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Old 12-04-2018, 01:24 PM   #22676
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

86 hours is nothing. Completely meaningless sample.

However ... I would agree with the argument that the buy in cap, or more precisely the average stack size has easily as much to do with our winrate as the blind structure does.
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Old 12-04-2018, 02:39 PM   #22677
Shai Hulud
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by SiegfriedV View Post
I have recently begun playing in a Northern California 2-3-5 game. I would prefer not to say where for reasons I hope are obvious.

I have kept careful records. I have played 86 hours in this game and netted $7,781, working out to an astonishing 18.1 big blinds/hour.

My variance per hour is 5626.2 bb^2/hour (standard deviation 75.01 bb/sqrt(hr)), and the corresponding standard error in my win rate is 8.1 bb/hr.

On the one hand, this sample size is tiny: it is only about 2,500 hands, about five percent of what conventional wisdom says is needed to get a decent measure of win rate.

On the other hand, my observed win rate is more than two sigmas above breakeven. I might not be truly pulling $90/hour out of this game, but my true win rate is likely to be somewhere in that ballpark, i.e. somewhere between $50/hr and $130/hr.

Is bb/hr even the right measure for reasonable win rates in NL games? For this particular game, the buy-in cap is $1000, i.e., 200bb rather than the online standard of 100bb. If our results are dominated by small pots (i.e., blind steals and flop c-bets) then the buy-in size shouldn't matter; but if big pots are an important part of our results then the buy-in size is critical. This 2-3-5 game would play something like twice as big as the Commerce 5-5, because the Commerce game's buy-in cap is half of this one.

Should we be thinking about win rates in terms of buy-ins/hour rather than big blinds/hour?

Here's a sanity check about these win rate and variance numbers: my spreadsheet includes an estimate of bankroll requirement for this game, 9/4 * win rate / variance (cribbed from MM's Gambling Theory and Other Topics). At my current observed win rate and variance, my required bankroll for this game is $3,500, i.e. three and a half buy-ins. No one in their right mind would want to play this game with this small a roll. I certainly am not doing so.
You're on a heater, I've had 100-hour periods where I win 40BB/hr, it's just unsustainable. This was also in a 200BB 2/5 game. Also have lost ~10k at 2/5 twice. I think you have a high risk of ruin unless you are super disciplined and nitty. I've lost 3k in one session about...four times. I'm sure I would have lost 3.5k in one session except I only bring 3k.

Also doing variance calcs with small sample sizes is misleading because your game conditions are non-constant, meaning winrate is only approximated by the normal distribution. I had 99% confidence contervals saying I win more than 15/hr but reality has brought that down to 12ish. It's hard to appreciate just how good you're running if you aren't doing things like constantly coolering people, which in my heater I wasn't, I was just noticeably dodging runbad for an unusually long period. If I got it in with a set vs a flush draw or OP vs smaller OP I'd hold up more than I should, wasn't having people spiking bigger sets OTR or any of the other nonsense I'm experiencing lately.

GLGL

Last edited by Shai Hulud; 12-04-2018 at 02:44 PM.
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Old 12-04-2018, 02:59 PM   #22678
Dacriz
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Old 12-08-2018, 10:47 AM   #22679
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Do you guys include high hand prizes and rakeback in your poker income app to determine win rate? Right now I don’t bc I wanna find out my win rate from just play but would like to see if people include this in their win rate statistics.
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Old 12-08-2018, 10:53 AM   #22680
MikeStarr
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
Do you guys include high hand prizes and rakeback in your poker income app to determine win rate? Right now I don’t bc I wanna find out my win rate from just play but would like to see if people include this in their win rate statistics.
This has been asked here many times. Most include normal high hand bonuses like $400 because you are paying $2 out of every pot you win to pay for that promo. You're just getting your own money back. Some dont include it all anyway though.

Nobody should be including large bonuses like bad beat jackpots in their hourly win rates for obvious reasons.

I think most people also dont include any rake back or hourly comp money because its mostly used for food and things like that. There are very few places where you get cash for comps and its not much money anyway.
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Old 12-08-2018, 06:26 PM   #22681
Shai Hulud
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
Do you guys include high hand prizes and rakeback in your poker income app to determine win rate? Right now I don’t bc I wanna find out my win rate from just play but would like to see if people include this in their win rate statistics.
Like Mike said typically people include high hands and perhaps hourly promos but not huge things like BBJs.

