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Old 03-11-2019, 03:12 PM   #23251
shorn7
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My 2019 has not started off well:

Hours: 84
P/L: ($645)
Hourly ($7.70)

Specific Game results:
1/2 NL: ($442) over 31 hours
2/5 NL: ($1878) over 34 hours
1/3 PLO: +$1,585 over 19 hours

I know a very small sample size so far, but I feel like I am really struggling compared to last year. Nothing has come easy and all and I feel like it has been one step forward, two steps back (indeed, I have only logged 14 winning sessions out of 27).

I have a huge problem with "breakeven tilt", especially when I see what I consider "bad" players winning big. I have taken a a few weeks off here and re-read Zen and the Art of Poker as well as the Tao of Poker.

Will head back to the tables next weekend to keep plugging. Hope to turn things around.

GL to all.

Shorn
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Old 03-11-2019, 03:40 PM   #23252
c0rnBr34d
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

@shorn7 - Posts like this always scare me. I know from your HHs and posts that you're a strong NL player. I cant speak for PLO as I still haven't played it much. It makes me feel like I'm running several standard deviations above EV and will face some harsh truths in the near future.

Being envious of the fish who cant lose despite bad play is human. I tend to like when they get chips though because they are easier to gather from fish than from sharks. As long as you are still making good decisions and not trying too hard to get into pots with them it should only be an annoyance. Is this tilt changing your in game decision making? If so, try to focus on that. If not, I hope you start to run better. Nice volume by the way, I'm also at 90 hours for the year. Good luck!
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Old 03-11-2019, 03:46 PM   #23253
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

@ shorn

My guess is most of poker is just losing as little as possible when things are sucking (especially relative to what our opponents would be losing in the same spot) while waiting for the good times.

Yesterday during the middle of my 11.25 hour session I went on a 4.5 hour streak where I didn't win a single hand (possibly a personal record, I'm not sure) including getting stacked with KK vs 54 HU (having gotten in 25% of stacks preflop against the guy who literally couldn't miss who shipped an easy peasy $1500 session win cuz poker is obviously so easy). I'm assuming most people would have monkey tilted the session away in my spot, but I just stuck with it and booked a small 64bb loss for the day and will move on and wait for my good times.

Also important to evaluate the games you are playing in. Are they good games? No harm in moving down if you don't feel they are and are struggling.

And of course lol at all our sample sizes (I'm at 114.5 hours for the year, crushing you guys, lol). It's *so* meaningless (but of course I realize the difficulty of convincing our brain of that, especially during the down times).

Ghavetrustinyourmethod,imoG
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Old 03-11-2019, 03:52 PM   #23254
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by shorn7 View Post
My 2019 has not started off well:

Hours: 84
P/L: ($645)
Hourly ($7.70)

Specific Game results:
1/2 NL: ($442) over 31 hours
2/5 NL: ($1878) over 34 hours
1/3 PLO: +$1,585 over 19 hours

I know a very small sample size so far, but I feel like I am really struggling compared to last year. Nothing has come easy and all and I feel like it has been one step forward, two steps back (indeed, I have only logged 14 winning sessions out of 27).

I have a huge problem with "breakeven tilt", especially when I see what I consider "bad" players winning big. I have taken a a few weeks off here and re-read Zen and the Art of Poker as well as the Tao of Poker.

Will head back to the tables next weekend to keep plugging. Hope to turn things around.

GL to all.

Shorn


Yeah, I’m in a hole for 2019 from about 65 hours.

I had 3 -1500 or more 2/5/10 sessions in Jan and Feb and that’s been a challenge to dig out of.

Think I’m still down about 500 overall too.
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Old 03-11-2019, 03:52 PM   #23255
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Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
@shorn7 - Posts like this always scare me. I know from your HHs and posts that you're a strong NL player. I cant speak for PLO as I still haven't played it much. It makes me feel like I'm running several standard deviations above EV and will face some harsh truths in the near future.

Being envious of the fish who cant lose despite bad play is human. I tend to like when they get chips though because they are easier to gather from fish than from sharks. As long as you are still making good decisions and not trying too hard to get into pots with them it should only be an annoyance. Is this tilt changing your in game decision making? If so, try to focus on that. If not, I hope you start to run better. Nice volume by the way, I'm also at 90 hours for the year. Good luck!
Thanks. I think I am coming to the realization that I ran well over expectation last year and this is those damn chickens coming home to roost.

