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Old 11-20-2018, 06:41 PM   #22576
gobbledygeek
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Originally Posted by paulhamr View Post
I already posted it. See post 22531.
Lol, for some reason I never clued into that.

I guess within that it does look like you had about a ~$4500 downswing at one point (which kinda makes sense as a ~breakevenish player + expected bad run over this time period), but still kinda amazing how you've managed to keep in between the wickets for this long a period.

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Old 11-20-2018, 06:56 PM   #22577
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Lol, for some reason I never clued into that.

I guess within that it does look like you had about a ~$4500 downswing at one point (which kinda makes sense as a ~breakevenish player + expected bad run over this time period), but still kinda amazing how you've managed to keep in between the wickets for this long a period.

GgoodluckG
Actually, I think most players are like me, but they don't keep track of their play and they don't post on here. I would think I was a winning player otherwise. I still hold out hope that I will break out to profits one day.
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Old 11-20-2018, 07:09 PM   #22578
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Actually, I think most players are like me
In a raked game, especially where a certain percentage are winning players, there is no way most players are ~breaking even.

ETA: I'd guesstimate that about $200 comes off my 1/3 NL table per hour in rake / BBJ / tip. So over 1500 hours that's $300,000.00. Someone is paying for that, and it ain't me, and it ain't you.

Gyou'redoingbetterthanmost,imoG
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Old 11-20-2018, 09:13 PM   #22579
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Conventional wisdom says that 90%+ of all players lose money. A guy I know who used to work for an online poker site told me that its common knowledge in the business that 95% of all online players lose. They have access to everyone's account so I assume they know.
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Old 11-20-2018, 09:35 PM   #22580
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by paulhamr View Post
Actually, I think most players are like me, but they don't keep track of their play and they don't post on here. I would think I was a winning player otherwise. I still hold out hope that I will break out to profits one day.


Thanks for posting honestly in here and all the best for turning break even into profit

My advice....

fold more pre flop out of position

Force yourself to value bet more and more often in marginal spots than you currently feel comfortable doing
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Old 11-20-2018, 09:52 PM   #22581
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Conventional wisdom says that 90%+ of all players lose money. A guy I know who used to work for an online poker site told me that its common knowledge in the business that 95% of all online players lose. They have access to everyone's account so I assume they know.
A life-long friend of mine retired several - ok, many - years ago from his position as the poker room manager of the Hollywood Park Casino in Inglewood, CA. He once asked me to estimate the following:

"What percentage of the poker money that walks into the room, goes down the hole as rake. Skip the tips, skip the promo drops, step right up and make a guess. On average, in concept only, over the course of a year, your mileage may vary, just make a guess Noz."

I guessed 60-65%.

He guessed 85-90%.

He would know better than me, I would think.

Which means any winning players are fighting over their "share", at any given moment, of the remaining 10-15%.

Sobering if at all close to accurate.
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Old 11-20-2018, 10:18 PM   #22582
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Thanks for posting honestly in here and all the best for turning break even into profit

My advice....

fold more pre flop out of position

Force yourself to value bet more and more often in marginal spots than you currently feel comfortable doing
Pre-flop is one of my strengths. I can out fold anyone pre-flop. I think my biggest leak is calling too much with second best on the river. I'm sure I could find more value bets and more bluffing spots too. I'll post after 500 more hours, but it may be 2020 before I get there.
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Old 11-20-2018, 10:20 PM   #22583
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your friend is talking nonsense imo and your guess is far more accurate

if rake (in my room at least) is $300ish an hour, that would mean that only between $30 and $45 was being 'won' in total by the winners, whereas under your calc, it would mean that $120-130 an hour was being won by the winners, which I think might still be conservative tbh
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Old 11-20-2018, 11:05 PM   #22584
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nozsr View Post
A life-long friend of mine retired several - ok, many - years ago from his position as the poker room manager of the Hollywood Park Casino in Inglewood, CA. He once asked me to estimate the following:

"What percentage of the poker money that walks into the room, goes down the hole as rake. Skip the tips, skip the promo drops, step right up and make a guess. On average, in concept only, over the course of a year, your mileage may vary, just make a guess Noz."

