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Old 11-22-2018, 01:59 PM   #22601
bodybuilder32
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
This pretty much describes my daytime tables. Ive often said it was very tough to win much money here, but I made some big adjustments going more and more into LAG mode and my last 500+hrs Im at 15.3BB/hr

(Not all the hours were at tables like this but the majority were)
Are you starting to get paid more due to image or has your profit increase been due to even more stealing?

I've played in these types of games and it seems the profitable bluffs are from raising over limps and taking it down or getting it heads up and c-betting. Basically hammering them over the head with small ball. Are stacks deep enough where you are running big bluffs where you are risking your stack and bullying the nits with "scary" sized big bets?
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Old 11-22-2018, 07:17 PM   #22602
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Originally Posted by bodybuilder32 View Post
Are you starting to get paid more due to image or has your profit increase been due to even more stealing?

I've played in these types of games and it seems the profitable bluffs are from raising over limps and taking it down or getting it heads up and c-betting. Basically hammering them over the head with small ball. Are stacks deep enough where you are running big bluffs where you are risking your stack and bullying the nits with "scary" sized big bets?
That's hard for me to say because I have plenty of people who think I'm a nit and plenty who think Im a maniac. I get called a nit often enough that it boggles my mind. The other day I sat down and a guy said "whats the under/over on how many hands this guy will play in the next hour?"

He whispered the number to his neighbor who was a friend of mine and the number was 4. Clearly the guy thinks I'm a nit. I played 12 hands that hour.

Your second paragraph does describe me a lot of the time. I do steal a lot of limp and blind money, and when called try to use my post flop edge to out play them. I dont make too many large bluffs though. Stacks normally arent deep where I play. Especially during the day time.
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Old 11-22-2018, 09:36 PM   #22603
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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
...........I evaluate games by estimating the winrates of various players on average.

For example...we have a game where the other players are

one crusher wins 12BB/HR
two pros win 8BB/HR
one nit wins 5BB/HR
three regfish losing 10BB/HR
one donk losing 50BB/HR



.........But here's another game where no one is particularly good but we would have trouble making much money

four nits win 5BB/HR
two super nits break even
two regfish lose 10BB/HR

...........
I think we all over estimate our villains winrates tho. We agree that ~10% of players win overall but we play at games where ~50% of players (when we include ourselves) are winners?
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Old 11-23-2018, 02:54 PM   #22604
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Originally Posted by crsseyed View Post
I think we all over estimate our villains winrates tho. We agree that ~10% of players win overall but we play at games where ~50% of players (when we include ourselves) are winners?
The bad players loose their money quicker and are replaced by other bad players. The good players play longer because they aren't limited by running out of cash to play. So, it could still be 10% of all total players making up 50% of a given table.
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Old 11-23-2018, 03:11 PM   #22605
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Still 50% of the players at a typical low stakes table aren't winners. Nits are at best break even players and most of them are losers unless they play in super soft games with no pros and nobody with a clue.
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Old 11-24-2018, 02:05 AM   #22606
Shai Hulud
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
That's hard for me to say because I have plenty of people who think I'm a nit and plenty who think Im a maniac. I get called a nit often enough that it boggles my mind. The other day I sat down and a guy said "whats the under/over on how many hands this guy will play in the next hour?"

He whispered the number to his neighbor who was a friend of mine and the number was 4. Clearly the guy thinks I'm a nit. I played 12 hands that hour.

Your second paragraph does describe me a lot of the time. I do steal a lot of limp and blind money, and when called try to use my post flop edge to out play them. I dont make too many large bluffs though. Stacks normally arent deep where I play. Especially during the day time.
If you're a disciplined player you will invariably be called a nit from time to time regardless of your VPIP/PFR because the slow pace of live play means even disciplined LAGs can go card dead for hours (even if their standard for opening is loose) and recs do not see enough hands to really know how you play.

I get called a nit pretty frequently and my SD is 145BB/100. Since variance is SD^2 this is over twice the variance of the oft quoted 100BB/100 and about six times your previously quoted SD of 60BB/100 IIRC.

