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Old 01-04-2019, 06:34 PM   #22951
DumbosTrunk
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bob_124 View Post
Which books?



Confirmed imo. I hope we get to play again sometime GG



+1



+1. Ideally he'd also be reading Anna Karenina (not War and Peace) and eating a Lucky Dog.
Assigned AK in 11th grade, expected to read 30+ pages per night. Umm...no thank you, I'll read the Cliff's Notes instead and still pass. Who assigns that tome to a bunch of high school juniors? I mean talk about great expectations.
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:35 PM   #22952
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
@Dumbo - it looks like you...

1. Sun runned

2. Had a break even stretch (possibly when you were posting some really bad hands)

3. Resumed sun running

The middle section is more likely closer to your EV than either of the poles. Pretty good example of variance being the primary driving force in poker.
Ever the vote of confidence....
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:48 PM   #22953
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
@Dumbo - it looks like you...

1. Sun runned

2. Had a break even stretch (possibly when you were posting some really bad hands)

3. Resumed sun running

The middle section is more likely closer to your EV than either of the poles. Pretty good example of variance being the primary driving force in poker.
I'm not so sure I'd go so far as "sun runned", as eyeballing things it looks like he ran at about $27/hr and $19/hr over those start/end periods. Yeah, of course lol sample size but still nothing anyone would consider outlandish $/hr-wise. Going on a $3.5K downswing in 1/3 NL might be a little concern (at least for those who aren't super lags).

Dumbo, what does your giraffe look like without including 2/5 NL and PLO? I'm assuming those games are far more swingy and could have much bigger affect on things, so I simply wouldn't include those results in a 1/3 NL giraffe.

You're winning so don't be too hard on yourself and gogogo, imo.

Gandlolatbob'sinsidejokere:luckydogs,youarenowmymo rtalenemy!G
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:57 PM   #22954
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I'm not so sure I'd go so far as "sun runned", as eyeballing things it looks like he ran at about $27/hr and $19/hr over those start/end periods. Yeah, of course lol sample size but still nothing anyone would consider outlandish $/hr-wise. Going on a $3.5K downswing in 1/3 NL might be a little concern (at least for those who aren't super lags).

Dumbo, what does your giraffe look like without including 2/5 NL and PLO? I'm assuming those games are far more swingy and could have much bigger affect on things, so I simply wouldn't include those results in a 1/3 NL giraffe.

You're winning so don't be too hard on yourself and gogogo, imo.

Gandlolatbob'sinsidejokere:luckydogs,youarenowmymo rtalenemy!G
Stupid Poker Income has a glitch that won't let me activate filters.

All I know is my 2/5 results skew my NL results up ($90/hr. over 20 hours) and my PLO results skew them down (-$21/hr. over 51 hours). 1/3 is $11/hr. over 710 hours.
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Old 01-04-2019, 07:05 PM   #22955
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
Ever the vote of confidence....
The middle portion is what happens when you play in semi deep and aggressive games which exponentially increases your variance. You're not fading villain's outs every time they are on a draw like you used to. You're not binking your 12 outers like you used to. You're running KK into AA. You're losing your flips 80% of the time. You're getting TPTK in vs. TPNK and he's sucking out on the river.

You probably ran below EV during that middle portion and compounded it with some poor play. The unfortunate thing about poker is you can "run" like you did in the middle for very very long periods of time.
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Old 01-04-2019, 07:21 PM   #22956
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Bodybuilder, you make it sound like it's our responsibility to deviate from what we think is the most +EV way to play poker just for the "good of the game" or for the sake of "giving something back" to the fish. It's not. And we don't owe fish anything.
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Old 01-04-2019, 08:35 PM   #22957
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Actually there is ev of a hand and ev of a session and ev of a life. There is more that goes into the ev of a session than hand equities. People learning ev of a hand and believing it is a vacuum is one of the worst things to happen to educated players in terms of slowing down their progress in poker.

It is quite possible to take -ev plays in a single hand that are actually +ev for a session. Not talking about for image purposes. But for the flow of money.

