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Old 02-04-2019, 07:18 PM   #23101
KatoKrazy
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by typesick View Post
How many consecutive years can my friends and I run above expectation?
Like I said in the post you quoted, ALL the years, a lifetime.
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Old 02-04-2019, 07:28 PM   #23102
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Vegas, Florida, Cali, New Jersey, etc. In fairness, I think these people are the best players in the game...at least among the people I’ve encountered.

Last edited by typesick; 02-04-2019 at 07:34 PM.
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Old 02-04-2019, 08:17 PM   #23103
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Excellent question that fits well with the thread IMO. How many hours per year are you guys logging? What are your results?
Well in one of his posts that got deleted he implied why grind 2000 hours when you can play 1000 instead for a guaranteed $60k like clockwork. Sounds like they have a real strong work ethic.
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Old 02-04-2019, 08:22 PM   #23104
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How many consecutive years can my friends and I run above expectation?


Um, all.

It's possible to run above EV for your entire life
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Old 02-04-2019, 08:40 PM   #23105
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Well in one of his posts that got deleted he implied why grind 2000 hours when you can play 1000 instead for a guaranteed $60k like clockwork. Sounds like they have a real strong work ethic.
That’s not what I said. I said it’s very possible (and even expected) for certain regs to make 60k in 1000 hours or fewer. I didn’t say or imply that someone should stop playing once they hit the 60k mark. That’s obviously not the case, as none of the players I’m talking about stop each year when they hit that number.
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Old 02-05-2019, 01:14 AM   #23106
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Now that I’ve lurked the whole short stack vs. deep stack conversation/debate; and we’ve decided (I think) that playing 50bb deep isn’t as aids inducing as some around here make it out to be..will the variance be lower assuming we play this strategy well allowing for less complicated decisions/getting in ahead more often than not or will variance be higher employing this halfstack strategy since we’re going to be all-in a lot?

Can we get away with a smaller than usual starting bankroll employing this strategy (10-15 BI as opposed to 20-30) with a similar risk of ruin or is that a fallacy?

Edit: I played with a reg for a while who told me 1,000 was fine to start at 1/2 and I deduced that he was a winning/thinking player. Still not sure if I believe him
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Old 02-05-2019, 01:30 AM   #23107
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Originally Posted by BigEyedFish View Post
Edit: I played with a reg for a while who told me 1,000 was fine to start at 1/2 and I deduced that he was a winning/thinking player. Still not sure if I believe him
You probably shouldn't. Most live regs have zero clue what they're talking about and a ton think they are +EV when they aren't.
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Old 02-05-2019, 02:18 AM   #23108
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Originally Posted by BigEyedFish View Post
Now that I’ve lurked the whole short stack vs. deep stack conversation/debate; and we’ve decided (I think) that playing 50bb deep isn’t as aids inducing as some around here make it out to be..will the variance be lower assuming we play this strategy well allowing for less complicated decisions/getting in ahead more often than not or will variance be higher employing this halfstack strategy since we’re going to be all-in a lot?

Can we get away with a smaller than usual starting bankroll employing this strategy (10-15 BI as opposed to 20-30) with a similar risk of ruin or is that a fallacy?

Edit: I played with a reg for a while who told me 1,000 was fine to start at 1/2 and I deduced that he was a winning/thinking player. Still not sure if I believe him
Playing 50BB is fine if that's what you enjoy. People hate on shortstackers for various reasons but you can definitely do it and be nearly as successful as full-stackers if you're good at it, and with less swings.

Shortstacks should experience lower variance, although some people are going to post after me telling me I'm wrong.

$1000 is "fine" as a bankroll for a rec player who doesn't plan on adding or taking any money to/from it, especially if you're shortstacking. You have a decent chance of going broke. I hope you can play well with that fact hanging over your head constantly.
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Old 02-05-2019, 08:05 AM   #23109
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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
Playing 50BB is fine if that's what you enjoy. People hate on shortstackers for various reasons but you can definitely do it and be nearly as successful as full-stackers if you're good at it, and with less swings.

Shortstacks should experience lower variance, although some people are going to post after me telling me I'm wrong.

