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Old 07-19-2018, 09:17 PM   #22001
MikeStarr
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For 171 hours of 2/5 from 4/14 - 6/1, I lost $123. It felt like I would never win another big pot. I was card dead for hours on end and the cards would just not let me win. The days were long, boring and mind numbing. I won 54% of my sessions and no big days at all.

Then on June 2nd it was like someone flipped a switch. The next 174 hours from then until today I won $9355 and everything was pretty much back to normal. I won 69% of my sessions which is exactly my long term avg. It was like I was in an alternate universe for 6 weeks and then suddenly like it never happened.

Poker is crazy.
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Old 07-19-2018, 09:25 PM   #22002
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
For 171 hours of 2/5 from 4/14 - 6/1, I lost $123. It felt like I would never win another big pot. I was card dead for hours on end and the cards would just not let me win. The days were long, boring and mind numbing. I won 54% of my sessions and no big days at all.

Then on June 2nd it was like someone flipped a switch. The next 174 hours from then until today I won $9355 and everything was pretty much back to normal. I won 69% of my sessions which is exactly my long term avg. It was like I was in an alternate universe for 6 weeks and then suddenly like it never happened.

Poker is crazy.
The boogie man is real bro
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Old 07-19-2018, 09:29 PM   #22003
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About $43/hr for 3250 hours and then about -$12/hr for 1000 hours? WTF???????

Were you on LSD for 1000 hours or something?
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Old 07-19-2018, 09:32 PM   #22004
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I average around 300 hours of cash per year. My win rate last year for cash was in the early 20s iirc after being high 30s and early 40s the two years before.

but i know i was a better player last year, it's just the way it went.

the above, in conjunction with an almost total change in player pool, plus the change in game format that my room seems to do each year - I've gone 5/5 700 to 2/5 500 to 2/5 -10 1000 in the past three years - led to me stopping calculating a lifetime graph.

imo those things are used too often as a crutch or for ego purposes. I run an annual p&l at each level and overall (this year I've played everything from 1/1 to 5/10/20) as well as for mtts but my focus is as zen as possible about playing every hand as well as I can and getting pleasure and stimulation from playing and studying the game
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Old 07-19-2018, 09:41 PM   #22005
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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The boogie man is real bro
this is f**king sick, thank you for sharing
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Old 07-19-2018, 10:57 PM   #22006
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^ very nice share.

I’ve got an 1150 hour break even myself when I eventually put up a lifetime chart again, though there’s a caveat to that one.

@Mike - **** happens. I get that you play in very soft passive games where you can’t fathom how those stretches are possible, but rest assured they are.
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Old 07-19-2018, 11:14 PM   #22007
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^ very nice share.

I’ve got an 1150 hour break even myself when I eventually put up a lifetime chart again, though there’s a caveat to that one.

@Mike - **** happens. I get that you play in very soft passive games where you can’t fathom how those stretches are possible, but rest assured they are.
They are passive. I wouldn't call them soft. My win rate is higher in just about any other room. Every time I go play in a different nearby room I hear people saying things like "You cant play the Isle. Its like a graveyard. No action at all."

Nobody is handing out stacks like candy. The avg pot size in my games is probably 1/3 of avg pot for some of you guys. It takes a miracle to get your stack in most of the time.
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Old 07-20-2018, 06:30 AM   #22008
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my poker 'career' is basically long stretches of trying to grind out a small win rate/keep my head above water in run flat/run bad times punctuated with glorious 50-100 hour stretches of insane run good and disproportionate profits.

as a rec player it's going to be really hard for you ever to know what your true win rate is, so while it's counter a lot of the nittery itt (and I guess the whole focus of this thread) my advice is to worry less about your graph and a particular bb/hr and more about playing as well as you can and knowing that you're pursuing a profitable hobby
Thank you for posting this!! I've had two major upswings followed by keeping my head above water lol so nice to know you go thru it as well!
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Old 07-20-2018, 06:33 AM   #22009
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thanks for the encouragement and sharing guys. And yeah poker really is a different experience when you put in so many hours trying to get good and don't really get much out of it. I remember last year shot taking 2/5 in Vegas on a weekend at the end of June. Was up over 1k at one point Friday but ended break even, lost 900 Saturday, lost 600 Sunday. Shrugged it off like it was nothing, went back to 1/3 for a few days and was back at 2/5 the next weekend. Did pretty well - maybe around $35-40/hr for the next few weeks. I remember sitting in 1/2 and 1/3 games wasted last summer cause I felt like they were "below" my normal game.

