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Old 12-11-2018, 10:46 PM   #22726
onguard
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
this was posted in another thread, i think it answers your question
Archie being a known ap/convicted cheat takes a little away from the sun run aspect but still.
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Old 12-11-2018, 11:24 PM   #22727
Shai Hulud
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Nepeeme2008 View Post
No, I'm not speaking about variance. I'm not trying to argue against that.
I don't think anyone really knows exactly what sample size is a definitive indicator of true variance.
Maybe I don't really know my own point my self.
I guess I was complaining about, not arguing, is how internet players constantly, seemingly belittle live player's experience as far as volume is concerned.
It all goes back to when the old high stakes poker was televised and one of the younger internet guys, I don't remember who it was, was claiming he had gained a lot more experience than Doyle in a few years of playing online. I thought that was pretty ridiculous, even if he was dealt a lot more hands online.
If Brunson played poker for 50 years, 6 days a week, with the conservative estimate of 8 hours a day(30 hands an hour), he'd have played 3 and a half million hands in his lifetime.
I think, after a certain count, volume becomes irrelevant anyway.
I don't know exactly what that number is but it is at some point.
You can't argue with me that because you've seen 3million hands and I've maybe only seen a million, that that really makes a difference.
Didn't intend to ruffle any feathers, just like a good conversation.
I was not belittling anyone's experience or making the argument you suggest. Reread my post. Obviously playing 1 hand every 2 seconds you don't gain as much from that hand as you would if you had 2 minutes (though most hands are quarter second auto folds and the tougher hands got more like 15s per decision). I was only demonstrating 30k hands is not that large as a sample size to show one can run good or bad for very long periods in live poker. I'm looking at the comparison purely statistically.

3.5 million hands is a gigantic life sample size though. Very few people will get close to that.

Sorry for the unintentional derail Garick, I just want to clarify I wasn't demeaning anyone's experience as less significant.
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Old 12-11-2018, 11:34 PM   #22728
Shai Hulud
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Detroit, AC, FL, basically everywhere I can think of. Even California is no-flop no-drop, although they pull WAY too much OTF itself.
I play in Florida they drop preflop here at least in the Tampa area. Pretty sure they do in SFL but could be mistaken.

I said in another thread I thought LA was "no flop no drop" but a couple posters including MikeStarr said I was mistaken.

I'm not trying to argue with anyone just would like accurate information about the state of rake around the country and have heard contradictory things.
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Old 12-12-2018, 12:09 AM   #22729
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
I play in Florida they drop preflop here at least in the Tampa area. Pretty sure they do in SFL but could be mistaken.

I said in another thread I thought LA was "no flop no drop" but a couple posters including MikeStarr said I was mistaken.

I'm not trying to argue with anyone just would like accurate information about the state of rake around the country and have heard contradictory things.
The Isle in Pompano Beach (S. Florida) is No flop No drop, but most of the other S. Florida rooms are not. I know for sure that The Hard Rock and Palm Beach Kennel Club are not. I cant remember about the smaller rooms as I dont play those others much at all.
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Old 12-12-2018, 12:53 AM   #22730
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
Dear The Dude,
It sounds to me like you have almost already made your decision. As you are currently seeing the gamboolin lifestyle is incredibly isolating and lonely. When you are in the midst of a nasty downswing it seems like you are the only person in the world that runs this bad. The truth is this feeling never goes away - cuz the swings are out there and they will happen.

If you really "love poker" play it part time as a side income. Otherwise get all the way out. The glass ceiling on poker is constantly getting lower and thicker. If you are struggling with 1/2 after this much time you have some serious leaks.

You are not a quitter if you stop trying to be a full time pro. You have simply seen the light that there are far better ways to make a living rather than dealing with the energy suck that is the casino environment, and the never ending lonely road that is the professional poker player.

If you are dreading playing 1/2 now after only being on the scene for under a year imagine how you are going to feel after 5, 10, or 20 years.

Very few people last more than a few years trying to be a pro. And those that do last seem to always be trying to find a way out (myself included). That should be evidence enough to hang it up.

good luck and best wishes
skwid
Thanks for listening and taking the time to write an honest reply along w/gobbledygeek. I try to be honest with myself as well. I went out and played today and FINALLY had a decent winning session (up $313 in 4 1/2 hours). I realize one winning session isnt going to turn things around for me, but I had a decent player at the table say to me that "I'm tough to play against" (which obviously isnt something that happens often to anyone) and then I turned around a few hands later and take another big pot from him and he did a table change right after that. So at least that gives me some hope.