As to the bolded, yes I think it is. I go into each session with the firm intention of being patient and looking for good spots. But 4-5 hours of folding in, I generally make a stupid play out of boredom which invariably turns out poorly (go figure!) and then I am in "dig out" mode which is never good.

All of this is correctable by me of course, I just have not found the even kilter this year to do it and am struggling to get there. To be honest, I have had 2 awful 2/5 sessions (-$3800 total over say 8 hours) that are the biggest part of it, but no excuses at all. Another error I think was that I set a monetary goal for the year which maybe put more pressure on me to push spots that I might not have pushed without it.

Anyway, I just need to clean up my game and keep putting in hours and hopefully it will turn around. I just hope your 90 hours so far have been way better than mine!
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Old 03-11-2019, 03:56 PM   #23256
shorn7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
@ shorn

My guess is most of poker is just losing as little as possible when things are sucking (especially relative to what our opponents would be losing in the same spot) while waiting for the good times.

Yesterday during the middle of my 11.25 hour session I went on a 4.5 hour streak where I didn't win a single hand (possibly a personal record, I'm not sure) including getting stacked with KK vs 54 HU (having gotten in 25% of stacks preflop against the guy who literally couldn't miss who shipped an easy peasy $1500 session win cuz poker is obviously so easy). I'm assuming most people would have monkey tilted the session away in my spot, but I just stuck with it and booked a small 64bb loss for the day and will move on and wait for my good times.

Also important to evaluate the games you are playing in. Are they good games? No harm in moving down if you don't feel they are and are struggling.

And of course lol at all our sample sizes (I'm at 114.5 hours for the year, crushing you guys, lol). It's *so* meaningless (but of course I realize the difficulty of convincing our brain of that, especially during the down times).

Ghavetrustinyourmethod,imoG
Well done GG. There is no Q in my mind that I would have monkey tilted a ton in your spot. And yes, I really need to work on limiting losing sessions like you did above as things can compound quickly if you let it get away from you. I just haven't had that mental strength this year that I have had in the past. Games have been fine to be honest....just bad play by me mostly.

I will trust the method and thanks for the reminders!

Shorn
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Old 03-11-2019, 04:22 PM   #23257
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What do you BI with shorn?

One huge advantage I've found to sitting on a topped up 66bb BI versus a 100bb BI is that it is *so* trivially easy to play (tight is right, tigher is righter, etc.) and you just get in so few tough situations. So like after I'm stacked in the KK vs 54 case for my 66bbs, whatever, who cares, I pull out another 66bbs and I'm back in my wheelhouse where it's still pretty easy peasy poker.

If you're struggling, don't underestimate the difficulty of playing deep versus the easyiess of playing short especially in your current mindset. You can always BI deeper once you're comfortably back on your mental horse.

Gattheveryleastsometingtoconsider,imoG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 03-11-2019 at 04:27 PM.
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Old 03-11-2019, 04:23 PM   #23258
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I feel like my last 150 hours or so have been really similar to your Shorn. Just seems like every time I’m in a perfect spot in the biggest pot of the session the absolute nut worst river card hits. It’s really just bound to happen. Think of how lucky we are to be able to still play this game and run a bit better than breakeven, even when running below expectation. Most players need to run above expectation to break even.
This might not be much consolation if this is your job, but it’s what I’ve been trying to tell myself while waiting out the pits of gross rivers.
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Old 03-11-2019, 04:26 PM   #23259
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And I know that GG means well by his advice, but I wouldn’t recommend short buying to compensate. You’d really feel sick to start running well and only doubling up to what you would regularly buy in for. I get the idea of simplifying things to reduce frustration, but I think you’ll be better off just working on your entitlement tilt issue.
You’re a solid player. I’ve read some of your strat posts/thoughts. Just fight through the boredom and wait for the light at the end of the tunnel.
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Old 03-11-2019, 04:31 PM   #23260
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
And I know that GG means well by his advice, but I wouldn’t recommend short buying to compensate.
This x10. Skill advantages are compounded exponentially the deeper you are. All buying in short does is make the game preflop and decrease any Edge you have by being a better player.

However if you don't have a skill advantage, buying a short is a great idea as it minimizes the edge that a better player will have over you.


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Old 03-11-2019, 04:40 PM   #23261
ZippyThePinhead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shorn7 View Post
My 2019 has not started off well:

Hours: 84
P/L: ($645)
Hourly ($7.70)

Specific Game results:
1/2 NL: ($442) over 31 hours
2/5 NL: ($1878) over 34 hours
1/3 PLO: +$1,585 over 19 hours

I know a very small sample size so far, but I feel like I am really struggling compared to last year. Nothing has come easy and all and I feel like it has been one step forward, two steps back (indeed, I have only logged 14 winning sessions out of 27).

