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Old 07-17-2018, 01:48 PM   #21976
shorn7
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Last time I played 1/2, I raised a limper to $15 with some trash like T8s. The hand played out and I won a medium pot with TP of Tens and showed my hand down. The lady on the button wouldve beat me with JJ....but she folded preflop because "Quad Jacks with a King was already on the board"
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Old 07-17-2018, 02:18 PM   #21977
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I once saw a woman lose about $1,000 at a 1/2 table playing like this, and openly admitting it. She lost a grand of her own money.

She also won 3 high hand prizes in that single session for a total of $1,000.

When I left the table she had $26 in front of her. Everyone at the table's win rate was padded by high hand money that day, even without winning one.

So how do we account for that? The more I think about these things, the less inclined I am to even care about tracking a win rate.


Why do you need to account for this at all? They are playing how they want to play. You can't control that. You don't try to account for a drunk player spewing off chips in your winrate either. It just is what it is.

Besides, past results don't dictate future performance. Our winrate is merely a tool to help us understand our past performance
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Old 07-17-2018, 03:02 PM   #21978
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Slightly fyp.
FYP?
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Old 07-17-2018, 03:09 PM   #21979
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Why do you need to account for this at all?
That's kinda my point

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Our winrate is merely a tool to help us understand our past performance
Performance at what? Navigating poker hands profitably? Or game selection?
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Old 07-17-2018, 03:09 PM   #21980
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FYP?
Fixed Your Post
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Old 07-17-2018, 03:13 PM   #21981
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

There's so much nittery itt. Just track everything except giant promo wins like BBJs and be done with it. The fact that you can't account for Crazy Lady #142 is the same reason you can't trust a winrate after 50 hours of play. There are infinite variables impacting your winrate and the only remedy is collecting more and more data until all of those factors smooth out. The remedy is NOT trying to account for them.
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Old 07-17-2018, 03:22 PM   #21982
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There's so much nittery itt. Just track everything except giant promo wins like BBJs and be done with it. The fact that you can't account for Crazy Lady #142 is the same reason you can't trust a winrate after 50 hours of play. There are infinite variables impacting your winrate and the only remedy is collecting more and more data until all of those factors smooth out. The remedy is NOT trying to account for them.
I kind of agree with this, but I take it to an extreme. Why account for anything then?

What he hell would you DO with that information?

I have a bankroll for poker. It sits in the form of a pile of money in my sock drawer. I have a dollar amount in mind that I'm comfortable playing with, and with which I feel I am capable of enduring some multi-session downswings.

If the pile of money ever gets to be substantially more than that, I'll skim the excess and spend it. For example, I'm pulling out $1500 to take the family to the lake next week. I'm sure you'll all miss my posts here while I'm gone.

If the pile ever runs out, I'll stop playing.

So I don't know what my win rate is, but it's obviously a positive number as my sock drawer has never been empty. Beyond that, what does it matter what the exact number is? What would you DO with that information?
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Old 07-17-2018, 03:31 PM   #21983
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Originally Posted by cannabusto View Post
There's so much nittery itt. Just track everything except giant promo wins like BBJs and be done with it. The fact that you can't account for Crazy Lady #142 is the same reason you can't trust a winrate after 50 hours of play. There are infinite variables impacting your winrate and the only remedy is collecting more and more data until all of those factors smooth out. The remedy is NOT trying to account for them.
Yea, this whole debate seems like a trivial one. Record as much data as you can, in as much detail as you can. HH promos, hell even the BBJ hits if you want. Just keep them separate and include/exclude during the analysis stage as needed.
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Old 07-17-2018, 05:51 PM   #21984
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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So I don't know what my win rate is, but it's obviously a positive number as my sock drawer has never been empty. Beyond that, what does it matter what the exact number is? What would you DO with that information?

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Old 07-17-2018, 06:12 PM   #21985
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I kind of agree with this, but I take it to an extreme. Why account for anything then?

What he hell would you DO with that information?

I have a bankroll for poker. It sits in the form of a pile of money in my sock drawer. I have a dollar amount in mind that I'm comfortable playing with, and with which I feel I am capable of enduring some multi-session downswings.

If the pile of money ever gets to be substantially more than that, I'll skim the excess and spend it. For example, I'm pulling out $1500 to take the family to the lake next week. I'm sure you'll all miss my posts here while I'm gone.

If the pile ever runs out, I'll stop playing.

So I don't know what my win rate is, but it's obviously a positive number as my sock drawer has never been empty. Beyond that, what does it matter what the exact number is? What would you DO with that information?
Well, for one thing..the lower my win rate is the more willing I would be to accept the fact that I may be wrong about certain lines I take and I would make adjustments.

If I was a baseball player and my batting avg was .215 I would probably listen more to other players and coaches and try to fix my swing. If I was hitting .315 I probably wouldnt want to change much.

