I saw this hand a couple of sessions ago.

It's a bomb pot where 8 of the 10 participate for $20 each (lol, 3 guesses as to who sits out).

Anyhoo, pot is $160 and SB looks down at AA on a 965hh board and bets $110. He's $900 effective with 96o that flats. Super aggro Button shoves his $600 with 95o. AA sigh calls. 96 now ships. AA sigh calls again.

Ace on the turn, which holds up and takes down a $2500 pot, which is one of the largest pots I've ever seen in my 1/3 NL game (3rd largest as far as I can recall, although my memory admittedly sucks).

Part of me guesses that a decent part of your winrate simply comes in how good you run in your rare big pots. Another part of me guesses that because they are so rare that it might not matter as much as I think. I don't know.

GcluelessNLnoobG

its prob been talked about quite a bit here, but those big pots can define a session and running bad in big pots should largely impact winrates. big pots are not as rare in my game.

This is why Ive always kept track of my All in EV. It gives me an idea of how good/bad I'm running in the biggest of pots and how much it affects my overall win rate.

However, (not saying this is you, but) people remember when they get all in with AA vs KK and lose and it can kill a session all by itself, but they forget that they may have won the last 7-8 times that they got all in with a bigger pair.

You may have run well in big pots in the first 700 hour sample you mentioned. I don't like to guess. I like to know which is why I keep track.

In 3 years of close to full time poker, this month is the best Ive ever done in All in EV. Ive run $3550 over EV so far in Nov. If I hadn't kept track I wouldn't have thought it was so much and wouldn't realize how hot I'm running this month in big pots..

Not sure how this is possible, but since moving to SoCal in July I've played about 120 hours of NLH and haven't won a single all in preflop. Gotten it in pre 25 times, being ahead in 22 of them. 0 for 25.

Still won at ~35/hr over that time period at 5/5. God bless how soft the games are here.

In contrast, I've played about 50 hours of PLO and ran hotter than the sun winning at $214/hr.

That's a lot of preflop All ins. How do you get your stack in preflop less than every 5 hrs? That's crazy. Are you playing fully stacked?

Crazy LA games. JJ+, AQs+, AKo+ are all slam dunk get it in spots a lot of the time in the 5/5 games I play in. As you can see from me being ahead in 22 of the 25 all ins even while getting it in so often.

Kato what are average stacks?

~100 bigs average. 5/5 buyin is 300-600.

Hi all

Winning about $12/hr at 1/3 over 700 hours

what does a $107.79/hr standard deviation mean?

What about a 35.93 bb/hr standard deviation


Using the poker income pro app?

Thank you all!

I played 5/5 in LA for 3-4 days last month along with some 5/10 out there. The games were mega soft but I didnt see many preflop all ins. Not anymore than anywhere else. Of course I didnt play much past about 9PM.

Those are the same thing. 35.93BBs times a $3 BB is $107.79

It most likely means youre playing much too nitty. Most top players StnDev is 2-3 (or more) times what yours is. Its going to be very hard to break 4BB/hr win rate like yours is by playing that nitty.

This is interesting. The vast majority of all in pots I participate in get that way flop, turn or river. Very rare for me to get all in pre-flop (partly because I'm always topping off). Less rarely, but still not all that frequent are others getting it in with me pre-flop unless they are starting out short.

I guess tracking this stat could be mildly interesting, but I'm not sure how valuable a measure it is.

Isn't it much more important to measure your EV against the range you assign a villian? And then constantly evaluate ranges you are assigning?



Sent from my SM-G955U1 using Tapatalk

Most of my play is 8pm - 1am.

I'm talking about any All in pot where you get all in with cards yet to come. Not just preflop.

There's no way to measure EV against an assigned range. The range you assign someone and I assign someone would be quite a bit different. There's too much guess work in that. Whoever can narrow the range down better will do better overall.

