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Old 03-12-2019, 03:49 PM   #23276
jelloman
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Since December, I'm down about $ 3400 in a 75 hour stretch. Obv a rec player, but haven't had a losing year in 5 years of keeping records.

It happens. I almost expect the miracle cards to come against me. Lost w/ AA last time out when villain called a $ 75 re-raise with his JQ suited. Yes, he flopped a flush.

I at least know that I'm not tilting and am not playing poorly. Just getting unlucky and going long periods of card dead.

It will turn around.

Patience, my friend.
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Old 03-13-2019, 09:34 AM   #23277
shorn7
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by jelloman View Post
Since December, I'm down about $ 3400 in a 75 hour stretch. Obv a rec player, but haven't had a losing year in 5 years of keeping records.

It happens. I almost expect the miracle cards to come against me. Lost w/ AA last time out when villain called a $ 75 re-raise with his JQ suited. Yes, he flopped a flush.

I at least know that I'm not tilting and am not playing poorly. Just getting unlucky and going long periods of card dead.

It will turn around.

Patience, my friend.
Wow, sorry jello. That is a really tough run. Kudos to you for keeping your control. I almost feel ashamed now posting my results....but like you say above, keep the faith and it will turn around.

Gl to all this week.

Shorn
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Old 03-13-2019, 12:28 PM   #23278
FNP1964
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Work pays off

I have been a quiet reader of you site for awhile now and I guess my posting is for players our there that change and dedication can make a difference.

Our local Casino spreads game for 1/2 to 5/10 NL - with a ridiculous rake of max $8+1 bad beat but we have no really other options within reason.

So of course that become beating the game almost unbeatable - but here are the numbers to this point:

1/2 - max buy $300
94/165 session win rate 56%
Profit/loss $4,010
$/hour - $4.52
Hours logged 886

But my point of this thread was that I was down $-3900 - I can't get my graph to display but you'll have to trust me and from my limit days and learning tournament strategy - I was in the middle of making decisions and essentially learning the game from scratch.

But if you work hard, and respect the game - be extremely critical of your own play not others - work on your leaks - listen to the posters that are insightful and all other form of training and if you can put it together I am proof that you can get better and while it's easy to blame variance - the more sound you become variance becomes a ghost.

So for all the great articles that have been posted on here - I have taken snippets and built on them and it has definitely showed on my results.

So don't give up - work on your games and good things will follow.
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Old 03-13-2019, 01:39 PM   #23279
FNP1964
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I had just posted my first thread talking about improving overall game as my results showed a decline.

It's hard to look at ones game and find the leaks but if the desire is there and
the truth then you we can start to get better.

Variance has a beautiful way of evening out in the long run.

if you're playing a solid fundamental game then it will turn.
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Old 03-13-2019, 03:15 PM   #23280
c0rnBr34d
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Re: Work pays off

Quote:
Originally Posted by FNP1964 View Post
I have been a quiet reader of you site for awhile now and I guess my posting is for players our there that change and dedication can make a difference.

Our local Casino spreads game for 1/2 to 5/10 NL - with a ridiculous rake of max $8+1 bad beat but we have no really other options within reason.

So of course that become beating the game almost unbeatable - but here are the numbers to this point:

1/2 - max buy $300
94/165 session win rate 56%
Profit/loss $4,010
$/hour - $4.52
Hours logged 886

But my point of this thread was that I was down $-3900 - I can't get my graph to display but you'll have to trust me and from my limit days and learning tournament strategy - I was in the middle of making decisions and essentially learning the game from scratch.

But if you work hard, and respect the game - be extremely critical of your own play not others - work on your leaks - listen to the posters that are insightful and all other form of training and if you can put it together I am proof that you can get better and while it's easy to blame variance - the more sound you become variance becomes a ghost.

So for all the great articles that have been posted on here - I have taken snippets and built on them and it has definitely showed on my results.

