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Old 11-26-2018, 09:39 PM   #22626
MikeStarr
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
This is interesting. The vast majority of all in pots I participate in get that way flop, turn or river. Very rare for me to get all in pre-flop (partly because I'm always topping off). Less rarely, but still not all that frequent are others getting it in with me pre-flop unless they are starting out short.

I guess tracking this stat could be mildly interesting, but I'm not sure how valuable a measure it is.

Isn't it much more important to measure your EV against the range you assign a villian? And then constantly evaluate ranges you are assigning?



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I'm talking about any All in pot where you get all in with cards yet to come. Not just preflop.

There's no way to measure EV against an assigned range. The range you assign someone and I assign someone would be quite a bit different. There's too much guess work in that. Whoever can narrow the range down better will do better overall.

Im just talking about playing the hand the best way you know how, and if you happen to get all in before the river, you calculate the EV from the point you got all in. If you lose you will see his cards. If you win and he has to show first, you see his cards. If you win and he doesnt show, then you have to make an educated guess as to what his EV was.

By running these hands thru a calculator you will get better at memorizing EVs of certain hands against other hands. You will also be forced to be honest with yourself about whether or not you are making good calls when you see the numbers written down. Its much different than just playing the hand and forgetting about it right away.

Of course, you can still tell yourself you made a good call vs his range even though your call vs his exact hand was bad....but if you do that enough times hopefully you will be forced to admit your ranging is bad and you will get better at ranging.
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Old 11-27-2018, 12:00 AM   #22627
Badreg2017
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I played for a month at the Commerce and the 3/5 games were both wild and shortstacked leading to a ton of all ins preflop or on the flop. Then of course there are the games there where there are 4 blind raises and the regs that blind shove every hand for hours.

I ran the same way in LA Kato, I feel your pain.

Last edited by Badreg2017; 11-27-2018 at 12:06 AM.
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Old 11-27-2018, 05:48 AM   #22628
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Those are the same thing. 35.93BBs times a $3 BB is $107.79

It most likely means youre playing much too nitty. Most top players StnDev is 2-3 (or more) times what yours is. Its going to be very hard to break 4BB/hr win rate like yours is by playing that nitty.
He quoted 35.93BB/HR, SD is usually calculated per 100 hands, where the 100BB/100 comes from. SD does not scale linearly but with the square root of the sample size. So...

34.93BB/HR if we assume 30 hands per hour converts to

X BB/100 = sqrt(100/30) * 34.93 = 1.825 * 34.93 = 63.74 BB/100

Which is still pretty nitty but similar to your SD right?
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Old 11-27-2018, 08:08 AM   #22629
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Shai, most of the SDev's discussed ITT have been per hour, vice per 100 hands. 34.93BB/hr is very low. GG's is 59BB/hr. I've actually never seen a long-term winner within SDev below 50BBs/hr before. Average ITT is about 100BB/hr.
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Old 11-27-2018, 09:01 AM   #22630
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Shai, most of the SDev's discussed ITT have been per hour, vice per 100 hands. 34.93BB/hr is very low. GG's is 59BB/hr. I've actually never seen a long-term winner within SDev below 50BBs/hr before. Average ITT is about 100BB/hr.


My all-time SD/hr excluding home games is 30.99 with a very small winrate of just under 4BB/hr. (1280 hrs) Add in private games and it’s 30.76 and just under 5BB/hr. (1444 hrs)

This year so far, SD/hr 38.99, just under 8BB/hr. 382 hours and probably running good.

I’m definitely on the nitty end of the play pool pre. I don’t think I’m a super-nit post, but I’m not generally getting aggro post without a good reason because these games generally have 4+ seeing the flop.

I see a lot of myself in what GG posts. I know that ain’t great.
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Old 11-27-2018, 10:26 AM   #22631
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I see a lot of myself in what GG posts. I know that ain’t great.
Cognizance is the first stop on the path to enlightenment.
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Old 11-27-2018, 11:11 AM   #22632
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Originally Posted by h0trod View Post

I see a lot of myself in what GG posts. I know that ain’t great.
Actually, GGs strategy is pretty good for a beginner. You can win at a smallish but steady rate without too much craziness day to day. You wont get yourself in a lot of trouble spots.