If I didnt know my batting avg, then how do I know if Im hitting well or not?
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Old 07-17-2018, 06:28 PM   #21986
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I deleted a couple of posts ITT. I don't know that they were related to yesterday's flame-war in another thread, but it could easily have been interpreted that way. I ask everyone to re-read the rules for this thread that you clicked "agree" on, and I remind folks that this thread is not for picking at each other. ELE!
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Old 07-17-2018, 06:38 PM   #21987
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Anyone who's even remotely serious about poker should be tracking their results. This shouldn't be a debate at all.
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Old 07-17-2018, 10:06 PM   #21988
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've hit 3 HH in past...1300ish hours. All on nights where it paid like 200 to 300 bucks. On the good HH promo nights you have to make a high straight flush here to hold up. The 2/4 limit tables get way more than their share of high hands because they typically have nearly everyone seeing every flop and anyone with a potential HH stays to the river. Feel like they should have different standards.

Anyway...for me it makes almost no difference whether I include HH wins or not.

I think people should include them if they want but it would be a good idea to track all promo wins separately to see how much it affects your winrate.

Including comps seems weird though as that's not cash and at many places there is no good way to convert comps to cash.
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Old 07-17-2018, 10:19 PM   #21989
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Include comps if you want to calculate your winnings/hour: most useful for estimating annual/monthly income.

Dont include anything outside post you win: most useful for attempting to determine win rate as a comparable number vs others and generally estimate skill over a decent sample.
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Old 07-18-2018, 06:34 AM   #21990
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Include HHs/ small promos in "rakeback" gametype. It should go on your overall hourly (i.e. how much did i make playing poker total) but for no specific game/limit. Don't include BBJ/big promos.

/topic
FYP
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Old 07-18-2018, 06:50 AM   #21991
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Include comps if you want to calculate your winnings/hour: most useful for estimating annual/monthly income.

Dont include anything outside post you win: most useful for attempting to determine win rate as a comparable number vs others and generally estimate skill over a decent sample.
I include everything to figure out yearly what I make
as a 4 night new years eve stay + nye party in vegas is a 2k comp
cash back adds up
HH add up

BUT tracking hands and BB/hr helps to find problems and adjust your game
this I think is the debate issue.

the deeper issue is do you adjust your game for HH promo periods
as you get a table full of HH hunters all with stacks less than 30BB
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Old 07-19-2018, 03:44 PM   #21992
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Alright guys. Things are not going so well. This is my graph since May 2017.



Currently going through the most brutal break even stretch of my life. I've won over $20k but I can't win $1500 in over 250 hours to get back to lifetime peak. Just about every session for the last month and a half I get stuck hundreds right off the bat and go card dead for hours or I go on a heater at the start and end the session break even. For those who have been innocent and fortunate enough to not have gone through this (like my naive self back in early June who thought I was a crusher), it's absolutely sick and makes poker so much more of a grind.

Obviously the only solution is to keep playing and keep studying. My 5/10 friend says to play shorter sessions when in a bad mindset. So instead of playing a long session six days a week, I've been breaking my sessions up into two shorter day sessions, a gym/dinner/chill break in between and a short night session.

What other adjustments should I make? I don't think changing my play style is really gonna be the best solution. I mean things like locking up wins to gain back confidence. I shouldn't care about results, but what I really want more than anything right now is just a few back to back $300+ days so I can remember what a winning streak feels like. The most annoying thing is this graph is almost 90% 1/2 and 1/3, and such a long break even stretch at the easiest stakes is certainly a blow to my confidence as a poker player.
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Old 07-19-2018, 04:42 PM   #21993
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
Alright guys. Things are not going so well. This is my graph since May 2017.



Currently going through the most brutal break even stretch of my life. I've won over $20k but I can't win $1500 in over 250 hours to get back to lifetime peak. Just about every session for the last month and a half I get stuck hundreds right off the bat and go card dead for hours or I go on a heater at the start and end the session break even. For those who have been innocent and fortunate enough to not have gone through this (like my naive self back in early June who thought I was a crusher), it's absolutely sick and makes poker so much more of a grind.

Obviously the only solution is to keep playing and keep studying. My 5/10 friend says to play shorter sessions when in a bad mindset. So instead of playing a long session six days a week, I've been breaking my sessions up into two shorter day sessions, a gym/dinner/chill break in between and a short night session.

What other adjustments should I make? I don't think changing my play style is really gonna be the best solution. I mean things like locking up wins to gain back confidence. I shouldn't care about results, but what I really want more than anything right now is just a few back to back $300+ days so I can remember what a winning streak feels like. The most annoying thing is this graph is almost 90% 1/2 and 1/3, and such a long break even stretch at the easiest stakes is certainly a blow to my confidence as a poker player.
When you in these steaks 100% lock up wins...I'm aware it all one big session but when wins become incredibly hard to put together you do what ever it takes to lock them in.
If they aren't going to give them to you...you take them.
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Old 07-19-2018, 04:48 PM   #21994
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If I've read the giraffe right, it's like a 160 hour streak of ~breakeven poker?

It will be nothing but a blip on your lifetime giraffe. I wouldn't worry too much about it and more concentrate on whether you think there were hands you thought you played badly (especially the big ones) and the reasons for that (perhaps post some for opinions).

