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Old 07-22-2018, 05:43 PM   #22026
MikeStarr
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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How often on average would you expect a crushing live 2/5 reg to have a losing month? Assume 10bb/hr winner over long sample and puts in 125-175 hrs per month.

Asking because I have a reg friend that says he's never had a losing month and is willing to bet me he *never" will.
Ive had 2 losing months out of 32 months that Ive been playing close to full time. Neither of them was a loss of more than $700.
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Old 07-22-2018, 06:45 PM   #22027
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They are passive. I wouldn't call them soft. My win rate is higher in just about any other room. Every time I go play in a different nearby room I hear people saying things like "You cant play the Isle. Its like a graveyard. No action at all."

Nobody is handing out stacks like candy. The avg pot size in my games is probably 1/3 of avg pot for some of you guys. It takes a miracle to get your stack in most of the time.
How do you make 10bbs an hour in a game that nitty? In my experience, 10 bbs an hour over the long term can only happen at tables with multiple donks that stack off light and just generally play loose and splashy.

What spots are you consistently finding where you can crush nits that hard without becoming the spewy aggrotard yourself?
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Old 07-22-2018, 07:34 PM   #22028
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I averaged about 1 losing month per year. I have had years with zero. Like mike starr my losing months have been very small
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Old 07-22-2018, 07:43 PM   #22029
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How do you make 10bbs an hour in a game that nitty? In my experience, 10 bbs an hour over the long term can only happen at tables with multiple donks that stack off light and just generally play loose and splashy.

What spots are you consistently finding where you can crush nits that hard without becoming the spewy aggrotard yourself?
Stealing tons of dead limp money preflop is my main source of nit revenue.
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Old 07-22-2018, 10:07 PM   #22030
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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How often on average would you expect a crushing live 2/5 reg to have a losing month? Assume 10bb/hr winner over long sample and puts in 125-175 hrs per month.

Asking because I have a reg friend that says he's never had a losing month and is willing to bet me he *never" will.
Give me a standard deviation in BB/hr and I can calculate the probability of not having a losing period of length whatever.

Without knowing the SD or length of time under examination I'll just say the probability of a losing month is significantly nonzero. And if we project he plays another 20 years it's probably close to 1.
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Old 07-22-2018, 11:02 PM   #22031
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Any pro who hasn't had a losing month or thinks it's impossible to lose over a 160 hour period doesn't know what they're talking about.

Edit: live poker this is...
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Old 07-22-2018, 11:22 PM   #22032
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Def not impossible, but for somebody crushing 1/2 or 2/5, its unlikely to have many losing months.

It's not like high stakes where there's just tons of unavoidable coolers/variance in spots where "I have to get it in". There's so many more spots where we can bluff at very high frequencies, overfold because they have no bluffing range, vbet much thinner bcuz they dont x/r bluff... etc,

There's always going to be variance, so losing months are not outside of the realm of possibility, but low stakes it is much easier to sustain higher winrates with considerably less variance via exploitation
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Old 07-22-2018, 11:38 PM   #22033
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Re: *** Official Winrates, ba3nkrolls, and finances ***

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Stealing tons of dead limp money preflop is my main source of nit revenue.
Gotchya. Still, there's got to be some whales sitting in the game right? If the whole table plays weak tight and we never stack anyone its got to put a cap on our win rate to maybe 5bbs per hour. Especially if the avg preflop raise size is only $15. The pots are just too small.
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Old 07-22-2018, 11:49 PM   #22034
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
Def not impossible, but for somebody crushing 1/2 or 2/5, its unlikely to have many losing months.

It's not like high stakes where there's just tons of unavoidable coolers/variance in spots where "I have to get it in". There's so many more spots where we can bluff at very high frequencies, overfold because they have no bluffing range, vbet much thinner bcuz they dont x/r bluff... etc,

There's always going to be variance, so losing months are not outside of the realm of possibility, but low stakes it is much easier to sustain higher winrates with considerably less variance via exploitation
Still the unavoidable fact remains that 160 hours @ 30hph is like s 5k hand sample. Doesn't matter how good you are, if you get set over set a few times, it's easy enough to have a losing month.
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Old 07-23-2018, 12:23 AM   #22035
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Still the unavoidable fact remains that 160 hours @ 30hph is like s 5k hand sample. Doesn't matter how good you are, if you get set over set a few times, it's easy enough to have a losing month.
?

my comment clearly agreed with this statement already.

My point was to illustrate that yes, it can and will happen, but if you're having 2-3/year then its v likely on you and not purely variance.
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Old 07-23-2018, 12:56 AM   #22036
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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?

my comment clearly agreed with this statement already.

My point was to illustrate that yes, it can and will happen, but if you're having 2-3/year then its v likely on you and not purely variance.
Yeah I was kind of more talking to the point someone made earlier about them saying they'd never had a losing month or that they think they never will. People like this simply don't understand variance.
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Old 07-23-2018, 07:59 AM   #22037
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Re: *** Official Winrates, ba3nkrolls, and finances ***

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Gotchya. Still, there's got to be some whales sitting in the game right? If the whole table plays weak tight and we never stack anyone its got to put a cap on our win rate to maybe 5bbs per hour. Especially if the avg preflop raise size is only $15. The pots are just too small.
During the weekday daytime games in the summer, there are very few whales, if any at all at the Isle.

