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Old 09-22-2018, 04:54 PM   #22376
KatoKrazy
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DrChesspain View Post
If you don't mind me asking, when was the last time you lost 1200+bb in a single session?


Probably about 6 months ago before I moved to SoCal. I used to play in an insane 1/2 NL 300 max game where I would have at least a couple sessions of +/- 3500 every few months.


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Old 09-22-2018, 05:33 PM   #22377
Shai Hulud
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
Probably about 6 months ago before I moved to SoCal. I used to play in an insane 1/2 NL 300 max game where I would have at least a couple sessions of +/- 3500 every few months.


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I've lost over 2k a couple times in 1/2 games. My worst was probably around 1200BB. It happens. At least it does if you play LAGGY which I was at the time. My overall winrate was pretty good despite such losses. Around 10bb/hr IIRC.
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Old 09-22-2018, 06:02 PM   #22378
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Welcome back, Shai. Sorry to hear about your health issues. Hope you get a good session under your belt to get your head back in the game.
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Old 09-22-2018, 11:50 PM   #22379
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
Probably about 6 months ago before I moved to SoCal. I used to play in an insane 1/2 NL 300 max game where I would have at least a couple sessions of +/- 3500 every few months.


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where was this 1/2 game?
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Old 09-23-2018, 12:34 AM   #22380
KatoKrazy
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

A little casino on the IA/MN border.
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Old 09-24-2018, 04:34 PM   #22381
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I got really curious / bored today and back ported all of my sessions for 2018 from Poker Mate to Poker Bankroll Tracker so I could get some fancy graphs and automatic Standard Deviation calculations. With the STD stats I can also do 95% confidence calcs using formulas from earlier in this thread. My hours this year are probably about cut in half due to life stuffs. Using this calculation, how many hours should I have in before I give these numbers some credit for being accurate?

All games combined 2018:
(1/2, 1/3, one 1/3/6 session, mostly 2/5, one 2/5/10 session)
Hours - 180 (151 of them are 2/5)
BB/Hr - 17.99
STDV BB/Hr - 90.64
95% Conf modifier: (2*90.64/SQRT(180)) = 13.51
Resulting BB/Hr 95% Conf range: 4.48 - 31.5

2018 Filtered for just 2/5:
Hours - 151
BB/Hr - 15.24
STDV BB/Hr - 66.26
95% Conf modifier: (2*66.26/SQRT(151)) = 10.78
Resulting BB/Hr 95% Conf range: 4.46 - 26.02

Is this all "LOL sample size"? If so when can I feel like it's real? 250 hrs? 500 hrs?

Last edited by c0rnBr34d; 09-24-2018 at 04:54 PM.
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Old 09-24-2018, 05:12 PM   #22382
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hi all,

I had my worst session in several months last night. Down about $930 (in 22 hours). BR took a hit from $7k to around $6k.

What would you do now? Just looking for feedback in a tough time....

Thanks,
DT
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Old 09-24-2018, 05:41 PM   #22383
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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
Hi all,

I had my worst session in several months last night. Down about $930 (in 22 hours). BR took a hit from $7k to around $6k.

What would you do now? Just looking for feedback in a tough time....

Thanks,
DT
If you've moved up to 2/5NL, then I'd suggest moving back down to 1/3 NL where you're more comfortable just to clear your head / take a breather.

I know you put in monster sessions, and each to their own and whatever, but you're going to have a hard time convincing me you're at your peak at the end of those sessions. Perhaps just try putting in some shorter sessions, maybe even quitting some while up to get some mental momentum going.

Otherwise, a $1K "downswing" at 1/3 NL is like nothing (i.e. get used to it, cuz you'll have many more, and for much worse).

Ggoodluck!G
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Old 09-24-2018, 05:43 PM   #22384
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

DT: Get back on the horse. Don't force it.

cornbread: those confidence intervals will shrink a lot by about 500 hours, but still pretty wide. At least they are all positive numbers!
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Old 09-24-2018, 06:01 PM   #22385
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Would you think switching to tourneys for a little bit is a good adjustment coming off of a loss like this?
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Old 09-24-2018, 06:15 PM   #22386
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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
Would you think switching to tourneys for a little bit is a good adjustment coming off of a loss like this?
I don't ever play tourneys, but aren't they (a) completely different than cash and (b) just long periods of constant losing before eventually binking?

Gnotsurehowthatwouldhelp,butwhateverkeepsyouafloat mentallyG
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Old 09-24-2018, 06:27 PM   #22387
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
Hi all,

I had my worst session in several months last night. Down about $930 (in 22 hours). BR took a hit from $7k to around $6k.

What would you do now? Just looking for feedback in a tough time....

Thanks,
DT
Drop down immediately
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Old 09-24-2018, 06:38 PM   #22388
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you're playing 2/5 with a 7k bankroll, it's just a matter of time before you're broke.
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Old 09-24-2018, 06:43 PM   #22389
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Would you think switching to tourneys for a little bit is a good adjustment coming off of a loss like this?
Good god, no! Donkaments are ridiculously high variance, and the small ones you can afford to play are so over-raked that they are unbeatable long term.
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Old 09-24-2018, 06:47 PM   #22390
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Drop down from 1/3? I lost this in 1/3 not 2/5.
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Old 09-24-2018, 06:48 PM   #22391
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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
Hi all,

I had my worst session in several months last night. Down about $930 (in 22 hours). BR took a hit from $7k to around $6k.

What would you do now? Just looking for feedback in a tough time....

Thanks,
DT
Id start with not playing 22 hours straight. If you think you are making good decisions 20+ hours into a session with no sleep, you are a fool.
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Old 09-24-2018, 06:50 PM   #22392
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
Drop down from 1/3? I lost this in 1/3 not 2/5.


