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Old 01-24-2019, 03:53 PM   #23026
browni3141
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

FWIW, I have a friend who buys in for 40BB at 2|5 and table changes when he doubles up so he almost never ends up playing full stacked (the room lets you come down when you table change). He is winning $40/h over a few thousand hours and his graph looks like it was drawn with a ruler.
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Old 01-24-2019, 06:46 PM   #23027
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In case it’s not clear I never suggested it’s not usually best to be deep if you’re a good player who can afford it.

Most of you aren’t though (nor are lots of people who think they are), and would be better off being closer to a 40 dollar hourly with a line drawn with a ruler, or at least start from there, get good at basic first, before you start getting involved in spots you can’t begin to understand because you literally do not have the tools for it.
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Old 01-24-2019, 06:51 PM   #23028
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Also, if you’re not able to get stacked for a 800bb pot and then rebuy for 40bbs or whatever your usual buyin is, and play well, then you’re not professional enough.

I always find it hilarious when pros start rebuying in deeper and deeper because they’re tilted. They justify it by saying the game is good, but everyone including themselves know if they just joined the table they wouldn’t have pulled up.

Thing is everyone knows it’s tilt, but live players are lazy undisciplined fools, so they just wave it away and say it’s standard.


Bottom line is, good short stack strategy is literally unbeatable, so considering how so many of you can barely beat the game, maybe don’t laugh at it. If it’s good enough for millionaire regs on pokerstars, it’s probably good enough for you.
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Old 01-24-2019, 07:31 PM   #23029
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Good short stackers are also terrible for the game. Whales wonít have any fun and will never suck out in a big pot against them. Putting nasty beats on ďprosĒ then seeing them whine and tilt afterwards is half the reason I still play.
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Old 01-24-2019, 07:50 PM   #23030
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

There's no rule saying that what's best for the individual is also what's best for the game.

There's definitely a hint of some tragedy of the commons dynamic going on in poker in regards to short stacking.

How much you want to abuse that is up to you. Personally, I think starting a table around 60-70bb is great until you get a feel for the game. Then feel free to play deeper, whether by doubling up through someone or by topping up. But I'm a rec player so what do I know.
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Old 01-24-2019, 07:53 PM   #23031
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
Good short stackers are also terrible for the game. Whales wonít have any fun and will never suck out in a big pot against them. Putting nasty beats on ďprosĒ then seeing them whine and tilt afterwards is half the reason I still play.
Actually good deep stack players are terrible for the game. A good deep stack player will wipe out rec players and whales much faster than any good short stacker will. When the bad players get busted deep over and over and then stop coming back, the games suck.
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Old 01-24-2019, 08:36 PM   #23032
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I don't know if a 1000bb rock reg who just wakes up with the nuts is good for the game either. At least a short stacking will give light action sometimes and get in some all in pots. All antisocial behavior is bad for the game, but acting like those vegas nit regs who just waits to stack a tourist are better than short stackers inherently seems way off.

Anyone can be social or anti social, and you can be fun for the game as a short stacker and have a good time, chat with people, get involved in pots, and so on so forth. Lots of people including fish enjoy the dynamic of playing big stacks and also small stacks, sometimes they say things like "oof I knew you were gonna do it, alright let's see if I can pay you off" when you ship over someone's raise, or if they flat and get squeezed, even if in theory you're like, hurting their EV (as if being super deep in position to them doesn't also hurt their EV lol) so to act like fish and whale never enjoy this dynamic seems ignorant at best.

Also 60bbs is more than enough to create meaningful pots for fish to enjoy in.
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Old 01-24-2019, 08:41 PM   #23033
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I guess I'm used to the LA no max games where, for the most part, it isn't always nuts vs near nuts when 200+bb each goes in.
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Old 01-24-2019, 08:55 PM   #23034
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Yeah, again, most of the time deeper is better, just saying people shouldn't treat it as gospel, and most certainly shouldn't make decisions around it based on ego, as I believe many do. There are a lot of variables.
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Old 01-25-2019, 01:13 AM   #23035
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Short stacking online has more incentive due to rakeback and lower rake in the actual games.

In live games it can work, too. Hint: straddle pots makes your 100bb stack into a 50bb stack, and if you haven't already sat with an equity calculator and figured out ranges for common spots to jam in straddle pots preflop, then you're doing it wrong.
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Old 01-25-2019, 03:30 AM   #23036
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Originally Posted by AllJackedUp View Post
In live games it can work, too. Hint: straddle pots makes your 100bb stack into a 50bb stack, and if you haven't already sat with an equity calculator and figured out ranges for common spots to jam in straddle pots preflop, then you're doing it wrong.
But a lot of live players don't think in terms of bb they think in terms of $. So they're not gonna stack off as light as they should cause the effective stacks are halved.
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Old 01-25-2019, 09:36 AM   #23037
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So I told myself I wouldnít ever post anything about bad beats, but here goes

So I started playing live poker Jan Ď18 with $50, and by sept I had turned that into $9.5k playing LAG, I had never had a losing month. Currently Iím up 9bb/hr all time at 1/2

I had a few changes and the money started to mean more, and havenít had a winning month since, Iím down 4k, Iíve took some sick beats lost effectively 2k flopped boat vs flopped quads. Iím basically just losing every large pot I play (last night I lost an 800 pot set over set)

Itís just never ending, obviously Iím making some huge mistakes. How the **** do I get out of this downward spiral?