$1000 is "fine" as a bankroll for a rec player who doesn't plan on adding or taking any money to/from it, especially if you're shortstacking. You have a decent chance of going broke. I hope you can play well with that fact hanging over your head constantly.
I shortstacked 5/10 games online back in the day and although I made a ton of money, my variance was higher than I ever saw coming. So, yeah, Im gonna say youre wrong.
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Old 02-05-2019, 09:19 AM   #23110
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I shortstacked 5/10 games online back in the day and although I made a ton of money, my variance was higher than I ever saw coming. So, yeah, Im gonna say youre wrong.
How many hands did you play? Your experience of shortstacking mid stakes online might not be as vast as you think. I can't help but doubt your claim is actually based on a decent sample size.
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Old 02-05-2019, 03:27 PM   #23111
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I'm still very unclear on it, as I don't understand the nit vs lag variance concept very well at all.

All I can do is refer to my results.

I think it would be agreed that I likely play a very nitty style.

I've played 4328 hours at 1/3 NL.

I've never been on a 1000bb downswing.

I've only been on a 500bb+ downswing 6 times. I've only been on a 800bb+ downswing 2 times.

Over my last 1020 hours of my most nitty Super Nit style, here's a breakdown of my results:

140 sessions over 1020 hours (averaging 7.3 hours per session), 66.4% session winrate, 6.06 bb/hr, SD = 45.06 bb/hr

+200bbs: 9
-200bbs: 1

+300bbs: 6
-300bbs: 1

+400bbs: 0
-400bbs: 0

Sessions that were less than +/- 200bbs: 123 (i.e. 88%).

My last session out was a perfect example of this. In an 11 hour session, I got stacks in and was called exactly twice: $200 stacks with KK vs AK preflop, and $40 stacks with 88 vs AK preflop, losing them both. I lost $95 (32bb) overall on the session.

Maybe I'm not understanding what variance is, or maybe I'm not understanding exactly what a super nitty style is. But it seems to me I'm playing very nitty and yet having very low variance results, no?

Interestingly enough, those lone -200bb+ and -300bb+ sessions listed above came back-to-back and helped lead to a 800bb+ downswing; is this the variance everyone is talking about here? Or am I missing something?

GcluelessNLnoobG


How deep are you buying in for/what is your opening range like? Just out of pure curiosity.

(not sure if you’ve disclosed your regular room/game here before or if you play regularly with anyone itt so forgive me if answering my question is giving up EV and just ignore if so)
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Old 02-05-2019, 03:53 PM   #23112
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Originally Posted by BigEyedFish View Post
How deep are you buying in for/what is your opening range like?
I've mentioned this recently here in describing my more recent ~1000 hours Super Nit style, but:

- buying in / keeping stack topped of to 66bbs

- In EP/MP (and sometimes even in LP, table dependent) I mostly have a ~0% opening range (although this also depends on how tight/aggro/deep the table is, I mean, I still do open some hands in some spots)

GcluelesssupernittynoobG
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Old 02-05-2019, 05:21 PM   #23113
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
^^^^

Yeah, that's definitely possible. I mean, in EP I'm folding 66/A9s (super nitty!)... but in LP I'm seeing a cheap flop if possible with 74o (super loose?).

GcluelessvariancenoobG
Yeah if you look at equity calculators 66 is like top 16%, A9 top 10%, while 74o is like top 86%. So while PFR wise you're a super nit, VPIP wise you're probably greater than the 15% benchmark TAG (saw this posted somewhere in the forums not sure if it's absolute). These extra hands help you smooth your curve according to earlier posts, which makes sense to me.
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Old 02-05-2019, 06:46 PM   #23114
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Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
Yeah if you look at equity calculators 66 is like top 16%, A9 top 10%, while 74o is like top 86%. So while PFR wise you're a super nit, VPIP wise you're probably greater than the 15% benchmark TAG (saw this posted somewhere in the forums not sure if it's absolute). These extra hands help you smooth your curve according to earlier posts, which makes sense to me.
Yes, that makes some sense. I call this "mullet poker": all business up front but party in the back.

