Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-05-2012, 03:04 PM   #2251
WinterBlues
enthusiast
 
WinterBlues's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 81
Re: Question for LLSNL "professional players"

Alright sounds good. I'll do both part time to see how it goes for a while. Most of my time played was not on weekends though. I play a lot of weekdays, as I was usually working weekends.
WinterBlues is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2012, 05:29 PM   #2252
AmazonPrime
banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,271
You wouldn't know how an extended down swing feels until you actually experience one, or several.

We all think we can handle it. It can't be that bad, can it?
AmazonPrime is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2012, 06:28 PM   #2253
2OutsNoProb
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: BK, NY
Posts: 15,997
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
It's fine for you to say that you've never met someone who plays 1/2 for a living. What is problematic is when you infer from that that there are no such people.

I've been playing live in Vegas for a year, and in that time I have met 5 or 6 guys who play 1/2 for a living. The guy I am most familiar with is a guy who has been doing it successfully for 4 years. I've spoken to him extensively, and his claims have been verified by dealers and floor personnel.

He is the exception in that he chooses to stay at 1/2. Most of the people who play 1/2 for a living that i have met consider it an entry level job, and are looking to move up quickly. This is probably the reason most people who claim to play 1/2 for a living disappear; because they take a shot quickly and either bust or move up permanently.


As for the kind of living you can make--it's comparable to other entry level jobs, I would imagine. Just do the math on $18/hr x 1500 hours or so--those are both modest numbers, but they allow you more than enough to live frugally while you build a roll.
1) Despite the ridiculous claims made by people on this site that everyone knows are exaggerated, there are very few people making $18 hourly playing 1/2 NL. It's an extremely small % of the player pool. It is not as simple as signing up to this site, announcing that you're an awesome TAG and better than all those live donks, and going to do it.

2) I doubt many players at all put in anywhere near 1500, 2000 hours a year. Again, a lot easier typed than done.

3) No one is doing this for a career. That much is obvious. Casinos might have 1/10th the number of tables X# of years down the road when the boom totally dies. Someone isn't going to own a house or a car with untaxed 1/2 NL poker winnings, nor are they going to be a grown adult with a family doing it. As evidence by this site, the only people claiming to attempt it are young kids living at home who vanish from posting about it.

4) I've played many different venues over a number of years, in a heavily populated area, so my sample size for this discussion does matter. This convo has come up in real life with other players I spend time around and they say the same thing. I can't say that you didn't meet those handful of guys, but they may be exaggerating, or be people who clearly won't be doing it for any length of time. If the best example anyone can give is ONE person who has done it for FOUR years during a boom, that pretty much confirms my thought process.
2OutsNoProb is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2012, 06:35 PM   #2254
AmazonPrime
banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,271
Mpethy does play in Vegas, so if there are 1/2 grinders that are doing it, Vegas is the most likely place and thus mpethy is more likely to have met them.
AmazonPrime is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2012, 02:50 AM   #2255
Sol Reader
The Situation
 
Sol Reader's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq
Posts: 9,380
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What are the biggest break even/losing stretches you guys have had at games you beat fairly well overall, in terms of hours?

I haven't had a sick one yet at live, but have had many sick ones online of course, so I know it's possible.
Sol Reader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2012, 02:53 AM   #2256
AmazonPrime
banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,271
4 to 5 weeks roughly.
AmazonPrime is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2012, 02:58 AM   #2257
Sol Reader
The Situation
 
Sol Reader's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq
Posts: 9,380
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Can you give it in hours? If you play like 40+ hours every week then it's pretty sick, but if you were working then then maybe it's not as big a deal.

Longest point between peak and peak has been 90~ hours for me, otherwise I've been fairly consistent.
Sol Reader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2012, 03:00 AM   #2258
AmazonPrime
banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,271
25-30 hours a week, 4-5 weeks.

I am looking at a large chart of over 1700 hours of samples or so.
AmazonPrime is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2012, 03:02 AM   #2259
Sol Reader
The Situation
 
Sol Reader's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq
Posts: 9,380
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yeah I guess that's a bit longer than my stretch; that said I was playing 6-7 hours a day so it didn't feel as long to me.
Sol Reader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2012, 03:10 AM   #2260
AmazonPrime
banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,271
What's your sample size, and what are you trying to find out exactly?
AmazonPrime is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2012, 03:14 AM   #2261
Sol Reader
The Situation
 
Sol Reader's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq
Posts: 9,380
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just curious. My suspicion is that most good players at live have a much higher bb/100 winrate than online players so their downswings in terms of HAND sample is much shorter.

Most online regs have had like 200k 300k hand downswings. I bet that's a LOT less likely for a good live reg.

So you broke even for like < 150 hours, assuming 28 hands/hour (what do you think avg is?) that's a sub 5k hand downswing, which in the online world is nothing, but imo, is a pretty substantial downswing for live players playing at non super competitive stakes.

Like, wouldn't you say that 5k hand or 150 hour downswings for live probably aren't super common if you're not playing high stakes?

