified, I'd pay you a handsome hourly for coaching.
I did see a few Euro pro looking guys when I was in L.A. not long ago, but the games I played in were so donk infested I couldnt believe my eyes. Just about every table had 4-5 Asians gambling it up. It was total insanity compared to my nit infested games.

And I never played past 8-9PM or on the weekend.
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Old 04-29-2019, 06:07 PM   #23643
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Quote:
Originally Posted by typesick View Post
Alright. Just hit the 500 hour mark for tracking and all action was at 2/5. Started tracking on 12/14 in large part because of this thread and here are the results:

http://imgur.com/a/ySQdu8D

Edit-having difficulty getting the image to post. Anyone know the issue?
That's impressive for 2/5. Pretty insane heater for 500 hours.

What style do you play? What types of hands do you attribute most of your winrate to?

As other noted, this winrate is very likely the be unsustainable for 2/5 in the long run. Realistically even the best players can only make around $70/hr. at 2/5. But it's still nice to run well.

Last edited by DumbosTrunk; 04-29-2019 at 06:18 PM.
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Old 04-29-2019, 06:29 PM   #23644
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I did see a few Euro pro looking guys when I was in L.A. not long ago, but the games I played in were so donk infested I couldnt believe my eyes. Just about every table had 4-5 Asians gambling it up. It was total insanity compared to my nit infested games.

And I never played past 8-9PM or on the weekend.
Where'd ya play at?
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Old 04-29-2019, 07:36 PM   #23645
typesick
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That's impressive for 2/5. Pretty insane heater for 500 hours.

What style do you play? What types of hands do you attribute most of your winrate to?

As other noted, this winrate is very likely the be unsustainable for 2/5 in the long run. Realistically even the best players can only make around $70/hr. at 2/5. But it's still nice to run well.
I just play the style I feel would be the most profitable at any given table and against any given opponent. It varies tremendously and I definitely go super exploitative at times. Most hands I play are value based but I will absolutely pound pots with whatever when ranges are defined. I have an extensive background in online 6m, so I’m sure I have significantly more experience navigating tough spots than over 99% or 2/5 players.

Last edited by typesick; 04-29-2019 at 07:47 PM.
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Old 04-29-2019, 08:15 PM   #23646
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Where'd ya play at?
Commerce
Bike
Hawaiian Gardens
Hollywood Park

I played a few sessions at each place and changed tables a few times to get a good sample of how the rooms played. Of the 4 rooms, The Bike was the toughest game I was in by far. If the games there tend to be like the one I was in, I would never play there if I was you. Commerce and Hollywood Park were complete donk fests.
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Old 04-29-2019, 08:48 PM   #23647
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Commerce
Bike
Hawaiian Gardens
Hollywood Park

I played a few sessions at each place and changed tables a few times to get a good sample of how the rooms played. Of the 4 rooms, The Bike was the toughest game I was in by far. If the games there tend to be like the one I was in, I would never play there if I was you. Commerce and Hollywood Park were complete donk fests.
Lol, most of my time is at the Bike. The 500 cap games are obviously softer, but I'm transitioning to 5/10, so I really don't see how playing with the worst players on the planet will condition me for higher stakes. For what it's worth, my hourly @ bike is higher than the other 5/5 games. The deeper buy in helps with that imo. Also, with such a high drop, playing bigger pots helps overcome the house.
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Old 04-29-2019, 11:31 PM   #23648
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What are they dropping at Commerce and the Bike these days?
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Old 04-30-2019, 12:56 AM   #23649
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For those of you thinking about moving to LA to make 10-20bbs hourly playing 5/5 and/or 5/10 please promise me you wont be upset if certain posters are exaggerating the softness of the games.

Typesick -> As far as results effecting your ability to play you may want to try recording your sessions but not looking at the overall results. That way, in case you want to see a bigger sample you can without seeing certain data points and making it effect your play.

Any chance you post any HH's of you getting out of line deep without giving away too much of your strat?

Last edited by 7weeks2days; 04-30-2019 at 01:05 AM.
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Old 04-30-2019, 08:07 AM   #23650
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Lol, most of my time is at the Bike. The 500 cap games are obviously softer, but I'm transitioning to 5/10, so I really don't see how playing with the worst players on the planet will condition me for higher stakes. For what it's worth, my hourly @ bike is higher than the other 5/5 games. The deeper buy in helps with that imo. Also, with such a high drop, playing bigger pots helps overcome the house.

Would you rather play T/25 with GTO european pokerstars robots or T/25 with the wealthy business men/gambly rich asians/1 other pro in the game....

I can tell you both games players are very different, but the amount of aggression is present and the population thought processes in regards to thin value and bluff catching (even if the recs don't know wtf those terms even are) are about the same, just one side of the aisle is playing chronically worse.

It's best for your winrate to play against the worst people possible with the most money lol.

Game selection is imperative to the preservation of one's winrate and bankroll.
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