I guessed 60-65%.

He guessed 85-90%.

He would know better than me, I would think.

Which means any winning players are fighting over their "share", at any given moment, of the remaining 10-15%.

Sobering if at all close to accurate.
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your friend is talking nonsense imo and your guess is far more accurate

if rake (in my room at least) is $300ish an hour, that would mean that only between $30 and $45 was being 'won' in total by the winners, whereas under your calc, it would mean that $120-130 an hour was being won by the winners, which I think might still be conservative tbh
Based on his post he is saying that players only retain 10 to 15% of the money, not win it. So, in an 8 hour session, $2400 would go down in rake at your casino (which has very high rake). If this is 85% of the total money in play then that means that players bought in for a total of $2,824 or $314 per person and players would only expect to retain 15% of that or $423 total (minus tips and bbj).

I suppose he means the players will leave with money but will eventually come back with it and it will go back down as rake but that doesn't really make a lot of sense to me as winning players bankrolls will continue to grow over time (very little of my money ever goes back in play) while losing players will continually reload with more money from their job or savings.
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Old 11-20-2018, 11:59 PM   #22585
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the 90% of poker players lose is misleading too. that may be true but that doesn't mean that 9/10 players at a table are losing players. Most losing players might average 5 hours a week over a year whereas most of the winning players are there 20-45 hours a week as serious regs or pros

so perhaps 90% of the player pool do lose money but I'd guess that on average there are between 2 and 3 winning players at every llsnl table and probably at least 3 at mid stakes
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Old 11-21-2018, 01:15 AM   #22586
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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the 90% of poker players lose is misleading too. that may be true but that doesn't mean that 9/10 players at a table are losing players. Most losing players might average 5 hours a week over a year whereas most of the winning players are there 20-45 hours a week as serious regs or pros

so perhaps 90% of the player pool do lose money but I'd guess that on average there are between 2 and 3 winning players at every llsnl table and probably at least 3 at mid stakes
But if you are at a table with 3 pros that table is not going to be beatable if you are similar skill as the other pros without multiple fish spewing off chips. I sometimes am at a table where every player I estimate is break even or better overall. Such a game is not beatable. In fact in such a game the break even players are losing and the winning players breaking even with perhaps the very best player modestly winning.

It is kind of illusory to think of someone as a winning player since it all depends on the table. The trick is finding games where we are vastly superior to other players. If I see 3 pros at a table I transfer or leave because I'm just wasting time otherwise.
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Old 11-21-2018, 01:55 AM   #22587
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I don't disagree with any of that. 'winning players at a table' should probably be interpreted as 'winning players at that stake in your room' or sth similar because yes, I know that I'm a winning player at my stake in my room but if all the best pros were at one table, I'd be a dog at that table

I'm blessed to play in a market where the bad players truly are very bad, we very often have people burning through 3-4k in the worst possible fashion, so I will often sit at a table with 3 pros and even a couple of other decent winning regs and still think there's a lot of money to be made.
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Old 11-21-2018, 11:58 AM   #22588
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For a while during my previous session, I was sitting at a table with 3 other very solid players (all undoubtedly winners), something I almost never do. But I was also sitting with 3 incredibly terrible players (all of whom I had actually never played with before but it was clear they had no clue what they were doing). I had actually had no idea how to evaluate the goodness/badness of the table overall.

Put my name in for a table change, didn't put up a stink when the floor filled my chair at the other table with a new player, and eventually just called it a night when one of the marks left and the other ones stack dwindled to super short.

GcluelessingeneralG
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Old 11-21-2018, 01:07 PM   #22589
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Supp booyysss
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Old 11-21-2018, 01:08 PM   #22590
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Mealey meal what’s popping bro how’s that thing going?


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Old 11-21-2018, 01:14 PM   #22591
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Mealey meal what’s popping bro how’s that thing going?