Not saying anyone should really do these things. Just gg it up and print. But there are certainly times for -ev decisions for the sake of the ev of the session.
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Old 01-04-2019, 08:38 PM   #22958
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
The middle portion is what happens when you play in semi deep and aggressive games which exponentially increases your variance. You're not fading villain's outs every time they are on a draw like you used to. You're not binking your 12 outers like you used to. You're running KK into AA. You're losing your flips 80% of the time. You're getting TPTK in vs. TPNK and he's sucking out on the river.

You probably ran below EV during that middle portion and compounded it with some poor play. The unfortunate thing about poker is you can "run" like you did in the middle for very very long periods of time.
I agree with you there. I don't gainsay my period of play bad (an unfortunate byproduct of runbad). I just think I am playing much more solid poker now than I used to, plus running at or above EV doesn't hurt. Thanks for elaborating.
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Old 01-04-2019, 08:47 PM   #22959
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Actually there is ev of a hand and ev of a session and ev of a life. There is more that goes into the ev of a session than hand equities. People learning ev of a hand and believing it is a vacuum is one of the worst things to happen to educated players in terms of slowing down their progress in poker.

It is quite possible to take -ev plays in a single hand that are actually +ev for a session. Not talking about for image purposes. But for the flow of money.

Not saying anyone should really do these things. Just gg it up and print. But there are certainly times for -ev decisions for the sake of the ev of the session.


I agree with this too but mainly in a sense that is partly about image purposes. As an inner nit, part of me hates being caught bluffing both because I still feel a bit embarrassed in a weird way and also because no matter how many years I play the game for, I still can’t shake my ‘session by session p&l mindset’ while I’m playing.

It’s definitely one of the biggest flaws in my mental game. But given I’m a nit and play against a lot of pros and regs in a small player pool I console myself with the (mainly truthful) POV that unsuccessful and often bad bluffs are actually great for my p&l over the long term because they get my value hands paid more often
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Old 01-04-2019, 11:18 PM   #22960
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Re: Down swings

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Originally Posted by jelloman View Post
Starting to get frustrated about this downswing. Yes, Im occasionally playing bad, but mostly I'm just card dead. I'm a rec player and I track my hours/results.



Looks like I'm on a 40+ hour span of catching nothing. Few starting hands, missing every flop and the occasional bad beat have cost me over the last month. 40 hours is about 10% of my annual hours . Is this a normal downswing or do I just suck at poker ?


I remember a 30 hour period in where I was never dealt kk+ preflop.

40 hours is really tiny for live poker
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Old 01-05-2019, 12:10 AM   #22961
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
"Giving action" is just a stupid term that I hate with a passion, because I believe that my goal as a professional is to make the best decisions I can, and I don't owe anyone any "loose action."

That being said, I believe that in most cases the highest EV lines involve being selective but agressive pre-flop, and using overbets post-flop in certain situations. No one generally thinks I'm a nit unless I go card-dead for 4 hours (which does happen).
What if I make a bad bet with you so you make a worse bet with me?

Example:
Were gonna bet on coin flips. We are going to have two bets.
Bet 1:
I win $10 for every Heads.. and I pay you $20 for Every Tails.

Bet 2:
You win $10 every time you hit two heads in a row...I win $20 every time you don't!

In bet 1, every 8 Flips the math says you should be down $40.
In bet 2, every 8 flips the math says you would be up $50.

You are profiting by making a losing bet to convince to make your opponent make a worse losing bet.

Also known as...giving action.
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Old 01-05-2019, 12:23 AM   #22962
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
Stupid Poker Income has a glitch that won't let me activate filters.

All I know is my 2/5 results skew my NL results up ($90/hr. over 20 hours) and my PLO results skew them down (-$21/hr. over 51 hours). 1/3 is $11/hr. over 710 hours.
You have to go to the Overview Tab and the filter is on that page. It is a pain in the A to find it...I used to struggle all the time.
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Old 01-05-2019, 12:25 AM   #22963
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Unless you are playing HU, poker is not a two person game.

Players who are bad enough to make awful plays all the time will almost always do so without you making -EV plays in return that cost you money vs the rest of the table. There are other ways to make the game better that don't involve burning EV in hands. I'm willing to do small flips and random crap like that, but if you are asking me to intentionally make -EV plays to "make the game better," sorry, that just doesn't benefit me.
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Old 01-05-2019, 12:39 AM   #22964
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Which books?
Non-fiction. I like science and philosophy.
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Old 01-05-2019, 01:57 AM   #22965
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Non-fiction. I like science and philosophy.


