Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-06-2019, 12:02 PM   #23126
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
Poker is a game. Games are supposed to be enjoyable. This sounds like the exact opposite of enjoyable. You're basically watching paint dry for 21/hour, which sounds great - until you actually try to watch paint dry and realize that it blows.
I would guess I enjoy my time at the table more than anyone else, but that's just a guess based on what I see.

To bring it back to winrates: unless you're a wizard, winning poker for the rest of us is mostly super "boring" poker.

GbuteachtotheirownG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-06-2019, 12:32 PM   #23127
AlanBostick
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
AlanBostick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: twitch.tv/pokershaman59
Posts: 10,836
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sometimes winning poker is more excitement than a person wants: "Jeebus, do I really want to commit ten percent of my stack by four-bet bluffing A2s? No, but it's the right thing to do. Here goes. . . ."
AlanBostick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-06-2019, 09:21 PM   #23128
LongDTravis
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 360
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

GG - how deep do you get before you switch tables/leave? I have experimented with playing a 60-70 BB stack at 2/5 and 5/10 lately when I can get in a game. My "problem" is I've been running my stack to 130-200 BB and stall out for hours or punt some/all of it.
LongDTravis is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-06-2019, 10:58 PM   #23129
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If your job or your life is busy and stressful ... sometimes just sitting at a table, people watching and bull****ting is relaxing and worth it. Even if you're not "playing a lot of hands". If you can relax and have a winrate > your other hobby, then it's worth playing. (Not that that doesn't even need to be > $0/hr.)
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2019, 11:45 AM   #23130
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by LongDTravis View Post
GG - how deep do you get before you switch tables/leave? I have experimented with playing a 60-70 BB stack at 2/5 and 5/10 lately when I can get in a game. My "problem" is I've been running my stack to 130-200 BB and stall out for hours or punt some/all of it.
Probably a little too much of a strategy question versus winrates discussion for this thread. But very short answer: Can effectively rathole by moving to a shorter stacked table / where deeper stacks aren't difficult players, and otherwise if uncomfortable deep at the particular table can either (a) play extremely tight/nitty/passively and attempt to play small pots with everything but ~nuttish postflop hands or (b) leave. I wouldn't be too concerned about "stalling out for hours" as most of boring poker is simply treading water for hours on end until something really good happens.

G12.7bb/hrover62hoursin2019,winrates!G
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2019, 03:00 PM   #23131
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So late for the new year, but to summarize 2018:

660.6 hours at $7.95/hr for a pretty "blah" result overall.

The funny thing is that only 124.9 hours of that was NLHE last year, the other 535.7 hours were all from $1/2 PLO home games. 2017 was a 232/390 split.

Sun-running at $85.93/hr over 44 hours in 2019 though
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2019, 03:40 PM   #23132
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Angrist, did you do much better in NL vs PLO (or vice-versa) or was it all about the same?

Gcongratsonthewinningyear,imoG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2019, 04:02 PM   #23133
twitcherroo
old hand
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 1,961
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
If your job or your life is busy and stressful ... sometimes just sitting at a table, people watching and bull****ting is relaxing and worth it. Even if you're not "playing a lot of hands". If you can relax and have a winrate > your other hobby, then it's worth playing. (Not that that doesn't even need to be > $0/hr.)
Completely agree. If a guys is making money with a style he’s good at and enjoys, is that crushing? If I could squeeze out 2 more BB’s an hour but my enjoyablity drops or stress increases then i’d 100% forgo the additional $$’s.

I should also say that l’m at $252/hr at $2/5 for ALL of 2019 so i’m A super-baller and my opinion should count double everyone else’s.