Maybe me posting that request for advice was cathartic. A similar thing happened to me when I wasnt doing well at DFS. I posted a message on a DFS web site not understanding why I wasnt winning and then that very night took down 3rd place in a tourny and the rest is history as I ended up having a career 19% ROI over a few years playing DFS. Maybe in both instances it helped me reset and clear my mind of negative thoughts and just allowed me to concentrate at the task at hand.

In any case, I'm giving myself until the end of the year and then I'll re-evaluate if I'll continue playing or not. I know that is a very short time frame, but I think I've given myself adequate time to get things together poker-wise.

But thanks again.
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Old 12-12-2018, 12:18 PM   #22731
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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
I play in Florida they drop preflop here at least in the Tampa area. Pretty sure they do in SFL but could be mistaken.

I said in another thread I thought LA was "no flop no drop" but a couple posters including MikeStarr said I was mistaken.

I'm not trying to argue with anyone just would like accurate information about the state of rake around the country and have heard contradictory things.
I don't remember seeing that when I was in Tampa at the Casino a few years ago, and I know for sure the dog tracks around Ft Myers were no-flop-no-drop.
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Old 12-12-2018, 12:43 PM   #22732
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Angrist - Hard Rock Tampa has had preflop rake for a least the past 3.5 years. That being said the game quality makes up for that rake that is oh so painful to watch happen
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Old 12-12-2018, 12:50 PM   #22733
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Has anyone here played in the UK? How would you compare the games to American ones if so?
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Old 12-12-2018, 11:07 PM   #22734
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I have never played poker in a room that did not take pre-flop rake. There is definitely pre-flop rake in Los Angeles. Never thought about how much rake ( in a standard casino environment where it isn't too crazy) can impact winrate. Just another reason why games get progressively worse. Increased rake + increased player skill + increased cost of living + inflation cant be good. Had a conversation with a friend where I argued that because of the long term increases in those bad variables that as a live pro things would only trend downward. He disagreed but it was an interesting conversation.
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Old 12-12-2018, 11:32 PM   #22735
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Originally Posted by 7weeks2days View Post
I have never played poker in a room that did not take pre-flop rake. There is definitely pre-flop rake in Los Angeles. Never thought about how much rake ( in a standard casino environment where it isn't too crazy) can impact winrate. Just another reason why games get progressively worse. Increased rake + increased player skill + increased cost of living + inflation cant be good. Had a conversation with a friend where I argued that because of the long term increases in those bad variables that as a live pro things would only trend downward. He disagreed but it was an interesting conversation.
Then you need to play in more rooms. There are a LOT that don't do that. All over the country.

I play in enough home games with guys I'm chummy with to know what the rake for the night is ... and it's easily $200/hr at a NLHE table. Call it $20/seat/hr. It's hard to say exactly how much of that the winning vs. the losing players pay, but it's not insignificant at all.
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Old 12-13-2018, 12:04 AM   #22736
7weeks2days
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Then you need to play in more rooms. There are a LOT that don't do that. All over the country.

I play in enough home games with guys I'm chummy with to know what the rake for the night is ... and it's easily $200/hr at a NLHE table. Call it $20/seat/hr. It's hard to say exactly how much of that the winning vs. the losing players pay, but it's not insignificant at all.

I have only played in <6 rooms on the east coast, west coast and midwest total. I never said there weren't rooms that don't take pre-flop rake only that I haven't played in them. The most interesting part is when people discuss the hourly difference caused by rake. How it could be 15$+- based on rake is an eye catching number. Is there a reasonable way to calculate this number that makes sense or are people just grabbing numbers out of thin air?
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Old 12-13-2018, 12:12 AM   #22737
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You figure the average rake at a place per hand, then the average number of hands per hour, then divide by the number of players at the table. That gives you the average rake per hour at that casino.
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Old 12-13-2018, 01:47 AM   #22738
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Yup. Garick is right for a rough guess. You can count on the fly if you'd like when you're at the table too. Or if the room drops the rake in the rack instead of a box, count that periodically. $30 hands/hr @ a lowish $4/pot average rake is $120/hr. But IME the avg rake is a little higher, or if the pots are smaller they're also faster and you're closer to 40/hr.