If you use Poker Bankroll Tracker you can add wins under the category "Jackpot/Bonus" and that way you can easily track both winrates, what you make with and what you make without the bonuses. It's probably not a huge difference unless you are playing 1/2 or maybe 2/4 limit. In my 2/5 games the bonuses just add ~ 3 dollars an hour.
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Old 12-08-2018, 06:55 PM   #22682
Jkpoker10
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
Like Mike said typically people include high hands and perhaps hourly promos but not huge things like BBJs.

If you use Poker Bankroll Tracker you can add wins under the category "Jackpot/Bonus" and that way you can easily track both winrates, what you make with and what you make without the bonuses. It's probably not a huge difference unless you are playing 1/2 or maybe 2/4 limit. In my 2/5 games the bonuses just add ~ 3 dollars an hour.
Thanks! I feel I should prolly include bc money is taken out of many winning pots to fund the high hands. I’ve made 640 in promos and rakeback while only making like 580ish so it’s a big part of my win rate. I will include in jackpot section to be able to separate and see real win rate omitting this info
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Old 12-10-2018, 04:51 AM   #22683
CoranMoran
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Fact or Fiction?

I was talking Win Rates with some guys at the local cardroom. And one player made a claim that the rest of us did not believe. So we made a wager.
There is no way to prove if his claim is fact or fiction.
So we decided to bet whether or not the "average poker player" would believe that his win rate was reasonably possible.

2018
Level: 1-2
Total Hours: 1052
Win Rate: $55


Notes:
This is Oregon, so there is no rake
This win rate does not include money spent on tips or the daily door fee.

Given the amount of hours he claims to have put in this year, do you believe that his win rate is believable?

Personally, I find it difficult to imagine that even a high-stakes pro who was stepping down from nose bleeds for a year winning over 27 bbs per hour.

What do you think?
I know you do not know the player in question, but is it reasonably possibly for anyone to win $55 an hour at 1-2?

Please advise
Your answers will determine who wins the bet.

--CM
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Old 12-10-2018, 06:19 AM   #22684
onguard
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Re: Fact or Fiction?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CoranMoran View Post
I was talking Win Rates with some guys at the local cardroom. And one player made a claim that the rest of us did not believe. So we made a wager.
There is no way to prove if his claim is fact or fiction.
So we decided to bet whether or not the "average poker player" would believe that his win rate was reasonably possible.

2018
Level: 1-2
Total Hours: 1052
Win Rate: $55


Notes:
This is Oregon, so there is no rake
This win rate does not include money spent on tips or the daily door fee.

Given the amount of hours he claims to have put in this year, do you believe that his win rate is believable?

Personally, I find it difficult to imagine that even a high-stakes pro who was stepping down from nose bleeds for a year winning over 27 bbs per hour.

What do you think?
I know you do not know the player in question, but is it reasonably possibly for anyone to win $55 an hour at 1-2?

Please advise
Your answers will determine who wins the bet.

--CM
Not having/counting rake and tips is adding $15+/hr easy, quite a bit more in some environments. Does the game play deep? Straddles? Shorthanded? Is it the biggest game in the room/area?

1000 hrs aint that long. Run good is a thing. No rake is awesome. If the question is could it be done, yeah you're losing this one of course it could.
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Old 12-10-2018, 06:20 AM   #22685
wj294
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yeah, it's not likely but it's obviously possible if he heaters like crazy and game conditions are good.
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Old 12-10-2018, 08:12 AM   #22686
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Is it possible? Yes, I suppose so. Is it likely that he's actually done it without including a BBJ in his stats? No, I seriously doubt it.

I've played those games, they are good, but not that good. They didn't play particularly deep when I was visiting. The no rake thing is huge, as is the not including what he spent on tips, but even if we give him 7BBs an hour for those effects, he's running way above what I would guess is the max long term winrate in that game.
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Old 12-10-2018, 08:13 AM   #22687
MikeStarr
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Since you are soliciting answers from the "average poker player", I think you are asking in the wrong place. The average poker player is a losing player.

