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Old 12-11-2018, 02:59 AM   #22701
CoranMoran
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Does the game play deep?
Most people buy in for $200-$300
The player in question always buys in for the max:$400

Quote:
Straddles?
Yes. Straddles are common from UTG and BTN.
Straddles at 1-2 must be $5

Quote:
Shorthanded?
No. Tables are alost always full with 9 players

Quote:
Is it the biggest game in the room/area?
Yes. 1-2 is the biggest game in this card room.
There are occasional 2-5 games around the city on certain days of the week.

Quote:
1000 hrs aint that long.
I hear people claim that the “sample size is too small” no matter how many hours have been played.
1000 hours represents an entire year’s worth of play from this regular.
That’s 20 hours a week every week for the whole year.
That’s essentially a 2nd job.
I'm beginning to think that there is no sample size large enough for people to ever say “Yeah, that is big enough to prove something.”

Thanks for the feedback, guys.

--cm



Yeah, it's not likely but it's obviously possible if he heaters like crazy
So people really run heaters for an entire year?
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Old 12-11-2018, 04:59 AM   #22702
KatoKrazy
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by CoranMoran View Post
Most people buy in for $200-$300
The player in question always buys in for the max:$400


Yes. Straddles are common from UTG and BTN.
Straddles at 1-2 must be $5


No. Tables are alost always full with 9 players


Yes. 1-2 is the biggest game in this card room.
There are occasional 2-5 games around the city on certain days of the week.


I hear people claim that the “sample size is too small” no matter how many hours have been played.
1000 hours represents an entire year’s worth of play from this regular.
That’s 20 hours a week every week for the whole year.
That’s essentially a 2nd job.
I'm beginning to think that there is no sample size large enough for people to ever say “Yeah, that is big enough to prove something.”

Thanks for the feedback, guys.

--cm



Yeah, it's not likely but it's obviously possible if he heaters like crazy
So people really run heaters for an entire year?
People run heaters for MUCH longer than that. You don't get many hands in live poker.
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Old 12-11-2018, 04:59 AM   #22703
onguard
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How many make or break your session pots you think you play in a typical 20 hour week? Just running real good in those makes a HUGE difference. Always be on the right side of set over set. Hit all those huge combo draws on the draw vs set vs over-pair 1000 bb pots. It happens. Hell people have year long live in the casino dice and baccarrat heaters (famously so in some cases). You think a guy playing 200bb deep no rake entry level live poker can't turn a $35 true win rate (basically the established 10bb crusher wr plus 100% rakeback compared to most people's stats...and that might be guessing low imo) into a $55 result when things break his way in the right spots for a half time year of live poker? Heck one deck smacked you in the face with a tilter on unlimited rebuys session in a game that tends to play deep can do some crazy things to your results in a sample as long as that.
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Old 12-11-2018, 07:13 AM   #22704
Shai Hulud
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Ugh ... no flop, no drop most places. Preflop rake is cancer.
Most places? Where outside of Vegas? I find the rake in Florida rather depressing.
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Old 12-11-2018, 07:28 AM   #22705
wj294
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Everywhere in the UK has no flop no drop afaik.
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Old 12-11-2018, 07:46 AM   #22706
Shai Hulud
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by CoranMoran View Post
I hear people claim that the “sample size is too small” no matter how many hours have been played.
1000 hours represents an entire year’s worth of play from this regular.
That’s 20 hours a week every week for the whole year.
That’s essentially a 2nd job.
I'm beginning to think that there is no sample size large enough for people to ever say “Yeah, that is big enough to prove something.”

Thanks for the feedback, guys.

--cm



Yeah, it's not likely but it's obviously possible if he heaters like crazy
So people really run heaters for an entire year?
It's not that 1000 hours isn't a long time. It is. It's just not a lot of hands, about 25k to 30k.

To put things in perspective, when I played online I I'd play 100k+ hands most weeks. I lost my databases so I'm going off memory but... One minute online was roughly equivalent to an hour or two live, depending how many tables I was playing. And if I looked at my results from week to week playing the same games they could look very different. Sometimes super good, sometimes losing, sometimes breaking even for weeks. Which would have been the equivalent of breaking even for more than a lifetime of live play.

Granted...my edge online mass tabling was much smaller, but as with any random variable, some people are going to find themselves on the far extremes with their results being several standard deviations away from expectation.

