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Old 01-02-2019, 02:23 PM   #22851
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by paratrooper99 View Post
I lost my BR and would prefer not to get a job to get a starting roll. I played a 8 hour session at my local B&R and played 4/8 limit holdem. The game was so easy to beat. Even the tight regs were afraid of any scare cards and refused to get thin value because they have no idea how to hand read. Of course, the rake was ridiculous and would be the only issue. The house takes 10% up to $5 plus $2 for promos. Does anyone have enough hours to show a reliable winrate with these conditions?
I eeked out $7.09/hr over 466 hours of live 4/8 limit about a decade ago, but my game was a kill game (every tenth hand is a 8/16 game which helps outrun rake), plus the rake was only $3 maximum with only a $1 BBJ drop.

Highly doubt a non-kill 4/8 limit game with $5 rake / $2 drop is beatable, or at the very least for anything remotely comparable to what you could beat 1/2 NL for.

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Old 01-02-2019, 04:20 PM   #22852
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
Everyone talks about weekend weekend weekend but just about everywhere except Vegas my experience has been that weekday games are actually better and all the weekend warrior nit grinders infest the games all weekend.
I play in small player pool. Almost zero good players during week. But the solid Tags come and fill seats on weekends. I much prefer playing bankers hours too.
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Old 01-02-2019, 04:39 PM   #22853
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by mikko View Post
I play in small player pool. Almost zero good players during week. But the solid Tags come and fill seats on weekends. I much prefer playing bankers hours too.
+1. M/T/W are three of my best days. For some reason I take a hit on Thursdays (burnout?), and Fridays and Saturdays are much less impressive.
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Old 01-02-2019, 04:50 PM   #22854
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Here's my latest 1/3 NL day-by-day results. In my opinion the differences are all just lol sample noise as I don't believe my games play any different at any time (although admittedly I'm ~never at the table after 9:30pm). I don't think it's any coincidence that the winrates starts converging to my overall winrate of ~$21 the more the hours increase.

Day / winrate / hours

Monday $16.37 420
Tuesday $23.76 411
Wednesday $13.42 277
Thursday $28.34 429
Friday $18.81 439
Saturday $20.94 878
Sunday $21.28 1417

GcluelessdayoftheweeknoobG
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Old 01-02-2019, 06:19 PM   #22855
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
In my opinion the differences are all just lol sample noise as I don't believe my games play any different at any time (although admittedly I'm ~never at the table after 9:30pm).
GcluelessdayoftheweeknoobG
Actually at my normal rooms, time of day may be more statistically significant than day of the week IMO. Even on the weekends I find that most of the fish have been caught by 1 or 2 AM and the games get noticeably tougher as the number of tables decrease in general. That's not to say you cant find a drunk guy who's running good late, It's just less likely they'll still have chips the later it gets. Neither of my tracking apps have filters for time of day. Heavy tourist areas like Vegas may not see as much turnover in player type weekdays to weekends and afternoon vs evenings. Just thinking out loud.
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Old 01-02-2019, 06:49 PM   #22856
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

When I enter my session, I enter them in 4 categories. If I was playing Bellagio, I would enter it as 4 different rooms depending on the day and time of day.
Bellagio 1 for weekday daytime
Bellagio 2 for weekday evening (session starts at 6PM or later)
Bellagio 3 for weekend daytime
Bellagio 4 for weekend evening

That way I can easily sort for what I call "peak" times or "non peak" times. Peak times are 2, 3 and 4.

My win rate is 26% higher at peak times than non peak times over a pretty large sample and Ive never played past midnight a single time during that sample. My guess is that games after midnight are even better.

As far as days of the week, it seems to be more random and room dependent. My best day is Sunday by a significant margin. My worst day is Saturday but its not that far behind the other days which are pretty close to each other.
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Old 01-02-2019, 06:56 PM   #22857
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
When I enter my session, I enter them in 4 categories. If I was playing Bellagio, I would enter it as 4 different rooms depending on the day and time of day.
Bellagio 1 for weekday daytime
Bellagio 2 for weekday evening (session starts at 6PM or later)
Bellagio 3 for weekend daytime
Bellagio 4 for weekend evening

That way I can easily sort for what I call "peak" times or "non peak" times. Peak times are 2, 3 and 4.

My win rate is 26% higher at peak times than non peak times over a pretty large sample and Ive never played past midnight a single time during that sample. My guess is that games after midnight are even better.

As far as days of the week, it seems to be more random and room dependent. My best day is Sunday by a significant margin. My worst day is Saturday but its not that far behind the other days which are pretty close to each other.
Good idea. I wish I had done this from the start. Back, editing hundreds of entries after the fact has a very low probability of getting done. I may start using this for 2019 though as I haven't played yet this year. Thanks.
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Old 01-02-2019, 07:05 PM   #22858
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
When I enter my session, I enter them in 4 categories. If I was playing Bellagio, I would enter it as 4 different rooms depending on the day and time of day.
Bellagio 1 for weekday daytime
Bellagio 2 for weekday evening (session starts at 6PM or later)
Bellagio 3 for weekend daytime
Bellagio 4 for weekend evening

That way I can easily sort for what I call "peak" times or "non peak" times. Peak times are 2, 3 and 4.

