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Old 12-29-2018, 06:43 PM   #22801
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Only the 1/3 is statistically significant so far. I need your Standard Deviation for it to run the numbers though. Or you can.

It's 2*(standard deviation per hour in BBs)/square root of hours played

This gives you the + or - addition and subtraction from your observed on what your true winrate likely (95%) actually is.

So for you, if your SDev at 1/3 is the same as your overall one of 90BB/hr, it is
2*90/26.306, or 180/26.306, or +/- 6.84BBs hr

So with your observed winrate of 3.07BBs hr, your true winrate is (assuming this SDev is correct) 95% likely to be somewhere between negative 3.77BB/hr and positive 9.91BBs/hr.

Redo with your actual 1/3 SDev to get actual results. As you can see, the bounds are pretty big still.
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Old 12-29-2018, 06:55 PM   #22802
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Only the 1/3 is statistically significant so far. I need your Standard Deviation for it to run the numbers though. Or you can.

It's 2*(standard deviation per hour in BBs)/square root of hours played

This gives you the + or - addition and subtraction from your observed on what your true winrate likely (95%) actually is.

So for you, if your SDev at 1/3 is the same as your overall one of 90BB/hr, it is
2*90/26.306, or 180/26.306, or +/- 6.84BBs hr

So with your observed winrate of 3.07BBs hr, your true winrate is (assuming this SDev is correct) 95% likely to be somewhere between negative 3.77BB/hr and positive 9.91BBs/hr.

Redo with your actual 1/3 SDev to get actual results. As you can see, the bounds are pretty big still.
Thanks again. I don't think I have the std. dev. for individual games available on the app I use, Poker Income - only the overall std. dev. And I can't turn filters on (even for the $5 it costs, which I'm willing to pay) due to a glitch in the app.

I may try removing the outlier sessions and recalculating all this manually. I suspect 2/5 and PLO are throwing my 1/3 results for a loop.

Last edited by DumbosTrunk; 12-29-2018 at 07:02 PM.
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Old 12-30-2018, 05:24 AM   #22803
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
I'm being pretty honest with myself that I didn't play my best in October and got spewy at times due to tilt-inducing runbad. And the games in Vegas were tougher and I really got crushed in PLO.

Not really trying to explain away, just being real.
Are we talking about 1/3? Where are you from having softer 1/3 games? Not saying Vegas 1/3 games are softest in the country but it's pretty easy to figure out who the nits grinding their tier credits are and who the tourists who came to spew money are. And I've hardly seen any grinders in my current trip. The rising rake/cost of living is probably making grinding 1/3 very unappealing.
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Old 12-30-2018, 12:00 PM   #22804
Homey D. Clown
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yesterday I completed my last session of 2018, so let's post some results, because I'm in a braggy mood... I logged 566 cashgame hours this year. My goal was to try and put in 10 hours per week (two sessions), so I'm happy to have reached that target.

Total hours: 566.25
Total profit: 34,140
Winrate: 60/hr


According to my app this averages out to 16bb/hr. I mostly play 2/4, with some 5/5 and 2/2 mixed in, depending on which games are available.

Results per stake (stake/total profit/profit per hour/number of hours played):


As you can see, that 16bb/hr is pretty heavily skewed by obviously running extremely hot for 77 hours at 2/2. Even though 2/2 is wayyy softer than 2/4 and 5/5, I think it's safe to say that a €77/hr winrate is not sustainable...

Unfortunately I also like to play some MTT poker from time to time. 2017 was a good year for me, but in 2018 I only managed to cash 1 time out of 17 tourneys, which cost me about 5k total.

But all in all this was a very good year. Although I'm definitely one of the better players at my tables, I don't think I'm some sort of poker wizard by any means. I feel I have been playing well this year and last year (I've improved a lot over the last few years, for which I credit this forum in particular!), but I'm also well aware that I'm still making a lot of mistakes. I'm actually sort of waiting to run into a brick wall, but as long as I'm doing well, I'm enjoying it.

For the heck of it I'll post my graph of 2017/2018, because it adds up to roughly 1000 hours (1014 to be exact) and my 2017 winrate was not that different (50/hr) from this year's.

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Old 12-30-2018, 05:03 PM   #22805
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Homey D. Clown View Post
Yesterday I completed my last session of 2018, so let's post some results, because I'm in a braggy mood... I logged 566 cashgame hours this year. My goal was to try and put in 10 hours per week (two sessions), so I'm happy to have reached that target.

Total hours: 566.25
Total profit: 34,140
Winrate: 60/hr


According to my app this averages out to 16bb/hr. I mostly play 2/4, with some 5/5 and 2/2 mixed in, depending on which games are available.