That said from reading your HHs, your low SD, and previous discussion on the meaning of terms like TAG ABC nit etc., I think you probably are on the nitty side of TAG. But maybe compared to your daytime crowd you are a maniac, IDK. Such labels are interpreted relative to the population of your specific games.
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Old 11-24-2018, 01:38 PM   #22607
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

2019 results:

1/2:
1002 hrs
profit: $41292
$/hr: 41.21

5/5:
148.5 hrs
profit: $3135
$/hr: $21.11

Not sure if this image will work, but here's the all time 2200 hr 1/2 graph from the past 2.5 yrs:
[IMG][/IMG]

Last edited by niceguy22; 11-24-2018 at 01:47 PM.
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Old 11-24-2018, 02:17 PM   #22608
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
2019 results:
1/2:
1002 hrs
profit: $41292
$/hr: 41.21
Nice results for next year, mang! How's life in the future?
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Old 11-24-2018, 05:14 PM   #22609
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by niceguy22 View Post
2019 results:

1/2:
1002 hrs
profit: $41292
$/hr: 41.21

5/5:
148.5 hrs
profit: $3135
$/hr: $21.11

Not sure if this image will work, but here's the all time 2200 hr 1/2 graph from the past 2.5 yrs:
[IMG][/IMG]

Incredible results - well done

Seems like you need to move down to where they’ll respect your raises
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Old 11-25-2018, 09:59 AM   #22610
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Quote:
Originally Posted by niceguy22 View Post
2019 results:

1/2:
1002 hrs
profit: $41292
$/hr: 41.21
Impressive … well played!
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Old 11-26-2018, 01:21 PM   #22611
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^^^^

Wow, looks like you're at about ~15 bb/hr over 2200 hours?!?!

Gveryimpressive,imoG
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Old 11-26-2018, 04:36 PM   #22612
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i talked a lot about having brutal downswings this year. i dont play much poker anymore, and my logs aren't as accurate a they used to be.

i won ~10bb/hr at $2/5 for ~700 hours late 2017/early 2018.

2nd half of 2018 closes at 220 hours @ ~3 bb/hr


last night, i was stuck -$1900 at 2/5/10. mostly getting rivered vs bad players. i grind all day to get back to -$500. I open AA. get 3 callers. AQ2. bet bet bet/call off jam vs 22 on AQ252 runout for ~$3k pot.

most of my downswing ive wondered if i just suck at poker. still not sure. but variance is so brutal.
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Old 11-26-2018, 05:07 PM   #22613
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Originally Posted by jc315 View Post
but variance is so brutal.
I saw this hand a couple of sessions ago.

It's a bomb pot where 8 of the 10 participate for $20 each (lol, 3 guesses as to who sits out).

Anyhoo, pot is $160 and SB looks down at AA on a 965hh board and bets $110. He's $900 effective with 96o that flats. Super aggro Button shoves his $600 with 95o. AA sigh calls. 96 now ships. AA sigh calls again.

Ace on the turn, which holds up and takes down a $2500 pot, which is one of the largest pots I've ever seen in my 1/3 NL game (3rd largest as far as I can recall, although my memory admittedly sucks).

Part of me guesses that a decent part of your winrate simply comes in how good you run in your rare big pots. Another part of me guesses that because they are so rare that it might not matter as much as I think. I don't know.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 11-26-2018, 05:36 PM   #22614
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Part of me guesses that a decent part of your winrate simply comes in how good you run in your rare big pots. Another part of me guesses that because they are so rare that it might not matter as much as I think. I don't know.

GcluelessNLnoobG
its prob been talked about quite a bit here, but those big pots can define a session and running bad in big pots should largely impact winrates. big pots are not as rare in my game.
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Old 11-26-2018, 06:19 PM   #22615
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its prob been talked about quite a bit here, but those big pots can define a session and running bad in big pots should largely impact winrates. big pots are not as rare in my game.
This is why Ive always kept track of my All in EV. It gives me an idea of how good/bad I'm running in the biggest of pots and how much it affects my overall win rate.

However, (not saying this is you, but) people remember when they get all in with AA vs KK and lose and it can kill a session all by itself, but they forget that they may have won the last 7-8 times that they got all in with a bigger pair.

You may have run well in big pots in the first 700 hour sample you mentioned. I don't like to guess. I like to know which is why I keep track.

In 3 years of close to full time poker, this month is the best Ive ever done in All in EV. Ive run $3550 over EV so far in Nov. If I hadn't kept track I wouldn't have thought it was so much and wouldn't realize how hot I'm running this month in big pots..
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Old 11-26-2018, 06:26 PM   #22616
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Not sure how this is possible, but since moving to SoCal in July I've played about 120 hours of NLH and haven't won a single all in preflop. Gotten it in pre 25 times, being ahead in 22 of them. 0 for 25.