SABR reading list plz
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Old 01-05-2019, 02:24 AM   #22966
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Re: Down swings

Quote:
Originally Posted by jelloman View Post
Starting to get frustrated about this downswing. Yes, Im occasionally playing bad, but mostly I'm just card dead. I'm a rec player and I track my hours/results.



Looks like I'm on a 40+ hour span of catching nothing. Few starting hands, missing every flop and the occasional bad beat have cost me over the last month. 40 hours is about 10% of my annual hours . Is this a normal downswing or do I just suck at poker ?


Haven't flopped a set in approx 20 hours. Last set I flopped, GII OTT, dude rivers a higher set. Before that the last set i flopped was like 20 hours ago

My current session that I'm in, about 8 hours and counting, over 30 pocket pairs, not 1 set flopped, every flop has had an at least 1 overcard to my PP except the 1 AA I've gotten

In other words, it can always get worse....
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Old 01-05-2019, 12:53 PM   #22967
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I appreciate these replies. Believe me,I feel your pain. I need to guard against changing up my play due to recent beats and bad luck. When you get your opponent all in with your AA vs his KK and he spikes a K, you don't want to play it any differently next time, just move on. It happens.

I also made a couple of bad moves during this downswing that I usually wouldn't do, because I became a little gun-shy. I allowed villians to catch up by becoming too passive in some cases.

Wasn't thrilled to read that run-bad can continue for a lot longer than I've experienced, but I'll continue to read, improve and play until I get thru it.

I haven't had a losing year since I started record keeping, but a couple of bad months can really affect your confidence. I'll chalk this up to another lesson learned.
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Old 01-05-2019, 02:31 PM   #22968
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hello,

I could not find a similar thread for live MTTs and SNGs. So I will ask here to set some SMART goals for my live MTT's the next 6 month.

How much of an IRR can a good above average (not a pro) in MTTs with a buyin between 100-1000$ and fields between 10-60 players expect?

Most of the tourneys are one day events between 5-10 hours. I would call them turbos in comparison to online tournaments to the number of hands you see per level. The Competition consists of good, average, bad and gambling recreational players. Basically no live tournament professional players participate in these tourneys.

thanks
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Old 01-05-2019, 02:38 PM   #22969
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm very confident that I'm down over $100K lifetime in all-in equity. LOL at anyone who thinks poker is a fair game.
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Old 01-05-2019, 02:41 PM   #22970
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
SABR reading list plz
Currently re-reading "The Selfish Gene" and "The Extended Phenotype - the Long Reach of the Gene" by Richard Dawkins.

Recently read "A Universe from Nothing - Why Is There Something Rather Than Nothing" by Lawrence Krauss.
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Old 01-11-2019, 01:13 PM   #22971
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
I play primarily $5/10/20, with some $5/10, $10/20, and $10/20/40 mixed in. Player pools aren't very big.

Anyone opening A9o in MP is going to get murdered long-term. Maybe that wasn't the example you wanted to use.
What? You play 10/20nl and read a book while playing? Yikes man, I assumed you were just a low stakes player. That's just so bad to do in a small player pool game like 10/20+ (even 5/10). It's way worse than having headphones (especially one ear bud) on. There's so many things doing that projects out to the action players that is bad for the game: (1) anti-social and self absorbed, (2) that you're just there to grind for a living and print, (3) that you are gonna be playing nitty/tight, (4) gets you less action from certain fish, (5) can make looser players potentially tighten up/add on to serious, quiet, competitive vibe instead of social, fun, non-competitive vibe, etc.

It's amazing how "smart" poker pros can still be so short sighted/narrow minded. I would suggest re-considering that behavior and really examine how much that hurts your long term EV. Not to mention the other players you play with. If you did that in my player pool at 10/20, not only would you get a ton of **** from a few of the good regs, but the action players would speak up as well. In many areas, that can lead to some real issues for you such as getting shut out of games, etc.

Surprised none of that has already happened. But that would make sense if your'e in Vegas I guess (no idea if you are, but seems most likely). Sorry, but your'e just not self aware enough to realize these things apparently - but they are absolutely true.
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Old 01-11-2019, 01:50 PM   #22972
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gokou. View Post
Hello,

I could not find a similar thread for live MTTs and SNGs. So I will ask here to set some SMART goals for my live MTT's the next 6 month.