Results per stake (stake/total profit/profit per hour/number of hours played):


As you can see, that 16bb/hr is pretty heavily skewed by obviously running extremely hot for 77 hours at 2/2. Even though 2/2 is wayyy softer than 2/4 and 5/5, I think it's safe to say that a €77/hr winrate is not sustainable...

Unfortunately I also like to play some MTT poker from time to time. 2017 was a good year for me, but in 2018 I only managed to cash 1 time out of 17 tourneys, which cost me about 5k total.

But all in all this was a very good year. Although I'm definitely one of the better players at my tables, I don't think I'm some sort of poker wizard by any means. I feel I have been playing well this year and last year (I've improved a lot over the last few years, for which I credit this forum in particular!), but I'm also well aware that I'm still making a lot of mistakes. I'm actually sort of waiting to run into a brick wall, but as long as I'm doing well, I'm enjoying it.

For the heck of it I'll post my graph of 2017/2018, because it adds up to roughly 1000 hours (1014 to be exact) and my 2017 winrate was not that different (50/hr) from this year's.

Nice job sir! Congrats
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Old 12-30-2018, 05:57 PM   #22806
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Nice job Homey.

Pretty crazy that you and I both posted approx $60ph results and also 1/17 mtt entries!
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Old 12-30-2018, 06:26 PM   #22807
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

welp my year was lol-tastic but i’ll participate because it’s not *that* embarrassing







top venues, plus 83 hours at MGM NH for -$31



must be nice to win at 1/3
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Old 12-30-2018, 06:57 PM   #22808
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I don't understand what's embarrassing at all about those results
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Old 12-30-2018, 11:41 PM   #22809
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I agree...solid results Homer.

I managed to get in one more 2/5 session for 2018, and I can officially put this one in the books. Quick 4 hour session up $780 to add to the year's results before the fish tank dried up, but I'll take it.

My December run-good kept up...I managed to luckbox my table selection against a streak of the worst players possible this month and come out on the good end of my 60/40 and 70/30 spots. It almost feels unreal to run +EV for multiple consecutive sessions.
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Old 12-30-2018, 11:55 PM   #22810
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sensimuse View Post
I'd say on average the 5/5+ at Commerce incites enough action and deep stacks to handily overcome the drop. I see it as an action tax

I don't have any experience with Bay Area casinos though so can't speak on them.
It depends on which game you're playing in the Bay Area. I play Matrix a few times a year, and the 2/3/5 games are usually pretty soft. The 2/3/5/10 DS ($2k max) can be outright insane. The rake is unfavorable...it's like a $5 or $6 drop on the flop, even in a limped pot. They also drop $1 pre, even on a chop. It doesn't affect the 2/3/5 game too much because there's usually plenty of action, but it can make a nitty 1/2/3 game horrendous.
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Old 12-31-2018, 10:51 AM   #22811
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
happy new year everyone & gl with your 2018 goals!

2017 Results:

Graph: https://imgur.com/a/7TpGH

Main Games:
2/5NL: +42,037; 513 hrs; 81.92/hr; 16.38bb/hr
T/TNL: +44,787; 235 hrs; 190.92/hr; 19.09bb/hr

Other:
1/2NL: -108; 27 hrs
1/3NL: +139; 3 hrs
2/2PLO: -1561; 25 hrs
5/5PLO: -290; 3 hrs
MTTs:-225; 3 hrs

Total: +84,779; 808 hrs; 104.91/hr; 14.96bb/hr

very happy with the year - finished strong after a little downswing. 1/2, PLO, and MTTs obv unbeatable though

2018 may be the year i move to full-time...but we shall see...
Don't really post much here anymore but didn't want to be that guy that only posts results when I am on a heater and not show the full story.

2018 was a great year for me but pretty disappointing for poker. Got promoted at work / bought a house which both drastically limited my ability to get in volume.

Early in the year I was punting a bunch, then was able to bring it back positive but then ran god awful the last half of the year to close out my first losing year.

Going to shoot for about 1 session per week next year but we will see what happens. The back half of 2018 poker was basically nonexistent.

2018 Results:

Graph: https://imgur.com/a/ROeUj6q

Main Games:
2/5NL: -1,287; 231 hrs; -5.58/hr; -1.12bb/hr
T/TNL: -13,144; 122 hrs; -107.81/hr; -10.78bb/hr

Other:
1/2NL: +300, 3 hrs
1/3NL: -605; 3 hrs
T/QNL: +3760; 2 hrs
Promo: +212

Total: -10,764; 361 hrs; -29.85/hr; -4.09bb/hr


May or may not post here again. Either way gl in 2019 to everyone!
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Old 12-31-2018, 05:32 PM   #22812
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sorry for the bad year Dizzy but thanks for posting. Hopefully encourages other people to post their results even if they’re not brilliant
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Old 12-31-2018, 09:03 PM   #22813
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Nice job at the tables Homey and Homer!