A couple good regs that Ive talked to all agree that its basically impossible to break 6bb/hr in those games. 5BB/hr is crushing in those games.

Evenings and weekends are different. The snowbird season from about Thanksgiving to about mid March brings a good number of bad older recs and whales and win rates are much higher.

My win rate is 56% higher in snowbird season than regular season. A guy with no commitments could travel around to different areas by season and get the hell out of S. Florida during the summer and make a killing. Also, if you wanted to cherry pick your hours and play at only the most opportune times, you could really do well here.

Personally, I just play when I feel like it knowing that I'm sacrificing win rate, although during the summer I do adjust my schedule a bit and play a couple other rooms once or twice a week.
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Old 07-26-2018, 03:04 PM   #22038
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

1200 hour mark of 1/2 and 1/3 steaks. Volume has dropped to pitiful ~15 hours a month due to job travel.



Have a couple hundred hours at 2/5 now, winrate right at $54/hr.
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Old 07-26-2018, 03:27 PM   #22039
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Nice results Donkey, that is a pretty awesome overall hourly.

Looks like things have settled down a little over the last ~550 hours (about $36/hr if I'm reading things right), although still awesome, congrats.

Gnicegiraffe,imoG
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Old 07-26-2018, 03:29 PM   #22040
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Yeah, definitely settled down. 2015 was insane, I played 300 hours and ran at over $90/hour. I don't expect to see that happen again.
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Old 07-26-2018, 03:42 PM   #22041
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Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
Yeah, definitely settled down. 2015 was insane, I played 300 hours and ran at over $90/hour.
Ha, 2015 was my worst year where I ran at lol $7.90/hr over 582 hours.

Gsothat'swhereallmyrungoodwent,you'rewelcome!G
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Old 07-26-2018, 03:44 PM   #22042
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Ha, 2015 was my worst year where I ran at lol $7.90/hr over 582 hours.

Gsothat'swhereallmyrungoodwent,you'rewelcome!G
Negative-sum game!
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Old 07-26-2018, 06:48 PM   #22043
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Yeah, definitely settled down. 2015 was insane, I played 300 hours and ran at over $90/hour. I don't expect to see that happen again.

$90/hr at $1/3? even at $2/5 that is a pretty sick run.. but if that's at $1/3....
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Old 07-27-2018, 03:09 AM   #22044
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So sick nice job!
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Old 07-27-2018, 09:39 AM   #22045
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yo-Yo results from 1Mar - today: 552.67 hrs; $14.47 pr hr playing 1/2NL

That's with 2 months closing out over $30 pr hr!

It's all about variance: V1 bets flop V2 calls; Me have 15 outs!! AI - call/call - lose.
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Old 08-01-2018, 03:44 AM   #22046
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Results for July, my first month in a new poker room:

139 hours played, up $6,290 playing 1/3.

-Includes two $300 high hand, but it’s a tiny room and they take 2 promo dollars with no bad beat.

-It’s $500 max with the option to straddle from anywhere so it often plays pretty big.

-I was out of state for 11 days so the volume was a little lacking. The run good and not having to drive 1.5 hours to get to the poker room certainly helped.
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Old 08-01-2018, 07:32 AM   #22047
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Originally Posted by Badreg2017 View Post
Results for July, my first month in a new poker room:

139 hours played, up $6,290 playing 1/3.

-Includes two $300 high hand, but it’s a tiny room and they take 2 promo dollars with no bad beat.

-It’s $500 max with the option to straddle from anywhere so it often plays pretty big.

-I was out of state for 11 days so the volume was a little lacking. The run good and not having to drive 1.5 hours to get to the poker room certainly helped.
Nice job!
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Old 08-01-2018, 07:50 AM   #22048
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Badreg2017 View Post
Results for July, my first month in a new poker room:



139 hours played, up $6,290 playing 1/3.



-Includes two $300 high hand, but it’s a tiny room and they take 2 promo dollars with no bad beat.



-It’s $500 max with the option to straddle from anywhere so it often plays pretty big.



-I was out of state for 11 days so the volume was a little lacking. The run good and not having to drive 1.5 hours to get to the poker room certainly helped.


Nice results. Is this sugarhouse (obv don't answer if you don't feel comfortable)?
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Old 08-01-2018, 12:22 PM   #22049
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Badreg2017 View Post
Results for July, my first month in a new poker room:

139 hours played, up $6,290 playing 1/3.

-Includes two $300 high hand, but it’s a tiny room and they take 2 promo dollars with no bad beat.

-It’s $500 max with the option to straddle from anywhere so it often plays pretty big.

-I was out of state for 11 days so the volume was a little lacking. The run good and not having to drive 1.5 hours to get to the poker room certainly helped.
Do you have a "real" job as well or full time poker pro?
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Old 08-01-2018, 12:39 PM   #22050
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
I averaged about 1 losing month per year. I have had years with zero. Like mike starr my losing months have been very small
i think this is pretty much the case for all of us. one losing month a year
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