The real numbers that I've heard come from guys running home games that play effectively the same or bigger than the casinos, at comparable rake levels (although they also tend to have free food, good free booze, an idiot host that's playing out of the rake money, and sometimes naked masseuses, so totally worth it).
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Old 12-13-2018, 06:31 AM   #22739
onguard
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by 7weeks2days View Post
I have only played in <6 rooms on the east coast, west coast and midwest total. I never said there weren't rooms that don't take pre-flop rake only that I haven't played in them. The most interesting part is when people discuss the hourly difference caused by rake. How it could be 15$+- based on rake is an eye catching number. Is there a reasonable way to calculate this number that makes sense or are people just grabbing numbers out of thin air?
If you're looking for a starting place that is better than thin air what casinos charge in time raked games is good because there is no guesswork. They typically charge at least $7 eveey thirty minutes to every player. At a nine handed game that's $126 an hour coming off the table. That's in pure rake no jackpots, not counting tipping or paying $8 for a beer or whatever. The house is far and away the best player at the table in almost every game that gets spread.
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Old 12-17-2018, 01:02 PM   #22740
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by 7weeks2days View Post
Just another reason why games get progressively worse. Increased rake + increased player skill + increased cost of living + inflation cant be good. Had a conversation with a friend where I argued that because of the long term increases in those bad variables that as a live pro things would only trend downward. He disagreed but it was an interesting conversation.
Would be interesting to hear your friends objections to this reasoning, cuz I can't think of a single positive long term upward trend, let alone one that would offset all the negative reasons you state as to why games can only get worse (which I agree with).

GcluelessdelusionalnoobG
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Old 12-18-2018, 11:12 AM   #22741
cannabusto
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Would be interesting to hear your friends objections to this reasoning, cuz I can't think of a single positive long term upward trend, let alone one that would offset all the negative reasons you state as to why games can only get worse (which I agree with).

GcluelessdelusionalnoobG
Yeah, it seems to be quite certain despite the most recent, soon to be deleted, post rebutting the argument. The only hope for reversing this trend is an unlikely cultural shift bringing special attention to poker (again). If there does happen to be any correlation between public policy and game quality, it is very minor indeed. The economy is less connected to policy than is typically believed. Besides, wages are stagnant and the market is down this year, so I see no reason to believe any perceived improvement in game quality is associated with current policy.

I am trying to address this in an objective, fair, general, and poker-centric way, so please do not read this as me wishing to advance a political discussion itt. Posts itt shouldn't mention Trump, political parties, or advocacy for political causes. There's an entire forum for that. I do think a discussion of how policy impacts winrates is okay though, but will cease further discussion if mods desire.
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Old 12-18-2018, 11:41 AM   #22742
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Post above is fine, for the reasons given. The one before that was not, and is now gone.
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Old 12-19-2018, 01:34 AM   #22743
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Re: Fact or Fiction?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CoranMoran View Post
I was talking Win Rates with some guys at the local cardroom. And one player made a claim that the rest of us did not believe. So we made a wager.
There is no way to prove if his claim is fact or fiction.
So we decided to bet whether or not the "average poker player" would believe that his win rate was reasonably possible.

2018
Level: 1-2
Total Hours: 1052
Win Rate: $55


Notes:
This is Oregon, so there is no rake
This win rate does not include money spent on tips or the daily door fee.

Given the amount of hours he claims to have put in this year, do you believe that his win rate is believable?

Personally, I find it difficult to imagine that even a high-stakes pro who was stepping down from nose bleeds for a year winning over 27 bbs per hour.

What do you think?
I know you do not know the player in question, but is it reasonably possibly for anyone to win $55 an hour at 1-2?

Please advise
Your answers will determine who wins the bet.

--CM
Essentially zero chance this is true. Let’s assume 33 hands/hr. According to this: http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/ Even someone whose true winrate was $30/hr or 15bb/100 winning at 75bb/100 over a 33k sample of hands is 0.0000%. Someone beating the game for a true winrate of $40 an hours has a .3% shot.

So if I’m choosing between this guy being a $40/hr crusher who also went on a once in a lifetime heater or him being a liar I’m gonna go with him being a liar.
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Old 12-19-2018, 11:50 AM   #22744
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I just realized I screwed something up when I was posting this. $30/hr is 45bb/100 which is the number I used when I put it in the calculator but for some reason I wrote it up as 15bb/100.
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:49 PM   #22745
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Re: Fact or Fiction?