You will do better than 90% of other players who lose, but the key is that you will never win more than a smallish amount. As you learn how to navigate the ins and outs of different poker situations, you should abandon this massive nit strategy which will lead to much more success.

GG is just too stubborn to see that and he refuses to open his mind.
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Old 11-27-2018, 11:24 AM   #22633
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Shai, most of the SDev's discussed ITT have been per hour, vice per 100 hands. 34.93BB/hr is very low. GG's is 59BB/hr. I've actually never seen a long-term winner within SDev below 50BBs/hr before. Average ITT is about 100BB/hr.
So just curious how this all works.. how can we figure out I’m being nitty by my standard deviation?

Is it bad mine is so low even tho I’m winning?

What can I do to improve this/ should I improve it
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Old 11-27-2018, 12:46 PM   #22634
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Poker Journal has my Standard Deviation at $160.46 / hr, which is 53.5 bb/hr at my 1/3 NL game.

Poker Journal has my Standard Deviation per session at $459.43, noting I've played 539 sessions over 4187 hours at my 1/3 NL game (I don't understand the math at all and I'll admit that I'm confused as it seems to me those numbers don't equate but I'm sure it's just a math thing I'm missing).

I'm pleased with my ~7 bb/hr winrate overall. I'll become less pleased when everyone and their grandmother starts posting 12 bb/hr giraffes over significant sample sizes in a similar game/conditions I play in (no doubt expecting flood of 12 bb/hr giraffes over ~4000 hours to be posted any minute now).

As for Richard, I'd say don't undervalue the importance of winning (which is something very few of your competitors are doing).

ETA: More fun with SDs... (and some proof of winning winrates with a SD < 50 bb/hr)

Before I switched to my current Super Nit method, the previous 1300 hours I ran at 3.97 bb/hr with a SD of 47.15 bb/hr. That came on the heels of my first 2000 hours of 9.44 bb/hr with a SD of 59.8 bb/hr. Using my current Super Nit method, I've increased my winrate by 50% over the previous stretch, running at 5.78 bb/hr over 879 hours with an even further reduced SD of 44.5 bb/hr. Although interesting enough I spent ~200 hours (almost a quarter of my time) of my Super Nit method digging into and out of my tied-for-first all time biggest downswing of ~955bb. In the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately department, 7.08 bb/hr in 2018 with a SD of 44.4 bb/hr, but over a lol 442 hours to date. I'll let the math guys decipher what that all means (if anything at all).

ETA#2: But this is all based on my Poker Journal SD computation (of which I have no idea is correct or not or how it is being done).

GcluelessSDnoobG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 11-27-2018 at 01:04 PM.
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Old 11-27-2018, 12:53 PM   #22635
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Shai, most of the SDev's discussed ITT have been per hour, vice per 100 hands. 34.93BB/hr is very low. GG's is 59BB/hr. I've actually never seen a long-term winner within SDev below 50BBs/hr before. Average ITT is about 100BB/hr.
Most variance calculation tools and bankroll management apps use BB/100 for some reason or another (everything I've seen anyway), and 100BB/100 is what I always hear is "normal", which converts to roughly 55BB/HR. You are right though about 34.93BB/HR being very low and unusual for a winning player.

I had mistakenly read this post from MikeStarr where he cited a SD of 61BB/HR where I got the units wrong and thought he had said 61BB/100, since those are the units I always use in calculations. I had been wondering how the hell he managed to win that much with 61BB/100, lol.

I have 145BB/100 @ 11.5BB/hr which converts to...

sigma_hr = 145/sqrt(100/30) = 79.4BB/hr

Guess I'm nittier than I thought.

I think you may be mistaken about the average standard deviation of winning players being 100BB/HR. If do a cursory search about standard deviations in poker you'll see 100BB/100 or even less cited over and over. For instance I just googled "normal standard deviation site:twoplustwo.com" and the first result is this thread from 2012 and the second result this thread from 2013 where everyone is citing 70 - 100 BB/100. Either people have gotten way LAGgier in the intervening years or people are mistakenly using BB/100 and BB/HR interchangeably. I don't think 100BB/HR is normal. Depending on hands dealt per hour that is about 180 - 200 BB / 100 (33 to 25). Which would mean "normal" is much LAGgier than I play and I'm pretty sure I am a relative maniac compared to most on this site.

I could certainly be wrong.

