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Old 09-11-2012, 07:23 PM   #2326
OoberSick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

waaiiiit a sec...





we should record our losses too?!?!?!?
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Old 09-11-2012, 07:51 PM   #2327
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I am on a 16BI down swing from highest point, 5 week break even stretch, and my WR dropped at least 1.5bb.

Candid enough?
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Old 09-11-2012, 08:29 PM   #2328
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Everyone is solid now, no money to be made. I have even seen Jamie Gold and Esfandiari come down and play 5/5.
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Old 09-11-2012, 08:32 PM   #2329
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when i read these absurd win rates, i kind of feel like they aren't including the losing sessions in calculating them.
But how much did....
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Old 09-11-2012, 08:35 PM   #2330
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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when i read these absurd win rates, i kind of feel like they aren't including the losing sessions in calculating them.
LOL how jealous can you get?
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Old 09-11-2012, 08:51 PM   #2331
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

While I'm not naive enough to think that $100/hour is my "rate", I can assure you that's my current heater lol. I've only been in Tampa for three months and the dealers are like... "You sure must love your job, because otherwise you're workin at the wrong place. I've never seen you lose here".

Only playing on weekends + Florida still being relatively new to NL poker = stupid easy games.

Edit: That being said, this is the internet, and I have no doubt the "Rule of 3" needs to be applied in some cases
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Old 09-11-2012, 11:14 PM   #2332
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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LOL how jealous can you get?
am i jealous of people who claim to win $50/hr at $1/$2? of course. i think that's unrealistic. i've played enough that i know when you lose $400 in a 3-hour session one night it has a significant effect on your win rate.

i am up $1,261 in 14 hours this month. i could go to the casino tonight, lose $400 in six hours and be down to $40/hr. Which is still sick. But it isn't $50/hr. And this is one month.

Just for ****s and giggles, I just checked my win rate at Delaware Park ... the place where I do best. It's $32.75/hr over 200 hours and 50 sessions.

So I guess $50/hr is possible?
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Old 09-11-2012, 11:21 PM   #2333
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So you accuse everyone else of lying and making **** up because it seems high to you?

I just keyed in a 12k losing day on my tracker the other month; do you think that hurt my winrate? And I've had 3 -2k days at 1/2 before too.

Saying the winrates are unrealistic and we're likely running good? That's fair, probably a true statement.

Calling us liars? Lol? F uck off.
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Old 09-11-2012, 11:36 PM   #2334
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
So you accuse everyone else of lying and making **** up because it seems high to you?

I just keyed in a 12k losing day on my tracker the other month; do you think that hurt my winrate? And I've had 3 -2k days at 1/2 before too.

Saying the winrates are unrealistic and we're likely running good? That's fair, probably a true statement.

Calling us liars? Lol? F uck off.
first off, i never said anyone was lying.

i said my first reaction is that they are only calculating winning sessions. MY FIRST REACTION. my last reaction is 'nice hand sir.'

Last edited by ibelieveyouoweme$80k; 09-11-2012 at 11:41 PM.
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Old 09-11-2012, 11:38 PM   #2335
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You realise only calculating winning sessions would be lying since that would not be your overall winrate.
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Old 09-11-2012, 11:41 PM   #2336
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You realise only calculating winning sessions would be lying since that would not be your overall winrate.
Yes.

But ... perhaps not everyone understands what winrate means. Perhaps they think it means the rate at which they win when they win.

Obviously, there are some newcomers on this board and they may misapply concepts.
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Old 09-11-2012, 11:42 PM   #2337
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I've lost over 100k in the last couple of years if I only count losing sessions.
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Old 09-11-2012, 11:47 PM   #2338
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Most people who post a high winrate then say, "But its only been at x amount of hours."

