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Old 12-23-2018, 01:56 PM   #22776
AllJackedUp
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
Well done. 9bb is impressive. Even if it's "only" 1100 hours like someone in this forum is bound to say.
Well, they'd be right IMO. I'm of the opinion that we can never really know our true winrate in live games. Even 1000 hours isn't that many hands, and the game that I'm sitting in at hour 999 isn't the same game that I was sitting at hour 1 (player pool turns over, some players improve and I should also improve). So, take it all with a grain of salt and d8ck-measuring vs each other this way is kind of pointless.

My winrate for live is pretty much the same over a few thousand hours now at 8-9bb/hr (I've posted graphs itt before). I was also an online winner pre-BF, so I'm confident that I'm a winning player... but, without working on my game and continuing to improve I'd be a loser within a few months.
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Old 12-23-2018, 02:01 PM   #22777
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

[QUOTE=AllJackedUp;54613254]Well, they'd be right IMO. I'm of the opinion that we can never really know our true winrate in live games. Even 1000 hours isn't that many hands, and the game that I'm sitting in at hour 999 isn't the same game that I was sitting at hour 1 (player pool turns over, some players improve and I should also improve). So, take it all with a grain of salt and d8ck-measuring vs each other this way is kind of pointless.

My winrate for live is pretty much the same over a few thousand hours now at 8-9bb/hr (I've posted graphs itt before). I was also an online winner pre-BF, so I'm confident that I'm a winning player... but, without working on my game and continuing to improve I'd be a loser within a few months.[/QUOTE]

This isn't even remotely true. Fish aren't adjusting at all. Just keep value betting and print money. A well disciplined 7th grader could beat the $3 blind games.
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Old 12-23-2018, 09:50 PM   #22778
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
nice werk FW

very strong cash results

keepin it real and showin that middle age (no offense) rec dudes can stomp! Most impressive sir

MTT's suck - phuc em


Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
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Old 12-23-2018, 09:51 PM   #22779
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by AllJackedUp View Post
I'll weigh in, too, for the middle aged crowd (EAD skwid), since I've likely played my last session for the year.

1087 hours of 2/3 NLHE ($400 max)
+$26,165
(I also get $2/hr comps, so add that to my hourly for something more accurate)

I'm not displeased, especially considering that I play morning/afternoon games which are rock-infested with the retirees.

My hourly for MTTs on the year is double that, so eff you guys. ;-)

I haven't tallied online results (I'm USA). I'm up somewhere around $1.5 or $2k for the year online.


Great results!

That’s a **** load of hours for a rec but not many for a pro...what’s your life situation?
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Old 12-24-2018, 01:28 AM   #22780
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
Great results!

That’s a **** load of hours for a rec but not many for a pro...what’s your life situation?
Self-employed, work from home. I have a family, so I like to be home nights and weekends.

Poker has been part-time supplemental income (on and off) since the poker boom. It's a lot easier to find a poker game than drum up new clients. :-)
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Old 12-24-2018, 06:46 AM   #22781
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Badreg2017 View Post
I just realized I screwed something up when I was posting this. $30/hr is 45bb/100 which is the number I used when I put it in the calculator but for some reason I wrote it up as 15bb/100.
Yeah I haven't actually done the P(X>x) calculations but just looking at that app it looks like there's about a 3% chance a guy making 40/hr would win that much in 1052 hours. Like Garick said it depends a lot on standard deviation use. I think 150ish is typical but a LAG in soft 1/2 games could be much higher. If we bump up to say 212 BB/100 then his results fall within the 95 percent confidence interval (the extreme tail).

Unlikely yeah but possible. Still we should be clear....

Even if it were 0.3% that's one guy in 333. This is a "friend of a friend (of a friend?)" kind of report. If persons A, B, and C each have 10 unique poker friends then A knows 1000 poker friends in this network. If we just take "poker associate" as the standard...I know like 30ish poker players not counting online. If they know 30ish that's 900ish in just level two relationships (a guy I know knows a guy). Given there is also an observation selection effect biasing towards reports of extreme results we should not be surprised when they pop up now and then, and in fact they could easily be true.
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Old 12-24-2018, 10:50 AM   #22782
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
played my last session of poker for the year last night so time for my annual results post.