Im just talking about playing the hand the best way you know how, and if you happen to get all in before the river, you calculate the EV from the point you got all in. If you lose you will see his cards. If you win and he has to show first, you see his cards. If you win and he doesnt show, then you have to make an educated guess as to what his EV was.

By running these hands thru a calculator you will get better at memorizing EVs of certain hands against other hands. You will also be forced to be honest with yourself about whether or not you are making good calls when you see the numbers written down. Its much different than just playing the hand and forgetting about it right away.

Of course, you can still tell yourself you made a good call vs his range even though your call vs his exact hand was bad....but if you do that enough times hopefully you will be forced to admit your ranging is bad and you will get better at ranging.

I played for a month at the Commerce and the 3/5 games were both wild and shortstacked leading to a ton of all ins preflop or on the flop. Then of course there are the games there where there are 4 blind raises and the regs that blind shove every hand for hours.

I ran the same way in LA Kato, I feel your pain.

He quoted 35.93BB/HR, SD is usually calculated per 100 hands, where the 100BB/100 comes from. SD does not scale linearly but with the square root of the sample size. So...

34.93BB/HR if we assume 30 hands per hour converts to

X BB/100 = sqrt(100/30) * 34.93 = 1.825 * 34.93 = 63.74 BB/100

Which is still pretty nitty but similar to your SD right?

Shai, most of the SDev's discussed ITT have been per hour, vice per 100 hands. 34.93BB/hr is very low. GG's is 59BB/hr. I've actually never seen a long-term winner within SDev below 50BBs/hr before. Average ITT is about 100BB/hr.

My all-time SD/hr excluding home games is 30.99 with a very small winrate of just under 4BB/hr. (1280 hrs) Add in private games and it’s 30.76 and just under 5BB/hr. (1444 hrs)

This year so far, SD/hr 38.99, just under 8BB/hr. 382 hours and probably running good.

I’m definitely on the nitty end of the play pool pre. I don’t think I’m a super-nit post, but I’m not generally getting aggro post without a good reason because these games generally have 4+ seeing the flop.

I see a lot of myself in what GG posts. I know that ain’t great.

Cognizance is the first stop on the path to enlightenment.

Actually, GGs strategy is pretty good for a beginner. You can win at a smallish but steady rate without too much craziness day to day. You wont get yourself in a lot of trouble spots.

You will do better than 90% of other players who lose, but the key is that you will never win more than a smallish amount. As you learn how to navigate the ins and outs of different poker situations, you should abandon this massive nit strategy which will lead to much more success.

GG is just too stubborn to see that and he refuses to open his mind.

So just curious how this all works.. how can we figure out I’m being nitty by my standard deviation?

Is it bad mine is so low even tho I’m winning?

What can I do to improve this/ should I improve it

Poker Journal has my Standard Deviation at $160.46 / hr, which is 53.5 bb/hr at my 1/3 NL game.

Poker Journal has my Standard Deviation per session at $459.43, noting I've played 539 sessions over 4187 hours at my 1/3 NL game (I don't understand the math at all and I'll admit that I'm confused as it seems to me those numbers don't equate but I'm sure it's just a math thing I'm missing).

I'm pleased with my ~7 bb/hr winrate overall. I'll become less pleased when everyone and their grandmother starts posting 12 bb/hr giraffes over significant sample sizes in a similar game/conditions I play in (no doubt expecting flood of 12 bb/hr giraffes over ~4000 hours to be posted any minute now).

As for Richard, I'd say don't undervalue the importance of winning (which is something very few of your competitors are doing).

ETA: More fun with SDs... (and some proof of winning winrates with a SD < 50 bb/hr)

Before I switched to my current Super Nit method, the previous 1300 hours I ran at 3.97 bb/hr with a SD of 47.15 bb/hr. That came on the heels of my first 2000 hours of 9.44 bb/hr with a SD of 59.8 bb/hr. Using my current Super Nit method, I've increased my winrate by 50% over the previous stretch, running at 5.78 bb/hr over 879 hours with an even further reduced SD of 44.5 bb/hr. Although interesting enough I spent ~200 hours (almost a quarter of my time) of my Super Nit method digging into and out of my tied-for-first all time biggest downswing of ~955bb. In the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately department, 7.08 bb/hr in 2018 with a SD of 44.4 bb/hr, but over a lol 442 hours to date. I'll let the math guys decipher what that all means (if anything at all).