So don't give up - work on your games and good things will follow.
It's quite a feat to go from -3900 to +4010 (almost +8k) in some sub set of 886 hours at 1/2 while battling an 8+1 rake. You may be on a heater but there's no doubt you're strongly trending in a VERY positive direction. Congrats, keep pushing, and thanks for sharing.
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Old 03-13-2019, 04:00 PM   #23281
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
For the record, the unit of variance is the square of the units of the original measurement. Here it is winrate measured in $/h for live games, so the unit of variance is ($/h)^2. Standard deviation is measured in the same units as winrate, $/h.
Umm, no.

If we open our copies of Gambling Theory and Other Topics to page 341, we see the statement of the Malmuth-Weitzman maximum likelihood estimator for standard deviation for a set of n ordered pairs {(x[i], T[i]} of session results and session durations:

sigma^2 = (1/n) * sum( (x[i] - u*T[i])^2 / T[i] )

x[i] has the units of bets, however we are counting them - they could be dollars, or euros, or yen, or (alternatively) big blinds or buy-ins. T[i] has the units of time, e.g., hours. u is the computed mean win rate and has dimension of bets per unit time.

So the sum is going to have the dimension of bets ^2 / time, and thus this is the dimension of sigma^2

sigma, then is going to have the dimension of bets/sqrt (time), e.g. dollars/sqrt(hour).

ETA: This is an artifact of how Malmuth and Weitzman parameterized the normal probability distribution.

Last edited by AlanBostick; 03-13-2019 at 04:12 PM.
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Old 03-13-2019, 05:14 PM   #23282
browni3141
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
Umm, no.

If we open our copies of Gambling Theory and Other Topics to page 341, we see the statement of the Malmuth-Weitzman maximum likelihood estimator for standard deviation for a set of n ordered pairs {(x[i], T[i]} of session results and session durations:

sigma^2 = (1/n) * sum( (x[i] - u*T[i])^2 / T[i] )

x[i] has the units of bets, however we are counting them - they could be dollars, or euros, or yen, or (alternatively) big blinds or buy-ins. T[i] has the units of time, e.g., hours. u is the computed mean win rate and has dimension of bets per unit time.

So the sum is going to have the dimension of bets ^2 / time, and thus this is the dimension of sigma^2

sigma, then is going to have the dimension of bets/sqrt (time), e.g. dollars/sqrt(hour).
If you're doing a dimensional analysis, aren't you ignoring the 1/n term?

It's published in many places that standard deviation has the same units as the measurement. Here we are measuring win-rate usually expressed as $/h or BBs/100 hands.

It wouldn't really make sense if standard deviation had units of bets/sqrt(time). How would stuff like confidence intervals work? You'd be mixing units. If for some reason the maximum likelihood estimator of standard deviation has different units than standard deviation itself, I don't understand why.

On a different note. The formula you posted should be in a sticky somewhere. Every live player should know how to use it. If anyone does want help implementing it in Excel I can assist.
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Old 03-13-2019, 05:48 PM   #23283
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Here we are measuring win-rate usually expressed as $/h or BBs/100 hands.
Actually, for live BB/hr is much more common than BB/100.
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Old 03-14-2019, 01:13 PM   #23284
RottPhiler
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

After years of breakeven/losing money at limit poker, I'm finding NLH to be such a joy.
I had two years of tiny wins in the 5K per year range at NLH, but 2019 has been great so far with me hitting five figures on March 7th.

2019 stats:
1/2 NLH - 75 hrs - $1087 at 7.25 bb/hr.
1/3 NLH - 69 hrs - $3364 at 16.25 bb/hr.
2/5 NLH - 181 hrs - $7048 at 7.79 bb/hr.

The buyins for my games are a bit weird. The 1/2 max buyin is 150bb ($300), the 1/3 max buyin is 167bb ($500) and the 2/5 max buyin is 300bb ($1500). I buyin for the max every time I play and continually top-up. I have two bullets for everything except the 2/5, which I'm sort of under-rolled for. I play super snug at 2/5 while at the 1/3 I'm playing more of my natural game. I've also been sun-running the 1/3 and the 2/5.