How much of an IRR can a good above average (not a pro) in MTTs with a buyin between 100-1000$ and fields between 10-60 players expect?

Most of the tourneys are one day events between 5-10 hours. I would call them turbos in comparison to online tournaments to the number of hands you see per level. The Competition consists of good, average, bad and gambling recreational players. Basically no live tournament professional players participate in these tourneys.

thanks
There is good reason why no pro tourney grinders play these games and I think having any expectation wrt ROI would be pie in the sky in the type of tourney you are describing. The variance is such that you could play fantastic and not cash for a LONG time. The rake is usually so bad it makes beating these games for any significant amount very unlikely. Play them if you like, but know that it's really just to play some cards and gamble and will never be a steady, long term source of significant income.

GL!
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Old 01-11-2019, 02:10 PM   #22973
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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What? You play 10/20nl and read a book while playing? Yikes man, I assumed you were just a low stakes player.
Yes, you make quite a lot of assumptions that are false.

The majority of the time I don't read while playing. I read when waiting for a game, or when trying to put extra hours in a bad game, such as when some actual nits don't want to straddle.
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Old 01-11-2019, 06:05 PM   #22974
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
I don't find that it changes much.

The recs at higher stakes know they are fish, as they are usually fairly wealthy and not stupid. They aren't going to play you differently based on you having a book.

I'm not reading 100% of the time (it's probably like 30-40%) and certainly don't do it as a way to ignore other people, but it comes in handy at certain times.


Going off ^^^^ figure you gave. As well as your other posts defending reading at the table (not when waiting for a game) saying it’s not as bad as headphones and how rich fish don’t care about things like that


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Old 01-12-2019, 07:46 PM   #22975
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

First post. Here are my lifetime results
Live Cash Games
NLH
Hours played 7996
Net +301312
PLO
Hours played 476
Net +14911
Stud H
Hours played 149
Net -43547

Stake sizes:
1/2
Hours 39
Net -334
1/3
Hours 4
Net -16
2/5
Hours 4583
Net +200256
5/10
Hours 3595
Net +140723
10/20
Hours 52
Net +9006
10/25
Hours 48
Net -33706
20/40
Hours 17
Net -1003
25/50
Hours 2
Net -2128
75/150
Hours 128
Net -44384
150/300
Hours 3
Net +643

Day of the week:
Monday
Hours 1064
Net +45751
Tuesday
Hours 2199
Net +61114
Wednesday
Hours 1455
Net +77090
Thursday
Hours 1214
Net +17670
Friday
Hours 1306
Net +42287
Saturday
Hours 1394
Net +20928
Sunday
Hours 822
Net +3351

Location:
Aria vegas
Hours 6
Net +2728
Bellagio vegas
Hours 2
Net -419
Borgata Atlantic city
Hours 205
Net -3322
Chasers NH
Hours 195
Net +16774
Foxwoods
Hours 6265
Net +221065
Grosvenor London
Hours 11
Net -1636 pounds
Hampton Falls
Hours 2
Net -473
Harrahs Atlantic City
Hours 12.5
Net +684
Holland Casino
Hours 1
Net -750 euros
Home games
Hours 11
Net -85
Jack Cleveland
Hours 2
Net -8
MGM Springfield
Hours 26
Net -1955
Mohegan Sun CT
Hours 1730
Net +41056
Nashua Poker
Hours 6.5
Net +239
Parx PA
Hours 4
Net +770
Rio vegas
Hours 28
Net -2129
Rockingham NH
Hours 9
Net -489
Seabrook NH
Hours 1
Net +47
Twin River RI
Hours 117
Net +3308
Winstar OK
Hours 1
Net -125
Wynn vegas
Hours 24
Net -8681

2012
Hours 162
Net -837
2013
Hours 1650
Net +84806
2014
Hours 1659
Net *****39
2015
Hours 1093
Net +757
2016
Hours 1220
Net -2143
2017
Hours 1140
Net +39219
2018
Hours 1665
Net +43873
2019
Hours 75
Net +4331

Overall
Hours 8664
Net +268461

Updated 11/11/12 to 1/12/2019 17:32 EST
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