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Old 08-24-2012, 12:32 PM   #2226
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Re: Expected Win Rate in BB's $1-2 NLH Live

To be real clear, I mean the final result ambition is to play 1-2 for a living.
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:29 PM   #2227
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Re: Expected Win Rate in BB's $1-2 NLH Live

the expected outcome is boredom, then either a worthless resume or suicide

don't play 1/2 for a living
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:30 PM   #2228
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Re: Expected Win Rate in BB's $1-2 NLH Live

You can play $.50 / $1.00 NLHE at Bills Gamlbing Saloon in Vegas. It really is where a micro kids dream can come true of earning $7 an hour as a pro. Might hafta live in the sewers though
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Old 08-24-2012, 05:31 PM   #2229
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Re: Expected Win Rate in BB's $1-2 NLH Live

Quote:
Originally Posted by pengoreagle View Post
I have come to the experts to find an answer to my question. What rate of return in BB's should I be looking for if I was playing $1-2 NLH live for a living?
Probably a level. Otherwise, this is probably going to get ugly.

I've never once in my life, in real life, met someone who verifiably played 1/2 NL as their sole means of living an adult life for an extended period of time. It's like Bigfoot, it exists only in rumor.

People who post inquiries like this generally post a few times, ignore any and all advice they're given, go ahead and start playing, post a few more times with results, and then vanish, never to be heard from again.
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Old 08-24-2012, 08:16 PM   #2230
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I dont play for a living but I do have $38/hour over 660 hours at 1/2 and firmly believe that I could play 1/2 for a living if I wanted to (tho IMO it would be -EV longterm b/c of my other prospects).

IMO, its impossible to make a living at a $200 max game or a game with a overly high rake.
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Old 08-25-2012, 01:20 AM   #2231
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

One could make a living at $200 max...it would just be a ****ty living.
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:04 PM   #2232
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Shuffle- you need to plug some leaks dude
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Old 08-30-2012, 12:24 AM   #2233
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How many hours of live play until someone begins to see a trend of a losing/winning player?

And how many buy-ins is a typical live downswing?

Thx in advance.

ETA: Tried searching but feature is horrible(android app).

Last edited by serio562; 08-30-2012 at 12:30 AM.
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Old 08-30-2012, 12:26 AM   #2234
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You should be able to figure out whether you're a winning player after about 100 - 200 hours.

4-5 BI loss is nothing crazy for me in a session. 10 - 15 is getting to be serious.
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Old 08-30-2012, 12:39 AM   #2235
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You should be able to figure out whether you're a winning player after about 100 - 200 hours.

4-5 BI loss is nothing crazy for me in a session. 10 - 15 is getting to be serious.
Thx for quick response. For a little over two years I was a winning player but never took an hourly rate, only total Bank roll totals.

A few weeks ago I began fresh and have played about 45 hours. In that time frame have lost about 4-6 buy ins in 11 sessions with -$32 hourly. Also, 90% of my sessions were in the middle of the day. Admittedly, I could have played better.

How worried should I be about my play in scale of 1 to 10?(10 the highest)

ETA: Should i post this in beginner questions, LLSN, etc?
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Old 08-30-2012, 12:43 AM   #2236
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45 hours is a really small sample size, I wouldn't worry too much.

Try posting more hands in this forum and focus on thinking and playing correctly.
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Old 08-30-2012, 02:09 AM   #2237
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yeah in my ridiculously over EV sample there has been some 80 hour periods where my hourly was like - 50 or something.
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Old 08-30-2012, 04:03 PM   #2238
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4-5BI downswings are fairly common. More extreme downswings like 10-12 BI's happen rarely but do still happen. You should always be examining your play, buy i wouldnt get to worried about a 5 bi downswing.
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Old 08-30-2012, 06:12 PM   #2239
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb View Post
Probably a level. Otherwise, this is probably going to get ugly.

I've never once in my life, in real life, met someone who verifiably played 1/2 NL as their sole means of living an adult life for an extended period of time. It's like Bigfoot, it exists only in rumor.

People who post inquiries like this generally post a few times, ignore any and all advice they're given, go ahead and start playing, post a few more times with results, and then vanish, never to be heard from again.
It's fine for you to say that you've never met someone who plays 1/2 for a living. What is problematic is when you infer from that that there are no such people.

I've been playing live in Vegas for a year, and in that time I have met 5 or 6 guys who play 1/2 for a living. The guy I am most familiar with is a guy who has been doing it successfully for 4 years. I've spoken to him extensively, and his claims have been verified by dealers and floor personnel.

He is the exception in that he chooses to stay at 1/2. Most of the people who play 1/2 for a living that i have met consider it an entry level job, and are looking to move up quickly. This is probably the reason most people who claim to play 1/2 for a living disappear; because they take a shot quickly and either bust or move up permanently.


As for the kind of living you can make--it's comparable to other entry level jobs, I would imagine. Just do the math on $18/hr x 1500 hours or so--those are both modest numbers, but they allow you more than enough to live frugally while you build a roll.
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Old 09-05-2012, 12:27 PM   #2240
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Question for LLSNL "professional players"

Hey all!

Hope this is in the right place. For those who make all or most of their income from live poker post BF, how do you distribute your net prof? What % do you put toward bills, your BR, savings, etc. I also understand having minimum 6 months of bills saved is crucial, and I would probably aim for 9-12.