I've watched a ton of Andrew Neeme/Doug Polk/Brad Owen/Jaman Burton/Kiet vlogs, and I've started getting sticky and calling more often in spots that I would normally fold. I've also gotten really good at the mental aspect of poker and have nearly eliminated all forms of tilt (entitlement tilt still gets me from time to time) which has been somewhat key really. I still leave a lot of money on the table, especially at the 2-5 game, since I'm less focused on maximizing EV and more focused on leaving the casino with more money than I brought for the day, which has also somewhat helped.

Definitely not quitting my day job, but I feel like finally this seems sustainable. I also do recognize that my cardroom is somewhat soft. Any and all feedback appreciated. Thank you.
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Old 03-14-2019, 03:09 PM   #23285
c0rnBr34d
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by RottPhiler View Post
After years of breakeven/losing money at limit poker, I'm finding NLH to be such a joy.
I had two years of tiny wins in the 5K per year range at NLH, but 2019 has been great so far with me hitting five figures on March 7th.

2019 stats:
1/2 NLH - 75 hrs - $1087 at 7.25 bb/hr.
1/3 NLH - 69 hrs - $3364 at 16.25 bb/hr.
2/5 NLH - 181 hrs - $7048 at 7.79 bb/hr.

The buyins for my games are a bit weird. The 1/2 max buyin is 150bb ($300), the 1/3 max buyin is 167bb ($500) and the 2/5 max buyin is 300bb ($1500). I buyin for the max every time I play and continually top-up. I have two bullets for everything except the 2/5, which I'm sort of under-rolled for. I play super snug at 2/5 while at the 1/3 I'm playing more of my natural game. I've also been sun-running the 1/3 and the 2/5.

I've watched a ton of Andrew Neeme/Doug Polk/Brad Owen/Jaman Burton/Kiet vlogs, and I've started getting sticky and calling more often in spots that I would normally fold. I've also gotten really good at the mental aspect of poker and have nearly eliminated all forms of tilt (entitlement tilt still gets me from time to time) which has been somewhat key really. I still leave a lot of money on the table, especially at the 2-5 game, since I'm less focused on maximizing EV and more focused on leaving the casino with more money than I brought for the day, which has also somewhat helped.

Definitely not quitting my day job, but I feel like finally this seems sustainable. I also do recognize that my cardroom is somewhat soft. Any and all feedback appreciated. Thank you.
Awesome results and good luck but how tf do you manage 32-ish hours a week on top of a day job???
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Old 03-14-2019, 03:29 PM   #23286
samo
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Well played Rott!
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Old 03-14-2019, 03:36 PM   #23287
RottPhiler
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
Awesome results and good luck but how tf do you manage 32-ish hours a week on top of a day job???
By getting in two 12+ hour sessions on Friday night and Saturday, mostly. Playing till the games break. According to my stats most of my profit comes on Friday (but that's also where I've played my most hours), with Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday the next three in order. I'm losing on MTWs (barely, like 50 bucks each on T and W).

Quote:
Originally Posted by samo View Post
Well played Rott!
Thanks.
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Old 03-15-2019, 06:45 PM   #23288
amirsal
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What bankroll do I need to go pro 1$/3$?

So about a month ago I've made a decision to chase my dream and become a poker pro.

This requires a relocation since there's not casinos where I live.

The plan is to move to Barcelona for 3-4 months and grind 1$/3$ (it's their smallest game) and move up from there, if i'm profitable.

I'm very confident in my skills and I believe I can beat 1/3 for a start.
What bankroll is necessary to play at those stakes? Currently waitering my way to a decent bankroll.

Any insights or comments are welcome!
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Old 03-15-2019, 06:56 PM   #23289
sixfour
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Re: What bankroll do I need to go pro 1$/3$?

Well, when you say you believe you can beat 1/3, what empirical evidence do you have that you can beat 1/3 at enough of a rate to cover all your expenses? Once we know that, we can then calculate exactly what sort of bankroll you need in order that this time next year you're not walking down the Ramblas trying to steal my wallet
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Old 03-15-2019, 07:07 PM   #23290
browni3141
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Re: What bankroll do I need to go pro 1$/3$?