I have a huge problem with "breakeven tilt", especially when I see what I consider "bad" players winning big. I have taken a a few weeks off here and re-read Zen and the Art of Poker as well as the Tao of Poker.

Will head back to the tables next weekend to keep plugging. Hope to turn things around.

GL to all.

Shorn
For poker mindset, my opinion is that Tommy Angelo's Painless Poker and The Elements of Poker are must reads.

Year to date stats are meaningless, especially for those of us not playing 40+ hours per week.

Here are my YTD stats (153 hours 17/19 winning sessios), which aren't any more meaningful than yours, except maybe I should play more 1/2.







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Last edited by ZippyThePinhead; 03-11-2019 at 04:48 PM.
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Old 03-11-2019, 04:41 PM   #23262
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If he's playing well and has an advantage deep, then by all means play deep. I'll let shorn decide if he's playing well. Even a self-imposed penalty of playing an orbit / hour at a shorter BI before topping off to deeper when convinced he has things under control mentally isn't a horrible idea.

GcluelessplayingwellnoobG
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Old 03-11-2019, 05:05 PM   #23263
c0rnBr34d
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shorn7 View Post
Thanks. I think I am coming to the realization that I ran well over expectation last year and this is those damn chickens coming home to roost.

As to the bolded, yes I think it is. I go into each session with the firm intention of being patient and looking for good spots. But 4-5 hours of folding in, I generally make a stupid play out of boredom which invariably turns out poorly (go figure!) and then I am in "dig out" mode which is never good.

All of this is correctable by me of course, I just have not found the even kilter this year to do it and am struggling to get there. To be honest, I have had 2 awful 2/5 sessions (-$3800 total over say 8 hours) that are the biggest part of it, but no excuses at all. Another error I think was that I set a monetary goal for the year which maybe put more pressure on me to push spots that I might not have pushed without it.

Anyway, I just need to clean up my game and keep putting in hours and hopefully it will turn around. I just hope your 90 hours so far have been way better than mine!
No prob man. Sounds like you know where to focus then. Sometimes I have to get up and make a bathroom run or a phone call or something after one of those situations. I had a hand Saturday where a guy bluff 3 bet shoved the turn into my top pair + flush draw + gut shot. He had AKo and no pair with 4 clean outs for stacks and binked. His line was FOS and his live tells were strong. I took a walk and came back. I never got it back from him but at least I didn't punt the next buy in.

Funny you say that about goals. I started a PG&C thread setting 2019 goals for the first time ever. I don't mind the added "pressure". Last year I did a similar thing but with an offline bet with a friend. The pressure if anything helped me focus. Feel free to stop in and flame me on the other forum. My 90 hours hasn't been as tough as yours but it hasn't been without its setbacks.

Last edited by c0rnBr34d; 03-11-2019 at 05:18 PM.
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Old 03-11-2019, 05:06 PM   #23264
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I hear ya GG. Definitely not trying to take a shot at your style in any way. I have respect for the way you do things. I just am guessing that Shorn would likely benefit more from facing the entitlement tilt issue, rather than avoid it by short buying.
But of course, as you pointed out, this is up to Shorn.
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Old 03-11-2019, 06:06 PM   #23265
QuantumSurfer
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by shorn7 View Post
My 2019 has not started off well:

Hours: 84
P/L: ($645)
Hourly ($7.70)

Specific Game results:
1/2 NL: ($442) over 31 hours
2/5 NL: ($1878) over 34 hours
1/3 PLO: +$1,585 over 19 hours

I know a very small sample size so far, but I feel like I am really struggling compared to last year. Nothing has come easy and all and I feel like it has been one step forward, two steps back (indeed, I have only logged 14 winning sessions out of 27).

I have a huge problem with "breakeven tilt", especially when I see what I consider "bad" players winning big. I have taken a a few weeks off here and re-read Zen and the Art of Poker as well as the Tao of Poker.

Will head back to the tables next weekend to keep plugging. Hope to turn things around.

GL to all.

Shorn
Shake it off. Your sample size is completely insignificant & trying to draw conclusions from it seems ludicrous. Being down a bit under 400 bigs over 34 hr, or 1k hands is totally common & expected. I'm averaging over 8bb/hr for the year. Only 301 hrs, which is also a joke of a sample. I've managed to go on a -4.6k stretch in 5/5 during that time, which translates to ~220 hr break even stretch. Keep your head up & stay aware of the big picture. I'd recommend Tendler's Mental Game of Poker if you haven't read it yet.
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Old 03-12-2019, 06:50 AM   #23266
El Barbero
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So I've looked through some of this thread but have a hard time finding anything.