IMO, with no rake or tips, the answer is Yes it can be done by a top player, but I think you win the bet because the "average poker player" will not believe it can be done since they cant do it and probably don't know anyone who could do it.
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Old 12-10-2018, 11:46 AM   #22688
SUYAPA
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Re: Fact or Fiction?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CoranMoran View Post
I was talking Win Rates with some guys at the local cardroom. And one player made a claim that the rest of us did not believe. So we made a wager.
There is no way to prove if his claim is fact or fiction.
So we decided to bet whether or not the "average poker player" would believe that his win rate was reasonably possible.

2018
Level: 1-2
Total Hours: 1052
Win Rate: $55


Notes:
This is Oregon, so there is no rake
This win rate does not include money spent on tips or the daily door fee.

Given the amount of hours he claims to have put in this year, do you believe that his win rate is believable?

Personally, I find it difficult to imagine that even a high-stakes pro who was stepping down from nose bleeds for a year winning over 27 bbs per hour.

What do you think?
I know you do not know the player in question, but is it reasonably possibly for anyone to win $55 an hour at 1-2?

Please advise
Your answers will determine who wins the bet.

--CM

He played 25k-30k hands in the 1k hours. In online poker you can easily have a 30k hands upswing where you run like god. It´s hard to believe for live poker but everything is possible when you run extremely hot. See Fedor Holz lol.

Since mid april i´ve played 608,5 hours mainly 1/2. A few 1/3 sessions and 3 or 4 plo 2/2 sessions in there. Im winning 22,97€/h including tips, rake and bbj. I tip 1€ almost every hand i win. Sometimes nothing if it is a tiny pot and sometimes 2€ if it is a big pot.
I read in a lot of forums that around 20/h is a good and sustainable winrate.

My answer is that it isn´t possible to achieve a winrate of 55/h at 1/2 in the longrun. In the shortrun YES, everything is possible.
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Old 12-10-2018, 01:28 PM   #22689
KatoKrazy
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Definitely possible he sun runned that in a 1k hour period -- it also definitely is way above his true long term winrate.
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Old 12-10-2018, 01:34 PM   #22690
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've had sunrun and brutal "nothing holds or works" downswings that lasted 500 hours. So yea, in a rake free game I think you could hit $55/hr if you play well and run well for 1000 hours. I don't expect it's sustainable unless the game is *really* deep ($500-800 average) and plays more like a $2/5 game, where an 11 BB/hr rate is high but reasonably possible.
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Old 12-10-2018, 01:34 PM   #22691
Shai Hulud
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Re: Fact or Fiction?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CoranMoran View Post
I was talking Win Rates with some guys at the local cardroom. And one player made a claim that the rest of us did not believe. So we made a wager.
There is no way to prove if his claim is fact or fiction.
So we decided to bet whether or not the "average poker player" would believe that his win rate was reasonably possible.

2018
Level: 1-2
Total Hours: 1052
Win Rate: $55


Notes:
This is Oregon, so there is no rake
This win rate does not include money spent on tips or the daily door fee.

Given the amount of hours he claims to have put in this year, do you believe that his win rate is believable?

Personally, I find it difficult to imagine that even a high-stakes pro who was stepping down from nose bleeds for a year winning over 27 bbs per hour.

What do you think?
I know you do not know the player in question, but is it reasonably possibly for anyone to win $55 an hour at 1-2?

Please advise
Your answers will determine who wins the bet.

--CM
Where in Oregon? I lived there a few years and there were a couple Indian casinos that spread NL and a handful of card rooms. All the games I saw seemed pretty reg infested and they were raked. How does a card room or casino have no rake? If this is some home game with zero rake and tips that adds, compared to my games, almost 10BB/hr. And home games are soft. So is it possible he makes $35/hour? Yeah, over 1000 hours if he played well and ran good sure.
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Old 12-10-2018, 02:13 PM   #22692
LordRiverRat
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How much do you guys think a 10% $5 max rake affects your hourly?
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Old 12-10-2018, 02:13 PM   #22693
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

@ CoranMoran

Given the small 1000 hour sample size and the fact that he could easily be not including ~$20/hr in tips/rake, I
certainly wouldn't say it's definitely not possible.