The best answer to this question is that if you don’t know the answer you’re not ready.

If you have to say “if you’re profitable,” then you’re definitely not ready
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Old 03-15-2019, 07:25 PM   #23291
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Re: What bankroll do I need to go pro 1$/3$?

Let’s say you’re considering a move to Barcelona to continue work as a waiter there. How much do you have to make there in base salary plus variable amounts of tips?
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Old 03-15-2019, 08:26 PM   #23292
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Re: What bankroll do I need to go pro 1$/3$?

15k€.
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Old 03-15-2019, 08:53 PM   #23293
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Re: What bankroll do I need to go pro 1$/3$?

So, waitstaff to pay the bills, poker to increase bankroll and move up in stakes? Is that right?
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Old 03-15-2019, 09:18 PM   #23294
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Re: What bankroll do I need to go pro 1$/3$?

you could make it work with 15k. 40 buyins + 3k living expenses at 1k per month. probably better to level up grinding micros online though.
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Old 03-15-2019, 11:00 PM   #23295
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Re: What bankroll do I need to go pro 1$/3$?

10K minimum imo
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Old 03-16-2019, 08:20 AM   #23296
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Re: What bankroll do I need to go pro 1$/3$?

oh, you should definitely get a part time job as a waiter in Barcelona as well. Then if you are running bad you can try to get more hours at work, or if you are crushing it scale back a bit and put in more time at the tables. In the mean time try to pick up some extra shifts.
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Old 03-16-2019, 09:10 AM   #23297
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Re: What bankroll do I need to go pro 1$/3$?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble View Post
oh, you should definitely get a part time job as a waiter in Barcelona as well. Then if you are running bad you can try to get more hours at work, or if you are crushing it scale back a bit and put in more time at the tables. In the mean time try to pick up some extra shifts.


-1


If u wanna play pro poker it’s hard enough on its own I wouldn’t try to juggle a 2nd job that will take away from your time
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Old 03-16-2019, 09:35 AM   #23298
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Re: What bankroll do I need to go pro 1$/3$?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble View Post
3k living expenses at 1k per month.
Have you been to Barcelona? 3 month rent in a non-expensive neighborhood for a furnished studio already puts you in the 1500-2000€ range, that’s $1700-$2265. Your other monthly expenses won’t stop, you still need to pay for your phone and other stuff and without the waiting job, your health insurance is probably gone too (yes, in Europe you get health insurance in the service industry). Even if you don’t have a car and the costs associated with that, you need a monthly pass for public transportation that costs another $200ish for 3 months.

So unless you plan on eating PB&Js 3 times a day and drink tap water, $1k (=883€) won’t get you very far.
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Old 03-16-2019, 11:23 AM   #23299
amirsal
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Re: What bankroll do I need to go pro 1$/3$?

So regarding the living expenses. I'm saving "living expenses" money + poker bankroll.
The reason I'm confident I can beat 1/3 (not dollars btw, euros, my bad), is that I beat almost any home game I go to where I live. Every time I visit Europe on holiday I play poker and win money at the local casinos. A month ago I had 6 sessions in Barcelona, profiting on 5 of them, broke even once (1 short session in London, profitable as well).

This isn't some kind of a lucky streak, Just calculated play.

By waitering I ment that this is what I'm doing now to save enough money, I don't plan on having a day job in Barcelona.
I've been there 3 times and fell in love with the city, I know my way around mostly.

According to my research, living expenses will be around 1200-1300 euros a month.
I plan on playing 6 hours sessions 5-6 days a week. Which means 130~ hours a month.

So to break even monthly I need to make 9-10 euros an hour, which is 3-4BB/hour winrate, seems doable to me.

I was thinking on saving 50buy ins + living expenses but that would take me about a year to make. Maybe I'm saving too much? what's a decent number of starting buy ins?

Really appreciate all the responses!
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Old 03-16-2019, 12:55 PM   #23300
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Re: What bankroll do I need to go pro 1$/3$?

Moved out of Beginners Questions for a fresh set of eyes from players actually playing live poker.

Barcelona threads:
HERE and HERE
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