Just toughen the **** up.

Losses happen, you just have to play as well as you can and wait for it to turn. Be aware of how you’re playing at all times and stand up/go for a walk/quit if you find yourself tilting or playing bad poker
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Old 09-24-2018, 07:02 PM   #22393
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
Hi all,

I had my worst session in several months last night. Down about $930 (in 22 hours). BR took a hit from $7k to around $6k.

What would you do now? Just looking for feedback in a tough time....

Thanks,
DT
Along the same vein as what was mentioned before about not playing 22 hours, I'd recommend setting a stop loss and only bringing 2-3 BI to the casino with you. Whether you lose those buyins through coolers or through bad play, your mental state is very likely to be in a non-ideal spot which can lead to compounding mistakes. Also, short-buying to something like 200 in 1/3 can not only help you stay within the confines of your stop loss while still getting a good amount of volume in, but also simplify decisions to start your sessions, forcing you to feel out the table before opening up. It may not be max +EV in terms of poker being one big session and all that, but we're not robots and retaining some peace of mind that allows you to play better longer is infinitely valuable.
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Old 09-24-2018, 09:52 PM   #22394
Shai Hulud
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Drop down from 1/3? I lost this in 1/3 not 2/5.
That's not that bad a loss. Just keep playing and analyze your game looking for leaks.

I agree with Mike on session length. Don't play 22h. Everyone has a point of diminishing returns where after playing x hours they start winning less and less per hour. This is due both to fatigue and depending on when you play, changing game conditions. If you normally start at 7 PM you would have diminishing returns by 7 AM for sure as the morning games tend to be much tougher.

For me x = 8 roughly. After 8 hours I start to lose some focus. I can go 12 hours but by then I'm definitely on my B game. More than 12 and I'm massively fatigued. Everyone is different...maybe 12 is nothing to you but it's doubtful you're on your A game for 22 hours. And even if you are, such long sessions necessitate you playing a lot of off hours where your winrate will be lower.

My advice...don't be alarmed by the loss but switch to playing shorter sessions and during premium days/hours. This would be weekends, days with special promos, and hourly roughly 6PM to 4AM.
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Old 09-24-2018, 11:01 PM   #22395
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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
That's not that bad a loss. Just keep playing and analyze your game looking for leaks.

I agree with Mike on session length. Don't play 22h. Everyone has a point of diminishing returns where after playing x hours they start winning less and less per hour. This is due both to fatigue and depending on when you play, changing game conditions. If you normally start at 7 PM you would have diminishing returns by 7 AM for sure as the morning games tend to be much tougher.

For me x = 8 roughly. After 8 hours I start to lose some focus. I can go 12 hours but by then I'm definitely on my B game. More than 12 and I'm massively fatigued. Everyone is different...maybe 12 is nothing to you but it's doubtful you're on your A game for 22 hours. And even if you are, such long sessions necessitate you playing a lot of off hours where your winrate will be lower.

My advice...don't be alarmed by the loss but switch to playing shorter sessions and during premium days/hours. This would be weekends, days with special promos, and hourly roughly 6PM to 4AM.
It’s funny because Saturday has been my worst day/night out of them all. My best days are Monday through Wednesday. Seem to be plenty of fish these days.

I’ve done my best when I’ve stuck to 3-6 hour sessions. I strayed from this plan which was a mistake. This session I started on a bad variance downswing (QQ ran into AA and KK pre, then second nut flush got outdrawn on river by nut flush). I think these losses may have affected my play. Next time I lose two BI to variance I’ll call it a night.
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Old 09-24-2018, 11:06 PM   #22396
KatoKrazy
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It's been my experience that in most non-Vegas locations the games are best on weekday evenings and worst on the weekend when all the weekend warrior grinder types come out.
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Old 09-24-2018, 11:44 PM   #22397
Shai Hulud
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It's been my experience that in most non-Vegas locations the games are best on weekday evenings and worst on the weekend when all the weekend warrior grinder types come out.
Hmm...definitely not like that in Tampa. Weekdays are grinderfests. Weekends have about twice as much traffic and maybe half as many grinders per table. My weekend winrate is ridiculous. And the big games only get going during weekends.

I'm not really counting Sunday. That's the beginning of the week and for reasons I can't figure out Sundays seem to be one of the worst days to play.
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Old 09-24-2018, 11:47 PM   #22398
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Sunday is by far my best day. That kinda sucks because I dont play on Sunday during football season. Some things are more important than poker.
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Old 09-24-2018, 11:50 PM   #22399
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Maybe its not the good thread for this question, but are you guys in a relationship or have a family? I would want to try poker full time but we are not sure how it will affect our couple...

We thought the best would be if I work night time (8pm - 4 am) so we can still eat dinner together.

What are your toughts/opinions?

We are 24 yo. And I'm really sick of my 9 to 5 corporate job... I cant do it anymore... i asked to do 4 days a week ! Maybe as a transition if I go poker full time. I feel like if I dont try it, I will regret it when I'm older... my girlfriend supports me so that's good but I would love to hear how you handle your family time/poker schedule?

Redirect me to another thread if its not the place
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Old 09-25-2018, 09:11 AM   #22400
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

For the love of god, don't quit a stable job to do poker, even if your gf supports you.

I'm not a relationship guru, but women just don't grasp the variance and swings that come with poker and I've personally seen at least 1 marriage ruined by it (also young ones like you)

If the job lets you, keep doing 4 days/week and play poker on friday/weekends. If you can do that for a year without your relationship suffering, you may have a chance.
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