My win rate is 26% higher at peak times than non peak times over a pretty large sample and Ive never played past midnight a single time during that sample. My guess is that games after midnight are even better.

As far as days of the week, it seems to be more random and room dependent. My best day is Sunday by a significant margin. My worst day is Saturday but its not that far behind the other days which are pretty close to each other.
How do you handle sessions which span categories, especially going across 6:00pm (which for me would be ~99% of my sessions)?

GcluelessstatstrackingnoobG
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Old 01-02-2019, 07:17 PM   #22859
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
Everyone talks about weekend weekend weekend but just about everywhere except Vegas my experience has been that weekday games are actually better and all the weekend warrior nit grinders infest the games all weekend.


At my room the 12-6pm 2/5/10 often only has 2 or 3 pros/decent regs whereas the evening and weekend games often have 7
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Old 01-02-2019, 07:32 PM   #22860
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
How do you handle sessions which span categories, especially going across 6:00pm (which for me would be ~99% of my sessions)?

GcluelessstatstrackingnoobG
That almost never happens for me. Most of my sessions start between 10am-noon and end between 4pm-6pm.

When I play in the evening its almost always on a day where I had other stuff to do during the day and started a session after dinner.

The few times that Ive had a session that started during the day and went past 6pm, if I planned to play more than 1 hour past 6pm, I just ended the session and started a new one at 6PM.
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Old 01-02-2019, 07:38 PM   #22861
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
That almost never happens for me. Most of my sessions start between 10am-noon and end between 4pm-6pm.

When I play in the evening its almost always on a day where I had other stuff to do during the day and started a session after dinner.

The few times that Ive had a session that started during the day and went past 6pm, if I planned to play more than 1 hour past 6pm, I just ended the session and started a new one at 6PM.
Mike are you a pro?

I find the day games at my home casino to be much better during the day than at night. I usually never play past 8 unless I’m in Vegas
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Old 01-02-2019, 08:03 PM   #22862
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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^^^^^^ That's a solid year, well done. How do you track your VPIP?
Ty, Happy 2019!

I track VPIP/PFR manually. Pretty easy.
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Old 01-03-2019, 01:21 AM   #22863
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikko View Post
I play in small player pool. Almost zero good players during week. But the solid Tags come and fill seats on weekends. I much prefer playing bankers hours too.
I usually only put in one or two session in a week. My normal is Thursday from 3-9pm, and it’s crazy. There’s never as many tables running during the week, but the player pool seems more favorable overall than on the weekends.
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Old 01-03-2019, 04:39 AM   #22864
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Nice results as always GG, although I don't know how you don't get super bored being a super nit.

Interestingly, I filtered my weekend vs weekday results and this is what I found.

Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays
Winnings: $11380
Hours: 697
Hourly: $16.33/hr

Mondays to Thursdays
Winnings: $18600
Hours: 786.5
Hourly: $23.65/hr

Below 1000 hours in each group so probably not statistically significant. But I can see how less grinders during the week can actually make certain weekend games worse (especially with poor seat and table selection). However this is 90% 1/2 and 1/3 and it makes sense at those stakes cause it's near impossible to grind those stakes long term for a living. At 2/5 and above I would imagine there would be MORE grinders during the week because it's their job for a much higher % of the player pool.
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Old 01-03-2019, 08:35 AM   #22865
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

GG, have you found you enjoy the game any more or less since switching to your uber nit strategy?
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Old 01-03-2019, 10:12 AM   #22866
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
As far as days of the week, it seems to be more random and room dependent. My best day is Sunday by a significant margin. My worst day is Saturday but its not that far behind the other days which are pretty close to each other.
I used to play every Sunday from 11a-5p. Not a lot of traffic, but I'd play mostly 1/2 against OMCs and a couple of recs running on 3-4 hours sleep looking to play a little more poker before heading home. The play was so straight forward...raise limpers in LP and take down dead money, open almost ATC when folded to me in LP, squeeze when favorable, then bank on an extremely high c-bet success rate. I had a couple of years where Sunday was a consistent ~$8/hr better win rate with very low variance.
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Old 01-03-2019, 10:16 AM   #22867
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

my year was meh. capped it off with losing 3k in the last week of the year.

1/2: 16 sessions, 21.28 hours, $1,107

1.33 hrs/session, $69.19/session, $52.02/hr, 26.01bb/hr

1/3: 43 sessions, 166.55 hours, $4,901

3.87 hrs/session, $113.98/session, $29.43/hr, 9.81bb/hr

2/5: 30 sessions, 148.40 hours, ($3,542)

4.95 hrs/session, $118.07/session, ($23.87/hr), 4.77bb/hr

Overall: 89 sessions, 336.23 hours, $2,466

3.78 hrs/session, $27.71/session, $7.33/hr. overall 4.4bb/hr

---------

typically i would only play 1/2 while waiting for 1/3 or 2/5, which is why the hours/session are so low.