Keep in mind the unusual cases you hear about, people with insane winrates, or good players losing over very long periods, these are the statistical outliers. About one in every three hundred players will have extreme results (where I'm defining extreme as three or more SDs from their expected value). And there is an observation selection bias where we are more likely to hear about the outliers, and the more extreme their results, the more likely we hear about them.
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Old 12-11-2018, 08:32 AM   #22707
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It doesnt matter if 1k hours is an entire year of playing live. It is about the amount of hands you get to play in this time.
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Old 12-11-2018, 11:59 AM   #22708
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Ugh ... no flop, no drop most places. Preflop rake is cancer.
+1

A huge part of my recent Super Nit strategy is taking down big pots preflop (i.e. limp/reraise) with one of the main benefits being avoiding the massive rake.

GcluelessrakenoobG
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Old 12-11-2018, 11:59 AM   #22709
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I would not argue that online we see a lot more hands than live, there is no argument to that. But I would argue that online players over value that fact.
Because in reality, we don't play , for example, 100 Thousand hands,we're dealt 100 Thousand hands. There's a difference.
When you're multitabling, you playing, the good online players at least, more or less a robotic, button pushing game.
You're not sitting there contemplating every hand you're dealt. You're auto folding the vast majority.
So, stop that. Because you play online, you haven't accumulated that big of a volume edge as you think.
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Old 12-11-2018, 12:04 PM   #22710
gobbledygeek
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Originally Posted by CoranMoran View Post
So people really run heaters for an entire year?
For me 1000 hours would be closer to 2 years of recreational play.

In 94 hours (after I've reached 1000 hours of my recent Super Nit strategy) I'm going to post some of my giraffes. All the giraffes will be >= 1000 hour sample sizes, with the best one being 3x better (3x!!!!) than the worst one (and everything in-between in what is overall a very low variance steady-as-she-goes upward climb).

