No prob man. Sounds like you know where to focus then. Sometimes I have to get up and make a bathroom run or a phone call or something after one of those situations. I had a hand Saturday where a guy bluff 3 bet shoved the turn into my top pair + flush draw + gut shot. He had AKo and no pair with 4 clean outs for stacks and binked. His line was FOS and his live tells were strong. I took a walk and came back. I never got it back from him but at least I didn't punt the next buy in.

Funny you say that about goals. I started a PG&C thread setting 2019 goals for the first time ever. I don't mind the added "pressure". Last year I did a similar thing but with an offline bet with a friend. The pressure if anything helped me focus. Feel free to stop in and flame me on the other forum. My 90 hours hasn't been as tough as yours but it hasn't been without its setbacks.

I hear ya GG. Definitely not trying to take a shot at your style in any way. I have respect for the way you do things. I just am guessing that Shorn would likely benefit more from facing the entitlement tilt issue, rather than avoid it by short buying.
But of course, as you pointed out, this is up to Shorn.

Shake it off. Your sample size is completely insignificant & trying to draw conclusions from it seems ludicrous. Being down a bit under 400 bigs over 34 hr, or 1k hands is totally common & expected. I'm averaging over 8bb/hr for the year. Only 301 hrs, which is also a joke of a sample. I've managed to go on a -4.6k stretch in 5/5 during that time, which translates to ~220 hr break even stretch. Keep your head up & stay aware of the big picture. I'd recommend Tendler's Mental Game of Poker if you haven't read it yet.

So I've looked through some of this thread but have a hard time finding anything.

When you think of your br (let's say 20 buy ins). Are you thinking of it as 20 buy ins of or 2000 bb? Do you have different br requirements for a 2/5 $500 max game and a 2/5 $1000 max game?

I would assume variance in bb/100 is smaller for winning players in the deeper game, but not sure how that affects recommend br.

Most people would probably say 20 buy ins means 2000BBs. Bankroll requirements probably vary room to room. My room switched to 200BB max buy in back in Feb2017, but if I were to guess I would say that only 10% of players buy in full 200BBs. Its also very rare to see 2 guys with 200BBs stacks get all in. Ill bet I only see it once every 200-300 hours.

I play mostly during the daytime in probably the nittiest room you'll ever find though so Im sure other rooms would be different. Still, I personally think 20 buy ins is fine even if you are buying in for 200BBs.

Very good point and one I did not consider. As you might expect, I generally BI for the max and continually top off. And maybe you are right about the difficulty playing deep, especially when not on my A game. Might give this a try thx.

Sorry to hear this X. I feel your pain. Luckily for me (and hopefully for you too), the pokerz are not my source of living income, so I really have the luxury of not worrying about paying bills after a bad stretch. I know myself well enough to know that there is no way I could hack it as a pro where this was my source of income. I give major props to anyone who does it as they are beasts mentally.

Yeah I do. Deffo have some entitlement tilt to deal with and I know it, I just have not been able to set it aside for some reason. If the goal setting helps you, then that is great. Just seems like it has had the opposite effect for me so far. As all of you have pointed out though, my sample size is totally lol...hard for me though as a weekend warrior as part of me feels like "well sh*t, I could have stayed home the first two months of the year and been better off.".

Will check out the PG&C threat...promise not to flame!

Thanks Quantum. I agree and know you are right...just has been hard to focus on that while in the middle of it. Wish I could be a robot sometimes.

Have not read Tendler but will check it out. Thx for the reco.

Shorn

As others have said, the sample is very micro.

When transitioning to $2/$5 NL, more than a couple of times I dropped to back $1/$2 NL to plug some leaks like hero calling, opening KQo from UTG in an aggressive game, cbetting on misses, etc. I don’t know how many hours you have logged at $2/$5 NL, nevertheless, tightening up your game with some $1/$2 NL volume probably couldn’t hurt.

Also, don't feel ashamed about booking a W in a short session, especially if the game is only so-so.

GL.

I'm waiting to start posting numbers, but my sample size is LOL, too. I only play once, maybe twice a week (sometimes not at all), so it's going to take a while before anything counts. I deleted all of my info from last year Running well this year, though. Up $5,805 over 47 hours at 1/2 and 1/3. However, I play in a very small room with a limited player pool. I really feel as if my game has improved because I'm able to play the player better than ever. I'm heading to Vegas in April, so we'll see how playing new players works out. I play mostly PLO there and higher NL, though, so quite different

I am not a fan of buying in short, but I do think it can help you play tighter and maybe change your mindset for a session or two. One thing that can definitely help is sticking to your "rack up" limits -- either stop loss or stop win or a certain time, but go when it's time to go!

GL all.

If tilt has reduced our edge, then the added benefit of being "better" than them while deep isn't worth nearly what it would be if we were on our A game, in fact it might be negative. So buying in short can help mitigate our losses if we're playing like trash.

Sometimes just booking a couple of small wins is all it takes to un**** one's mental state.

Shorn: I wouldn't be stressed about those results at all. The sample size is so small it's nothing. Literally *one* stack vs. stack pot puts your $1/2 results even.

Standard deviation is the more useful stat, which is the square root of the variance. People also get confused with the term variance because it has an alternative colloquial meaning that sometimes contradicts the formal definition. I think it would be better to avoid using the term variance unless necessary, and use standard deviation instead.

For the record, the unit of variance is the square of the units of the original measurement. Here it is winrate measured in $/h for live games, so the unit of variance is ($/h)^2. Standard deviation is measured in the same units as winrate, $/h.

Standard deviation increases with stack depth, and you should have a larger bankroll (in BBs) to play it. Calculate bankroll requirements in BBs. I'm not sure how standard deviation scales with stack depth, but I think it's likely sub-linear. You don't need to double your bankroll when you double your buy-in size.