ETA#2: But this is all based on my Poker Journal SD computation (of which I have no idea is correct or not or how it is being done).

GcluelessSDnoobG

Most variance calculation tools and bankroll management apps use BB/100 for some reason or another (everything I've seen anyway), and 100BB/100 is what I always hear is "normal", which converts to roughly 55BB/HR. You are right though about 34.93BB/HR being very low and unusual for a winning player.

I had mistakenly read this post from MikeStarr where he cited a SD of 61BB/HR where I got the units wrong and thought he had said 61BB/100, since those are the units I always use in calculations. I had been wondering how the hell he managed to win that much with 61BB/100, lol.

I have 145BB/100 @ 11.5BB/hr which converts to...

sigma_hr = 145/sqrt(100/30) = 79.4BB/hr

Guess I'm nittier than I thought.

I think you may be mistaken about the average standard deviation of winning players being 100BB/HR. If do a cursory search about standard deviations in poker you'll see 100BB/100 or even less cited over and over. For instance I just googled "normal standard deviation site:twoplustwo.com" and the first result is this thread from 2012 and the second result this thread from 2013 where everyone is citing 70 - 100 BB/100. Either people have gotten way LAGgier in the intervening years or people are mistakenly using BB/100 and BB/HR interchangeably. I don't think 100BB/HR is normal. Depending on hands dealt per hour that is about 180 - 200 BB / 100 (33 to 25). Which would mean "normal" is much LAGgier than I play and I'm pretty sure I am a relative maniac compared to most on this site.

I could certainly be wrong.

@GG - Standard deviation scales with the square root of sample size, not linearly, which is why you have seemingly weird standard deviations for different sample sizes (per hand, per hour, per 100, per session). If your session SD is 459.43/HR then you would average x hour sessions where 459.43 = 160.46*sqrt(x), so x = (459.43/160.46)^2 = 8.20 hours per session. Does 8.2 hour sessions sound about right?

Oh you gave the hours, you average 7.8 hours per session. Sounds close enough, your accounting of the hours or winnings may be slightly off, or...maybe the way the program converts SD to an hourly rate. Because there is no precise way to convert SD to an hourly rate since hands are dealt at different speed. Which I'm guessing is why the BB/100 unit is standard, not BB/HR. Your BB/session SD should be 100% accurate as there is no hand/hr conversion needed for that.

My standard deviation is ~182.5 BB/HR at $1/2 and I am not a winning player.

These are my stats for 1st month of live cash game play at 1-2

Profit- $517
$/hr- 12.76
$ session- 57.42
6/9 winning sessions
Big bet/ hr - 6.34
Bb/hr std def- 29.33
$/hr std dev- 58.76

I have learned a lot so far in 40 hrs of play. I def need to work on when to Cbet and when not to. I almost never open limp or limpe behind except in rare occasions. I would rather raise and iso normally instead of limping behind if hand is good enough to play.

I have 2 pots I have lost which have been terrible. I called a 55 dollar river raise with qq on a kjxxx board against a semi nitty older gentleman that was terrible (he had 2 pair and is never check raising bad hands here). Also got really stupid and lost with 9-10 after my Cbet got ripped on of a flop of 7-8-8. Guy had j8 and I felt like such an idiot after the hand for calling prolly 120-160 more. Overal I feel I fold correctly a lot and would have had a killer month if I folded correctly in these spots. I’ve run pretty well in most sessions and have found topping off stack to 200 to be a good strat even though most players play 40-60bb stacks even though typically I have 1-3 people with 300+ at tables. So far loving the cash game grind and trying to build up to a 2/5 roll!