@GG - Standard deviation scales with the square root of sample size, not linearly, which is why you have seemingly weird standard deviations for different sample sizes (per hand, per hour, per 100, per session). If your session SD is 459.43/HR then you would average x hour sessions where 459.43 = 160.46*sqrt(x), so x = (459.43/160.46)^2 = 8.20 hours per session. Does 8.2 hour sessions sound about right?

Oh you gave the hours, you average 7.8 hours per session. Sounds close enough, your accounting of the hours or winnings may be slightly off, or...maybe the way the program converts SD to an hourly rate. Because there is no precise way to convert SD to an hourly rate since hands are dealt at different speed. Which I'm guessing is why the BB/100 unit is standard, not BB/HR. Your BB/session SD should be 100% accurate as there is no hand/hr conversion needed for that.

Last edited by Shai Hulud; 11-27-2018 at 01:13 PM.
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Old 11-27-2018, 05:47 PM   #22636
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My standard deviation is ~182.5 BB/HR at $1/2 and I am not a winning player.
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Old 11-27-2018, 08:13 PM   #22637
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These are my stats for 1st month of live cash game play at 1-2

Profit- $517
$/hr- 12.76
$ session- 57.42
6/9 winning sessions
Big bet/ hr - 6.34
Bb/hr std def- 29.33
$/hr std dev- 58.76

I have learned a lot so far in 40 hrs of play. I def need to work on when to Cbet and when not to. I almost never open limp or limpe behind except in rare occasions. I would rather raise and iso normally instead of limping behind if hand is good enough to play.

I have 2 pots I have lost which have been terrible. I called a 55 dollar river raise with qq on a kjxxx board against a semi nitty older gentleman that was terrible (he had 2 pair and is never check raising bad hands here). Also got really stupid and lost with 9-10 after my Cbet got ripped on of a flop of 7-8-8. Guy had j8 and I felt like such an idiot after the hand for calling prolly 120-160 more. Overal I feel I fold correctly a lot and would have had a killer month if I folded correctly in these spots. I’ve run pretty well in most sessions and have found topping off stack to 200 to be a good strat even though most players play 40-60bb stacks even though typically I have 1-3 people with 300+ at tables. So far loving the cash game grind and trying to build up to a 2/5 roll!
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Old 11-27-2018, 10:45 PM   #22638
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Shai, look at live only. Online SDev is much lower, as went to showdown rates are so much lower. In live you are much more often at the mercy of the deck. bip! has a great discussion of SDev ITT from (IIRC) 2016, that is worth searching out. And just like winnings, hourly rates are much more common in live, and per 100 hands rates in online.

Richard32, your low SDev shows that you are likely passing up on a lot of +EV spots, because if you were taking them, sometimes your Vs would suck out and create bigger swings, but overall you'd win more.

Last edited by Garick; 11-27-2018 at 10:52 PM.
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Old 11-28-2018, 12:13 AM   #22639
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I have a 5.2 bb/Hr winrate after 325 hours of 1/2 and 2/5

My SD (in bb/Hr) is 50.

What does that tell us?

Absolutely nothing cause it's a mini sample size, gotta go grind....
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Old 11-28-2018, 01:23 AM   #22640
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Shai, look at live only. Online SDev is much lower, as went to showdown rates are so much lower. In live you are much more often at the mercy of the deck. bip! has a great discussion of SDev ITT from (IIRC) 2016, that is worth searching out. And just like winnings, hourly rates are much more common in live, and per 100 hands rates in online.

Richard32, your low SDev shows that you are likely passing up on a lot of +EV spots, because if you were taking them, sometimes your Vs would suck out and create bigger swings, but overall you'd win more.
Okay but you are saying the standard deviations from live are around 200BB/100 whereas online people most commonly say 80BB/100, which means live variance is (200/80)^2 = 6.25 ~ SIX times as bad? I can see how it may be worse, particularly when buying in 200BB deep vs 100BB deep as online, but it can't be that much worse. Surely? I am struggling to imagine how I could even get a SD that large. The LAGgiest winner in my room (that I know of) has 147BB/100 or 80ishBB/hr. I'll try to find these posts from Bip!

The problem with hourly standard deviation rates is statistically it's just an approximation for BB/(hands dealt per hour). It is imprecise and leads to inconsistencies like you see with GG's session SD vs. hourly SD.