Live in home poker room

2/3 (500) 120 hours +$7309 $60.90ph
2/5/10 (1000) 291 hours +$17,701 $60.75ph

Live while travelling

1/2 Lon (400) 19 hours +100 GBP GBP 5.26ph
2/5 Melb (500) 25 hours - $260 $-10.40 ph

Live cash total

+$24,930 in 456 hours

Online hold em

3/6 (600) 7470 hands +$6164

PLO

Live 1/3 (300) 4 hours +$300
Online 1/2 (400) 1850 hands -$700


Stupid ****ing live MTTs (inc swaps)

1/17 cashes - $10,470


Total Profit $20,224


Nice job fw Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Where did you play online?
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Old 12-24-2018, 11:08 AM   #22783
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
played my last session of poker for the year last night so time for my annual results post.

Live in home poker room

2/3 (500) 120 hours +$7309 $60.90ph
2/5/10 (1000) 291 hours +$17,701 $60.75ph

Live while travelling

1/2 Lon (400) 19 hours +100 GBP GBP 5.26ph
2/5 Melb (500) 25 hours - $260 $-10.40 ph

Live cash total

+$24,930 in 456 hours

Online hold em

3/6 (600) 7470 hands +$6164

PLO

Live 1/3 (300) 4 hours +$300
Online 1/2 (400) 1850 hands -$700


Stupid ****ing live MTTs (inc swaps)

1/17 cashes - $10,470


Total Profit $20,224

Well played FW, best of luck in 2019!
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Old 12-24-2018, 04:43 PM   #22784
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have not played in 3 months and not with any regularity in almost a year.

Opened up the old sock drawer last night to see where my bankroll is at. 10BI on the nose. Got some work to do. Still not sure when I’m going to get to play so maybe a moot point.
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Old 12-24-2018, 06:14 PM   #22785
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Nice job fw Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Where did you play online?


On private apps. All 6 max
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Old 12-24-2018, 06:22 PM   #22786
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Remeber the fish from 15 years ago that thought A6 was a good hand and would go to the felt with any top pair? They are all playing MTTs now, and they havent gotten any better. LLSNL is still profitable, but the fish tank is clearly live MTTs now.
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Old 12-25-2018, 01:46 AM   #22787
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Koss View Post
Remeber the fish from 15 years ago that thought A6 was a good hand and would go to the felt with any top pair? They are all playing MTTs now, and they havent gotten any better. LLSNL is still profitable, but the fish tank is clearly live MTTs now.
Unfortunately, the low volume and massive rake make it nearly impossible to capitalize. It’s easy to play correctly when the big stack has 4BB.

I made decent money back in the day playing live MTT’s but it was all variance. Nothing more tilting than playing great for 4 hours only to get sucked out and have nothing to show for it.
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Old 12-26-2018, 12:01 AM   #22788
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by AllJackedUp View Post
I'll weigh in, too, for the middle aged crowd (EAD skwid), since I've likely played my last session for the year.

1087 hours of 2/3 NLHE ($400 max)
+$26,165
(I also get $2/hr comps, so add that to my hourly for something more accurate)

I'm not displeased, especially considering that I play morning/afternoon games which are rock-infested with the retirees.

My hourly for MTTs on the year is double that, so eff you guys. ;-)

I haven't tallied online results (I'm USA). I'm up somewhere around $1.5 or $2k for the year online.
I'll weigh in as a MAWG as well.

That's a pretty sick grind for a part-timer. Very nice stats sir.

I took off poker for the first half of the year. Life variance, etc. It's not uncommon for me to not play outside of my buddy's $20 rebuy tourney for months on end. Sometimes I just get so sick of poker...even when things are going well.

That being said, I've managed to put in just over 300 hours this year, mostly 2/5 and 5/5 with a little 1/3 mixed in (sometimes it's the only game going, mostly I'll play 1/3 while wait-listed). I've also put in a handful of sessions at 5/10 in Vegas and 2/3/5/10 (the 2/5 Deep Stack game w/ permanent kill UTG) in San Jose when the table dynamics looked especially favorable. I'm not really rolled for those bigger games, but this is a hobby/side hustle for me so it doesn't kill me to take a stab.

1/3 - 58 hours, $1321 profit
2/5, 5/5 - 198 hours, $12,887 profit
5/10 - 47 hours, $7812 profit.

Nothing online.

I ran really hot at the 5/10 games and won some big pots in what would normally be marginal spots, but game selection had a lot to do with it. Sometimes you just get lucky and get a couple of whales dumping cash. My 2/5, 5/5 stats are skewed positive by a very lively 5/5 game that I typically play once a month when I'm in that area for business...there's some rich college kid that comes in and splashes money. Evidently his Dad has a lot of money, and this kid regularly dumps $2k to the table without blinking an eye. My straight 2/5 hourly is just under $38/hr ($5271 profit). I've got just under 60 hours at that 5/5 game that made up the rest.
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Old 12-26-2018, 05:50 PM   #22789
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Old 12-26-2018, 06:46 PM   #22790
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Detroit, AC, FL, basically everywhere I can think of. Even California is no-flop no-drop, although they pull WAY too much OTF itself.
At Commerce, for example, there is a drop pre-flop whether or not there is any action.