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da ting go
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Old 11-21-2018, 01:28 PM   #22592
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But if you are at a table with 3 pros that table is not going to be beatable if you are similar skill as the other pros without multiple fish spewing off chips. I sometimes am at a table where every player I estimate is break even or better overall. Such a game is not beatable. In fact in such a game the break even players are losing and the winning players breaking even with perhaps the very best player modestly winning.

It is kind of illusory to think of someone as a winning player since it all depends on the table. The trick is finding games where we are vastly superior to other players. If I see 3 pros at a table I transfer or leave because I'm just wasting time otherwise.
I agree with you in regards to table selection. I also tend to go to the table with the least pros/grinders. One mistake I think a lot of pros make is they go to the game that is playing the biggest or the one that has the biggest whale rather than the table that is the softest. Often times all the pros will transfer to one table leaving other less exciting tables to be more profitable.

That being said playing with 3 other pros can still be very profitable for the simple fact that there are still 5 rec players at the table and these players tend to be terrible (regardless of whether they are spewing) and most of the hands you play will be against these rec players rather than the pros anyways.

FWIW, I've played with tables that have had 8 pros or even 9 pros at them. I tend to avoid these sort of games but even a game with 9 pros can be profitable because pros don't play their A game 100% of the time and playing in such a game becomes a war of attrition that normally results in some of the pros making mistakes (Also, all pros aren't equal).
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Old 11-21-2018, 02:39 PM   #22593
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
For a while during my previous session, I was sitting at a table with 3 other very solid players (all undoubtedly winners), something I almost never do. But I was also sitting with 3 incredibly terrible players (all of whom I had actually never played with before but it was clear they had no clue what they were doing). I had actually had no idea how to evaluate the goodness/badness of the table overall.

Put my name in for a table change, didn't put up a stink when the floor filled my chair at the other table with a new player, and eventually just called it a night when one of the marks left and the other ones stack dwindled to super short.

GcluelessingeneralG


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Old 11-22-2018, 12:03 AM   #22594
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For a while during my previous session, I was sitting at a table with 3 other very solid players (all undoubtedly winners), something I almost never do. But I was also sitting with 3 incredibly terrible players (all of whom I had actually never played with before but it was clear they had no clue what they were doing). I had actually had no idea how to evaluate the goodness/badness of the table overall.
That is most likely a very good table. Games with multiple pros can be quite profitable IF you have terrible spewtards at the game. The worst players often lose at 100BB an hour or more. If you have three of these guys they are basically donating 300BB/hr to the remaining six players. There are rake considerations but if 200BB/hr is chopped up amongst the remaining six players you get 33 BB/hr.

Of course they may not be quite that bad and the other pros may get a bigger share than you but a few whales can feed a whole table of sharks.

I evaluate games by estimating the winrates of various players on average.

For example...we have a game where the other players are

one crusher wins 12BB/HR
two pros win 8BB/HR
one nit wins 5BB/HR
three regfish losing 10BB/HR
one donk losing 50BB/HR

So on net the players are donating (10*3 + 50 - 5 - 2*8 - 12) = 55BB/HR to the house and other players. If we are the first or second best player this is a decent game. Notice what a huge effect the one donk has.

But here's another game where no one is particularly good but we would have trouble making much money

four nits win 5BB/HR
two super nits break even
two regfish lose 10BB/HR

At a table like this I am definitely the best player but the others are donating and taking pots at rates that cancel each other. This game is not beatable. The money is not being lost fast enough. Yeah I can probably win a little but I have to pay rake averaging several blinds an hour.

This is admittedly an overly simplistic table analysis as these winrates are not how the player performs at that specific table. Nits for instance are able to win because spewtards donate to them when they hit sets. At this second table it is likely every other player is actually losing, but they are mostly losing to the house in this dynamic so I still prefer the first table.