Last edited by twitcherroo; 02-07-2019 at 04:05 PM. Reason: Is 18 hrs a significant sample size??
twitcherroo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2019, 05:24 PM   #23134
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

GG:

In 2017
$7.40/hr in NLHE
$14.76/hr for PLO

In 2018
$2.39/hr in NLHE
$9.25/hr for PLO

But with only 125 hours that 2018 NLHE rate really doesn't mean anything. I lost about $1500 in the first 3 NLHE sessions of the year with stuff like AA < QT preflop, top-2 to TPTK that piled it in and rivered it, etc. So that's like -$100/hr for 15 hours, then +$20/hr for 110 hours or so. 2017 was probably more 'normal' but I don't remember details as I really didn't get to play it that often.

Overall my lifetime WR in PLO is about $2/hr higher than NLHE. But if I trim out the early stuff when I was just learning the game and making a lot of stupid mistakes it's more like $10-15/hr higher.

I've actually adopted a strategy that I think you'd love for PLO. SUPER tight. I never raise preflop unless I can get my whole stack in multi-way with a *really* big hand like AAKxss+. I'll call a decent number of $5-15 bets preflop, but won't call a $50 re-pot without position and a monster. I never lead out in EP post flop OTF. Sometimes OTT or OTR depending on the players. But mostly I'll check raise the nuts or big draws post. Get a lot of folds and some bitching from a couple of the regs, but still get paid off so whatever. This is probably an extreme strategy, but it's an adjustment to the insanity of the games that I play in and the level of knowledge we all have about each other. There are crazy stupid action players pushing it every other hand, and enough people know that I'm on the tighter side and that I have a big hand when I bet, so I get more value by letting them do it.


Twitch: Exactly. It's even more pronounced in a smaller pool like a home game circuit. You get to know all of the people to some level, and it's a lot more fun to BS with them about sports and other things.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2019, 05:51 PM   #23135
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^^^^

I know nothing about PLO (have literally never played a hand, not even sure I completely understand the rules, exactly 2 cards have to play?, lol), so kinda thankful my room has never spread it (especially afraid it might kill the NL action / make reg losers go busto quicker). They spread it in at least one other local room but I don't think it's really the game for me (although your strat seems right up my alley, lol).

Agreed that you can't base much on your NL results on so few hours last year; run better!

Gcongratsontheresultsgettingintoanewgame,imoG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2019, 06:48 PM   #23136
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

PLO is great.

Everyone gets 4 cards, and you must use EXACTLY 2 from your hand to make the best possible 5 card hand. So on a board with QQQJ2, if you have 8766 you beat AKJT, since you have QQQ66 and he has QQQAK. If there's a 4 flush on board and you have the A of that suit you *don't* have a flush. Makes for some interesting spots and places where people can misread their hands.

You can only bet the amount of the pot at any time, which *seems* like it should make the game smaller than a No Limit game, but it doesn't since it grows so fast. It's also hilarious when someones says "re-pot", gets told 'that's $850 sir', and turns green because they didn't realize how big it would be.


All of the local home games have switched to PLO, the local charity rooms that used to have crazy NLHE action have adopted it and all the big action players are at the PLO table, and even the Casinos have started spreading it regularly. Those guys *love* it because they always have a draw (or think they do) and no hand is bad enough to fold (lol).

I know that it's made the local NLHE games *worse*. I wouldn't want to put a $/hr number on it, but you can tell from the overall action, the players that are sitting at the table, stack sizes, and how often the chip runners show up. I've watched action players that used to play 3-4 times a week for 3 years straight go busto when they switched to PLO and only show up 3-4 times a month now. It's made a lot more of the NLHE action like 'day-game' rock garden tables instead of weekend spewfests.

There's a lot more variance in PLO (good for the fish), but there's also a vastly bigger upside than NLHE since people are SO incredibly bad at it and just can't help themselves. It's probably good for poker overall, but the size of a $1/2 PLO game crushes most rec players bankrolls.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2019, 12:14 AM   #23137
akdlfjsif
stranger
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 4
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I don't think I'm in the top 10 best players in my room (only one 2/5 game) but here goes.