At the $40 buy-in, it's 50c to the main drop and 50c to the promo drop.

Even if the blinds "chop".

At the $100 buy-in, it's $1 to the main and $1 to the promo.

And so on for the larger games.
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Old 12-29-2018, 11:55 AM   #22791
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Originally Posted by Nozsr View Post
At Commerce, for example, there is a drop pre-flop whether or not there is any action.

At the $40 buy-in, it's 50c to the main drop and 50c to the promo drop.

Even if the blinds "chop".

At the $100 buy-in, it's $1 to the main and $1 to the promo.

And so on for the larger games.
I'll add that to the long list of reasons never to go to Commerce. I've played in a few places in the Bay Area that just pulled $2-3 on the flop. LA is weird.
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Old 12-29-2018, 12:24 PM   #22792
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
I'll add that to the long list of reasons never to go to Commerce. I've played in a few places in the Bay Area that just pulled $2-3 on the flop. LA is weird.
I'd say on average the 5/5+ at Commerce incites enough action and deep stacks to handily overcome the drop. I see it as an action tax

I don't have any experience with Bay Area casinos though so can't speak on them.
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Old 12-29-2018, 12:40 PM   #22793
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Sensimuse View Post
I'd say on average the 5/5+ at Commerce incites enough action and deep stacks to handily overcome the drop. I see it as an action tax



I don't have any experience with Bay Area casinos though so can't speak on them.


Bay Area games in my experience make LA games seem right in comparison.
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Old 12-29-2018, 05:47 PM   #22794
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Quick question for those of you more mathematically inclined.

Over 800 hours and six months of play (mostly at $1/$3, with some $2/$5 and PLO mixed in), my bb/hr. std. dev. is 90 and my $/hr. std. dev. is $200.

With a bb/hr. of 2.7 and $9.40/hr. overall, are my results statistically significant?

My hourly by month:

July: $17

August: $24

September: $19

October: -$1 (runbad/tilt)

November: -$10 (went to Vegas, got owned in PLO)

December: $28.

Thanks,
DT

Last edited by DumbosTrunk; 12-29-2018 at 06:11 PM.
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Old 12-29-2018, 06:14 PM   #22795
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No
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Old 12-29-2018, 06:21 PM   #22796
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No
Thanks. Does this mean I can't draw any valid conclusions from this sample size? I.e., data are totally useless right now? At what point would they become significant?
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Old 12-29-2018, 06:24 PM   #22797
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Yes, but the bounds are big. You are not yet a proven winner.

It's apples to oranges, though, with the PLO mixed in. Give me the number of hours of NL, BB/hr and SD in BB/he, and I can figure your 95% confidence interval.
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Old 12-29-2018, 06:27 PM   #22798
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I think you could be starting to draw some conclusions with 800 hours at one game and stake (am I a winning player, some broad assumptions about win rate +\- say 30% of that win rate) but it seems like you’re splitting across different stakes and games so the data becomes less useful

Also, imo don’t fall into the trap of explaining away your worst months (and probably assuming your best month are more indicative). That can only lead to bad things happening
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Old 12-29-2018, 06:29 PM   #22799
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Yes, but the bounds are big. You are not yet a proven winner.

It's apples to oranges, though, with the PLO mixed in. Give me the number of hours of NL, BB/hr and SD in BB/he, and I can figure your 95% confidence interval.
Here's the breakdown by game type:

1/2 NL: 33 hours, $11/hr.

1/3 NL: 692 hours, $9.2/hr.

2/5 NL: 20 hours, $90.5/hr.

1/2 PLO: 51 hours, -$21.7/hr.

Thanks!
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Old 12-29-2018, 06:36 PM   #22800
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
I think you could be starting to draw some conclusions with 800 hours at one game and stake (am I a winning player, some broad assumptions about win rate +\- say 30% of that win rate) but it seems like you’re splitting across different stakes and games so the data becomes less useful

Also, imo don’t fall into the trap of explaining away your worst months (and probably assuming your best month are more indicative). That can only lead to bad things happening
I'm being pretty honest with myself that I didn't play my best in October and got spewy at times due to tilt-inducing runbad. And the games in Vegas were tougher and I really got crushed in PLO.

Not really trying to explain away, just being real.
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