Thanks for any advice, this is maddening.
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Old 01-25-2019, 09:57 AM   #23038
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Originally Posted by Dtrain555 View Post
So I told myself I wouldnít ever post anything about bad beats, but here goes

So I started playing live poker Jan Ď18 with $50, and by sept I had turned that into $9.5k playing LAG, I had never had a losing month. Currently Iím up 9bb/hr all time at 1/2

I had a few changes and the money started to mean more, and havenít had a winning month since, Iím down 4k, Iíve took some sick beats lost effectively 2k flopped boat vs flopped quads. Iím basically just losing every large pot I play (last night I lost an 800 pot set over set)

Itís just never ending, obviously Iím making some huge mistakes. How the **** do I get out of this downward spiral?

Thanks for any advice, this is maddening.
Chances are that you were running super hot at the beginning and now are running super cold. Frustration like you are having right now is the main reason Ive always kept track of All In EV.

When you get all in with AA vs KK and lose, its all you remember. You forget about the last 4 of those you won...and you are really right where you should be EV wise, but the only thing on your mind is the stupid big pot you lost as an 80% fav.

Yesterday I lost a $1300 pot all in with AK on a QT4J board. It sucks but a few days ago I won an all in with 55 vs 89 on a 567A board. I can tell you exactly how the equity of those hands came out overall.

All Ins are just one example of running hot or cold. There are many others but at least that one can be tracked.

My intuition tells me that if you have lost every month since Sept, you have some massive leaks that need to be addressed. IMO a good player shouldnt have more than 1-2 losing months per year (assuming your putting in 100+ hrs per month)
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Old 01-25-2019, 10:05 AM   #23039
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You don't go from $50 to $9,500 at 1/2 in 9 months without running hot (assuming you're not putting in 20+ hours/week)
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Old 01-25-2019, 12:53 PM   #23040
LordRiverRat
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtrain555 View Post
So I told myself I wouldnít ever post anything about bad beats, but here goes

So I started playing live poker Jan Ď18 with $50, and by sept I had turned that into $9.5k playing LAG, I had never had a losing month. Currently Iím up 9bb/hr all time at 1/2

I had a few changes and the money started to mean more, and havenít had a winning month since, Iím down 4k, Iíve took some sick beats lost effectively 2k flopped boat vs flopped quads. Iím basically just losing every large pot I play (last night I lost an 800 pot set over set)

Itís just never ending, obviously Iím making some huge mistakes. How the **** do I get out of this downward spiral?

Thanks for any advice, this is maddening.
Just from experience, this is huge. My recent trip to Vegas I was in my worst financial situation out of all my trips. My tilt threshold was definitely easier to break. Until I went on a monster heater.
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Old 01-25-2019, 01:28 PM   #23041
Dtrain555
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Maybe I’m making too much out of it, I only played 10 hrs/month from sept through December. And I’ve only won 1 of the 5 or 6 large pots I’ve played this month and if I was 50/50, I’d be having a really good month.

Im not denying that I ran great early and have leaks, both are true, it’s just frustrating to lose like this.
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Old 01-25-2019, 01:33 PM   #23042
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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
But a lot of live players don't think in terms of bb they think in terms of $. So they're not gonna stack off as light as they should cause the effective stacks are halved.
Excellent point that many players overlook.

On Bart Hanson's weekly call in show he will mention how the number of BB's changes in straddled pots and thus affects how the hand should play out. However, to your point, this is often times irrelevant because most players look at calling/raising/betting as a static amount of dollars. To this kind of player, one hundred dollars is no different in $1/2 than it is in $1/$2/$4.
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Old 01-25-2019, 02:18 PM   #23043
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Dtrain555 View Post
So I started playing live poker Jan Ď18 with $50, and by sept I had turned that into $9.5k playing LAG, I had never had a losing month. Currently Iím up 9bb/hr all time at 1/2

Iím down 4k
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtrain555 View Post
10 hrs/month from sept through December
You post isn't exactly clear regarding exactly what you're currently up / your exact winrate, but either way:

- looks like you've only played about 550 hours or so (is that correct?), so not a huge sample size; you're winning either way (either big or mediocre) so nothing wrong with that, but can't exactly have a lotta confidence with exactly what you're doing thanks to sample size
- sounds like you lost $4K over just 40 hours; very lol small sample size, but downswings happen (noting that all my biggest downswings have occurred in fairly short ~80 hour bursts); admittedly $4K is a pretty steep and ugly one for 1/2 NL, but if you're playing LAG then it's easier to do

