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Old 11-28-2018, 03:35 PM   #22651
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Really, aside from giving a hint about how you play, the only effect of SD is that higher ones have greater swings, which means a higher risk-of-ruin if playing under-rolled and a wider confidence interval between observed results and "true" winrate.

There's nothing inherently bad about that, though.
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Old 11-28-2018, 05:34 PM   #22652
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Personally, I wouldn't be too concerned about your SD, but that's me. I also wouldn't be too concerned about any style you're playing so long as you think it's a decent one for your game and you're winning. Changing your game just to satisfy a SD or "TAG" or whatever requirement is meh if what you're doing is working in your conditions, imo.

Lately during my Super Nit method I've been rocking an almost 0% raising range from anything up to (and even sometimes including) CO/Button, the very definition of "weak tight". Rocking a 7.9 bb/hr winrate this year using this method (yes, I had a good session yesterday to bump it up a bit). Do what works, and be suspect of people telling you otherwise (especially if they're not backing up what they're saying).

Gweaktight,justlikeallthegoodpokerbooksrecommendG
Not raising preflop has nothing to do with being weak tight.
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Old 11-28-2018, 05:59 PM   #22653
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Really, aside from giving a hint about how you play, the only effect of SD is that higher ones have greater swings, which means a higher risk-of-ruin if playing under-rolled and a wider confidence interval between observed results and "true" winrate.

There's nothing inherently bad about that, though.
Aight thx
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Old 11-30-2018, 11:10 AM   #22654
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how does one import an image without having to provide a url?
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Old 11-30-2018, 11:52 AM   #22655
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One does not.

You have to upload your image to the internet in order to display it here, I'm afraid.
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Old 11-30-2018, 11:56 AM   #22656
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One does not.

You have to upload your image to the internet in order to display it here, I'm afraid.
LOL, so maybe upload to google docs? Will that work?
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Old 11-30-2018, 12:24 PM   #22657
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I usually use tinypic.com.
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Old 11-30-2018, 12:56 PM   #22658
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After 440 hours of play at mostly 1-2 NL:

Profit of 9.3BB per hour


SD of 83 BB per hour

I have no idea what that's telling me, since I don't exactly know what standard deviation is...…….
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Old 11-30-2018, 01:03 PM   #22659
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Can anyone comment on the above stats are these healthy numbers? I seem to be hitting a plateau i need to break but i'm very concerned about the future here I need to break past this 3k mark. I have some leaks in my game that I never buyin for more than $150 and constantly playing short stacked.

Cold deck for me recently with hands like AK vs AQ KQ ver K8. all in pre some bad beats and the occasional bad plays which fortunately for me aren't too expensive and often.
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Old 11-30-2018, 01:07 PM   #22660
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$69 per session....nice.
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Old 11-30-2018, 01:32 PM   #22661
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Originally Posted by Mr.Shadow View Post



Can anyone comment on the above stats are these healthy numbers? I seem to be hitting a plateau i need to break but i'm very concerned about the future here I need to break past this 3k mark. I have some leaks in my game that I never buyin for more than $150 and constantly playing short stacked.

Cold deck for me recently with hands like AK vs AQ KQ ver K8. all in pre some bad beats and the occasional bad plays which fortunately for me aren't too expensive and often.
Looks like you generally lose. Which means your wins are quite large. Normally not a recipe for success.

Short stacking is not my forte. But I would start to post a few hands. See if you can find leaks. With 30% win rate I doubt your a longterm winner.
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Old 11-30-2018, 01:42 PM   #22662
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After 440 hours of play at mostly 1-2 NL:

Profit of 9.3BB per hour


SD of 83 BB per hour

I have no idea what that's telling me, since I don't exactly know what standard deviation is...…….
Read the last 25 posts or so. We've been discussing it. Your SD is right in the normal range of what folks report ITT. Not hugely swingy or particularly nitty.
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Old 11-30-2018, 03:13 PM   #22663
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Looks like you generally lose. Which means your wins are quite large. Normally not a recipe for success.