Still won at ~35/hr over that time period at 5/5. God bless how soft the games are here.

In contrast, I've played about 50 hours of PLO and ran hotter than the sun winning at $214/hr.
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Old 11-26-2018, 06:30 PM   #22617
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Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
Not sure how this is possible, but since moving to SoCal in July I've played about 120 hours of NLH and haven't won a single all in preflop. Gotten it in pre 25 times, being ahead in 22 of them. 0 for 25.

Still won at ~35/hr over that time period at 5/5. God bless how soft the games are here.
That's a lot of preflop All ins. How do you get your stack in preflop less than every 5 hrs? That's crazy. Are you playing fully stacked?
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Old 11-26-2018, 06:35 PM   #22618
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
That's a lot of preflop All ins. How do you get your stack in preflop less than every 5 hrs? That's crazy. Are you playing fully stacked?
Crazy LA games. JJ+, AQs+, AKo+ are all slam dunk get it in spots a lot of the time in the 5/5 games I play in. As you can see from me being ahead in 22 of the 25 all ins even while getting it in so often.
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Old 11-26-2018, 06:58 PM   #22619
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Kato what are average stacks?
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Old 11-26-2018, 06:59 PM   #22620
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~100 bigs average. 5/5 buyin is 300-600.
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Old 11-26-2018, 07:04 PM   #22621
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Hi all

Winning about $12/hr at 1/3 over 700 hours

what does a $107.79/hr standard deviation mean?

What about a 35.93 bb/hr standard deviation


Using the poker income pro app?

Thank you all!
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Old 11-26-2018, 09:07 PM   #22622
MikeStarr
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Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
Crazy LA games. JJ+, AQs+, AKo+ are all slam dunk get it in spots a lot of the time in the 5/5 games I play in. As you can see from me being ahead in 22 of the 25 all ins even while getting it in so often.
I played 5/5 in LA for 3-4 days last month along with some 5/10 out there. The games were mega soft but I didnt see many preflop all ins. Not anymore than anywhere else. Of course I didnt play much past about 9PM.
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Old 11-26-2018, 09:10 PM   #22623
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Originally Posted by Richard32 View Post
Hi all

Winning about $12/hr at 1/3 over 700 hours

what does a $107.79/hr standard deviation mean?

What about a 35.93 bb/hr standard deviation



Using the poker income pro app?

Thank you all!
Those are the same thing. 35.93BBs times a $3 BB is $107.79

It most likely means youre playing much too nitty. Most top players StnDev is 2-3 (or more) times what yours is. Its going to be very hard to break 4BB/hr win rate like yours is by playing that nitty.
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Old 11-26-2018, 09:17 PM   #22624
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
This is why Ive always kept track of my All in EV. It gives me an idea of how good/bad I'm running in the biggest of pots and how much it affects my overall win rate.

However, (not saying this is you, but) people remember when they get all in with AA vs KK and lose and it can kill a session all by itself, but they forget that they may have won the last 7-8 times that they got all in with a bigger pair.

You may have run well in big pots in the first 700 hour sample you mentioned. I don't like to guess. I like to know which is why I keep track.

In 3 years of close to full time poker, this month is the best Ive ever done in All in EV. Ive run $3550 over EV so far in Nov. If I hadn't kept track I wouldn't have thought it was so much and wouldn't realize how hot I'm running this month in big pots..
This is interesting. The vast majority of all in pots I participate in get that way flop, turn or river. Very rare for me to get all in pre-flop (partly because I'm always topping off). Less rarely, but still not all that frequent are others getting it in with me pre-flop unless they are starting out short.

I guess tracking this stat could be mildly interesting, but I'm not sure how valuable a measure it is.

Isn't it much more important to measure your EV against the range you assign a villian? And then constantly evaluate ranges you are assigning?



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Old 11-26-2018, 09:23 PM   #22625
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I played 5/5 in LA for 3-4 days last month along with some 5/10 out there. The games were mega soft but I didnt see many preflop all ins. Not anymore than anywhere else. Of course I didnt play much past about 9PM.
Most of my play is 8pm - 1am.
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