You wouldn't know how an extended down swing feels until you actually experience one, or several.

We all think we can handle it. It can't be that bad, can it?

1) Despite the ridiculous claims made by people on this site that everyone knows are exaggerated, there are very few people making $18 hourly playing 1/2 NL. It's an extremely small % of the player pool. It is not as simple as signing up to this site, announcing that you're an awesome TAG and better than all those live donks, and going to do it.

2) I doubt many players at all put in anywhere near 1500, 2000 hours a year. Again, a lot easier typed than done.

3) No one is doing this for a career. That much is obvious. Casinos might have 1/10th the number of tables X# of years down the road when the boom totally dies. Someone isn't going to own a house or a car with untaxed 1/2 NL poker winnings, nor are they going to be a grown adult with a family doing it. As evidence by this site, the only people claiming to attempt it are young kids living at home who vanish from posting about it.

4) I've played many different venues over a number of years, in a heavily populated area, so my sample size for this discussion does matter. This convo has come up in real life with other players I spend time around and they say the same thing. I can't say that you didn't meet those handful of guys, but they may be exaggerating, or be people who clearly won't be doing it for any length of time. If the best example anyone can give is ONE person who has done it for FOUR years during a boom, that pretty much confirms my thought process.

Mpethy does play in Vegas, so if there are 1/2 grinders that are doing it, Vegas is the most likely place and thus mpethy is more likely to have met them.

What are the biggest break even/losing stretches you guys have had at games you beat fairly well overall, in terms of hours?

I haven't had a sick one yet at live, but have had many sick ones online of course, so I know it's possible.

4 to 5 weeks roughly.

Can you give it in hours? If you play like 40+ hours every week then it's pretty sick, but if you were working then then maybe it's not as big a deal.

Longest point between peak and peak has been 90~ hours for me, otherwise I've been fairly consistent.

25-30 hours a week, 4-5 weeks.

I am looking at a large chart of over 1700 hours of samples or so.

Yeah I guess that's a bit longer than my stretch; that said I was playing 6-7 hours a day so it didn't feel as long to me.

What's your sample size, and what are you trying to find out exactly?

Just curious. My suspicion is that most good players at live have a much higher bb/100 winrate than online players so their downswings in terms of HAND sample is much shorter.

Most online regs have had like 200k 300k hand downswings. I bet that's a LOT less likely for a good live reg.

So you broke even for like < 150 hours, assuming 28 hands/hour (what do you think avg is?) that's a sub 5k hand downswing, which in the online world is nothing, but imo, is a pretty substantial downswing for live players playing at non super competitive stakes.

Like, wouldn't you say that 5k hand or 150 hour downswings for live probably aren't super common if you're not playing high stakes?

I have almost 1k sample, but I think I've been running super hot throughout.

Does it really matter though? What are you trying to figure out?

How much money I need saved up to be comfortable.

I guess you're right; "as much as possible" is never a bad choice.

I'm dumping like 65k pounds into a bond so I could apply for a British visa, so I can't touch that, and then I'm staking a bunch of people/invested in a business, so I'm stretched a bit thin. I've also never worked a job in my life, ever. I guess I don't really have a choice; dissolve stakes or get one if I have to, I guess. Can always grind online if worst comes to worst.

FTP money coming back solves problems though.

Go with the conventional wisdom in that regards. Anything else is sort of case by case.

Well I'd love to hear what most regs here have had in terms of longest downswing/break even in hours. Keeps my from being over confident maybe, as I've run preeeetty hot.

Got 169GBP hourly playing 1/2 to 5/10 uncapped, and a 69 hourly at 1/2 over 400+ hours. Pretty sick, really.

I know a higher hourly = more likely to have a high expected/true hourly, but running hot makes me a bit antsy about whether I would be able to keep my mindset clear the way I can right now if I were to run bad. It's easy to not tilt over losing if I feel like I can easily win it back the next day, but it'd be a different thing altogether if I'd been losing the past half dozen or so sessions, you know? Even the last time I had a big loss, like 12k, I immediately had a +1k and +2k session right after which numbs it a little. I imagine if I had a 10k loss and then lost 1k and 1k again after it'd feel worse just because it would feel like I couldn't win anymore.