Unfortunately school ate my bankroll so I'm no longer rolled for 2/5. When I just got to Vegas this summer I went on a mini downswing that was almost as severe as my current one but I quickly got out of it and ran up like 4k in a week. Then I went on my current downswing which at it's worst point was about 1800 which isn't that bad. What's bad is that I'm still slowly clawing my way out, hopefully not getting smacked back down again by consecutive big losing sessions.

It really is mentally tough. Everyone has a threshold where after they're stuck more than that amount they start to tilt. I'd be lying if I said my threshold hasn't been low and easily exceeded in recent weeks. I think part of my frustration is the fact that last summer I grinded my way up to 2/5 and made many thousands while this summer I've barely made anything after over 300 hours at the tables during the WSOP when the games are supposed to be softest, combined with the fact that the summer will be over soon. I think I have trouble accepting the fact that it's basically impossible to come close to last year's results and also that I'd have to fly home in a few weeks having lost money after expenses. So basically an ego thing. But like my friend keeps telling me. It could be way worse. I could be down money. And I feel like 1/2 and 1/3 are always gonna be soft in Vegas even during the post WSOP lull. Probably just 2/5 and 5/10 games that are gonna be considerably worse. There is hope.

Last edited by LordRiverRat; 07-20-2018 at 06:40 AM.
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Old 07-20-2018, 11:53 AM   #22010
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Did pretty well - maybe around $35-40/hr for the next few weeks.
You really have to stop thinking about things in these completely lol sample size terms (at least with regards to how much you are simply winning / losing), imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 07-20-2018, 11:57 AM   #22011
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The boogie man is real bro
Awesome giraffe Gator!

Steaks? I'm assuming all 2/5?

Any thoughts on Mike's comment / lol lifetime sample sizes / what you think is going on / etc.?

GthanksforpostingG


Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
About $43/hr for 3250 hours and then about -$12/hr for 1000 hours? WTF???????
Yeah, pretty insane! My guess is if he started off poker on that 1000 hours stretch he likely wouldn't even be playing? Incredible!

Gpokerissick,imoG
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Old 07-20-2018, 01:57 PM   #22012
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
Thanks for the encouragement and sharing guys. And yeah poker really is a different experience when you put in so many hours trying to get good and don't really get much out of it. I remember last year shot taking 2/5 in Vegas on a weekend at the end of June. Was up over 1k at one point Friday but ended break even, lost 900 Saturday, lost 600 Sunday. Shrugged it off like it was nothing, went back to 1/3 for a few days and was back at 2/5 the next weekend. Did pretty well - maybe around $35-40/hr for the next few weeks. I remember sitting in 1/2 and 1/3 games wasted last summer cause I felt like they were "below" my normal game.
want to highlight this aspect of your game a little here (not picking on you just an observation). The fact that you remember the exact days of the week and swings within a session from events a year ago is an indication that you are really sweating these shots. This is bad news. When you are sweating it that much it is going to be really really tough to play your best poker. This is a leak that needs plugging.
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Old 07-20-2018, 03:19 PM   #22013
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Awesome giraffe Gator!

Steaks? I'm assuming all 2/5?

Any thoughts on Mike's comment / lol lifetime sample sizes / what you think is going on / etc.?

GthanksforpostingG




Yeah, pretty insane! My guess is if he started off poker on that 1000 hours stretch he likely wouldn't even be playing? Incredible!

Gpokerissick,imoG
Well, the sample contains everything from 3/6 limit to 5/10/20 plo.
2800hrs of PLO
1200hrs NLH

Yes most hrs played at the $5 blind level

Never tried LSD so cant comment on if that would have helped or hurt results.

What I can tell you from my experience of these hours as well as several million online hands is that I'm aware plo haz a much higher expected variance but that also the graph undoubtedly represents an outlier.

The experience playing thru said outlier became basically hilarity with every conceivable scenario of ubsirtity of events aligned in an unending downward spiral, only separated by multiple long sessions of unbelievable card deadedness, that no style adjustment or switch of games could hope to derail.

Now since back on the uptrend it seems like a bad dream. I'm sure I have some level of psd as I now play more NLH then during the chaos but I still keep PLO in the rotation each week and it's on the upswing as well.
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Old 07-20-2018, 03:59 PM   #22014
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
You really have to stop thinking about things in these completely lol sample size terms (at least with regards to how much you are simply winning / losing), imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG
yep

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
want to highlight this aspect of your game a little here (not picking on you just an observation). The fact that you remember the exact days of the week and swings within a session from events a year ago is an indication that you are really sweating these shots. This is bad news. When you are sweating it that much it is going to be really really tough to play your best poker. This is a leak that needs plugging.
And yep. That was my first time ever play 2/5 though so that wild swingy weekend is burned into my memory forever.