Course, I wouldn't trust anything anyone says in a poker room either. He'd have to start showing me some spreadsheets before I even began taking him seriously.

GcluelesswinratesnoobG
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Old 12-10-2018, 02:20 PM   #22694
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
How much do you guys think a 10% $5 max rake affects your hourly?
Our 1/3 NL game used to have a 10% $5 maximum (it's now up to $8).

If you guesstimate 30 hands per hour with the majority of pots getting to $50 (which the majority of our 1/3 NL pots likely do), say like even 90% pots reach maximum and the other 10% are taken down preflop (no rake), that's $5 * 30 * 0.90 = $135 per hour coming off the table. At a 10 handed table of everyone playing the exact same way, everyone's share would be about $13.50 an hour or so. Course the tighter players aren't involved in as many pots, but then when they stack someone that someone's stack has been obliterated by rake. Or even just guessing like on average $4 comes off per hand that would be $4 * 30 = $120/hr, so $12/hr each. I'd guess somewhere in that ballpark.

GaddingonBBJandtipsitbecomesevenmoredepressingG
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Old 12-10-2018, 02:21 PM   #22695
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
How does a card room or casino have no rake?
Oregon card rooms aren't allowed to rake. They get all of their revenue from the "cover charge" for coming in for the day. CM's acquaintance is paying that, but it's not included in his records. It's really reasonable, too, as they don't also have hourly seating fees like the Texas card rooms do.
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Old 12-10-2018, 04:50 PM   #22696
stlows
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Do you have any poker tracker app feature that you would like to have and doesnt find in your current app?
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Old 12-10-2018, 05:18 PM   #22697
onguard
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
How much do you guys think a 10% $5 max rake affects your hourly?
$7/down is on the low end of standard for places that charge time. Most people think time charge is significantly better than pot rake. That's probably a decent baseline to start at.
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Old 12-10-2018, 09:06 PM   #22698
crsseyed
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Re: Fact or Fiction?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CoranMoran View Post
I was talking Win Rates with some guys at the local cardroom. And one player made a claim that the rest of us did not believe. So we made a wager.
There is no way to prove if his claim is fact or fiction.
So we decided to bet whether or not the "average poker player" would believe that his win rate was reasonably possible.

2018
Level: 1-2
Total Hours: 1052
Win Rate: $55


Notes:
This is Oregon, so there is no rake
This win rate does not include money spent on tips or the daily door fee.

Given the amount of hours he claims to have put in this year, do you believe that his win rate is believable?

Personally, I find it difficult to imagine that even a high-stakes pro who was stepping down from nose bleeds for a year winning over 27 bbs per hour.

What do you think?
I know you do not know the player in question, but is it reasonably possibly for anyone to win $55 an hour at 1-2?

Please advise
Your answers will determine who wins the bet.

--CM
Depends on what max buyin is.......
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Old 12-10-2018, 10:58 PM   #22699
Shai Hulud
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Oregon card rooms aren't allowed to rake. They get all of their revenue from the "cover charge" for coming in for the day. CM's acquaintance is paying that, but it's not included in his records. It's really reasonable, too, as they don't also have hourly seating fees like the Texas card rooms do.
When I lived in Eugene there were card rooms that charged hourly rake. I don't recall the amount though as I only went a few times. This was eight or nine years ago though.

@LRR

Depends what they rake but basically figure out the average rake per pot, multiply by hands per hour, and divide by average number of players.

Where I play it is 2 + 10% cap 5 which most pots reach in a 2/5 game when it isn't folded pre. They rake pre anyway but it's 2 if it's a raise and the blinds fold. If it goes 25 25 100 fold they rake 7. We are also frequently effectively 6 or 7 handed in late night games due to people sitting out and empty seats. There is a reduction at 6 handed but it has to be actually 6 handed which is rare.

So I figure average 5.5 dollars a hand, 30 hands per hour, average 7.5 players per table, for 5.5*30/7.5 = 22 dollars an hour. I think it is even worse as I am usually one of the looser players at the table. Add tips, ballpark 25 dollars an hour.

I gotta move up to 5/T where it's 14 dollars an hour time rake. Keep running horrific every time I shot take.
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Old 12-10-2018, 11:09 PM   #22700
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ugh ... no flop, no drop most places. Preflop rake is cancer.
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