Short stacking is not my forte. But I would start to post a few hands. See if you can find leaks. With 30% win rate I doubt your a longterm winner.
out of my 33 sessions how often should i be winning here? Overall I'm playing a very TAG style. Unfortunately I only bring 1 shortstack buyin per session normally. As you can see in the chart has initially has worked for me so i continued that trend. I bring $120-$150 if i lose it I walk. Too many times though i get nickel and dimed down to a really short stack and I'm forced to race.

some leaks;

i dont have example hands but in general.............

I remember once i left $500 on the table. i should have called a no brainer in a possible $1000 pot agains a bluffy asian dude. 2-3 times i made very poor tilty mistakes which cost me around maybe $300 or so, but i have made some very difficult folds that were usually correct(they showed) and avoided some coolers.


Are these stats indicative of a TAG style?

Aren't small loses plus Big wins what we want to see?

Finally, i'm looking at some graphs in previous posts and i do see people winning many many times in a row unlike my graph where on average im winning every few games and at first every other. maybe it's because of the short stacking?

need some more opinions.
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Old 11-30-2018, 03:24 PM   #22664
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It sounds like your issue is more of a bankroll problem than a playing style problem. If you can afford it, you should bring 3 buy-ins with you for each session.
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Old 11-30-2018, 03:29 PM   #22665
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It sounds like your issue is more of a bankroll problem than a playing style problem. If you can afford it, you should bring 3 buy-ins with you for each session.
so 3 buyins at $300 each? this is 1/2nl $300 max.

Also, there are times where i am winning by a little but lose it all. I tend not to get up until i have a lot or lose it all. Im not saying im forcing the action or anything but maybe that's why my win count is low? if i double up and the game is juicy ill never leave and then lose it on a suck out. this has happened a couple of times but not many.
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Old 11-30-2018, 03:32 PM   #22666
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It sounds like your issue is more of a bankroll problem than a playing style problem. If you can afford it, you should bring 3 buy-ins with you for each session.
so if bring multiple buyins i may actually end up winning. specifically the nights i lose 1 buyin and leave increasing my cashed out wins? This might be why i lose more often than win.
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Old 11-30-2018, 03:46 PM   #22667
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If you are playing 1/2 you should bring $600. You shouldn't buy-in for more than $200/pop. Playing with more buy-ins means you will need to be more cognizant of tilt because you don't want to just blow your next 2 buy-ins after losing your first.
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Old 11-30-2018, 04:31 PM   #22668
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I usually bring 600€ with me for 1/2.
But for a few weeks now i bring 800-1k with me in case their is a juicy uncapped 1/2 or 1/3 table running.

I think you have a mindset problem or your bankroll isnt big enough. You should buy in for 100bb and later when you are more comfortable you can buy in deeper.
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Old 11-30-2018, 04:36 PM   #22669
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Also, there are times where i am winning by a little but lose it all. I tend not to get up until i have a lot or lose it all. Im not saying im forcing the action or anything but maybe that's why my win count is low?
Thats not a winning strategy. Keep playing if the tables are good and if you think you are still playing good. If tables are bad and you are not playing good just leave and come back the next day.
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Old 11-30-2018, 05:11 PM   #22670
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Shadow ... there are a couple of issues you're facing here.

First off, 164 hours is a very small sample to draw conclusions from. A little bit of being card dead and missing a few spots can impact your winrate very significantly over that time. So to get a feel for how you're doing as a player we need to talk strategy (go to other threads for that).

The second problem is your bankroll management. You need to bring more money with you and be willing to rebuy after you bust. Or top off. I won't play $1/2 without $600 in my pocket to play with.

I won't hate on you for buying in for $150 instead of $200 ... that's fine depending on the table dynamics, but you need to be aware of how that impacts your ability to call or raise speculatively.