Nice job away from them Diz! Believe I have heard about that T/T game, sometimes tough, sometimes juicy. Pretty small sample, easily vulnerable to a bad run. Better luck in '19!
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Old 12-31-2018, 09:16 PM   #22814
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https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7903/3...d3c09f_o_d.png
Thoughts on my year ?

Played exclusively 1/3 as a rec

Not as good as I wanted but I’m improving
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Old 12-31-2018, 09:21 PM   #22815
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Sorry guys trying to figure out this picture stuff

Winning $13.02 over the course of 700 hours at 1/3 and my last 612 hours winning 17.08

Thoughts overall?
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Old 12-31-2018, 09:27 PM   #22816
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard32 View Post
Sorry guys trying to figure out this picture stuff

Winning $13.02 over the course of 700 hours at 1/3 and my last 612 hours winning 17.08

Thoughts overall?
Looks good. What’s your standard deviation?
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Old 12-31-2018, 09:36 PM   #22817
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Looks good. What’s your standard deviation?
Not
High enough hahahaha
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Old 12-31-2018, 09:40 PM   #22818
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Looks good. What’s your standard deviation?
But it’s really $111.28/hr haha
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Old 01-01-2019, 04:18 AM   #22819
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Variance of Live Poker

Assume a player plays 700-1200 hours a year in a 200bb cap game where everyone buys in for 200bb. Also assume that he is a pretty decent winner (~5-8bb/hr). What percentage of years will be losing years? Should he ever have a breakeven/losing year?
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Old 01-01-2019, 04:52 AM   #22820
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Re: Variance of Live Poker

If we assume all you stated is true, the probability of having a losing year is ~2.8% at the given number of hours.
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Old 01-01-2019, 11:20 AM   #22821
Garick
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Re: Variance of Live Poker

Please post this question in our official Winrates Bankroll and Finance thread. I'd move it for you, but I can't do that from my phone.

Never mind. I'm on my computer now, so I'll move it. The answer depends on said player's standard deviation, though.

Last edited by Garick; 01-01-2019 at 02:07 PM.
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Old 01-01-2019, 12:25 PM   #22822
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Here are my 2018 $2/$5 NL results. While I feel (as most of you do) my game has improved dramatically, these results are mediocre compared to the crushers. My volume is predominantly in a Northeast (US) room.

This is my first full year of play since retiring in 2017. I play part-time as a choice. Strangest data point is the session win rate, <.500, typically >.600. Alternatively, I had 9 winning months.

My VPIP was 18, raising ~2/3 of those pot entries. I have successfully widened my 3-bet range and tightened the sc/small pps part of my calling range.

GL to all in 2019!

Hours $W/(L) Hourly
649.25 $12,215 $18.81

Sessions Won Lost
138 66 72

Months Won Lost
12 9 3
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Old 01-01-2019, 12:29 PM   #22823
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^^^^^^ That's a solid year, well done. How do you track your VPIP?
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Old 01-01-2019, 12:50 PM   #22824
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Happy New Year all! I'll add my 2018 results to the pile. Good year for me but definitely room to improve. I don't consider myself top tier or a crusher at my typical tables. I usually feel like I rank about 3rd out of 9 at a full 2/5 table. At 1/2 I do feel top tier but rarely played games smaller than 2/5 other than when waiting for a seat. Accidentally sat 2/5/10 once, they told me it was 2/5. Started the year off on fire and fell back to earth a bit. We'll see if I can maintain this next year. Anyway, here goes:

Game - Hours - $ - BB/hr
1/2 - 23:08 - $2,347 - 50.72 (includes $500 High hand)
1/3 - 12:07 - $1,489 - 40.96
1/3/6 - 0:35 - $70 - 20.00
2/5 - 219:12 - $12,741 - 11.62
2/5/10 - 0:20 - $11 - 3.30
Total - 255:22 - $16,658 - 15.59 ($65.23/hr)
Total - Winning Sessions 65, Losing Sessions 23, Break Even Sessions 3
Total - Longest win streak 14, Longest loss streak 5

Giraffe of all games combined.


Last edited by c0rnBr34d; 01-01-2019 at 12:58 PM.
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Old 01-01-2019, 01:01 PM   #22825
Garick
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Quote:
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But it’s really $111.28/hr haha
Yeah, that's very low. That tells me that you are likely passing up on a lot if +EV spots.
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