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I agree with you in regards to table selection. I also tend to go to the table with the least pros/grinders. One mistake I think a lot of pros make is they go to the game that is playing the biggest or the one that has the biggest whale rather than the table that is the softest. Often times all the pros will transfer to one table leaving other less exciting tables to be more profitable.
Yeah I would generally rather be at a table with nobody light 3 betting me or bluffing me where I can run over the modestly losing players than be at a table with one whale and a bunch of pros. But occasionally the one whale is so bad it's worth it. I've seen drunk maniacs losing at a rate of 300+BB/HR over long periods. These tables are just massively profitable when they exist. But most whales aren't losing anywhere close to that fast so I agree the pros might overestimate the benefit of transferring to the whales table.

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That being said playing with 3 other pros can still be very profitable for the simple fact that there are still 5 rec players at the table and these players tend to be terrible (regardless of whether they are spewing) and most of the hands you play will be against these rec players rather than the pros anyways.
Sure it can be. Depends on the exact dynamic. But sometimes you have an overly aggressive pro regwarring with you and I try to avoid that at all costs. Especially if the other recs are just modestly losing. Just because players are recreational doesn't mean they're terrible. I mean yeah they likely aren't *good* but where I play anyway they are usually skilled enough to be break even or better at 1/2 so in 2/5 games they are just slightly losing.

If the other pros aren't the aggro regwarring crusher type then sharing a table with them is more profitable.

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FWIW, I've played with tables that have had 8 pros or even 9 pros at them. I tend to avoid these sort of games but even a game with 9 pros can be profitable because pros don't play their A game 100% of the time and playing in such a game becomes a war of attrition that normally results in some of the pros making mistakes (Also, all pros aren't equal).
This is true...in these types of games some pros will run bad and get very tilted which can make these games profitable if you're more tilt immune than the others. And if you're more fundamentally skilled of course. But I don't like assuming I'm better than other pros. It's a dangerous mindset and even when true can get us in trouble regwarring with slightly worse players when we should mostly be focusing on crushing the fish.

There are a few pros in my room that when tilted basically become whales because they bring with them 1000BB or more, always buy in max, and are capable of spewing off stacks when running really bad. Recs tilt too but they don't bring 1000BB and rebuy max indefinitely, if they rebuy at all. I think in tough games tilted pros are actually the main source of profit.
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Old 11-22-2018, 02:59 AM   #22595
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But here's another game where no one is particularly good but we would have trouble making much money

four nits win 5BB/HR
two super nits break even
two regfish lose 10BB/HR
This looks like a dream table to me. I get to play tons of hands with the 2 fish while the other players are waiting for the nuts. 6 of the players are of no concern whatsoever, and 2 might as well not even be there. If I can get those 2 on my left then I have the button 3 times an orbit. I only need position on one or 2 of the regfish which it's likely I'll be able to get if I don't already have it.
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Old 11-22-2018, 09:00 AM   #22596
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four nits win 5BB/HR
two super nits break even
two regfish lose 10BB/HR
This pretty much describes my daytime tables. Ive often said it was very tough to win much money here, but I made some big adjustments going more and more into LAG mode and my last 500+hrs Im at 15.3BB/hr

(Not all the hours were at tables like this but the majority were)
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Old 11-22-2018, 09:30 AM   #22597
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This pretty much describes my daytime tables. Ive often said it was very tough to win much money here, but I made some big adjustments going more and more into LAG mode and my last 500+hrs Im at 15.3BB/hr

(Not all the hours were at tables like this but the majority were)
Hey Mike how many sets have you flopped in the last 750 hours??? Of those what % were won?

Spoiler:
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Old 11-22-2018, 09:55 AM   #22598
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Hey Mike how many sets have you flopped in the last 750 hours???
All

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Of those what % were won?
Most
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Old 11-22-2018, 10:54 AM   #22599
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Hey Mike how many sets have you flopped in the last 750 hours??? Of those what % were won?

Spoiler:
1) 160
2) Not sure but most obviously



PS....Bitcoin?
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Old 11-22-2018, 11:24 AM   #22600
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1) 160
2) Not sure but most obviously



PS....Bitcoin?
Give er time Mikeyy, give er time...
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