@stlows - standard deviation converges much faster than winrate, I think after 325 hours it is likely fairly close to your true SD.

EDIT: Found the post you were referring to Garick. I think it's this one

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
1) no one keeps track of bb/100

2) 60-80bb/100 would be ridiculously low


A typical taggy 2/5 players would probably be something like 60-70bb/hr. A little lower is possible and so is much higher.

Live poker goes 5 way to the flop for 5bb each... it is much higher variance than online. 50% vpip vs 15% vpip will do that...
Bip! says 60 - 70 BB/hr which is ~110 to 127 BB/100. If I average at 118BB/100 and take online average at 80BB/100 then variance is 2.17 times as bad live. This seems a lot more believable to me.

Last edited by Shai Hulud; 11-28-2018 at 01:32 AM.
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Old 11-28-2018, 08:38 AM   #22641
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I actually meant the discussion that starts here. The chart is no longer live, unfortunately, but it led to a lot of folks figuring and then reporting their SDevs and 95% confidence intervals of WR. At the time, mine was the lowest SDev ( ) in the thread, and I think bip! (who was very laggy and later switched to PLO) was somewhere in the 140BB/hr range. IIRC, most folks ITT fell in the 70-100 hour range.
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Old 11-28-2018, 10:49 AM   #22642
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I play mainly 1/2.

575h since april , 22,93€/h
SD 118,67/h

What does my SD tell us?
Is it normal?
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Old 11-28-2018, 11:00 AM   #22643
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Those are the same thing. 35.93BBs times a $3 BB is $107.79

It most likely means youre playing much too nitty. Most top players StnDev is 2-3 (or more) times what yours is. Its going to be very hard to break 4BB/hr win rate like yours is by playing that nitty.
Do you mean too nitty preflop, post flop or both?
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Old 11-28-2018, 11:13 AM   #22644
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Suyupa, it's a bit on the high side for a winning player, but not outrageously so. Sounds like you play in a pretty wild game.

Gravity Well, it's hard to tell just from SDev if Richard32's nittiness is more pre or post, though pre tends to have the greatest effect on SDev. Still, with an SDev that low, I suspect both. It looks like he might be playing a bit weak/tight.
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Old 11-28-2018, 11:46 AM   #22645
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Posting hands and getting flamed will say much more about your game than winrate SD imo. Seems like SD says just as much about game conditions as it does about your own play.
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Old 11-28-2018, 11:48 AM   #22646
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Suyupa, it's a bit on the high side for a winning player, but not outrageously so. Sounds like you play in a pretty wild game.
It depends but most of the time people dont fold much pre and dont like to fold postflop which makes variance higher. So i think it could be because of (bloated) pots always being multiway where you have to give up a lot when not hitting good enough.

Or what do you think could be the reason?
Im not playing overly aggressive.
Most of the time the players are also not very aggressive.

What is a normal SD in bb?
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Old 11-28-2018, 11:59 AM   #22647
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I feel far too spewy at times and my SD is only 162/hr with 90 percent of that at 1/3
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Old 11-28-2018, 01:02 PM   #22648
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Personally, I wouldn't be too concerned about your SD, but that's me. I also wouldn't be too concerned about any style you're playing so long as you think it's a decent one for your game and you're winning. Changing your game just to satisfy a SD or "TAG" or whatever requirement is meh if what you're doing is working in your conditions, imo.

Lately during my Super Nit method I've been rocking an almost 0% raising range from anything up to (and even sometimes including) CO/Button, the very definition of "weak tight". Rocking a 7.9 bb/hr winrate this year using this method (yes, I had a good session yesterday to bump it up a bit). Do what works, and be suspect of people telling you otherwise (especially if they're not backing up what they're saying).

Gweaktight,justlikeallthegoodpokerbooksrecommendG
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Old 11-28-2018, 01:08 PM   #22649
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Originally Posted by mdelore View Post
Posting hands and getting flamed will say much more about your game than winrate SD imo. Seems like SD says just as much about game conditions as it does about your own play.
+1

Thought I was the only one that DGAF about SD. It’s a dependent variable. Who cares.
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Old 11-28-2018, 01:27 PM   #22650
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Its not that im looking every day at my SD but just would be interesting to know the meaningfulness of SD about the own game.

And at what point is SD bb/h too low or too high?
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