Poker is full of these little ups and downs. I've lost my 3 last sessions. Before that, I had only lost 3 sessions in my previous 18. That's poker. I'm less concerned about the results that I am about what I would consider mistakes (I made a massive one in my last session that still irks me).

GcluelessresultsnoobG
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Old 07-19-2018, 05:07 PM   #21995
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

@Lord – I went through a similar 203 hour stretch that hopefully ended this month. Lost 1+bbs/hr, nothing large but uncomfortably prolonged. For the first time, I did not look forward to playing.

I did shorten my sessions, though I tried not to book a W if up early with favorable table conditions. Never did hit those double-ups, nonetheless. You may also want to limit loss by decreasing how many BIs you bring.

Also, try to be totally objective in analyzing hands that cost you after being up early in the session. I know you post quite a few hands, sharing them will get you solid feedback.

One more thing if your schedule permits, grab a Friday night/weekend session. More recs, more beer, more … Will help from a confidence perspective.
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Old 07-19-2018, 06:39 PM   #21996
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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
Alright guys. Things are not going so well. This is my graph since May 2017.



Currently going through the most brutal break even stretch of my life. I've won over $20k but I can't win $1500 in over 250 hours to get back to lifetime peak. Just about every session for the last month and a half I get stuck hundreds right off the bat and go card dead for hours or I go on a heater at the start and end the session break even. For those who have been innocent and fortunate enough to not have gone through this (like my naive self back in early June who thought I was a crusher), it's absolutely sick and makes poker so much more of a grind.

Obviously the only solution is to keep playing and keep studying. My 5/10 friend says to play shorter sessions when in a bad mindset. So instead of playing a long session six days a week, I've been breaking my sessions up into two shorter day sessions, a gym/dinner/chill break in between and a short night session.

What other adjustments should I make? I don't think changing my play style is really gonna be the best solution. I mean things like locking up wins to gain back confidence. I shouldn't care about results, but what I really want more than anything right now is just a few back to back $300+ days so I can remember what a winning streak feels like. The most annoying thing is this graph is almost 90% 1/2 and 1/3, and such a long break even stretch at the easiest stakes is certainly a blow to my confidence as a poker player.
Thank you for posting this! Glad to know im not the only one haha same exact boat as u!
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Old 07-19-2018, 06:40 PM   #21997
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

LRR - Poker always seems to have an ebb and flow to it. When I am on a long breakeven or down swing the first thing I do is tighten up my game a bit - I refocus on fundamentals (position, fat value, etc). As I feel like I am getting my mojo back I will re open up my game. In llsnl most of our $$$ simply comes from that (fundamentally strong poker)...and sometimes especially when we are running very hot we can lose sight of that and get a little too out of line

I think shortening sessions for no reason is a mistake. I would go in with the attitude of playing a normal length session. BUT if I see myself counting my stack and making computations about how much i am up/ or am sweating it then I would know that I am off my game and would lock it up so that I can book that elusive win. My point is when you are running bad it is really really important to constantly check in with yourself in order to make sure that your mental game is in fact strong and you are playing A poker.

nice giraffe, and it will turn around even though when you are in it it feels like it never will
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Old 07-19-2018, 06:40 PM   #21998
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
If I've read the giraffe right, it's like a 160 hour streak of ~breakeven poker?

It will be nothing but a blip on your lifetime giraffe. I wouldn't worry too much about it and more concentrate on whether you think there were hands you thought you played badly (especially the big ones) and the reasons for that (perhaps post some for opinions).

Poker is full of these little ups and downs. I've lost my 3 last sessions. Before that, I had only lost 3 sessions in my previous 18. That's poker. I'm less concerned about the results that I am about what I would consider mistakes (I made a massive one in my last session that still irks me).

GcluelessresultsnoobG

Thank you so much for this! Always good to read something like this when going thru break even stretches
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Old 07-19-2018, 08:31 PM   #21999
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Hi all,

I feel kind of underwhelmed with my poker results this year so far.

This year I have played 252 hours and profited a total of $1,044 playing 1/3 and some 1/2. winrate winning about $4.14/hour.

Looking at this kind of as a break even stretch.

Lifetime I have played 529 hours and won a net profit of $3,814 or $7.21 an hour

I went on a huge upswing though in vegas and won ike 3 in 5 nights in December


my poker 'career' is basically long stretches of trying to grind out a small win rate/keep my head above water in run flat/run bad times punctuated with glorious 50-100 hour stretches of insane run good and disproportionate profits.

as a rec player it's going to be really hard for you ever to know what your true win rate is, so while it's counter a lot of the nittery itt (and I guess the whole focus of this thread) my advice is to worry less about your graph and a particular bb/hr and more about playing as well as you can and knowing that you're pursuing a profitable hobby
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Old 07-19-2018, 08:45 PM   #22000
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^ good poast

I wouldn’t get too hung up on 250 hour break even that’s not very long at all.
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