the plus sides for the year were:
- hit my goal of 250 hours.
- pretty happy with my 1/3 play. i feel confident when i'm at the table and rarely feel like i'm put in tough situations.
- it was a profitable year.

the cons were:
- idk what is going on at 2/5. the players have such glaring leaks but i feel like i am card dead every time i play. eventually that turns into me spewing my stack off in an obviously bad situation. definitely something to work on when i play more 2/5
- due to life factors, my BR is pretty minimal, so i'm not even sure when i'll play 2/5 again.
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Old 01-03-2019, 10:30 AM   #22868
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^ JOTS, Sugar 2/5 just isn't that good imo. There are Friday and Saturday nights where there is 1 freaking table going. In my experience while the game can play deep you've got a lot of decent TAGs on the table and it kind of leaves you at the whims of variance. There are always spots but I felt the same as you just couldn't get in profitable situations with them. I started mixing in Sands which probably isn't feasible for you but the action is much better and table selection is better. And ofc Parx. Do you ever play there?
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Old 01-03-2019, 10:40 AM   #22869
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^ JOTS, Sugar 2/5 just isn't that good imo. There are Friday and Saturday nights where there is 1 freaking table going. In my experience while the game can play deep you've got a lot of decent TAGs on the table and it kind of leaves you at the whims of variance. There are always spots but I felt the same as you just couldn't get in profitable situations with them. I started mixing in Sands which probably isn't feasible for you but the action is much better and table selection is better. And ofc Parx. Do you ever play there?
yeah, i've kinda felt like that too about the SH 2/5. i've been playing less 2/5 there as the year went on. i'm about 80/20 SH/Parx. Sands is pretty much impossible for me right now. trying to get Borgata back into a regular mix cause i can take the family (is it weird that my 5 y/o consistently asks to go to a casino?), but thats all dependent on comped rooms.

on the other hand, the 1/3 at SH is typically very good and is typically comparable in number of tables as Parx, which is why i continue to go there.

have you gotten back to Parx? i haven't seen you at SH in a little while.
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Old 01-03-2019, 11:23 AM   #22870
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If any Sugarhouse players want to chat hands or meta sometime, feel free to reach out.
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Old 01-03-2019, 12:05 PM   #22871
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GG, have you found you enjoy the game any more or less since switching to your uber nit strategy?
I think I find solace / satisfaction in taking a very long term see-if-my-method-works approach to the game and find a lot of the enjoyment is simply seeing my lifetime graph continually move upwards (which is something very few players in my room can say). So I find it satisfying that my Super Nit strategy at almost 1000 hours has so far improved my winrate by 50% over the one I produced the previous 1300 hours over an ever increasing rake (although admittedly lags way behind the one I produced over my first 2000 hours, but conditions are different, imo).

So overall I find the game slightly more enjoyable since I know it's producing slightly better results than before, but the time at the table I find pretty much the same enjoyment-wise (a night out, some laughs, playing cards, this is hardly a bad time).

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 01-03-2019, 02:13 PM   #22872
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
Nice results as always GG, although I don't know how you don't get super bored being a super nit.

Interestingly, I filtered my weekend vs weekday results and this is what I found.

Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays
Winnings: $11380
Hours: 697
Hourly: $16.33/hr

Mondays to Thursdays
Winnings: $18600
Hours: 786.5
Hourly: $23.65/hr

Below 1000 hours in each group so probably not statistically significant. But I can see how less grinders during the week can actually make certain weekend games worse (especially with poor seat and table selection). However this is 90% 1/2 and 1/3 and it makes sense at those stakes cause it's near impossible to grind those stakes long term for a living. At 2/5 and above I would imagine there would be MORE grinders during the week because it's their job for a much higher % of the player pool.
I can't filter for specific days in my app, so take what I say with a grain of salt and realize that I'm going by intuition.

The Friday and Saturday night games that I experience tend to be much looser and more crazy. There are more of the "someone raised 10x pre and got six callers." So, SPR can get ridiculous in multi way pots and the swings get bigger.

These games are probably more profitable long term (as if "long term" exists in this context), but they are also going to have more variance both positive and negative.

Basically, I'm saying that Friday and Saturday night games will be more swingy and you may just be running bad.
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Old 01-03-2019, 02:45 PM   #22873
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^ I had a losing Friday AND Saturday in 2017 playing full-time hours and had a solid year. 200 BB cap 2/5. Most questions about what/why can be answered with one word: variance. It plays a much bigger role than most people care to admit.
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Old 01-03-2019, 03:24 PM   #22874
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....and if you're under rolled, you should probably steer clear of those games.
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Old 01-03-2019, 03:24 PM   #22875
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

JOTS (i like this abbrev fwiw)

There's gonna be alot at play, noteably your small sample. I've got several multi-hundred hour breakeven stretches.

BUT

1/3 is very often a "better" game than 2/5. Alot of people at 2/5 buy in effectively shorter (many min-50bb buy ins at 2/5, some 100bb, and no +100bb). At 1/3 people often sit with 100bb and sometimes even 150bb if the table max is $500.

For this and other reasons stacks get much deeper much faster at 1/3. I've personally played very little of it but its one of the best variants offered in terms of bb/hr potential imo
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