I'd love to say it wouldn't affect my play too much, and I do think I will keep to my B game at least, which is still fairly profitable, but I can't be sure.

I hope to get 2k hours in by end of the year so as to have a more confident sample size, and here's the sick thing; I am going to go to HK and will have to rely on private games to get my volume in; otherwise I'd have to go to Macau a lot (sick commute) or go to Australia-rake-monopoly-heaven. Zzzzzzzz.

GBP is about $1.60 US, so translate average US winrates to GBP and assume you are above average and you are running hot. Otherwise, just keep doing what you are doing.

some thoughts:

if you are just going to be grinding part-time while in school 6 months + 30 BIs + money you need for school should be OK

BUT BR math changes when you start spending you poker profits every months - both from a risk of ruin calculation and psychologically

simple rule has helped me - spend less than you earn every month and invest the difference

a ton of my bankroll management is controlling my expenses and focusing on growing the BR

overall i think 99.9% of people would be better off with job than grinding 1/2 but you haven't told us how good of a job you are quitting

any thought to adjust my game with rakeback? I am having a rakeback deal with local casino. I am opening a 1/2 game, 5d/w for min. 5h/d max. 12h/d

There are definitely players making a living playing 1/2. I know of 3 at my casino (there may be more). However, these guys tend to be middle aged or older. If you're young then 1/2 should just be the means to move up in level. I don't know why people think it's so impossible that people make a living at 1/2. A lot of people in the US make less than $15/hr (that being said, I think making a living at 1/2 would be pretty ****ty).

BTW, there are a ton of old nits at 2/5 who play everyday, and I have to think some of these geezers are trying to make a living at it, but IMO they should all move down to 1/2 because I really have a hard time reconciling that these nits are winning players. (in fact, I know one player that plays 40+ hrs a week who takes a 5+ hr bus drive to the casino...lol)

How do you get a rakeback deal from the casino?

I am opening a game with my buddy every day except of fri & sat...

This casino is running just a one table of NLH, without us opening the game, it would be empty all the time during the week days.

I got this job thru my buddy, he knew floorman for a long time and floorman offered him this deal.

So yeah that's it basically...

Dreamjob???

Nah I don't think so

that is sick!

yep, I am doing it for over 3 months now.. sick part is, that I am getting paid for every hour I'm there, and I don't have to play. So If I'm there at 8pm and we're not playing till 10pm, I am still paid for 2 hours...

2outsNoProb, you're flat out wrong when you assume no one is playing 1/2 for a living. We can all agree there are 1/2 players who beat the game for 9-10 BB/hr. And we know there are hardworking people in this country earning less than that while busting their ass. Now, are ALL 1/2 players going to move up to 2/5 and higher? They might try, but some will get knocked back down to 1/2, a level where they feel comfortable and can beat the game handily.

2) 1500 hours, for anyone without another job, is really not asking a whole lot. This is being done on a regular basis by hundreds of 1/2 grinders.

3) you're assuming, and you're wrong

4) empethy is not alone. I play for a living, mostly 2/5 and 5/10, but just being in the card room on a regular basis, I meet 1/2 grinders, usually when they're taking shots at 2/5. I personally know several players who currently play 1/2 for a living. No, they're not getting rich, but they're making $18-24/hr, and they're not working a real job.

Grunch: IMO your roll should be about double your largest possible downswing if you wanna be serious about about being pro or w/e. If you have high confidence that you are a 8+ bb longterm winner your downswings will be few and far between. You can maintain a 4000bb roll to have 0% RoR and never dip very far below 2000bb, which is still plenty to comfortably rebuild.

Oh and being a 1/2 pro is no sweat if you live in a high volume area. Why is $20 an hour so bad? That's around what lots of college graduates get for their first job, and you have room to grow to 2/5 and bust a sweet $50/h.