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Originally Posted by Badreg2017 View Post
Essentially zero chance this is true. Let’s assume 33 hands/hr. According to this: http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/ Even someone whose true winrate was $30/hr or 15bb/100 winning at 75bb/100 over a 33k sample of hands is 0.0000%. Someone beating the game for a true winrate of $40 an hours has a .3% shot.

So if I’m choosing between this guy being a $40/hr crusher who also went on a once in a lifetime heater or him being a liar I’m gonna go with him being a liar.
TY for the pokerdope link. Interesting and made me feel a little better about downswings based on my records so far. Also, it showed I need under 2k for a bankroll for $ 1-2 play. That's half than what I always thought.
Maybe there's hope for me yet...
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:50 PM   #22746
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Re: Fact or Fiction?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jelloman View Post
TY for the pokerdope link. Interesting and made me feel a little better about downswings based on my records so far. Also, it showed I need under 2k for a bankroll for $ 1-2 play. That's half than what I always thought.
Maybe there's hope for me yet...
I've lost $2k in one session playing 1/2 before, and I'm a lifetime crusher at 1/2.
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:59 PM   #22747
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The thing that is very wrong with those variance calculators is that everyone leaves the default Standard Deviation in there, which is designed for nitty online microstakes grinders. LLSNL SDevs are WAY higher. Like at least 3 times higher, often considerably more.

That said, 1KBBs in one session is definitely not a normal loss. Must be a crazy and deep game.
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Old 12-19-2018, 05:02 PM   #22748
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Re: Fact or Fiction?

Quote:
Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
I've lost $2k in one session playing 1/2 before, and I'm a lifetime crusher at 1/2.

was that an uncapped 1/2 table?
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Old 12-19-2018, 05:31 PM   #22749
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Re: Fact or Fiction?

Quote:
Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
I've lost $2k in one session playing 1/2 before, and I'm a lifetime crusher at 1/2.
Holy cap batman. I did $1500 once on mad tilt. 2k is impressive.

Go Mavericks!!!!!!!
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Old 12-19-2018, 07:50 PM   #22750
crsseyed
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Re: Fact or Fiction?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CoranMoran View Post
I was talking Win Rates with some guys at the local cardroom. And one player made a claim that the rest of us did not believe. So we made a wager.
There is no way to prove if his claim is fact or fiction.
So we decided to bet whether or not the "average poker player" would believe that his win rate was reasonably possible.

2018
Level: 1-2
Total Hours: 1052
Win Rate: $55


Notes:
This is Oregon, so there is no rake
This win rate does not include money spent on tips or the daily door fee.

Given the amount of hours he claims to have put in this year, do you believe that his win rate is believable?

Personally, I find it difficult to imagine that even a high-stakes pro who was stepping down from nose bleeds for a year winning over 27 bbs per hour.

What do you think?
I know you do not know the player in question, but is it reasonably possibly for anyone to win $55 an hour at 1-2?

Please advise
Your answers will determine who wins the bet.

--CM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoranMoran View Post
Most people buy in for $200-$300
The player in question always buys in for the max:$400


Yes. Straddles are common from UTG and BTN.
Straddles at 1-2 must be $5


No. Tables are alost always full with 9 players


Yes. 1-2 is the biggest game in this card room.
There are occasional 2-5 games around the city on certain days of the week.


I hear people claim that the “sample size is too small” no matter how many hours have been played.
1000 hours represents an entire year’s worth of play from this regular.
That’s 20 hours a week every week for the whole year.
That’s essentially a 2nd job.
I'm beginning to think that there is no sample size large enough for people to ever say “Yeah, that is big enough to prove something.”

Thanks for the feedback, guys.

--cm



Yeah, it's not likely but it's obviously possible if he heaters like crazy
So people really run heaters for an entire year?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Badreg2017 View Post
Essentially zero chance this is true. Let’s assume 33 hands/hr. According to this: http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/ Even someone whose true winrate was $30/hr or 15bb/100 winning at 75bb/100 over a 33k sample of hands is 0.0000%. Someone beating the game for a true winrate of $40 an hours has a .3% shot.

So if I’m choosing between this guy being a $40/hr crusher who also went on a once in a lifetime heater or him being a liar I’m gonna go with him being a liar.
I played in a 1/2 home game with a win rate of $50.01/hr for 828 hrs. This was after tips and $1/hand rake. Max buyin was $500 but was rarely done, prob average buyin was ~300. Of course I ran like God/ha. But this game sounds very similar. So yes, player's claim of $55/hr is very possible in these conditions....especially as this is "biggest game available" to original player
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