I have almost 1k sample, but I think I've been running super hot throughout.
Sol Reader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2012, 03:27 AM   #2262
AmazonPrime
banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,271
Does it really matter though? What are you trying to figure out?
AmazonPrime is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2012, 03:43 AM   #2263
Sol Reader
The Situation
 
Sol Reader's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq
Posts: 9,380
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How much money I need saved up to be comfortable.

I guess you're right; "as much as possible" is never a bad choice.

I'm dumping like 65k pounds into a bond so I could apply for a British visa, so I can't touch that, and then I'm staking a bunch of people/invested in a business, so I'm stretched a bit thin. I've also never worked a job in my life, ever. I guess I don't really have a choice; dissolve stakes or get one if I have to, I guess. Can always grind online if worst comes to worst.

FTP money coming back solves problems though.
Sol Reader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2012, 03:46 AM   #2264
AmazonPrime
banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,271
Go with the conventional wisdom in that regards. Anything else is sort of case by case.
AmazonPrime is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2012, 03:53 AM   #2265
Sol Reader
The Situation
 
Sol Reader's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq
Posts: 9,380
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Well I'd love to hear what most regs here have had in terms of longest downswing/break even in hours. Keeps my from being over confident maybe, as I've run preeeetty hot.

Got 169GBP hourly playing 1/2 to 5/10 uncapped, and a 69 hourly at 1/2 over 400+ hours. Pretty sick, really.

I know a higher hourly = more likely to have a high expected/true hourly, but running hot makes me a bit antsy about whether I would be able to keep my mindset clear the way I can right now if I were to run bad. It's easy to not tilt over losing if I feel like I can easily win it back the next day, but it'd be a different thing altogether if I'd been losing the past half dozen or so sessions, you know? Even the last time I had a big loss, like 12k, I immediately had a +1k and +2k session right after which numbs it a little. I imagine if I had a 10k loss and then lost 1k and 1k again after it'd feel worse just because it would feel like I couldn't win anymore.

I'd love to say it wouldn't affect my play too much, and I do think I will keep to my B game at least, which is still fairly profitable, but I can't be sure.

I hope to get 2k hours in by end of the year so as to have a more confident sample size, and here's the sick thing; I am going to go to HK and will have to rely on private games to get my volume in; otherwise I'd have to go to Macau a lot (sick commute) or go to Australia-rake-monopoly-heaven. Zzzzzzzz.
Sol Reader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2012, 09:29 AM   #2266
fanmail
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
fanmail's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Crown Town
Posts: 32,416
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

GBP is about $1.60 US, so translate average US winrates to GBP and assume you are above average and you are running hot. Otherwise, just keep doing what you are doing.
fanmail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-09-2012, 12:42 AM   #2267
mike1270
adept
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,056
Re: Question for LLSNL "professional players"

Quote:
Originally Posted by WinterBlues View Post
Hey all!

Hope this is in the right place. For those who make all or most of their income from live poker post BF, how do you distribute your net prof? What % do you put toward bills, your BR, savings, etc. I also understand having minimum 6 months of bills saved is crucial, and I would probably aim for 9-12.

I'm going to switch from my current job to live poker for my sole income. Reasons are freedom and love of the game. I'm going back to school to finish my degree, and prefer the flexibility of a poker schedule to any "real" job.

I've always made a solid hourly at 1/3, 2/3, and feel it would more than suffice for me to live. Also, since this will be my sole income, should my BR be higher than what's standard? I will have time to fit poker studies into my schedule, even with school and a social life, so I plan on getting better while pursuing the degree. Out of curiosity, what do some FT players on here average hourly, and at what stakes?
!

some thoughts:

if you are just going to be grinding part-time while in school 6 months + 30 BIs + money you need for school should be OK

BUT BR math changes when you start spending you poker profits every months - both from a risk of ruin calculation and psychologically

simple rule has helped me - spend less than you earn every month and invest the difference

a ton of my bankroll management is controlling my expenses and focusing on growing the BR

overall i think 99.9% of people would be better off with job than grinding 1/2 but you haven't told us how good of a job you are quitting
mike1270 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-09-2012, 12:59 AM   #2268
ShaolinStyle36
centurion
 
ShaolinStyle36's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: 36th chamber
Posts: 159
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

any thought to adjust my game with rakeback? I am having a rakeback deal with local casino. I am opening a 1/2 game, 5d/w for min. 5h/d max. 12h/d
ShaolinStyle36 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-09-2012, 01:13 AM   #2269
Tom Dwans Son
banned
 
Tom Dwans Son's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 4,004
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

There are definitely players making a living playing 1/2. I know of 3 at my casino (there may be more). However, these guys tend to be middle aged or older. If you're young then 1/2 should just be the means to move up in level. I don't know why people think it's so impossible that people make a living at 1/2. A lot of people in the US make less than $15/hr (that being said, I think making a living at 1/2 would be pretty ****ty).