GgoodluckG
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Old 01-25-2019, 03:18 PM   #23044
Dtrain555
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
You post isn't exactly clear regarding exactly what you're currently up / your exact winrate, but either way:

- looks like you've only played about 550 hours or so (is that correct?), so not a huge sample size; you're winning either way (either big or mediocre) so nothing wrong with that, but can't exactly have a lotta confidence with exactly what you're doing thanks to sample size
- sounds like you lost $4K over just 40 hours; very lol small sample size, but downswings happen (noting that all my biggest downswings have occurred in fairly short ~80 hour bursts); admittedly $4K is a pretty steep and ugly one for 1/2 NL, but if you're playing LAG then it's easier to do

GgoodluckG
So I just looked at it closer, since August Iím down 1800 at 2/5, 800 at tournaments, and 1100 at 1/2.

So really Iím only down 4 buyins at 2/5 and 5 buyins at 1/2.
Is that a normal downswing that I should expect?
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Old 01-25-2019, 03:51 PM   #23045
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^^^^

They all seem like perfectly normal/reasonable downswings to me.

But as I say, you have a fairly short sample size overall, so even though you're winning you really can't have any confidence in for how much. The better winning player you turn out to be, the more chance these downswings are just variance; the worse winning player you turn out to be, the more chance these downswings are just meh play.

GcluelessdownswingnoobG
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Old 01-25-2019, 05:53 PM   #23046
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Originally Posted by Gravity Well View Post
Excellent point that many players overlook.

On Bart Hanson's weekly call in show he will mention how the number of BB's changes in straddled pots and thus affects how the hand should play out. However, to your point, this is often times irrelevant because most players look at calling/raising/betting as a static amount of dollars. To this kind of player, one hundred dollars is no different in $1/2 than it is in $1/$2/$4.
Bart then often points out that most live players don't think about the number of BB's being halved in a straddle pot. Instead they base their stack-off threshold on dollar amount, not BB amount. This reinforces the point that was originally made here.
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Old 01-29-2019, 05:03 PM   #23047
gobbledygeek
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A Tale of 6 Giraffes!

Here are some giraffes! All from me in my 1/3 NL game to date!

Giraffe#1:

Here's me at the 2000:40 hour mark of my game. 9.44 bb/hr (SD = 59.78 bb/hr). Whooo, poker is sooooo easy!



Giraffe#2:

Here's me over the next 1307.15 hours in the same game. 3.97 bb/hr (SD = 47.15 bb/hr). WTF, pokr is hard now?



Giraffe#3:

Just so I don't lose my street cred, here's a little 1013:35 hour stretch within all of that. 12.79 bb/hr (SD = 61.21). 1000 hours tho, lol, amirite?



Giraffe#4:

Here's me after 1008:45 hours of my new Super Nit method (now BIing / topping off to 66bbs instead of 100bbs, and becoming way more tighter / passive, you know, weaktight like all the good poker books recommend). 6.16 bb/hr (SD = 45.15 bb/hr). Meh, considering I spent 1/5th of my time digging into / digging out of my tied-for-biggest downswing, not horrible, maybe. I'm not sold either way. Winning, hurray!



Giraffe#5:

Here's the yeah-but-what-have-you-done-lately 2018 giraffe. 7.12 bb/hr (SD = 46.48 bb/hr). But just 526:30 hours, so, lol, ignore, ldo.



Giraffe#6:

And finally the overall mess to date at 4316:40 hours. 7.02 bb/hr (SD = 53.39 bb/hr). 9 years in and not even halfway to expert # of hours but amazingly mediocre! Never had one lesson!



Gbutwhatdoesitallmean?G

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 01-29-2019 at 05:10 PM.
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Old 01-29-2019, 05:52 PM   #23048
3aces
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Thanks for sharing those. I am impressed with how well your doing and how serious you take poker by keeping track of your stats.
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Old 01-29-2019, 06:02 PM   #23049
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Yeah, nice giraffes. Sniffing at 100k this year. I wish I had started tracking sooner.
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Old 01-29-2019, 06:36 PM   #23050
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GG

The tighter you play, the more at the mercy you are of run good /run bad / distribution of the cards. Run into a few sets with your big pairs and good luck making back that 2-300BBs when you dont play very many hands or very many medium to big pots.

A good LAG has a lot less overall variance of win rate IMO and win rate is a lot less dependent on any one or any small group of hands. That is the main explanation for your fairly big difference in results over 1000 hour samples. My 1000 hour samples (or even 500 hour samples have win rates that dont vary anywhere near as much as yours and mine are getting better and better as I play better. Your results bounce around randomly and are mostly dependent on how many of your premiums get paid off or get cracked. You cant really play that much better if you mostly playing premiums and pocket pairs and not much else.

So while it seems to you need massive sample sizes to get an idea of win rate, I contend that playing styles can affect that greatly.
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