2/5: 21.95/hour over 134 hours
1/3: 35.87/hour over 93 hours

feels pretty bad to not even be making that much at 2/5. Also on a 10bi downswing which is the third time I've had a downswing that big in the last 6 months. I guess I gotta keep grinding and maybe I'll get out of it someday.
akdlfjsif is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2019, 12:19 AM   #23138
DeathCabForTootie
Pooh-Bah
 
DeathCabForTootie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: SHR Tunaments
Posts: 5,722
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Your sample size is a blip on the radar. Keep making good decisions.
DeathCabForTootie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2019, 12:21 AM   #23139
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by akdlfjsif View Post
I don't think I'm in the top 10 best players in my room (only one 2/5 game) but here goes.

2/5: 21.95/hour over 134 hours
1/3: 35.87/hour over 93 hours

feels pretty bad to not even be making that much at 2/5. Also on a 10bi downswing which is the third time I've had a downswing that big in the last 6 months. I guess I gotta keep grinding and maybe I'll get out of it someday.
You've had three 10 buy in down swings in 227 hours? That cant be right can it?
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2019, 01:23 AM   #23140
AlanBostick
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
AlanBostick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: twitch.tv/pokershaman59
Posts: 10,836
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

... and they still come out 4bb/hour ahead!
AlanBostick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2019, 03:57 AM   #23141
akdlfjsif
stranger
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 4
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
You've had three 10 buy in down swings in 227 hours? That cant be right can it?
last 600 hours but I lost my data for the previous 400
akdlfjsif is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-18-2019, 02:49 PM   #23142
rainbow57
grinder
 
rainbow57's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 668
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I would like to know what LA regs like myself think is attainable for 5/10. I have about 270 hours at 5/10 at Commerce and WR is $97.4. I am assuming LA is softer than other parts of the country due to the insane money people have here, but I dont know for sure.

My general feel is that $100/hr is achievable by only the absolute best at this level. It feels like you have to be on your A game, paying attention, and not make too many mistakes (I always strive for that but we're all human).

Anyone have a decent sample at Commerce 5/10?
rainbow57 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-18-2019, 04:31 PM   #23143
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by rainbow57 View Post
I would like to know what LA regs like myself think is attainable for 5/10. I have about 270 hours at 5/10 at Commerce and WR is $97.4. I am assuming LA is softer than other parts of the country due to the insane money people have here, but I dont know for sure.

My general feel is that $100/hr is achievable by only the absolute best at this level. It feels like you have to be on your A game, paying attention, and not make too many mistakes (I always strive for that but we're all human).

Anyone have a decent sample at Commerce 5/10?
I have zero doubt that $100-$135/hr and maybe more is possible at Commerce 5/10. I have nowhere near enough of a sample there to know what my actual win rate would be but I saw enough when I played there to know how much softer it is than other 5/10 games Ive played in.

Also, I think $75/hr is sustainable long term at Commerce 5/5.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-19-2019, 03:06 AM   #23144
7weeks2days
adept
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 895
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I believe the sustainable hourlies are much lower than you guys tend to think long term.
I would be confident in saying that there isn't one reg with long term hourlies at either level at either game nowadays. The fact you are so confident is scary because you will most likely find the reality very frustrating if you choose to find out the hard way.
7weeks2days is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-19-2019, 04:34 AM   #23145
acescracked84
old hand
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Beautiful Southern California
Posts: 1,420
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^^^^^ You guys run super hot if you believe that. But, I mean I take money from people all the time that think like that and disappear in a year or two.
acescracked84 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-19-2019, 05:41 AM   #23146
typesick
centurion
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 115
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Something like $175/hr at 5/10 and 100/hr at 5/5. Maybe higher.
typesick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-19-2019, 06:22 AM   #23147
QuantumSurfer
old hand
 
QuantumSurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Home on the Range
Posts: 1,943
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by rainbow57 View Post
I would like to know what LA regs like myself think is attainable for 5/10. I have about 270 hours at 5/10 at Commerce and WR is $97.4. I am assuming LA is softer than other parts of the country due to the insane money people have here, but I dont know for sure.

