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Old 01-29-2019, 06:55 PM   #23051
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
GG

The tighter you play, the more at the mercy you are of run good /run bad / distribution of the cards. Run into a few sets with your big pairs and good luck making back that 2-300BBs when you dont play very many hands or very many medium to big pots.

A good LAG has a lot less overall variance of win rate IMO and win rate is a lot less dependent on any one or any small group of hands. That is the main explanation for your fairly big difference in results over 1000 hour samples. My 1000 hour samples (or even 500 hour samples have win rates that dont vary anywhere near as much as yours and mine are getting better and better as I play better. Your results bounce around randomly and are mostly dependent on how many of your premiums get paid off or get cracked. You cant really play that much better if you mostly playing premiums and pocket pairs and not much else.

So while it seems to you need massive sample sizes to get an idea of win rate, I contend that playing styles can affect that greatly.
Isn't SD a reflection of variance? I'm actually not really sure if that's the case or not (I really am clueless about it) but if it is (???) I've been told my SD is pretty small (which is why I included it above).

My whole method regarding big overpairs is to not really care if I run into sets. If I run into them in a limped pot, I lose a small pot. If I run into them in a limp/reraised pot for huge percentages of stacks preflop, nice hand sir.

And while I'm always wary of lol 1000 hour sample sizes, I think I was simply playing too loosely / laggier in my previous 1300 hour sample size (especially for the stacks sizes / rake / table conditions) than I am now. But I'm not really all that confident in reading too much into the ~50% increase in winrate over those spans either.

I will admit that I think it would be difficult to get some truly crushing winrates using the method I'm currently using. But, as you know, I question whether those unicorn rates are possible at these stakes / rake / stack sizes / conditions.

GworkinprogressG
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Old 01-29-2019, 07:04 PM   #23052
DumbosTrunk
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Nice giraffes, for a rec.... :P
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Old 01-29-2019, 07:07 PM   #23053
gobbledygeek
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Nice giraffes, for a rec.... :P
Ha, yeah, thanks!

I'm sure all the on-line guys are rolling their eyes at my lol 130K hand sample size (which has taken me 9 years to achieve as a live rec player).

Gbutwhattayagonnado?G
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Old 01-29-2019, 07:10 PM   #23054
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
And finally the overall mess to date at 4316:40 hours. 7.02 bb/hr (SD = 53.39 bb/hr). 9 years in and not even halfway to expert # of hours but amazingly mediocre! Never had one lesson!



Gbutwhatdoesitallmean?G
LOL not even close to mediocre mang! I am sure most of the players in the 1/2 pool are envious of your w/r. That is one damn fine looking giraffe. And although your play style is far from sexy you prove that it does in fact get the money. Well done sir.
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Old 01-29-2019, 07:16 PM   #23055
wj294
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$10k p.a in tax free money from a hobby, not too shabby GG.
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Old 01-29-2019, 08:24 PM   #23056
Homey D. Clown
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While I respect, even admire someone's discipline to be able to play a style like that, I can't imagine it being any fun at all. And for us rec players fun should also be an important factor as to why we're playing this game, next to profitability. At least in my opinion. But I guess one man's benumbing grind is another man's fun and games.
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Old 01-29-2019, 09:27 PM   #23057
Avaritia
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Incredible gg. Truly impressive.

Wow.
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Old 01-29-2019, 10:32 PM   #23058
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Wp GG! You do what works in your player pool.
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Old 01-29-2019, 11:06 PM   #23059
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Nice graphs GG. I really appreciated the feedback you gave me on the hands I played when I was starting out and I’m glad to see you are continuing to have success.
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Old 01-30-2019, 04:47 AM   #23060
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Sure, but you are a lot more likely to go on a bad run if you lose AA 7 times in a row or something like that.
This will basically never happen when 4 or 5 out of 7 times you pick up the pot pre-flop.
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Old 01-30-2019, 06:07 AM   #23061
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Yeah, again, most of the time deeper is better, just saying people shouldn't treat it as gospel, and most certainly shouldn't make decisions around it based on ego, as I believe many do. There are a lot of variables.
If you are good, and you aren't scared money, then playing deeper will double your winrate, especially if you are in a short-handed game.