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Well, the sample contains everything from 3/6 limit to 5/10/20 plo.
2800hrs of PLO
1200hrs NLH

Yes most hrs played at the $5 blind level

Never tried LSD so cant comment on if that would have helped or hurt results.

What I can tell you from my experience of these hours as well as several million online hands is that I'm aware plo haz a much higher expected variance but that also the graph undoubtedly represents an outlier.

The experience playing thru said outlier became basically hilarity with every conceivable scenario of ubsirtity of events aligned in an unending downward spiral, only separated by multiple long sessions of unbelievable card deadedness, that no style adjustment or switch of games could hope to derail.

Now since back on the uptrend it seems like a bad dream. I'm sure I have some level of psd as I now play more NLH then during the chaos but I still keep PLO in the rotation each week and it's on the upswing as well.
That's absolutely gross. I have a friend who had a similar break even stretch too. This game is really sick sometimes. Can't imagine how you keep playing your A game everyday during such a stretch.
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Old 07-20-2018, 04:03 PM   #22015
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Does including PLO and NL (and even mixing up steaks) in the same giraffe almost make the giraffe somewhat meaningless tho? (other than of course the impressive end result)

Gapplesandbananas,imoG
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Old 07-20-2018, 04:59 PM   #22016
MikeStarr
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Does including PLO and NL (and even mixing up steaks) in the same giraffe almost make the giraffe somewhat meaningless tho? (other than of course the impressive end result)

Gapplesandbananas,imoG
I would say, Yes it does.
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Old 07-20-2018, 05:15 PM   #22017
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Does including PLO and NL (and even mixing up steaks) in the same giraffe almost make the giraffe somewhat meaningless tho? (other than of course the impressive end result)

Gapplesandbananas,imoG
Seemed pretty meaningful when I missing 20k from my roll
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Old 07-20-2018, 08:27 PM   #22018
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Does including PLO and NL (and even mixing up steaks) in the same giraffe almost make the giraffe somewhat meaningless tho? (other than of course the impressive end result)

Gapplesandbananas,imoG
If your graph is in absolute $ then yeah of course.

If it's represented in bb, I would say it still has some meaning.
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Old 07-20-2018, 08:44 PM   #22019
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They are passive. I wouldn't call them soft. My win rate is higher in just about any other room. Every time I go play in a different nearby room I hear people saying things like "You cant play the Isle. Its like a graveyard. No action at all."

Nobody is handing out stacks like candy. The avg pot size in my games is probably 1/3 of avg pot for some of you guys. It takes a miracle to get your stack in most of the time.
Played 2/5 at the Isle a few days ago and, yeah, just as passive as always. I’d rather play 1/2 at Hialeah than 2/5 at the Isle.
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Old 07-20-2018, 09:17 PM   #22020
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Does including PLO and NL (and even mixing up steaks) in the same giraffe almost make the giraffe somewhat meaningless tho? (other than of course the impressive end result)

Gapplesandbananas,imoG
I would argue that hours played and $$ won are the only meaningful criteria.

all the rest is garnish, used to brag or justify
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Old 07-22-2018, 03:00 PM   #22021
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How often on average would you expect a crushing live 2/5 reg to have a losing month? Assume 10bb/hr winner over long sample and puts in 125-175 hrs per month.

Asking because I have a reg friend that says he's never had a losing month and is willing to bet me he *never" will.
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Old 07-22-2018, 03:04 PM   #22022
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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How often on average would you expect a crushing live 2/5 reg to have a losing month? Assume 10bb/hr winner over long sample and puts in 125-175 hrs per month.

Asking because I have a reg friend that says he's never had a losing month and is willing to bet me he *never" will.
Probably anually.
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Old 07-22-2018, 03:09 PM   #22023
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Lol this question got me curious so I filtered my 2/5 results and noticed the only month that I had a negative hourly was October.

Did some more digging and realized that I've NEVER had a winning October at 2/5 since 2013. (I took the entire month off in 2017). Pretty eerie.
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Old 07-22-2018, 03:10 PM   #22024
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Also, this sounds like someone who would fabricate or lie to himself about results. You know there are people that have a losing session but got AA cracked AIPF and just delete the entire session.

Would not bet with this person.
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Old 07-22-2018, 04:23 PM   #22025
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I know plenty of live regs that were/are awful and have been crushing for years. One of them just recently had the luckbox fall out of his ass after about 10 years and hearing him ***** and whine about how bad he runs is comical. Especially since he isn't even running bad he just isn't running 4 standard deviations above the mean well anymore.
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