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Old 09-19-2018, 05:10 AM   #22351
bodybuilder32
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Curious to know what some 2/5 players biggest downswing has been. I'm currently on a 6.5k downswing and keep getting coolered and running extremely cold. I'm a conservative player so the variance has been much greater than average.
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Old 09-19-2018, 07:07 AM   #22352
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bodybuilder32 View Post
Curious to know what some 2/5 players biggest downswing has been. I'm currently on a 6.5k downswing and keep getting coolered and running extremely cold. I'm a conservative player so the variance has been much greater than average.
Giraffe peas
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Old 09-19-2018, 07:27 AM   #22353
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I only keep my stats with paper and pen in a notebook. I've lost my laptop and cell phone before with all my stats so I keep it pretty old school.
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Old 09-19-2018, 07:32 AM   #22354
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Another question:

How many hours do you think is necessary to assess your true win rate? I've seen 1000 hours thrown around but wasn't sure if that number is too low to account for all the variance in live poker. It seems like a couple of long doomsday downswing clustered together and long breakeven stretches of 300 hours + can skew your win rate down by close to 50 percent of what is expected.
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Old 09-19-2018, 08:53 AM   #22355
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

please search this thread. Both questions have come up before.

Clifs: You will never know your true winrate, but the more hours you have the more you can tighten your 95% confidence interval to get a "my winrate is 95% likely to be between X and Y" answer.
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Old 09-19-2018, 09:14 AM   #22356
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I only keep my stats with paper and pen in a notebook. I've lost my laptop and cell phone before with all my stats so I keep it pretty old school.
Google sheets though
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Old 09-19-2018, 09:32 AM   #22357
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bodybuilder32 View Post
Curious to know what some 2/5 players biggest downswing has been. I'm currently on a 6.5k downswing and keep getting coolered and running extremely cold. I'm a conservative player so the variance has been much greater than average.
I'd suggest limiting your session loss to a 2 BI max while going through this downswing.
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Old 09-19-2018, 10:02 AM   #22358
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My biggest downswing is about 8 buy ins. What I think is more important though is some measure of your biggest downswing divided by your win rate or even with your StnDev figured in...or something like that.

Clearly the more aggro you are and higher StnDev you have, the bigger the possible downswings are. The higher your overall win rate is, the less often and less steep your downswings will be.
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Old 09-19-2018, 10:14 AM   #22359
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Given the difference between card rooms, I often wondered if there's a standard "buy-in".

Is it 100BBs at your stake? Is it the max buy-in for the game that you're playing?

Which one is it.
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Old 09-19-2018, 11:18 AM   #22360
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Originally Posted by setintostraight View Post
Given the difference between card rooms, I often wondered if there's a standard "buy-in".

Is it 100BBs at your stake? Is it the max buy-in for the game that you're playing?

Which one is it.
I assume when someone says they are stuck 6.5 buy ins, they mean 650BBs. If not, they should specify what they really mean.
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Old 09-19-2018, 11:23 AM   #22361
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

He specifically said 6.5K, not 6.5 buy ins.

Wins and losses (including downswings) should be measured in terms of BB, not buy ins, to avoid any confusion, imo.
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Old 09-19-2018, 11:29 AM   #22362
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

ya, never got the point of quoting in buy-ins at all since it varies person to person; just say $ or bb's

just filtered for 2/5 only; looks like my biggest downswing is ~7.5k; with a few others in the 5-6k range also (w/ a few much larger downswings if you include larger games). It happens.

I would definitely not consider myself a conservative player though lol...

edit: since I buy in for 200bb that's only 7.5 buy-ins
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Old 09-19-2018, 11:31 AM   #22363
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I guess quoting it in BB is simply best. That said, it’ll always be unclear how serious it is without knowing buy in structure. I’ve lost 1500bb in the space of 2 nights in 1/1 £400 max which was only 6 buyin’s for me so sounds far worse than it actually is.
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Old 09-19-2018, 12:01 PM   #22364
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Comparing WR and downswings in BB is tough, since the game depends so much on the average stack depth. Which is kind of tied to the BI structure, but not exactly.

Either way, here's another post about winrate statistics with some references: https://www.reddit.com/r/poker/comme...will_converge/

The long and short of it is, a lot more than 1000 hours.
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Old 09-19-2018, 12:04 PM   #22365
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

5/5 max buy in $1,500.

Player A always buys in for $500 (100bb) at a time and player B always buys in for the max $1,500 (300bb).

If they are both on a $6,000 downswing, is Player A's downswing worse than Player B's because he's on a 12 buy in downswing as opposed to Player B's 4 buy in downswing?
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Old 09-19-2018, 12:59 PM   #22366
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

biggest downswing looks roughly between 10600 -> 7200 = 1700BB (all 1/2), and I buy in for 150BB. So 12+ buy-ins. And I don’t think I’m very aggro at all.



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Old 09-19-2018, 01:11 PM   #22367
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by genghiskan View Post
5/5 max buy in $1,500.

Player A always buys in for $500 (100bb) at a time and player B always buys in for the max $1,500 (300bb).

If they are both on a $6,000 downswing, is Player A's downswing worse than Player B's because he's on a 12 buy in downswing as opposed to Player B's 4 buy in downswing?
Yes. A's is worse.

Partially because it's more frustrating mentally to lose more bullets (for most people), and because if he's buying in shorter there's a higher chances that the absolute dollar amount means more to him.

Then regardless of the mental issues, it's a larger number of events to go the wrong way (probably). Which should be statistically less likely to happen than only 4 bad events. Just like losing X coin flips in a row.
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Old 09-19-2018, 03:33 PM   #22368
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

People itt talking about downswings equal to some of my session swings.
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Old 09-19-2018, 04:37 PM   #22369
MikeStarr
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Originally Posted by genghiskan View Post
He specifically said 6.5K, not 6.5 buy ins.

Wins and losses (including downswings) should be measured in terms of BB, not buy ins, to avoid any confusion, imo.
Ooooh, I missed that. -$6500 at $2/5 is getting up there IMO. Definitely more than Ive ever lost in one bad stretch.
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Old 09-21-2018, 01:12 AM   #22370
Cckid
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I recently started tracking my sessions with the run good app. I however have a couple questions.

Under manage data icon click on bankroll and I have added an amount to my "live br" once I click on that it shows my initial br deposit and the balance for that amount. However under details it doesn't show any updates whether positive or negative for cash games. And my balance always reflects the initial deposit. To find my current br after each session I have to view it under the results tab and click on either % stats or the graphs tab. Anyway to make the manage data tab update with each result as well? Or is that not possible at all?

Any suggestions appreciated thanks!
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Old 09-21-2018, 05:26 PM   #22371
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Whats your winrate's difference (1/2 and 2/5) during weekday (monday-friday 9am-4pm) vs night hours or weekend?
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Old 09-21-2018, 06:33 PM   #22372
MikeStarr
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Whats your winrate's difference (1/2 and 2/5) during weekday (monday-friday 9am-4pm) vs night hours or weekend?
After almost 4000 hours of 2/5, my "peak hours" win rate, which I define as after 6PM during the week and anytime on weekends...is 31% higher than non peak times.
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Old 09-21-2018, 10:00 PM   #22373
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cckid View Post
I recently started tracking my sessions with the run good app. I however have a couple questions.

Under manage data icon click on bankroll and I have added an amount to my "live br" once I click on that it shows my initial br deposit and the balance for that amount. However under details it doesn't show any updates whether positive or negative for cash games. And my balance always reflects the initial deposit. To find my current br after each session I have to view it under the results tab and click on either % stats or the graphs tab. Anyway to make the manage data tab update with each result as well? Or is that not possible at all?

Any suggestions appreciated thanks!
There's a thread on this app in the Commercial Software forum. Try here.
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Old 09-22-2018, 01:59 PM   #22374
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People itt talking about downswings equal to some of my session swings.
If you don't mind me asking, when was the last time you lost 1200+bb in a single session?
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Old 09-22-2018, 04:45 PM   #22375
Shai Hulud
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bodybuilder32 View Post
Curious to know what some 2/5 players biggest downswing has been. I'm currently on a 6.5k downswing and keep getting coolered and running extremely cold. I'm a conservative player so the variance has been much greater than average.
I lost about 9k in like two weeks. Pretty sure I was tilting by the end of that though and probably should have been like half that. My biggest winning streak is like 14k. Obviously biggest upswing larger but that's kind of meaningless for a winning player as it's basically just your lifetime earnings if not currently in a downswing. Assuming I'm using the term upswing correctly. And this is not over a large sample just like 400 hours.

Side note...good to be back. Those pesky illnesses that don't seem to happen to most of you guys left me out of commission for 5 weeks. My lungs randomly collapsed as my pleura filled with blood for no apparent reason. Two weeks at the hospital. They drained like 5 liters of blood from my lung pleura. No idea what caused it after hundreds of tests and a couple surgeries. *sigh* I'm going to die at like 34.

Finally got back to casino yesterday. Ran a bit bad but still, good to be back. Oh and I was hyperventilating like a noob whenever I had a good hand because I still can't breathe well. Decided to balance by hyperventilating in every big pot lol...

I would really like to post my graph at some point but at this rate I won't hit 1k hours for several months.
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