Please no one curse me out.
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Old 09-12-2012, 12:06 AM   #2339
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That x is still higher than the x of quite a few posters here though I bet.
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Old 09-12-2012, 04:31 PM   #2340
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

We get a lot of selection bias in people who post their win rates. Losing players have no reason to post it, and people with big samples have converged on something reasonable that's not particularly brag-worthy, but some will post. That leaves people on heaters as mostly the ones who want to post their WR.
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Old 09-12-2012, 04:41 PM   #2341
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

winrates might seem high to people because live games can vary so much. i've played in 1/2 games with almost $10,000 on the table and i've also played in 1/2 games where the biggest stack is $200. obviously, playing at a 1/2 homegame that's uncapped with straddling and big splashers will produce a winrate that's more in line with 2/5 since the game is essentially 2/5.
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Old 09-12-2012, 06:30 PM   #2342
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
So you accuse everyone else of lying and making **** up because it seems high to you?

I just keyed in a 12k losing day on my tracker the other month; do you think that hurt my winrate? And I've had 3 -2k days at 1/2 before too.

Saying the winrates are unrealistic and we're likely running good? That's fair, probably a true statement.

Calling us liars? Lol? F uck off.
You seem overly defensive, especially considering he didn't address you directly, and the fact that what he said has been said many, many times before on this site.

There is no denying that 95% of people who post about 1/2 on this site claim to win $20+ hourly, and there is no denying that this is simply impossible. Maybe, maybe 15, 20% of players in raked games are long term winners period, which mean that the number of 10xBB+ hourly winners has to be like 2, 3% at max. Clearly, the players here are going to be better than the average player, but this isn't a big enough factor to slant it as heavily as it has been.
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Old 09-12-2012, 06:33 PM   #2343
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20% winning players is ridiculously high. I would say 10 is a good guess, less then 20 for sure
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Old 09-12-2012, 06:33 PM   #2344
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And he is 100% correct about a lot of people inflating win rates. I said the same earlier and stand by it.
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Old 09-12-2012, 06:33 PM   #2345
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Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
We get a lot of selection bias in people who post their win rates. Losing players have no reason to post it, and people with big samples have converged on something reasonable that's not particularly brag-worthy, but some will post. That leaves people on heaters as mostly the ones who want to post their WR.
This is definitely a fair point, but even assuming that no losing players will ever post, that still does not explain why we literally have 0 people who post slightly-above-break-even win rates. How many times have you ever seen someone post that they're averaging $5.43 hourly at 1/2? There are obviously going to be more of these players than ones averaging $25.43.
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Old 09-12-2012, 06:36 PM   #2346
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20% winning players is ridiculously high. I would say 10 is a good guess, less then 20 for sure
Was taking a guess, being kind of generous while doing so. Varies by area according to the rake. Could be 10% or less if we're talking about players from my area for example who frequent the underground club scene where rakes are absurd.
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Old 09-12-2012, 07:26 PM   #2347
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

fwiw I plan on updating my stats every 100 hours (i could do 50 but that wouldn't be too relevant)

I think everyone who posts their winrate in here should keep it updated too
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Old 09-12-2012, 10:42 PM   #2348
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Just sat down at a 1/2 table with a guy sitting with $2400 in chips.
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Old 09-12-2012, 11:35 PM   #2349
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Last 144 hours = -242.

18 wins, 12 losses.

Previous 147 hours = 7506.

25 wins, 8 losses.
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Old 09-12-2012, 11:40 PM   #2350
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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
fwiw I plan on updating my stats every 100 hours (i could do 50 but that wouldn't be too relevant)

I think everyone who posts their winrate in here should keep it updated too
good idea. i was waiting to have a bigger sample size before i posted but i think i'm going to do the same thing.


Sessions - 16

Total Hours - 177

Cashed - 62% (10/16)

$/Hour - $32.20

$/Session - $356.25

Profit - $5700


I actually expect my hourly will go up in the next 100 hours. I had a nasty little 8 session streak of losing my first buy in, which isn't common. I've also worked out some small leaks that were holding me back a little. My goal is to maintain around $50/hour, $500/session. Wish me luck, I'll update at 250 hours.


edit: i should also mention that i had to start my tracking over again about 3 weeks ago, i needed a system that would break down results by day of the week so i could figure out the best schedule to play.
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