BTW, there are a ton of old nits at 2/5 who play everyday, and I have to think some of these geezers are trying to make a living at it, but IMO they should all move down to 1/2 because I really have a hard time reconciling that these nits are winning players. (in fact, I know one player that plays 40+ hrs a week who takes a 5+ hr bus drive to the casino...lol)
Tom Dwans Son is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-09-2012, 04:26 AM   #2270
Eazye1269
journeyman
 
Eazye1269's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: ASOT 600 NYC
Posts: 230
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShaolinStyle36 View Post
any thought to adjust my game with rakeback? I am having a rakeback deal with local casino. I am opening a 1/2 game, 5d/w for min. 5h/d max. 12h/d
How do you get a rakeback deal from the casino?
Eazye1269 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-09-2012, 05:15 AM   #2271
ShaolinStyle36
centurion
 
ShaolinStyle36's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: 36th chamber
Posts: 159
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eazye1269 View Post
How do you get a rakeback deal from the casino?
I am opening a game with my buddy every day except of fri & sat...

This casino is running just a one table of NLH, without us opening the game, it would be empty all the time during the week days.

I got this job thru my buddy, he knew floorman for a long time and floorman offered him this deal.

So yeah that's it basically...

Dreamjob???

Nah I don't think so
ShaolinStyle36 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-09-2012, 05:20 AM   #2272
Eazye1269
journeyman
 
Eazye1269's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: ASOT 600 NYC
Posts: 230
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShaolinStyle36 View Post
I am opening a game with my buddy every day except of fri & sat...

This casino is running just a one table of NLH, without us opening the game, it would be empty all the time during the week days.

I got this job thru my buddy, he knew floorman for a long time and floorman offered him this deal.

So yeah that's it basically...

Dreamjob???

Nah I don't think so
that is sick!
Eazye1269 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-09-2012, 06:46 AM   #2273
ShaolinStyle36
centurion
 
ShaolinStyle36's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: 36th chamber
Posts: 159
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eazye1269 View Post
that is sick!
yep, I am doing it for over 3 months now.. sick part is, that I am getting paid for every hour I'm there, and I don't have to play. So If I'm there at 8pm and we're not playing till 10pm, I am still paid for 2 hours...
ShaolinStyle36 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-09-2012, 06:52 AM   #2274
Midnight Cowboy
grinder
 
Midnight Cowboy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: in the Village by the Sea
Posts: 549
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb View Post
1) Despite the ridiculous claims made by people on this site that everyone knows are exaggerated, there are very few people making $18 hourly playing 1/2 NL. It's an extremely small % of the player pool. It is not as simple as signing up to this site, announcing that you're an awesome TAG and better than all those live donks, and going to do it.

2) I doubt many players at all put in anywhere near 1500, 2000 hours a year. Again, a lot easier typed than done.

3) No one is doing this for a career. That much is obvious. Casinos might have 1/10th the number of tables X# of years down the road when the boom totally dies. Someone isn't going to own a house or a car with untaxed 1/2 NL poker winnings, nor are they going to be a grown adult with a family doing it. As evidence by this site, the only people claiming to attempt it are young kids living at home who vanish from posting about it.

4) I've played many different venues over a number of years, in a heavily populated area, so my sample size for this discussion does matter. This convo has come up in real life with other players I spend time around and they say the same thing. I can't say that you didn't meet those handful of guys, but they may be exaggerating, or be people who clearly won't be doing it for any length of time. If the best example anyone can give is ONE person who has done it for FOUR years during a boom, that pretty much confirms my thought process.
2outsNoProb, you're flat out wrong when you assume no one is playing 1/2 for a living. We can all agree there are 1/2 players who beat the game for 9-10 BB/hr. And we know there are hardworking people in this country earning less than that while busting their ass. Now, are ALL 1/2 players going to move up to 2/5 and higher? They might try, but some will get knocked back down to 1/2, a level where they feel comfortable and can beat the game handily.

2) 1500 hours, for anyone without another job, is really not asking a whole lot. This is being done on a regular basis by hundreds of 1/2 grinders.

3) you're assuming, and you're wrong

4) empethy is not alone. I play for a living, mostly 2/5 and 5/10, but just being in the card room on a regular basis, I meet 1/2 grinders, usually when they're taking shots at 2/5. I personally know several players who currently play 1/2 for a living. No, they're not getting rich, but they're making $18-24/hr, and they're not working a real job.
Midnight Cowboy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-09-2012, 09:10 AM   #2275
kekedarius
adept
 
kekedarius's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: breakin rocks eatin fish
Posts: 868
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Grunch: IMO your roll should be about double your largest possible downswing if you wanna be serious about about being pro or w/e. If you have high confidence that you are a 8+ bb longterm winner your downswings will be few and far between. You can maintain a 4000bb roll to have 0% RoR and never dip very far below 2000bb, which is still plenty to comfortably rebuild.

Last edited by kekedarius; 09-09-2012 at 09:15 AM.
kekedarius is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:21 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive