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Old 08-03-2018, 08:30 PM   #22076
Badreg2017
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thanks Shai.

I go with option C. I take a lot of breaks to walk around when I play so I feel like I want to know what my actual winrate looks like. It also makes my winrate look as good as possible for when I want to brag on 2+2.

Option B would probably be better when comparing how much you could make playing poker as compared to another line of work. Between time at the cage, bathroom breaks, food breaks, and waiting for a game I know I can’t strictly compare my poker hourly to my hourly rate in my old career. I would say it takes me 9.25 hours to play 8 hours of poker.
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Old 08-03-2018, 08:34 PM   #22077
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when i played full time my hourly was time at the table. I had multiple years over 2k logged. Last year during the big promo SPC had logged approx 375 bravo hours in the calendar month (it was a 50 hr cycle, she nailed 7 promos and her w/r for the month was obscene). 150 is simply not that tough. It takes work to be able to log long sessions while maintaining focus. It doesnt happen overnight but with focus and discipline you can make it happen.
What did you find useful in helping you develop this focus and discipline? I know exercise has been good for me if for no other reason than it helps me sleep.

I’m a very driven person but I also have diagnosed ADD so focus for long periods of time is not usually my strong suit. If it’s not a particularly social game for instance I spend way too much time on my phone while I play which I know cuts into my winrate. A lot of my biggest sessions are when I’m hyper focused and thus able to play crazy exploitative.
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Old 08-04-2018, 12:43 AM   #22078
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8 hours into a session I’m just starting to hit my groove.
Must be nice. I feel like twice my age (am 32) and take three different meds that cause sleepiness and low energy as a side effect. For one (klonopin) it is more like the main effect. They keep me functional though so quitting not really an option at the moment.

I played 10 hour 1/2 sessions for a while but definitely noticed I made the most mistakes in the last two hours. So I've been limiting my 2/5 sessions to 8 hours max unless the game is crazy good in which case I'll power through it for a couple more hours.
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Old 08-04-2018, 04:52 AM   #22079
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Are there any younger pros that are worried the game won't be around later in their career? Maybe 15 or 20 years? If you look around most poker rooms it seems its mostly middle aged+ that populate the room. The game could shrivel up if there aren't any milennials that get hooked to the game.
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Old 08-04-2018, 05:12 AM   #22080
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Are there any younger pros that are worried the game won't be around later in their career? Maybe 15 or 20 years? If you look around most poker rooms it seems its mostly middle aged+ that populate the room. The game could shrivel up if there aren't any milennials that get hooked to the game.
Yes. I'm very worried the game could dry up, a different less beatable game becomes more popular, casinos universally increase the rake and winrates plummet, or a conservative political revival bans gambling at a national level.

Political changes are obviously the worst threat but more likely is the game just slowly shrivels as the population ages, as real wages stagnate and people have less disposable income (people gamble more when the economy is thriving), and casinos slowly but steadily increase the rake. Achievable winrates could be half what they are now in 15 to 20 years. Gotta make hay while the sun is shining and all that.

My nightmare is I put just enough time in to get really good and then get a repeat of Black Friday where Congress has randomly banned gambling. And I'm late 30s or older at this point with no marketable skills.

Only good news is it's even worse for casinos as far as millennials and the games the casinos want them to be playing like slots. Millennials just don't play slots and degen games at even close to the rate of previous generations. So casinos may be forced to keep card games around and find new ways to generate revenue.

I've also noticed there are few young rec players at games bigger than 1/3. Maybe they just don't have the money but most young guys I see a lot are winning players and most of the recs 50+. The young recs I do see are some of the worst players I've encountered. Really wish they'd play more often.
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Old 08-04-2018, 07:22 AM   #22081
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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
Yes. I'm very worried the game could dry up, a different less beatable game becomes more popular, casinos universally increase the rake and winrates plummet, or a conservative political revival bans gambling at a national level.

Political changes are obviously the worst threat but more likely is the game just slowly shrivels as the population ages, as real wages stagnate and people have less disposable income (people gamble more when the economy is thriving), and casinos slowly but steadily increase the rake. Achievable winrates could be half what they are now in 15 to 20 years. Gotta make hay while the sun is shining and all that.

My nightmare is I put just enough time in to get really good and then get a repeat of Black Friday where Congress has randomly banned gambling. And I'm late 30s or older at this point with no marketable skills.

Only good news is it's even worse for casinos as far as millennials and the games the casinos want them to be playing like slots. Millennials just don't play slots and degen games at even close to the rate of previous generations. So casinos may be forced to keep card games around and find new ways to generate revenue.

I've also noticed there are few young rec players at games bigger than 1/3. Maybe they just don't have the money but most young guys I see a lot are winning players and most of the recs 50+. The young recs I do see are some of the worst players I've encountered. Really wish they'd play more often.


Congress ain't banning gambling. Gambling is a state issue and while some states are run by the religious fanatics, others are more on the left. In the area I live in, I've seen like 6-8 new casinos within a few hours of me pop up in the past 10-15 years
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Old 08-04-2018, 08:30 AM   #22082
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How do you guys count hours played in calculating winrate? I figure there are three main ways to do it.

A) Count from when driving to casino to coming back

B) Count time once seated until leaving

C) Count actual time playing hands, e.g. if your casino uses Bravo they log you out briefly when you get up to use the restroom or the table breaks etc.

I spend about 9 to 10 hours driving to the casino waiting playing cashing out and getting back home after a typical session, which nets me 7 to 8 hours on Bravo. I've been tracking method C since I figure it is most accurate for winrate and it is what my casino uses for hourly promos.

But compared to someone using A I might have like 20% fewer hours. I'm going to try to hit 150 hours this month but that might be hard if it's more like 190 hours playing waiting or driving to/from the casino. I chose 150 because there is a 400 dollar promo every 75 hours. Really wish they did that ever 50 or 60 hours because getting 150 logged in Bravo is tough.

Not that the extra 400 is that important, just something to help motivate me to play more than 25 hours a week. I really want to post some result graphs but it takes freaking forever to grow a large sample size live.

/ramble
I count from seated until leaving. If there's a meal break in between it gets included in my poker hours as well.

Never had a good reason besides it's easier but it makes sense when I think about it. I can't control how long it takes to get to the casino, or how long it takes me to get a seat. It doesn't make sense to say I am worse at poker because there was a traffic jam. But I do need to take breaks, and those are things I can control. Once I am in a game I can play for eight hours straight or I can play for six hours and have two meal breaks; my bb/100 would probably be different between the two, I can make a decision that maximizes my hourly.

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Are there any younger pros that are worried the game won't be around later in their career? Maybe 15 or 20 years? If you look around most poker rooms it seems its mostly middle aged+ that populate the room. The game could shrivel up if there aren't any milennials that get hooked to the game.
I think casino poker has a lot of life left, but I do think it will become less and less accessible in the future. I started playing poker just before black friday, back when it was easy to dive right into .01/.02 online and start building a bankroll from nothing. With online poker drying up, new players won't have nearly as cheap an education.

Last edited by DK Barrel; 08-04-2018 at 08:36 AM.
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Old 08-04-2018, 08:46 AM   #22083
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I think casino poker has a lot of life left, but I do think it will become less and less accessible in the future. I started playing poker just before black friday, back when it was easy to dive right into .01/.02 online and start building a bankroll from nothing. With online poker drying up, new players won't have nearly as cheap an education.


Can't speak for rest of the world but in the states there are 3 states that have legalize online poker (nv, de, and nj) and they all share a player pool on at least 1 site (888/WSOP). Supposedly there are several more on cusp. As more states legalize it and join pacts with other states, it won't be long before a large population portion of the country will be playing together. It will also probably stay segregated from the rest of the world player pool for some time.

I doubt we see another Moneymaker boom, but there should be an uptick coming within like 5-10 years

I think some of the problem with lack of interest from younger people is just lack of disposable income. Disposable income comes with age for many people.
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Old 08-04-2018, 09:20 AM   #22084
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Congress ain't banning gambling. Gambling is a state issue and while some states are run by the religious fanatics, others are more on the left. In the area I live in, I've seen like 6-8 new casinos within a few hours of me pop up in the past 10-15 years
States have congresses too. If Florida banned poker I could move but it's a serious inconvenience.

The state/national divide is problematic and the main reason online poker is such a joke in the US. Only thing that's really going to revitalize poker like before would be national legalization of live and/or online gambling, and online would have to have a shared player pool. Preferably both. In the religious states with no casinos people still play poker for fun but they are just terrible at it. Can't imagine how juicy the games would be in Texas for instance if they legalized gambling. Plus low cost of living. Right now there aren't many good choices for where to grind 2/5 to 5/T. I put a lot of research into it. And for 10/20+ it's basically Vegas (expensive), DC (super expensive), or LA (super duper expensive).

We get some largish population states like Texas, New York, Illinois, Ohio, Georgia, etc. to legalize gambling there may be some hope. And I mean if it's full legalization like in Vegas and not just allowing high rake Indian casinos. Also would be great if Florida fully legalized it. Be nice if Seminole had some real competition like Caesars and MGM.

But...it's not much of a priority for either party to legalize gambling. Republicans tend to be against it for religious reasons. Democrats are often also against it because they think casinos unfairly target poor people.

In the long run I figure progress wins out and poker is legalized nationally but who knows how long that will take? I could be dead by then.

I remember before Black Friday feeling paranoid about the UIGEA and thinking the government wasn't going to tolerate online poker for long, but like most people with such concerns I wasn't taken seriously. Then one day I log on to Stars and it says players from my area can't play. I instantly know it's over.

I think a lot of the current online sites like ACR and Ignition are in pretty dubious legal territory and can get shut down whenever the government feels like it. Which is part of why I haven't even tried playing online in years. Lot of strip mall poker rooms in many states also in dubious legal territory. I'd say I'm lucky to live somewhere with legal casinos but most of my life I've lived in states without any, and I decided to move to Florida specifically to play poker, so, not lucky, but still grateful the entire nation isn't as backwards as some parts.

Thanks for triggering my paranoia with your off topic question whoever asked....

I'm just going to focus on the present. Fear is the mindkiller.
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Old 08-04-2018, 09:36 AM   #22085
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Name one state that has banned live poker once it was legalized. Name one state that has tightened gambling laws in the last 20 years? States make a ton of money from gambling tax revenue. Once they get used to that money, they are never going back.

Things move very very slow but gambling regulations are being loosened not tightened. I remember back when people said Texas would NEVER allow a state lottery. It took longer than most states but it got legalized eventually and 3-4 years ago they were only a few votes short of legalizing poker in Texas. They had the investor money lined up to open a large poker room in downtown Dallas. It will be legalized there eventually. Probably during the next recession when the state needs more tax revenue.
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Old 08-04-2018, 11:11 AM   #22086
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Weed is being legalized everywhere. NJ just legalized sports betting. The NBA just signed a sports betting deal with MGM.

Lol casinos are not going to be regulated out of existence.
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Old 08-04-2018, 11:36 AM   #22087
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Weed is being legalized everywhere. NJ just legalized sports betting. The NBA just signed a sports betting deal with MGM.

Lol casinos are not going to be regulated out of existence.
but dog tracks that house several poker rooms may soon be

see florida bill
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Old 08-04-2018, 11:43 AM   #22088
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What did you find useful in helping you develop this focus and discipline? I know exercise has been good for me if for no other reason than it helps me sleep.

I’m a very driven person but I also have diagnosed ADD so focus for long periods of time is not usually my strong suit. If it’s not a particularly social game for instance I spend way too much time on my phone while I play which I know cuts into my winrate. A lot of my biggest sessions are when I’m hyper focused and thus able to play crazy exploitative.
Diet and exercise are important imo. When I lived in vegas the wsop was a very important time to play. Leading up to the wsop was kind of like the calm before the storm. Even though the games were not particularly good I would deliberately start ramping up my hours so that I was fully prepared to be ready and capable of cranking out 60+hr weeks with A+ focus. I also knew exactly that the july 4th weekend would be the pinnacle of action (main event, july 4 weekend, venetian deepstack tourney - a trifecta of events if you will). And then it was break time so I had something to look foreword to.

The ability to crank out hours and play kick ass poker takes work. I remember coming from online after BF I would be wiped out after only a couple o hours - cuz thats how I played online. I had to build up SLOWLY. Take an orbit off here and there to recharge, etc. That ability to focus is kind of like a muscle working out. You are not gunna be able to squat 2x yer body weight as a newb. That takes time and commitment. Same thing with logging hours with total focus
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Old 08-04-2018, 03:11 PM   #22089
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Are there any younger pros that are worried the game won't be around later in their career? Maybe 15 or 20 years? If you look around most poker rooms it seems its mostly middle aged+ that populate the room. The game could shrivel up if there aren't any milennials that get hooked to the game.
I'm not a pro I'm just temporarily grinding full time, but yes I'm very worried that in 20 years the game will be either unbeatable or close enough to unbeatable that it won't be worth my time. I really regret quitting my 9-5 back in the day to play online poker. Now I'm trying to finish a second degree to get back into the 9-5 world. I really hope a year from now I'll be playing 2/5 mostly for fun and won't be on this forum and the casino everyday.

I wouldn't recommend professional poker to anyone these days. Ever since Black Friday the games have gotten worse and worse both online and live. Just between this year and last year I've noticed quite a difference in the quality of Vegas games (thanks Doug Polk). In order for it to get better, there needs to be less pros (not gonna happen with this economy) and millennials need to have more disposable income so that a 25 year old is more likely to be a fish than a grinder (again not gonna happen with this economy). In addition, inflation and rake increase without stake increase will slowly make your hourly decrease unless you are improving and either crushing your current stake more or moving up. But like the gym, everyone will plateau eventually (let's not open a new can of worms and debate this).

The only good thing that's happened recently is a lot of 1/2 games turning into 1/3 games, which effectively increases your win rate by 50% if you're a 1/2 player. I doubt anything similar will happen to 2/5 games unless they get rid of anything lower and only spread 2/5 and higher in the future, making 2/5 the new 1/2 in terms of skill level (won't happen for decades).
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Old 08-04-2018, 04:32 PM   #22090
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Are there any younger pros that are worried the game won't be around later in their career? Maybe 15 or 20 years? If you look around most poker rooms it seems its mostly middle aged+ that populate the room. The game could shrivel up if there aren't any milennials that get hooked to the game.
It’s by far my biggest concern about poker by far and why I ultimately might decide to go back to practicing law. If I knew the games would always be as prevalent and as good as they are now I wouldn’t be having doubts about playing for a living at this point.
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Old 08-04-2018, 07:27 PM   #22091
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but dog tracks that house several poker rooms may soon be

see florida bill
People arent going to stop playing poker in Florida. If the dog tracks cant offer poker anymore, the other poker rooms will be packed to the gills which would be fine by me. However, Ive heard that if the dog tracks are shut down due to animal cruelty concerns, a new bill will allow poker rooms to stay open as long as they have simulcast, which they all do.
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Old 08-04-2018, 07:30 PM   #22092
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I'm not a pro I'm just temporarily grinding full time, but yes I'm very worried that in 20 years the game will be either unbeatable or close enough to unbeatable that it won't be worth my time. I really regret quitting my 9-5 back in the day to play online poker. Now I'm trying to finish a second degree to get back into the 9-5 world. I really hope a year from now I'll be playing 2/5 mostly for fun and won't be on this forum and the casino everyday.

I wouldn't recommend professional poker to anyone these days. Ever since Black Friday the games have gotten worse and worse both online and live. Just between this year and last year I've noticed quite a difference in the quality of Vegas games (thanks Doug Polk). In order for it to get better, there needs to be less pros (not gonna happen with this economy) and millennials need to have more disposable income so that a 25 year old is more likely to be a fish than a grinder (again not gonna happen with this economy). In addition, inflation and rake increase without stake increase will slowly make your hourly decrease unless you are improving and either crushing your current stake more or moving up. But like the gym, everyone will plateau eventually (let's not open a new can of worms and debate this).

The only good thing that's happened recently is a lot of 1/2 games turning into 1/3 games, which effectively increases your win rate by 50% if you're a 1/2 player. I doubt anything similar will happen to 2/5 games unless they get rid of anything lower and only spread 2/5 and higher in the future, making 2/5 the new 1/2 in terms of skill level (won't happen for decades).
I'm not sure what this means. The economy is booming. The unemployment rate is at a 49 year low. The stock market is at all time highs. Taxes are at historical lows...ect.
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Old 08-04-2018, 08:13 PM   #22093
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I'm not sure what this means. The economy is booming. The unemployment rate is at a 49 year low. The stock market is at all time highs. Taxes are at historical lows...ect.
Lol what? Booming? Real wages are lower than they were in the 70s, except for the 90th+ percentile of men, whose wages have gone up significantly. Real unemployment has gone down since the recession but lowest in 49 years?. And underemployment is worse than ever. I know so many ridiculously overqualified individuals working crap jobs.

I think his main point though that as inflation continues and stakes stay the same pros are making less in inflation adjusted dollars is very important. 1/2 has been the bottom game for decades in a lot of places while dollars are worth about 50% less than two decades ago. Places that eliminated 1/2 and replaced it with 1/3 have partially addressed this but the same needs to happen for bigger games.
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Old 08-04-2018, 09:56 PM   #22094
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Show your sources please.
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Old 08-04-2018, 10:02 PM   #22095
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Just Google "real wages over time." Plenty of material from diverse sources
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Old 08-04-2018, 10:18 PM   #22096
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Just Google "real wages over time." Plenty of material from diverse sources
I'm not going to go do research to support someone else's point.
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Old 08-04-2018, 10:42 PM   #22097
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Lol what? Booming? Real wages are lower than they were in the 70s, except for the 90th+ percentile of men, whose wages have gone up significantly. Real unemployment has gone down since the recession but lowest in 49 years?. And underemployment is worse than ever. I know so many ridiculously overqualified individuals working crap jobs.

I think his main point though that as inflation continues and stakes stay the same pros are making less in inflation adjusted dollars is very important. 1/2 has been the bottom game for decades in a lot of places while dollars are worth about 50% less than two decades ago. Places that eliminated 1/2 and replaced it with 1/3 have partially addressed this but the same needs to happen for bigger games.
Really? Its actually the lowest its been in 17 years.
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wire...-hits-57009559
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Old 08-04-2018, 11:47 PM   #22098
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Based on empirical data if you graduated school before 2007 the economy is awesome for you. Based on some empirical data and a lot of anecdotal data from within my social and professional circle if you graduated school after then it’s more mixed.

I know law was hit harder than most industries, in part because it’s so tied to finance, but my school before 2007 placed 90% of its students at firms where starting salary was 160k. The remaining 10% mostly got prestigious clerkships and then went on to work for those firms. Between 2007 and when I graduated in 2013, people getting jobs at top firms was cut down to about 50-60% with the rest of the people making about 45-55k to start after spending 200k on the degree.
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Old 08-05-2018, 04:23 AM   #22099
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If the economy is so great why are so many millennials living with their parents well into their 20s, getting married and having kids later than in any past generation? If you graduated from college and had the option of playing poker for a living or working at Subway for the next two years what would you choose?
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Old 08-05-2018, 04:46 AM   #22100
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Games are undeniably getting tougher and will continue to do so for a myriad of reasons incl the economy/inflation with some regions less affected than others (eg; Florida). I think by the day it becomes a less appealing decision to become a pro at LLSNL.

Also, people get married and have kids later because who tf wants kids in their 20’s? I wouldn’t say this is economy related. Higher life expectancy will have played some part in this but it’s probably just a shift in societal norms/views. At 23 now I think my life would be ruined/over if my gf got pregnant (slight hyperbole).
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