My general feel is that $100/hr is achievable by only the absolute best at this level. It feels like you have to be on your A game, paying attention, and not make too many mistakes (I always strive for that but we're all human).

Anyone have a decent sample at Commerce 5/10?
There's maybe a handful of players that actually reach $100/hr at 5/10. From coaches whose stats I, a stranger in the internet trust, the average expectation for an solid grinder is near $75/hr.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I have zero doubt that $100-$135/hr and maybe more is possible at Commerce 5/10. I have nowhere near enough of a sample there to know what my actual win rate would be but I saw enough when I played there to know how much softer it is than other 5/10 games Ive played in.

Also, I think $75/hr is sustainable long term at Commerce 5/5.
Kinda hard to judge a place when you're there as a tourist. If you only play Fri night, Sat night, and Sunday, you might be able to break $100/hr with aggressive table selection. Commerce 5/10 gets overrun with waves of Euros and if you're grinding full time, that means you're playing a lot more games with foreign and local grinders where you're racing to the zero much more than exploiting spewtards. The game's also capped at 150 bigs and there are no straddles so you're not as deep as other 5/10 games that often play 5/10/20. Props to you if you can crush at the rates you said, but from the locals with stats I actually trust, there's maybe 2 people that go above $100/hr in that game.

$75/hr in the 5/5 is ludicrous. The game's capped at $500 and the house takes $7 from every hand that gets to a river, $6 that sees a flop. I guarantee you no one makes $75/hr in that game & the teeny portion of all poker players that might have such a skill set do not browse 2+2 LLSNL.


Quote:
Originally Posted by typesick View Post
Something like $175/hr at 5/10 and 100/hr at 5/5. Maybe higher.
That's mere fantasy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by acescracked84 View Post
^^^^^ You guys run super hot if you believe that. But, I mean I take money from people all the time that think like that and disappear in a year or two.
This guy puts in volume.
QuantumSurfer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-19-2019, 06:32 AM   #23148
sevencard2003
banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: las vegas
Posts: 2,642
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by rainbow57 View Post
I am assuming LA is softer than other parts of the country due to the insane money people have here, but I dont know for sure.
most people in LA have insane amounts of money? gee everytime i ever walk into any store, or down the street, or on the bus i see nothing but desperately broke and homeless people sleeping outside, asking for money, and living in dirt poverty. at least about 25-40% of the population.
sevencard2003 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-19-2019, 08:37 AM   #23149
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ill agree that its hard to judge a place when you only played there 5-6 days as a tourist like I did. However, I have over 4000 live hours so I have plenty of experience to work off of. Almost all of my hours in L.A. were weekday daytime hours and my mouth was hanging open half the time I was playing because the overall play was so bad. The action there was insane compared to what I'm used to. Its like the place is in a time warp and its still 2004. I can only imagine what evenings and weekend are like.

I know what my overall win rate is and I know how much action and how much softer Commerce (and all 4 L.A. rooms that I played) were compared to my main rooms and all other rooms Ive played. That brings me to the estimates I gave of obtainable win rates. Obviously I don't know for sure but I'm confidant those numbers are possible.

Of course the cost of living in L.A. is sky high so if you factor that in, the cost of living adjusted win rates in L.A. could easily be lower than plenty of other places.

Last edited by MikeStarr; 02-19-2019 at 08:51 AM.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-19-2019, 11:22 AM   #23150
jelloman
journeyman
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 368
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Is there a thread I can read to get my confidence back from this never-ending losing streak ? This is month # 3 and I am really sick of it.

Wondering if I'm also playing poorly because of it. Im actually expecting to see the only hand that beats me at showdown even if it doesn't make sense for V to have that hand.

I don't want to whine, but I think I could use a thread to show how other players deal with this.

Been tracking my results for 5 + years and have only had a couple of losing months in that time. And yes, I know losing streaks can go longer. Just wanna make sure what I'm seeing is actual variance and not operator error.

Stakes are 1-2 NL btw.

Thx !
jelloman is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:41 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive