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Old 08-06-2018, 05:30 PM   #22126
stackz07
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People dont shovel chips at you anymore. You have to take them. You have to trick them. You wont be able to get 3 nice sized streets of value out of TP hardly ever. Playing TAG ABC will still win but not at a large win rate like it used to.
I've heard randomly here and there that lower stake live tourneys are still pretty soft?

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Old 08-06-2018, 05:36 PM   #22127
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I've heard randomly here and there that lower stake live tourneys are still pretty soft?

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I dont play tournaments but I have no doubt that they are donkfests. The players who bust out and come to the cash games are bad on an epic scale.
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Old 08-06-2018, 05:47 PM   #22128
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I dont play tournaments but I have no doubt that they are donkfests. The players who bust out and come to the cash games are bad on an epic scale.
Pm'd ya.

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Old 08-06-2018, 06:19 PM   #22129
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I've heard randomly here and there that lower stake live tourneys are still pretty soft?

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they may be but the variance in mtts is huge and it's going to take you forever to get to the long run.

as well as that...how low are you talking for low stakes and how many can you play in a day? Playing a daily $300 mtt which you have a 25% ROI is still only going to get you $75 per day
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Old 08-06-2018, 08:00 PM   #22130
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If you haven't played for seven or eight years, yes it gonna be hard and take some work to crush again even at low stakes. Black Friday alone made the games harder. Recently training sites like Upswing are turning a lot of fish into break even or slightly winning players which is no doubt a disaster.
Are you seriously worried about the fish studying upswing poker? Do you know how much content is out there, tons if it free, and the fish still call it off with top pair no kicker.

Most of the fish would misapply the concepts from upswing and become aggrotards. Some of your recent posts in the strategy forum have had me laughing due to fancy play at 1/3 you are attempting.
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Old 08-06-2018, 09:00 PM   #22131
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Jesus. Have been thinking about getting back into poker full time and the last few pages of this thread have been downright depressing. Is it really that hard to make a decent hourly at the low levels? I used to crush all over (vegas, asia, bit of europe) for about 10 years and quit in 2010/2011 due to business picking up.
It's tough but doable. I hadn't really played since 2011 but started playing live full time roughly one year ago. Made about 10BB/HR at 1/2 then moved up to 2/5 where I don't have a large sample yet but my winrate is on the absurd side.

Player pool is still quite weak but not as weak as it was so adjustments have to be made. The good thing about live though is pretty much everyone sucks even the winning players. There's almost nobody in my room I find particularly scary and I see lots of the "pros" doing dumb or transparent moves that might work on some of the fish but makes them easy to exploit.

I might find squid scary if I ever ran into him but at this point I think he's just a poker ghost story

But...if you have some decent paying legit job almost certainly better off sticking with that.
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Old 08-06-2018, 09:05 PM   #22132
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Most of the fish would misapply the concepts from upswing and become aggrotards. Some of your recent posts in the strategy forum have had me laughing due to fancy play at 1/3 you are attempting.

I can say that over the past year, I took some concepts from Polk's videos and misapplied them. However, I like to think that's part of the process of me becoming a better player.


Having said that, it's tough becoming good at something and most people don't do it.
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Old 08-06-2018, 09:20 PM   #22133
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I can say that over the past year, I took some concepts from Polk's videos and misapplied them. However, I like to think that's part of the process of me becoming a better player.


Having said that, it's tough becoming good at something and most people don't do it.
The thing about poker is to win significant money being good just doesn't cut it. You have to be pretty good relative to other players just to break even. To win you have to be significantly better. To crush you have to be way way better. Like 97th+ percentile by my guess.
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Old 08-06-2018, 09:40 PM   #22134
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I've seen Doug Polk spew so much $ in live poker. The guy plays GTO in a game filled with exploitable opponents where he fails to realize everyone's range is highly weighted toward value.

I love GTO strat talk. Its the new fish excuse to play every hand to showdown and to be the action donk at the table.
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Old 08-06-2018, 09:57 PM   #22135
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It's tough but doable. I hadn't really played since 2011 but started playing live full time roughly one year ago. Made about 10BB/HR at 1/2 then moved up to 2/5 where I don't have a large sample yet but my winrate is on the absurd side.

Player pool is still quite weak but not as weak as it was so adjustments have to be made. The good thing about live though is pretty much everyone sucks even the winning players. There's almost nobody in my room I find particularly scary and I see lots of the "pros" doing dumb or transparent moves that might work on some of the fish but makes them easy to exploit.

I might find squid scary if I ever ran into him but at this point I think he's just a poker ghost story

But...if you have some decent paying legit job almost certainly better off sticking with that.
Not sure why you would find squid face "scary". The guy has been playing since the 90's and hasn't moved up to 5/10 even tho he boasts of making more than 100k every year at 2/5.

My guess is, he does what most pros do and nits it up pretty hard at the table. This is the safest way to low variance income and the most efficient way to get the money. The guys that play "intimidating" or "scary" are usually break even lags that spew off all of their profit.
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Old 08-06-2018, 11:13 PM   #22136
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Not sure why you would find squid face "scary". The guy has been playing since the 90's and hasn't moved up to 5/10 even tho he boasts of making more than 100k every year at 2/5.

My guess is, he does what most pros do and nits it up pretty hard at the table. This is the safest way to low variance income and the most efficient way to get the money. The guys that play "intimidating" or "scary" are usually break even lags that spew off all of their profit.
not sure why you are firing shots at squid. i have a lot of respect for a guy who has grinded over the years and made a living off this game. this game blows and is depressing and stressful.

have you played in vegas? outside of the peak weekends/times (wsop, july 4th, whatever conferences) the games blow. its a bunch of nitty regs and locals. you have to do more than just sit there and nit it up to win at high rates. and even if he does just play an abc game - hes done it over many years and made a living from it.

for a long time i thought i was some sick LAG at $2/5 winning at 10 bb/hr for 500+ hours. and then i started to lose every all in i played.

if you can beat this game year after year after year for thousands of hours at 8-10+ bb/hr then i have nothing but respect for your work ethic and game.
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Old 08-06-2018, 11:23 PM   #22137
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not sure why you are firing shots at squid. i have a lot of respect for a guy who has grinded over the years and made a living off this game. this game blows and is depressing and stressful.

have you played in vegas? outside of the peak weekends/times (wsop, july 4th, whatever conferences) the games blow. its a bunch of nitty regs and locals. you have to do more than just sit there and nit it up to win at high rates. and even if he does just play an abc game - hes done it over many years and made a living from it.

for a long time i thought i was some sick LAG at $2/5 winning at 10 bb/hr for 500+ hours. and then i started to lose every all in i played.

if you can beat this game year after year after year for thousands of hours at 8-10+ bb/hr then i have nothing but respect for your work ethic and game.
He's not firing shots, he's just saying he doesn't play a crushing game. Bodybuilder you seem a bit agro man, no need for all the hostility towards everyone.

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Old 08-07-2018, 12:16 AM   #22138
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probably time for another mod intervention?
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Old 08-07-2018, 12:43 AM   #22139
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Are you seriously worried about the fish studying upswing poker? Do you know how much content is out there, tons if it free, and the fish still call it off with top pair no kicker.

Most of the fish would misapply the concepts from upswing and become aggrotards. Some of your recent posts in the strategy forum have had me laughing due to fancy play at 1/3 you are attempting.
Agree with this. Training sites only accelerate the learning of people who likely would've ended up good anyways. it's not like they are a replacement for hard work.

Just look at the pgc threads of fish who get good advice and get told to go study who don't even do it. And those are people that post on this site and sort of want to get better. How likely do you think it is for your avg live casino fish to go study on a training site if they even knew what it was? And a lot of them probably think they are actually good anyways.
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Old 08-07-2018, 03:26 AM   #22140
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He's not firing shots, he's just saying he doesn't play a crushing game. Bodybuilder you seem a bit agro man, no need for all the hostility towards everyone.

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Sry didn't mean to come off hostile.
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Old 08-07-2018, 04:41 AM   #22141
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Not sure why you would find squid face "scary". The guy has been playing since the 90's and hasn't moved up to 5/10 even tho he boasts of making more than 100k every year at 2/5.

My guess is, he does what most pros do and nits it up pretty hard at the table. This is the safest way to low variance income and the most efficient way to get the money. The guys that play "intimidating" or "scary" are usually break even lags that spew off all of their profit.
Thought the wink made it clear I wasn't being super serious.

Anyway I think we have different definitions of scary. LAGs and maniacs are not scary to me especially if losing LAGs as most are. They just spew money in your direction if you adjust properly. To me scary players are players better than I am who are aggressive enough to put me in lots of awkward spots where I don't really know what the correct decision is. So far I haven't really encountered anyone like this in my room. Squid plays in my room, or did, and I suspect he's better than the other pros I've run into, but I've yet to see him there after being here a while (hence me joking he's a ghost story).

Don't want to speak for him but pretty sure he's played lots of 5/T but prefers 2/5 for whatever reason. In this market the 2/5 games might be more lucrative, and the 5/T doesn't run every day. The 2/5 is certainly less stressful as well.

If one can make 12BB/hr at 2/5 or 7 BB/hr at 5/T one might reasonably choose to play 2/5 though you make a bit less money. Less waiting for seats however and there are almost always good 2/5 games while with 5/T you can't do much in the way of table selection. There's typically 0 to 2 5/T going here and the player pool is pretty small.

Personally my roll is big enough to start playing 5/T but I'm fine staying at 2/5 a while longer, probably six more months minimum. Trying to move up right now would just stress me out bigtime.
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Old 08-07-2018, 04:44 AM   #22142
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Are you seriously worried about the fish studying upswing poker? Do you know how much content is out there, tons if it free, and the fish still call it off with top pair no kicker.

Most of the fish would misapply the concepts from upswing and become aggrotards. Some of your recent posts in the strategy forum have had me laughing due to fancy play at 1/3 you are attempting.
I am worried. You're claiming that upswing will make them worse players. Sure some of them might bluff too much, but ultimately they will learn a sound preflop strategy and then the 4 hand categories will eventually teach them a sound postflop strategy. A -50 bb/hr fish can easily become a -30 bb/hr fish, then a -10 bb/hr fish then with some work, a break even player.

Funny how you say fish still call it off with TPNK. I just iso raised this huge station with AK to 18 at Aria 1/3. K22ss flop he check I bet 20 he calls. Should've bet bigger that was a mistake. Anyways Turn 7. He checks I bet 75 he calls. River 7 I bet 185 he tanks, shows a king and surprisingly folds. From a GTO perspective I shouldn't bet big because what bluffs do I have, but from an exploitative perspective a station shouldn't fold a king to a less than pot sized bet (I'm not even sure it's a GTO fold). But since this isn't 2010 anymore, a king folded!

Also, since I think you were the guy who said I had entitlement issues and that's why I'm "stuck" at 1/3, watch your attitude. I stand by my 3 bet in the thread I posted recently because given the way he played the hand and his turn sizing he rarely has a hand strong enough to continue OOP and deep. I don't FPS. All my plays are backed up by math. An ABC player will think some of the plays I make are ridiculous. That's fine. The math supports what I do. The variance will punish me, but I don't think it's good poker to sacrifice +EV plays to lower variance especially at 1/3. Yes it's fine to iso raise a big fish with 63s in position. Why? Because I'll either lose a small to medium pot trying to make him fold his trash or I'll win a huge pot when I make a big hand. Or I'll flop a pair and win a small to medium pot sometimes vs his bricked draws. It's that simple.

You trash talk squid and call him a nit, yet you trash talk my "FPS" moves. Good job not contradicting yourself.
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Old 08-07-2018, 06:37 AM   #22143
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I've seen Doug Polk spew so much $ in live poker. The guy plays GTO in a game filled with exploitable opponents where he fails to realize everyone's range is highly weighted toward value.

I love GTO strat talk. Its the new fish excuse to play every hand to showdown and to be the action donk at the table.
+1, totally agree with this. Even from a winrate point of view to keep it decently on track,i sincerly think guys like Doug Polk and Upswing isnt making it worse on the LLSNL market. Because just like you mention so many players misapplayingthe concepts they pick up from Polk and his courses (or is much more likely to do so), they often miss the context,forget about all other more important factors in low stakes games, and dont have the neccesary baseline/groundwork pinned down in order for them to apply the concepts in a correct sufficient way.

Instead fish,regfish and losing players have gotten some premium excuses to keep calling as is still LLSNL villains number one leak (on the top of my range, haz to cawl), i had blockers to the nutz (haz to cawl) or i had a good hand to bluff from some charts i have been studying, so therefore i spazzed out doubling up old man coffee who obviously was nutted. I see so much spew being done and defended by comments so that i instatly knows that the guys got their influences by sources such as Polk/Fee/Upswing.

Yes: the small amount of already winning players or players that have a clue AND are willing to work hard on their game will (possibly) get from a 2/5 slightly winning player to a crusher over time with the help from these sources. But in most instances the fish and losing players just got better more sound excuses to spew/make losing plays over and over again in my opinion.
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Old 08-07-2018, 09:37 AM   #22144
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Last 1000 hours of 2/5. The graph shows 1060 hours but that includes breaks. Its actually 1010 hours.

Win rate $50.18/hr
Winning sessions 67%
StnDev..$300.10 /hr

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Old 08-07-2018, 10:18 AM   #22145
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Admit it, Mike, you cherry picked it to have an almost exact 10BB/hr winrate

Either way, nice results!
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Old 08-07-2018, 10:22 AM   #22146
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Admit it, Mike, you cherry picked it to have an almost exact 10BB/hr winrate

Either way, nice results!
LOL.
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Old 08-07-2018, 11:09 AM   #22147
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Hello bodybuilder,

I have played a fair amt of 5/t in my time. I also have an absolute ton of hands at 1k nl on line from back in the UB days. In the gamboolin biz it is really important to be humble cuz as soon as you think you know everything you get dropkicked. 5/t kind of fell out of my rotation cuz it just wasnt being spread that much in my home casino (I am a massive fan of homefield advantage). For me life is not all about maximizing EV. It is more about maximizing low stress and having a good time. I personally found that playing 2/5 really hit that sweet spot for me. I could win at north of 50 bux per hr with effectively zero variance. I could also crank out a sht load of hours.

My kid is about to graduate college and my personal expenses are very low. I have plenty banked and it is no longer necessary for me to work. So I have not played poker in quite a while and I have zero intention of doing so in the future.

I know I have said it a mirrion times but after BF I told my woman I had about 2 years of live poker in me. I lasted nearly 7. Could I have won more playing 5/?t Sure. However, it would not have been nearly as smooth of a ride and I would not have played nearly as many hours. So maybe I actually won the most I could have. I do not know - but I do know that the amt I won was plenty for me to raise a kid and have a lot of fun with her at the same time.

I wish u and all the dudes on 2p2 the best and hope you make it to the highest steaks and get all teh maniez.
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Old 08-07-2018, 01:20 PM   #22148
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Hello bodybuilder,

I have played a fair amt of 5/t in my time. I also have an absolute ton of hands at 1k nl on line from back in the UB days. In the gamboolin biz it is really important to be humble cuz as soon as you think you know everything you get dropkicked. 5/t kind of fell out of my rotation cuz it just wasnt being spread that much in my home casino (I am a massive fan of homefield advantage). For me life is not all about maximizing EV. It is more about maximizing low stress and having a good time. I personally found that playing 2/5 really hit that sweet spot for me. I could win at north of 50 bux per hr with effectively zero variance. I could also crank out a sht load of hours.

My kid is about to graduate college and my personal expenses are very low. I have plenty banked and it is no longer necessary for me to work. So I have not played poker in quite a while and I have zero intention of doing so in the future.

I know I have said it a mirrion times but after BF I told my woman I had about 2 years of live poker in me. I lasted nearly 7. Could I have won more playing 5/?t Sure. However, it would not have been nearly as smooth of a ride and I would not have played nearly as many hours. So maybe I actually won the most I could have. I do not know - but I do know that the amt I won was plenty for me to raise a kid and have a lot of fun with her at the same time.

I wish u and all the dudes on 2p2 the best and hope you make it to the highest steaks and get all teh maniez.
Wins 2+2
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Old 08-07-2018, 01:51 PM   #22149
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Last 1000 hours of 2/5. The graph shows 1060 hours but that includes breaks. Its actually 1010 hours.

Win rate $50.18/hr
Winning sessions 67%
StnDev..$300.10 /hr

Crusher! You are proof of why it pays to not be a nit!
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Old 08-07-2018, 02:57 PM   #22150
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lol...thanks gator

also very nice giraffe mike. He is a perfect example of how low stress 2/5 is when you figure out the formula. Well done brotha!
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