Glol@lifetimelivepokersamplesizes,imoG
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Old 12-11-2018, 12:12 PM   #22711
Shai Hulud
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Nepeeme2008 View Post
I would not argue that online we see a lot more hands than live, there is no argument to that. But I would argue that online players over value that fact.
Because in reality, we don't play , for example, 100 Thousand hands,we're dealt 100 Thousand hands. There's a difference.
When you're multitabling, you playing, the good online players at least, more or less a robotic, button pushing game.
You're not sitting there contemplating every hand you're dealt. You're auto folding the vast majority.
So, stop that. Because you play online, you haven't accumulated that big of a volume edge as you think.
We are talking about variance and random variables. It doesn't matter if we are comparing the results of a literal bot making decisions in microseconds to someone making decisions over several minutes. If the sample mean and standard deviation are the same over the same sample size measured in hands, that is all that matters.
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Old 12-11-2018, 12:13 PM   #22712
wj294
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Nep, by that logic we probably only play 2/3 hands p/h and are auto folding the rest so that logic doesn't really make sense.
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Old 12-11-2018, 12:40 PM   #22713
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No, I'm not speaking about variance. I'm not trying to argue against that.
I don't think anyone really knows exactly what sample size is a definitive indicator of true variance.
Maybe I don't really know my own point my self.
I guess I was complaining about, not arguing, is how internet players constantly, seemingly belittle live player's experience as far as volume is concerned.
It all goes back to when the old high stakes poker was televised and one of the younger internet guys, I don't remember who it was, was claiming he had gained a lot more experience than Doyle in a few years of playing online. I thought that was pretty ridiculous, even if he was dealt a lot more hands online.
If Brunson played poker for 50 years, 6 days a week, with the conservative estimate of 8 hours a day(30 hands an hour), he'd have played 3 and a half million hands in his lifetime.
I think, after a certain count, volume becomes irrelevant anyway.
I don't know exactly what that number is but it is at some point.
You can't argue with me that because you've seen 3million hands and I've maybe only seen a million, that that really makes a difference.
Didn't intend to ruffle any feathers, just like a good conversation.
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Old 12-11-2018, 01:35 PM   #22714
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Experience level is not a winrates bankroll or finances discussion. The variance part is, but the "how experienced are different types of players" stuff is a derail ITT. If you want to continue that discussion, please take it to the chat thread or PMs.
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Old 12-11-2018, 01:55 PM   #22715
Nepeeme2008
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Experience level is not a winrates bankroll or finances discussion. The variance part is, but the "how experienced are different types of players" stuff is a derail ITT. If you want to continue that discussion, please take it to the chat thread or PMs.
Oops. Ok, apologies
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Old 12-11-2018, 02:15 PM   #22716
Garick
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Not trying to shut you down. It's just that this thread is constantly getting derailed, so we keep a pretty tight "keep it on topic" leash on it. It's a fine discussion for the Poker Theory or Psych forum, or in a low-content thread in this forum.
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Old 12-11-2018, 02:46 PM   #22717
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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
Most places? Where outside of Vegas? I find the rake in Florida rather depressing.
Detroit, AC, FL, basically everywhere I can think of. Even California is no-flop no-drop, although they pull WAY too much OTF itself.
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Old 12-11-2018, 04:52 PM   #22718
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Detroit, AC, FL, basically everywhere I can think of. Even California is no-flop no-drop, although they pull WAY too much OTF itself.
The St. Louis, MO area is also no flop, no drop.
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Old 12-11-2018, 05:06 PM   #22719
paulhamr
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I played in a poker room in, I believe Oklahoma, where as soon as you posted, they would take the small blind. So you couldn't even chop the blinds without a rake being taken.
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Old 12-11-2018, 05:35 PM   #22720
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
I've had sunrun and brutal "nothing holds or works" downswings that lasted 500 hours. So yea, in a rake free game I think you could hit $55/hr if you play well and run well for 1000 hours. I don't expect it's sustainable unless the game is *really* deep ($500-800 average) and plays more like a $2/5 game, where an 11 BB/hr rate is high but reasonably possible.
Thank you for posting this regarding 500 hour downswings. Although I have not reached a 500 hour downswing (yet) it sure does feel like it. I guess it's "good" to know I'm not the only one. For the time being I will continue plugging away, reading more on the "Live Low-stakes NL" thread, but the thought of 100% quitting poker has crossed my mind, more so recently. I hate being a quitter when I know that I have the mental capability to be a winner, but the bankroll has taken a significant hit because of my downswing. And I wont even get into the mental aspect of taking these bad beats in hands w/big pots. But anyway, thanks again.
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Old 12-11-2018, 06:11 PM   #22721
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Speaking to my last post, I just looked at my stats and over 219 hours in cash games, I've lost roughly 30% of my bankroll. The only thing that makes this better is when I add in my tournament play over that same time period, my losses go down to about 8.5% of my bankroll. So my tournament play is getting me $46.47/hr but over a much smaller sample size.

I know beating the rake at small Vegas tournaments is damn near impossible from a statistical standpoint. I'm talking about tournaments such as the $80-$130 entries at Orleans and like the $100 @ MGM and the $140 @ Wynn.

However, I much more enjoy playing in tournaments and think my game is more suited for this including mixed game tournaments than grinding it out at 1/2 NL cash games. I am almost to the point where I dread playing 1/2 NL, which probably is partly because I'm on this big downswing. And just from my 1st hand experiences, generally speaking the competition is softer in these tournaments. The obvious problem is not only beating the rake, but the huge variance when compared w/ cash games. I realize you can go a LONG time without cashing in tournaments. Then again I think "would I be down 30% of my bankroll if instead of playing cash I used that money to play in tournaments". I tend to think not.

My question is this. Should I make the plunge into playing these tournaments strictly, should I just stick with 1/2 NL, or should I mix it up, mainly playing 1/2 NL but mixing in some tournaments? Also, I DO enjoy playing 1/2 PLO (I'm a noob), but I'm not sure of the bankroll I should have playing this game like at Aria.

I probably should have asked this question when my bankroll was larger. My basic question is do I go with what I enjoy doing and maybe it's not the best choice logically from a rake beating perspective, or do I continue to grind it out at 1/2 NL, even though I dread it right now (I'm sure a lot of that has to do with the losing streak I'm currently on)?

My goal when starting 1/2 NL full time in April 2018 was to eventually move up to 2/5 NL by the end of 2018. Obviously that is not going to happen since my bankroll has gone in the opposite direction and I have not played nearly well enough to do so.