When you think of your br (let's say 20 buy ins). Are you thinking of it as 20 buy ins of or 2000 bb? Do you have different br requirements for a 2/5 $500 max game and a 2/5 $1000 max game?

I would assume variance in bb/100 is smaller for winning players in the deeper game, but not sure how that affects recommend br.
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Old 03-12-2019, 07:03 AM   #23267
MikeStarr
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Barbero View Post
So I've looked through some of this thread but have a hard time finding anything.

When you think of your br (let's say 20 buy ins). Are you thinking of it as 20 buy ins of or 2000 bb? Do you have different br requirements for a 2/5 $500 max game and a 2/5 $1000 max game?

I would assume variance in bb/100 is smaller for winning players in the deeper game, but not sure how that affects recommend br.
Most people would probably say 20 buy ins means 2000BBs. Bankroll requirements probably vary room to room. My room switched to 200BB max buy in back in Feb2017, but if I were to guess I would say that only 10% of players buy in full 200BBs. Its also very rare to see 2 guys with 200BBs stacks get all in. Ill bet I only see it once every 200-300 hours.

I play mostly during the daytime in probably the nittiest room you'll ever find though so Im sure other rooms would be different. Still, I personally think 20 buy ins is fine even if you are buying in for 200BBs.
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Old 03-12-2019, 08:48 AM   #23268
shorn7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
What do you BI with shorn?

One huge advantage I've found to sitting on a topped up 66bb BI versus a 100bb BI is that it is *so* trivially easy to play (tight is right, tigher is righter, etc.) and you just get in so few tough situations. So like after I'm stacked in the KK vs 54 case for my 66bbs, whatever, who cares, I pull out another 66bbs and I'm back in my wheelhouse where it's still pretty easy peasy poker.

If you're struggling, don't underestimate the difficulty of playing deep versus the easyiess of playing short especially in your current mindset. You can always BI deeper once you're comfortably back on your mental horse.

Gattheveryleastsometingtoconsider,imoG
Very good point and one I did not consider. As you might expect, I generally BI for the max and continually top off. And maybe you are right about the difficulty playing deep, especially when not on my A game. Might give this a try thx.
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Old 03-12-2019, 08:52 AM   #23269
shorn7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
I feel like my last 150 hours or so have been really similar to your Shorn. Just seems like every time I’m in a perfect spot in the biggest pot of the session the absolute nut worst river card hits. It’s really just bound to happen. Think of how lucky we are to be able to still play this game and run a bit better than breakeven, even when running below expectation. Most players need to run above expectation to break even.
This might not be much consolation if this is your job, but it’s what I’ve been trying to tell myself while waiting out the pits of gross rivers.
Sorry to hear this X. I feel your pain. Luckily for me (and hopefully for you too), the pokerz are not my source of living income, so I really have the luxury of not worrying about paying bills after a bad stretch. I know myself well enough to know that there is no way I could hack it as a pro where this was my source of income. I give major props to anyone who does it as they are beasts mentally.
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Old 03-12-2019, 08:59 AM   #23270
shorn7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
No prob man. Sounds like you know where to focus then. Sometimes I have to get up and make a bathroom run or a phone call or something after one of those situations. I had a hand Saturday where a guy bluff 3 bet shoved the turn into my top pair + flush draw + gut shot. He had AKo and no pair with 4 clean outs for stacks and binked. His line was FOS and his live tells were strong. I took a walk and came back. I never got it back from him but at least I didn't punt the next buy in.

Funny you say that about goals. I started a PG&C thread setting 2019 goals for the first time ever. I don't mind the added "pressure". Last year I did a similar thing but with an offline bet with a friend. The pressure if anything helped me focus. Feel free to stop in and flame me on the other forum. My 90 hours hasn't been as tough as yours but it hasn't been without its setbacks.
Yeah I do. Deffo have some entitlement tilt to deal with and I know it, I just have not been able to set it aside for some reason. If the goal setting helps you, then that is great. Just seems like it has had the opposite effect for me so far. As all of you have pointed out though, my sample size is totally lol...hard for me though as a weekend warrior as part of me feels like "well sh*t, I could have stayed home the first two months of the year and been better off.".