The last issue is your time management. Leaving a game because you bust once, or sticking around too long because the game is "juicy". That will get you out of good games with one unlucky beat, and keep you too late in others until you fall off your A game and start making mistakes. Pick a target time to go home and stick to it instead.
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Old 11-30-2018, 05:21 PM   #22671
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.Shadow View Post
out of my 33 sessions how often should i be winning here? Overall I'm playing a very TAG style. Unfortunately I only bring 1 shortstack buyin per session normally. As you can see in the chart has initially has worked for me so i continued that trend. I bring $120-$150 if i lose it I walk. Too many times though i get nickel and dimed down to a really short stack and I'm forced to race.

some leaks;

i dont have example hands but in general.............

I remember once i left $500 on the table. i should have called a no brainer in a possible $1000 pot agains a bluffy asian dude. 2-3 times i made very poor tilty mistakes which cost me around maybe $300 or so, but i have made some very difficult folds that were usually correct(they showed) and avoided some coolers.


Are these stats indicative of a TAG style?

Aren't small loses plus Big wins what we want to see?

Finally, i'm looking at some graphs in previous posts and i do see people winning many many times in a row unlike my graph where on average im winning every few games and at first every other. maybe it's because of the short stacking?

need some more opinions.
Strong winning players typically win between 60 and 70 percent of sessions. I think not rebuying is causing you to have more losses than normal, especially if you continue playing very short stacked. In high take games it is hard to have much edge if you get down to 40BB or less. If you buy in 150...whatever, but I would either top up once at like 100 or leave at 100.
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Old 12-03-2018, 12:07 PM   #22672
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Mr. Shadow, I would suggest posting some hands and getting feedback.

GgoodluckG
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Old 12-04-2018, 01:06 AM   #22673
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have recently begun playing in a Northern California 2-3-5 game. I would prefer not to say where for reasons I hope are obvious.

I have kept careful records. I have played 86 hours in this game and netted $7,781, working out to an astonishing 18.1 big blinds/hour.

My variance per hour is 5626.2 bb^2/hour (standard deviation 75.01 bb/sqrt(hr)), and the corresponding standard error in my win rate is 8.1 bb/hr.

On the one hand, this sample size is tiny: it is only about 2,500 hands, about five percent of what conventional wisdom says is needed to get a decent measure of win rate.

On the other hand, my observed win rate is more than two sigmas above breakeven. I might not be truly pulling $90/hour out of this game, but my true win rate is likely to be somewhere in that ballpark, i.e. somewhere between $50/hr and $130/hr.

Is bb/hr even the right measure for reasonable win rates in NL games? For this particular game, the buy-in cap is $1000, i.e., 200bb rather than the online standard of 100bb. If our results are dominated by small pots (i.e., blind steals and flop c-bets) then the buy-in size shouldn't matter; but if big pots are an important part of our results then the buy-in size is critical. This 2-3-5 game would play something like twice as big as the Commerce 5-5, because the Commerce game's buy-in cap is half of this one.

Should we be thinking about win rates in terms of buy-ins/hour rather than big blinds/hour?

Here's a sanity check about these win rate and variance numbers: my spreadsheet includes an estimate of bankroll requirement for this game, 9/4 * win rate / variance (cribbed from MM's Gambling Theory and Other Topics). At my current observed win rate and variance, my required bankroll for this game is $3,500, i.e. three and a half buy-ins. No one in their right mind would want to play this game with this small a roll. I certainly am not doing so.
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Old 12-04-2018, 01:13 AM   #22674
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I'm not sure how you can extrapolate anything from an 86 hour sample size. You can win $7800 and still be a long-term loser in the game. Hell, I saw a losing player win and subsequently lose more than that in a single 2/5 session ($500 cap). I know another long-term loser that builds up $3k stacks on the regular at 2/5. He could easily go on a heater and win $7800 in a couple sessions of 2/5.
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Old 12-04-2018, 08:24 AM   #22675
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Youre on a heater. Good luck.
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