Being deep allows you to literally "buy the pot" preflop over nervous limpers and tight pros that dont know how to adjust to being 3-bet 6x over their late position raise.


The fish also start to spazz out and pay you off massively post flop by going all in with one pair and flush draws because they equate your large pre-flop bets with being a maniac post flop. But you are always getting it in good for huge money.
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Old 01-30-2019, 06:54 AM   #23062
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Originally Posted by Homey D. Clown View Post
While I respect, even admire someone's discipline to be able to play a style like that, I can't imagine it being any fun at all. And for us rec players fun should also be an important factor as to why we're playing this game, next to profitability. At least in my opinion. But I guess one man's benumbing grind is another man's fun and games.
Its not fun. And worse of all, its not fun to play with for the rec players. If everyone in the player pool played that tight the whales would play less and less frequently. If GG ever played in a game full of rocks, he would be a lot less likely to advocate playing tight/passive and buying in for 66BB's.

I'll give GG credit, It's pretty solid for exploiting bottom of the barrel, no discipline, 1/3 players in a full ring game. It's also a fool-proof method for avoiding tilt and making any huge mathematical mistakes. Just avoiding tilt alone can add 2-3 BB's an hour for most players.

With that said, it's not the be all-end all- strategy for 1-3. There is still edge to be gained from loosening up a bit pre-flop. For example, squeezing over limpers to 15x when you are in the BB, and also turning EP folding hands like ATo-AQo into limp-reraise semibluffs. These plays pick up a ton of dead money when you have a rock image. Obviously pick your spots well and dont do it when a maniac is in the game. But other than that, people are going to fold to a nit that limp-reraises and has always shown up with the goods everytime in the past. Winning these pots rake-free every few hours can add a good $5 an hour to your winrate, not to mention the meta-game factors of getting your opponents tilted and creating a more gambley atmosphere where big money starts flying around.

Those were just a couple small examples that would be easy for a nit to add into his game. When you factor in iso 3-betting the aggro spewy regs in late position with Axss+, AJo+, KJss+, 88+ you can probably add another $5 an hour to your current winrate.

Last edited by bodybuilder32; 01-30-2019 at 07:13 AM.
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Old 01-30-2019, 09:10 AM   #23063
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Wandering too much in to strat. There's a tidge of winrate in the on-the-edge posts, so I'm not going to delete them, but just a reminder that this thread is not for strategy discussions per se.
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Old 01-30-2019, 12:52 PM   #23064
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Wandering too much in to strat. There's a tidge of winrate in the on-the-edge posts, so I'm not going to delete them, but just a reminder that this thread is not for strategy discussions per se.
+1

FWIW, while I appreciate all the discussion / kudos / etc., the post wasn't really for barg purposes, but rather:

1) To show how "easy" it is to have quite different "long" stretches at quite vastly different winrates. I have a 1013 hour sample at 12.79 bb/hr (within a 2000 hour sample at 9.4 bb/hr). I have a 1307 hour sample at 3.97 bb/hr. And samples in between. All playing in the same game (which has admittedly had condition changes over the years) all using more-or-less the same method (which again has admittedly had some strategy tweaks over the years). All within what is more-or-less a fairly steady-as-she-goes overall 25 degree angle upwards line. Exciting rock star poker savant? Or boring super nit? I have samples that suggest I'm both. Is there that much difference?

2) To show that you can still win by having a different approach to preflop (which I constantly get hammered on here). Ok, fully admit my results aren't rock star. And I'm certainly not suggesting my approach is best / the only way to win (far from it). But the approach likely does better than most would give credit for (while at the same time putting myself in my wheelhouse). Although, I'm also still not completely convinced either way that my sample size is meaningful (i.e. I certainly don't expect to dig into / dig out of a massive downswing within every 1000 hour sample size, but I guess time will tell).