So full disclosure I have been trying to make this my sole source of income, my bankroll is decreasing, and I am beginning to feel that I should just give up and get a 9 to 5 job. In other words to face reality that I suck at poker. I still have plenty of living expense money and my roll isnt completely decimated, but I have set limits on how far I'm willing to take this money wise so I have living expenses for enough time to find a regular job.

Any advice would be appreciated. Thanks.

Last edited by thedude404; 12-11-2018 at 06:21 PM.
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Old 12-11-2018, 06:30 PM   #22722
squid face
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Dear The Dude,
It sounds to me like you have almost already made your decision. As you are currently seeing the gamboolin lifestyle is incredibly isolating and lonely. When you are in the midst of a nasty downswing it seems like you are the only person in the world that runs this bad. The truth is this feeling never goes away - cuz the swings are out there and they will happen.

If you really "love poker" play it part time as a side income. Otherwise get all the way out. The glass ceiling on poker is constantly getting lower and thicker. If you are struggling with 1/2 after this much time you have some serious leaks.

You are not a quitter if you stop trying to be a full time pro. You have simply seen the light that there are far better ways to make a living rather than dealing with the energy suck that is the casino environment, and the never ending lonely road that is the professional poker player.

If you are dreading playing 1/2 now after only being on the scene for under a year imagine how you are going to feel after 5, 10, or 20 years.

Very few people last more than a few years trying to be a pro. And those that do last seem to always be trying to find a way out (myself included). That should be evidence enough to hang it up.

good luck and best wishes
skwid
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Old 12-11-2018, 07:03 PM   #22723
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

+1 to Squiddy

As a purely recreational player myself, I don't see why anyone wouldn't just keep poker as a fun hobby (like any hobby) that may (or may not) make some small side income, while having a "normal" job (whatever that is to you) to earn your actual living.

Curious as to what kinda downswing you are on / what 30% of your BR actually is? It's also likely not going to get any easier, and there's a good chance you'll eventually encounter another downswing that makes this downswing look lol (are you prepared for that?).

GgoodluckG
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Old 12-11-2018, 07:48 PM   #22724
johnny_on_the_spot
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by CoranMoran View Post
Most people buy in for $200-$300
The player in question always buys in for the max:$400


Yes. Straddles are common from UTG and BTN.
Straddles at 1-2 must be $5


No. Tables are alost always full with 9 players


Yes. 1-2 is the biggest game in this card room.
There are occasional 2-5 games around the city on certain days of the week.


I hear people claim that the “sample size is too small” no matter how many hours have been played.
1000 hours represents an entire year’s worth of play from this regular.
That’s 20 hours a week every week for the whole year.
That’s essentially a 2nd job.
I'm beginning to think that there is no sample size large enough for people to ever say “Yeah, that is big enough to prove something.”

Thanks for the feedback, guys.

--cm



Yeah, it's not likely but it's obviously possible if he heaters like crazy
So people really run heaters for an entire year?
this was posted in another thread, i think it answers your question

Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10 View Post
In case anyone is wondering how long and how high up someone can sun run, I believe this is the longest and highest streak.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archie_Karas
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Old 12-11-2018, 09:16 PM   #22725
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by CoranMoran View Post
I was talking Win Rates with some guys at the local cardroom. And one player made a claim that the rest of us did not believe. So we made a wager.
There is no way to prove if his claim is fact or fiction.
So we decided to bet whether or not the "average poker player" would believe that his win rate was reasonably possible.

2018
Level: 1-2
Total Hours: 1052
Win Rate: $55


Notes:
This is Oregon, so there is no rake
This win rate does not include money spent on tips or the daily door fee.

Given the amount of hours he claims to have put in this year, do you believe that his win rate is believable?

Personally, I find it difficult to imagine that even a high-stakes pro who was stepping down from nose bleeds for a year winning over 27 bbs per hour.

What do you think?
I know you do not know the player in question, but is it reasonably possibly for anyone to win $55 an hour at 1-2?

Please advise
Your answers will determine who wins the bet.

--CM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoranMoran View Post
Most people buy in for $200-$300
The player in question always buys in for the max:$400


Yes. Straddles are common from UTG and BTN.
Straddles at 1-2 must be $5


No. Tables are alost always full with 9 players


Yes. 1-2 is the biggest game in this card room.
There are occasional 2-5 games around the city on certain days of the week.
With these numbers: Yes this winrate is believable
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