Since December, I'm down about $ 3400 in a 75 hour stretch. Obv a rec player, but haven't had a losing year in 5 years of keeping records.

It happens. I almost expect the miracle cards to come against me. Lost w/ AA last time out when villain called a $ 75 re-raise with his JQ suited. Yes, he flopped a flush.

I at least know that I'm not tilting and am not playing poorly. Just getting unlucky and going long periods of card dead.

It will turn around.

Patience, my friend.

Wow, sorry jello. That is a really tough run. Kudos to you for keeping your control. I almost feel ashamed now posting my results....but like you say above, keep the faith and it will turn around.

Gl to all this week.

Shorn

I have been a quiet reader of you site for awhile now and I guess my posting is for players our there that change and dedication can make a difference.

Our local Casino spreads game for 1/2 to 5/10 NL - with a ridiculous rake of max $8+1 bad beat but we have no really other options within reason.

So of course that become beating the game almost unbeatable - but here are the numbers to this point:

1/2 - max buy $300
94/165 session win rate 56%
Profit/loss $4,010
$/hour - $4.52
Hours logged 886

But my point of this thread was that I was down $-3900 - I can't get my graph to display but you'll have to trust me and from my limit days and learning tournament strategy - I was in the middle of making decisions and essentially learning the game from scratch.

But if you work hard, and respect the game - be extremely critical of your own play not others - work on your leaks - listen to the posters that are insightful and all other form of training and if you can put it together I am proof that you can get better and while it's easy to blame variance - the more sound you become variance becomes a ghost.

So for all the great articles that have been posted on here - I have taken snippets and built on them and it has definitely showed on my results.

So don't give up - work on your games and good things will follow.

I had just posted my first thread talking about improving overall game as my results showed a decline.

It's hard to look at ones game and find the leaks but if the desire is there and
the truth then you we can start to get better.

Variance has a beautiful way of evening out in the long run.

if you're playing a solid fundamental game then it will turn.

It's quite a feat to go from -3900 to +4010 (almost +8k) in some sub set of 886 hours at 1/2 while battling an 8+1 rake. You may be on a heater but there's no doubt you're strongly trending in a VERY positive direction. Congrats, keep pushing, and thanks for sharing.

Umm, no.

If we open our copies of Gambling Theory and Other Topics to page 341, we see the statement of the Malmuth-Weitzman maximum likelihood estimator for standard deviation for a set of n ordered pairs {(x[i], T[i]} of session results and session durations:

sigma^2 = (1/n) * sum( (x[i] - u*T[i])^2 / T[i] )

x[i] has the units of bets, however we are counting them - they could be dollars, or euros, or yen, or (alternatively) big blinds or buy-ins. T[i] has the units of time, e.g., hours. u is the computed mean win rate and has dimension of bets per unit time.

So the sum is going to have the dimension of bets ^2 / time, and thus this is the dimension of sigma^2

sigma, then is going to have the dimension of bets/sqrt (time), e.g. dollars/sqrt(hour).

ETA: This is an artifact of how Malmuth and Weitzman parameterized the normal probability distribution.

If you're doing a dimensional analysis, aren't you ignoring the 1/n term?

It's published in many places that standard deviation has the same units as the measurement. Here we are measuring win-rate usually expressed as $/h or BBs/100 hands.

It wouldn't really make sense if standard deviation had units of bets/sqrt(time). How would stuff like confidence intervals work? You'd be mixing units. If for some reason the maximum likelihood estimator of standard deviation has different units than standard deviation itself, I don't understand why.

On a different note. The formula you posted should be in a sticky somewhere. Every live player should know how to use it. If anyone does want help implementing it in Excel I can assist.

Actually, for live BB/hr is much more common than BB/100.

After years of breakeven/losing money at limit poker, I'm finding NLH to be such a joy.
I had two years of tiny wins in the 5K per year range at NLH, but 2019 has been great so far with me hitting five figures on March 7th.

2019 stats:
1/2 NLH - 75 hrs - $1087 at 7.25 bb/hr.
1/3 NLH - 69 hrs - $3364 at 16.25 bb/hr.
2/5 NLH - 181 hrs - $7048 at 7.79 bb/hr.

The buyins for my games are a bit weird. The 1/2 max buyin is 150bb ($300), the 1/3 max buyin is 167bb ($500) and the 2/5 max buyin is 300bb ($1500). I buyin for the max every time I play and continually top-up. I have two bullets for everything except the 2/5, which I'm sort of under-rolled for. I play super snug at 2/5 while at the 1/3 I'm playing more of my natural game. I've also been sun-running the 1/3 and the 2/5.

I've watched a ton of Andrew Neeme/Doug Polk/Brad Owen/Jaman Burton/Kiet vlogs, and I've started getting sticky and calling more often in spots that I would normally fold. I've also gotten really good at the mental aspect of poker and have nearly eliminated all forms of tilt (entitlement tilt still gets me from time to time) which has been somewhat key really. I still leave a lot of money on the table, especially at the 2-5 game, since I'm less focused on maximizing EV and more focused on leaving the casino with more money than I brought for the day, which has also somewhat helped.

Definitely not quitting my day job, but I feel like finally this seems sustainable. I also do recognize that my cardroom is somewhat soft. Any and all feedback appreciated. Thank you.

Awesome results and good luck but how tf do you manage 32-ish hours a week on top of a day job???

Well played Rott!

By getting in two 12+ hour sessions on Friday night and Saturday, mostly. Playing till the games break. According to my stats most of my profit comes on Friday (but that's also where I've played my most hours), with Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday the next three in order. I'm losing on MTWs (barely, like 50 bucks each on T and W).

Thanks.