GcluelessconclusionsnoobG
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Old 01-30-2019, 01:11 PM   #23065
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I would argue average stack depth and player tendencies (“nurture”) has way more of an impact on variance than whether you identify as TAG or LAG (“nature”). You are a product of your environment.
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Old 01-30-2019, 01:26 PM   #23066
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Yeah, for sure agreed, but note that we have no control over those factors. And when it comes to stack depth, this will work like the factors mentioned above. The deeper the stacks, the more variance session to session, but the lower the standard error in our winrate.
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Old 01-30-2019, 05:17 PM   #23067
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I certainly don't expect to dig into / dig out of a massive downswing within every 1000 hour sample size
I feel like at 1/3 if you're near the top which your results suggest you are, should definitely be doable. I've yet to hear of a strong winning reg at 1/3 with a 1000 hour break even stretch.
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Old 01-30-2019, 06:12 PM   #23068
gobbledygeek
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I feel like at 1/3 if you're near the top which your results suggest you are, should definitely be doable. I've yet to hear of a strong winning reg at 1/3 with a 1000 hour break even stretch.
Just to clarify, what I meant is that within my 1000 hour stint at Super Nit I encountered a 200 hour stretch where I dug into / dug out of my tied-for-biggest downswing, which obviously had a huge affect on my winrate during that overall period. Course, I can't ignore that this method also produced that downswing either; I just hope (?!?!) this method doesn't lean to producing one of these every ~1000 hours and rather optimistically (foolishly?) think the long term using this method will start to smooth out and produce an even better overall result.

Whether a strong winning reg at 1/3 NL can have a 1000 hour breakeven stretch is another question. I haven't thought about it enough / attempted to search for data the suggests either way. My initial guess is that it's possible but that's purely an uneducated guess.

GfoolishdreamerG
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Old 01-30-2019, 08:32 PM   #23069
MikeStarr
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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
I kind of roll my eyes at all the "benefits of LAG" talk.

Once you get to $10/20 and higher there really aren't winning LAGs anymore. Someone playing close to 40/30 is going to get owned by most regs these days. Note: opening 87s in MP is not LAG.
Someone playing 40/30 is going to get owned by most regs in a 2/5 game. It doesnt need to be a 10/20 game for that to happen.

IMO 40/30 is not a LAG, its a maniac. I dont think anyone can play that way profitably unless they are at the weakest table ever.
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Old 01-31-2019, 12:21 PM   #23070
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Wanted to upload my graph now that I've crossed about 500 hours. I've moved to 2/5 exclusively since about hour 400 and hopefully won't need to drop down, but it's definitely a possibility. I've played since college, but this is the first time I've really kept detailed records. Thanks for the support and HH reviews!

Overall hourly rate is $15.79 and January's Hourly Rate is $27.



Marsh
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Old 01-31-2019, 12:27 PM   #23071
gobbledygeek
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Nice start Marshy!

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Old 01-31-2019, 01:31 PM   #23072
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So if playing a shorter 66BB stack, do you just not play/set-mine say small pairs from late position if there is a raise? Play them and plan to bluff with them?

I guess if raises were 3BB, you'd be okay, but in games I play typical is 4-5BB raises.
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:45 PM   #23073
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The question seems out of place for the thread, but the answer is pretty much entirely tied up in the opponent: will they stack off light? are they fit-or-fold? what implied odds do they offer with big one pair hands?
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Old 01-31-2019, 02:02 PM   #23074
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I saw GG mentioning his style with his winrate.
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Old 01-31-2019, 02:11 PM   #23075
gobbledygeek
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Originally Posted by businessdude View Post
So if playing a shorter 66BB stack, do you just not play/set-mine say small pairs from late position if there is a raise? Play them and plan to bluff with them?

I guess if raises were 3BB, you'd be okay, but in games I play typical is 4-5BB raises.
As mentioned, too much a strat question for this thread.

Quick answer: I don't play 66- in EP at all now (and often not in MP either) and in MP/LP it all "depends" (size of raise relative to stacks, how multiway I expect it to go, whether I'm playing a field of morons vs people with half a clue, where I'm seated relative to the raiser and the world, etc.).

ETA: To bring it back more to a winratey sorta question, keep in mind that everyone else at your table is always playing 66-22, and most of them are losers. That's not to say you can't be a winning player and play them. But overall it's my guess that the weaker pairs only make up a very small percentage of a winning player's overall winrate, while for the losing players it's just another losing hand that contributes to their overall losing winrate. If you're somewhere between a rock star and a loser, it's likely fine to pass on them. IMO.

GcluelessNLnoobG

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