I'm going to switch from my current job to live poker for my sole income. Reasons are freedom and love of the game. I'm going back to school to finish my degree, and prefer the flexibility of a poker schedule to any "real" job.

I've always made a solid hourly at 1/3, 2/3, and feel it would more than suffice for me to live. Also, since this will be my sole income, should my BR be higher than what's standard? I will have time to fit poker studies into my schedule, even with school and a social life, so I plan on getting better while pursuing the degree. Out of curiosity, what do some FT players on here average hourly, and at what stakes?

Sorry it was long, thanks to anyone for actually reading it, and any feedback is appreciated!
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Old 09-05-2012, 12:57 PM   #2241
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Re: Question for LLSNL "professional players"

This is basically a function of what your expenses are and how many hours you play a week
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Old 09-05-2012, 01:05 PM   #2242
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Re: Question for LLSNL "professional players"

How many hours of poker have you played?

A lot of people who try to "turn pro" fail because they ran good in a limited sample and overestimated their edge/winrate.

And note that playing poker, especially live poker for a living is a stressful job. When you win everything is great, but when you lose you have no other income to fall back on. You may go 2-3 months without winning. Can you handle that?
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Old 09-05-2012, 01:30 PM   #2243
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When you have a fixed BR, you need a much larger one. 1. For RoR reasons and 2. For psychological reasons.

I would recommend having 50 BIs for the limit you plan to play(@100bb). Move up when you have 50 for the next level and move down if you drop back to having 50 for the lvl below.

Work out how much your cost of living is each month and that will give you an idea of how many hrs you need to play and how realistic it will be for you to do this playing 1/2, etc. there are tons of stuff about win rates but just estimate conservatively.

Also before you quit your job, see if you can take a week off or so. Then do a practice week of what days and hours you would play as if you were on your own.

Poker can provide a certain freedom, but the pressure to make money can actually enslave you to the game, especially at low stakes where you can't make as much so have to put in a lot of hours if you want to pay the bills and build your roll.

So better find out now how much you love the game. Because you will have to work hard. If you don't, you will likely go broke.
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Old 09-05-2012, 01:35 PM   #2244
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Re: Question for LLSNL "professional players"

I would keep a part time job atleast until a sufficient sample size has passed (10k hands min) - something meaningless so you can spend most of your job studying poker and dont care if you get fired...yet the security of the job helps you have confidence at the table when you start out

6+ months of bills saved is key (rent, bills, gas, food, etc)

Side BR of 10-20 BI min

Put more into your BR than into bank each week (67-33%) or 2:1

A) Figure out how much you make an hr...B) total your bills for the month...divide B by A...multiply by 3...thats how many hours you should work a month

Enjoy your freedom. Change the above to any way you feel comfy but thats the jist

My 2cents
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Old 09-05-2012, 01:40 PM   #2245
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Re: Question for LLSNL "professional players"

I would also like to point out that you need insurance!
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Old 09-05-2012, 01:41 PM   #2246
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Re: Question for LLSNL "professional players"

Quote:
Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
How many hours of poker have you played?

A lot of people who try to "turn pro" fail because they ran good in a limited sample and overestimated their edge/winrate.

And note that playing poker, especially live poker for a living is a stressful job. When you win everything is great, but when you lose you have no other income to fall back on. You may go 2-3 months without winning. Can you handle that?
Yeah. I'm pretty neutral on the money and more concentrated on my decisions while I play. I've had a FT job the past 2 years, so I didn't play live as much as I wanted. I've played about 400-500 hours this year. I've also logged at least another 500 the year before, again as part time play. I understand the swings in poker, and had experienced some fun ones pre BF online, but I have great BR management. I'm confident I can handle 2-3 months of losing sessions, because I fully understand the variance aspect of the game. I'm not sure if 1000 hours is a good enough sample for live play, however. I don't think I'm overestimating my edge in these games, I'm usually honest with myself, and am continually trying to improve. Again, I've never exp a 2-3 month downswing, but I think I could handle it psychologically. If I am overestimating everything I will have 9-12 months bills saved at all times, and could come back down to Earth and get another job.
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Old 09-05-2012, 01:45 PM   #2247
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Re: Question for LLSNL "professional players"

KK thanks for all the posts guys! I will definitely take some time off to give it a shot. I've logged over 20k hands in the past 3 years, and the results have been good. I will be sure to take it slow and be smart about it though.
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Old 09-05-2012, 01:55 PM   #2248
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Re: Question for LLSNL "professional players"

And I'm not trying to come off like I know it all, in case it seems that way. More input is always welcome!
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Old 09-05-2012, 02:39 PM   #2249
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Re: Question for LLSNL "professional players"

20k hands is nothing, and also if most of your winrate is from the weekends, the games during the weekdays tend to be quite a bit different
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Old 09-05-2012, 02:56 PM   #2250
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Re: Question for LLSNL "professional players"

Yes that's the biggest thing rec players who go full time fail to take into acct is how much of their time logged has been on Fri and Sat nights. If you need more hrs to meet your goals then you will at some point be forced to put in hrs during less optimal times which will cut into your hourly.

I'm in the group that advocates having a job and playing part time as the best option. You make a steady income during hrs that are not optimal to play anyways for poker, and you maximize the times that you do play because you are playing at peak times.

And 20k hands is not "nothing". You will certainly have a good idea if you are winning or not. It's just not a big enough sample to say that you are winning at x rate without a doubt. It's enough to probably know if you are beating the game or not, just not for how much.
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