Will check out the PG&C threat...promise not to flame!
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Old 03-12-2019, 09:01 AM   #23271
shorn7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by QuantumSurfer View Post
Shake it off. Your sample size is completely insignificant & trying to draw conclusions from it seems ludicrous. Being down a bit under 400 bigs over 34 hr, or 1k hands is totally common & expected. I'm averaging over 8bb/hr for the year. Only 301 hrs, which is also a joke of a sample. I've managed to go on a -4.6k stretch in 5/5 during that time, which translates to ~220 hr break even stretch. Keep your head up & stay aware of the big picture. I'd recommend Tendler's Mental Game of Poker if you haven't read it yet.
Thanks Quantum. I agree and know you are right...just has been hard to focus on that while in the middle of it. Wish I could be a robot sometimes.

Have not read Tendler but will check it out. Thx for the reco.

Shorn
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Old 03-12-2019, 09:01 AM   #23272
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by shorn7 View Post
My 2019 has not started off well:

Hours: 84
P/L: ($645)
Hourly ($7.70)

Specific Game results:
1/2 NL: ($442) over 31 hours
2/5 NL: ($1878) over 34 hours
1/3 PLO: +$1,585 over 19 hours

I know a very small sample size so far, but I feel like I am really struggling compared to last year. Nothing has come easy and all and I feel like it has been one step forward, two steps back (indeed, I have only logged 14 winning sessions out of 27).

I have a huge problem with "breakeven tilt", especially when I see what I consider "bad" players winning big. I have taken a a few weeks off here and re-read Zen and the Art of Poker as well as the Tao of Poker.

Will head back to the tables next weekend to keep plugging. Hope to turn things around.

GL to all.

Shorn
As others have said, the sample is very micro.

When transitioning to $2/$5 NL, more than a couple of times I dropped to back $1/$2 NL to plug some leaks like hero calling, opening KQo from UTG in an aggressive game, cbetting on misses, etc. I don’t know how many hours you have logged at $2/$5 NL, nevertheless, tightening up your game with some $1/$2 NL volume probably couldn’t hurt.

Also, don't feel ashamed about booking a W in a short session, especially if the game is only so-so.

GL.
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Old 03-12-2019, 10:15 AM   #23273
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm waiting to start posting numbers, but my sample size is LOL, too. I only play once, maybe twice a week (sometimes not at all), so it's going to take a while before anything counts. I deleted all of my info from last year Running well this year, though. Up $5,805 over 47 hours at 1/2 and 1/3. However, I play in a very small room with a limited player pool. I really feel as if my game has improved because I'm able to play the player better than ever. I'm heading to Vegas in April, so we'll see how playing new players works out. I play mostly PLO there and higher NL, though, so quite different

I am not a fan of buying in short, but I do think it can help you play tighter and maybe change your mindset for a session or two. One thing that can definitely help is sticking to your "rack up" limits -- either stop loss or stop win or a certain time, but go when it's time to go!

GL all.
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Old 03-12-2019, 01:39 PM   #23274
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If tilt has reduced our edge, then the added benefit of being "better" than them while deep isn't worth nearly what it would be if we were on our A game, in fact it might be negative. So buying in short can help mitigate our losses if we're playing like trash.

Sometimes just booking a couple of small wins is all it takes to un**** one's mental state.

Shorn: I wouldn't be stressed about those results at all. The sample size is so small it's nothing. Literally *one* stack vs. stack pot puts your $1/2 results even.
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Old 03-12-2019, 03:11 PM   #23275
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Barbero View Post
So I've looked through some of this thread but have a hard time finding anything.

When you think of your br (let's say 20 buy ins). Are you thinking of it as 20 buy ins of or 2000 bb? Do you have different br requirements for a 2/5 $500 max game and a 2/5 $1000 max game?

I would assume variance in bb/100 is smaller for winning players in the deeper game, but not sure how that affects recommend br.
Standard deviation is the more useful stat, which is the square root of the variance. People also get confused with the term variance because it has an alternative colloquial meaning that sometimes contradicts the formal definition. I think it would be better to avoid using the term variance unless necessary, and use standard deviation instead.

For the record, the unit of variance is the square of the units of the original measurement. Here it is winrate measured in $/h for live games, so the unit of variance is ($/h)^2. Standard deviation is measured in the same units as winrate, $/h.

Standard deviation increases with stack depth, and you should have a larger bankroll (in BBs) to play it. Calculate bankroll requirements in BBs. I'm not sure how standard deviation scales with stack depth, but I think it's likely sub-linear. You don't need to double your bankroll when you double your buy-in size.
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