GcluelessmulletnoobG
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Old 02-05-2019, 07:27 PM   #23115
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I've mentioned this recently here in describing my more recent ~1000 hours Super Nit style, but:



- buying in / keeping stack topped of to 66bbs



- In EP/MP (and sometimes even in LP, table dependent) I mostly have a ~0% opening range (although this also depends on how tight/aggro/deep the table is, I mean, I still do open some hands in some spots)



GcluelesssupernittynoobG


Poker is a game. Games are supposed to be enjoyable. This sounds like the exact opposite of enjoyable. You're basically watching paint dry for 21/hour, which sounds great - until you actually try to watch paint dry and realize that it blows.

For my job a few years back i spent 7 months watching people watch other people do their job - not joking, effectively I watched the Watchmen, and add an obligatory lol-fed government. I was paid much more than 21/hour. It sounded awesome, until like the second week when I wanted to claw my eyes out. I could not image willingly do that for fun for years on end, but that's effectively what you have done.
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Old 02-05-2019, 07:44 PM   #23116
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I mean, some people think playing soccer is fun. Can we laugh at those people? Sure. But dont judge them for doing what they enjoy doing, imo.
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Old 02-05-2019, 07:55 PM   #23117
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JOTS - completely subjective mang. GG may ackshually having more fun than any 1 in the whole room. All I know is right now with a long term wr north of 50/hr I cant stand being in there for more than 3 hours dealing with the dooshyness of all those asshats...I personally think people that are rec players should find a new hobby and do something both fun and interesting....but some people absolutely love it - I guess that is what makes the werld an interesting place
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Old 02-05-2019, 08:09 PM   #23118
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I mean, some people think playing soccer is fun. Can we laugh at those people? Sure. But dont judge them for doing what they enjoy doing, imo.
+1

I love it too. Regardless of the style I try to play. Obviously it's more fun when you're winning.
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Old 02-05-2019, 08:12 PM   #23119
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if you play poker somewhere regularly, it should be somewhere that hanging out at (and i don’t mean firing in pits/at machines) isn’t the worst thing in the world imo. so if that’s true, i guess playing 0/0 and pretending to look at your cards (with free blinds for some reason) would also not be the worst thing in the world.

this is why dog track poker is the worst thing in the world imo
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Old 02-05-2019, 08:28 PM   #23120
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I mean, some people think playing soccer is fun. Can we laugh at those people? Sure. But dont judge them for doing what they enjoy doing, imo.


Please don't misunderstand what I was getting at, I'm by no means laughing at him or judging him. If anything, it's skewing more towards admiration than anything else. It takes an amazing amount of discipline to play the way gg does. A discipline I defiantly do not possess.
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Old 02-05-2019, 08:58 PM   #23121
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Vpiping 4 times an hr like G instead of 6 like a typical tag equating to enduring medal worthy boredom doesn't really make sense to me. Having to surrender my 16's at 21 tables that offered it never broke my heart...

He still gets to watch the ball game out of the corner of his eye, occassionally admire some nice boobs, etc. He can still talk sports, travel, food, etc. He still gets to see people gambling. Still gets to squeeze cards hoping for a big pair. Still gets to try to flop sets. Not getting to barrel three streets with a whiffed KT offsuit isn't exactly the same thing as isolation torture.

*notanendorsementofGsstyle
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Old 02-05-2019, 09:26 PM   #23122
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Please don't misunderstand what I was getting at, I'm by no means laughing at him or judging him. If anything, it's skewing more towards admiration than anything else. It takes an amazing amount of discipline to play the way gg does. A discipline I defiantly do not possess.
I see Im not the only guy who cant spell "definitely". I spelled it correctly this time but dont expect it to happen again.
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Old 02-05-2019, 09:28 PM   #23123
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Sometimes autocorrecting is worse than spelling the word wrong
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Old 02-05-2019, 09:37 PM   #23124
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Defiantly kind of makes sense still.
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Old 02-05-2019, 09:41 PM   #23125
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Defiantly kind of makes sense still.


I see what you did there
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