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Old 08-18-2012, 08:45 AM   #2176
Sol Reader
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I mean % wise. If your winrate over let's say 1k hour sample is 50bbs, you're far more likely to be within, say, 20% of your true winrate (obv 20% just random figures, but in this case 40-60bbs) than if your winrate is 10bbs (in which case 8-12bbs). Maybe usually your winrate will be off about 20bb/hour (which is a lot) and rarely more after a 1k hour sample size. If your winrate is 50bb/hr that means your winrate is likely to be 30bb/hr at worst, but possibly as high as 70bb/hour, whereas if your winrate is 10bbs you might actually be a losing player. The higher your winrate the more likely your winrate is closer to your winrate %-wise (as I had said in my earlier post).

As such I would say someone who experiences 50bb/hour, or okay let's be frank, 180gbp/hour winrates, is a LOT more likely to be a decent/big winner, than someone with only 90. That's just fact.

This is similar to husngs. Because rake is included, a 10% RoI is actually not a 200% winrate compared to 5% RoI, it's actually less, but despite that, you need a smaller sample to be closer to true winrate Let me link:

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...=2#Post7912125

As you can see, as your winrate is higher, your confidence level is higher for the same sample size.

Anyway all this is moot, I doubt anyone will get a satisfactory sample size because my game is constantly improving, though I can confidently say I am better than a lot of/most of the regs I play with already. Certainly at 2/5 or below.

I've played a lot of poker, I've experienced huge downswings and run bad too. I once had an 80bi below EV downswing at husngs... I ran 50k or so below EV while taking a shot once, which, amazingly, meant that I was more money below EV than I had money in my account at that time. Obviously my winrate could even be as low as 50/hour, but I think the chances are pretty low it's less, and it's quite likely to be at least 100~. This is just the numbers as well as my observation of the level of play in those games.

Oh and paying sessions instead of rake.

Last edited by Sol Reader; 08-18-2012 at 08:51 AM.
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Old 08-18-2012, 09:29 AM   #2177
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
btw I would like to add, iirc, the higher your winrate, the lower your sample is required for your sample winrate to be close to your true winrate (% wise). I'm not a math buff, but I'm fairly certain.

As such, someone who has 8-12bb/100 might want like a 500k+ hand sample to know what his winrate is, but someone with 30+bb/100 can probably be sure his winrate is around that range with a much smaller sample.
This is sort of true.

There is nothing inherent about the math that makes an observed win rate of a higher magnitude inherently more dependable.

However, when we make observations for an observed winrate of X bb/hr with a sample size Y hours, we get a prediction of an actual winrate with P% confidence level of X bb/hr +/- Z bb/hr.

Z is a number, not a percentage, so it appears less significant as X increases. But the prediction still has the same spread.

FOr example, lets say my observed winrate is 2bb/hr. I take my sample size and determine that this is within 5 bb/hr of my expected winrate 90% of the time. This tells me little about my prospects as a player, since i might be a 3bb/hr loser or a 7bb/hour winner.

Now lets say that for the same sample my observed winrate is actually 500 bb/hr. Now the +/- 5bb/hr makes little difference, since I am crushing the game one way or the other. However, it still takes the same sample size to get me to the same confidence level of 90% +/- 5bb/hour.

That is to say, a higher observed winrate isnt inherently a more accurate predictor of true expectation.

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Originally Posted by parisron View Post
300 hours is nothing live, I have had 100-200 hour break even stretches over the course of years playing live. You need a large sample (at least 1000 hours) with some run bad and/or long break even stretch mixed in to ball park long term winrate and even that isn't enough.
OK pet peeve. It is not nothing. We might not be able to pinpoint a players expected winrate to the level of accuracy you would be comfortable with, but with a 300 hour sample size, we have inherently more information than we did with a 0 hour sample size.

This might seem like an incredible piece of nittery, but i have sort of a point. Some random guy wants to play for a living. He has to decide what level to play at. He has to make some sort of estimate as to what his hourly rate might be. Saying "300 hours is nothing" means that he plays for months and in your mind should not even begin to come to a conclusion on whether he is a profitable player.

In a game inherently based upon statistics, we make predictions and decisions based upon the information available to us -- even when that information might not be as complete or as informative as we would like it to be.

Last edited by AEPpoker; 08-18-2012 at 09:48 AM.
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Old 08-18-2012, 12:31 PM   #2178
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Well I did specifically say %-wise. Twice.
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Old 08-18-2012, 12:35 PM   #2179
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Which is to say, you basically echoed what I said. In my post. Here:

Quote:
I mean % wise. If your winrate over let's say 1k hour sample is 50bbs, you're far more likely to be within, say, 20% of your true winrate (obv 20% just random figures, but in this case 40-60bbs) than if your winrate is 10bbs (in which case 8-12bbs). Maybe usually your winrate will be off about 20bb/hour (which is a lot) and rarely more after a 1k hour sample size. If your winrate is 50bb/hr that means your winrate is likely to be 30bb/hr at worst, but possibly as high as 70bb/hour, whereas if your winrate is 10bbs you might actually be a losing player. The higher your winrate the more likely your winrate is closer to your winrate %-wise (as I had said in my earlier post).
Allll my posts are tl;dr and nobody reads them
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Old 08-18-2012, 03:40 PM   #2180
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To the professional players:
What size downswings are common for you and at what frequency? A 5-BI downswing every 200 hours? A 8-BI downswing every 1k hours? Etc
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Old 08-18-2012, 07:50 PM   #2181
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Never underestimate the physical and mental grind live poker can take on you. If you're not careful, it can even harm your physical wellness (lack of eating healthy, sleep, casino germs, etc) which all have an immediate impact on your mental health.

You also can get burnt out relatively quickly. I'm 26 and have a full time job and try to play 10-15 hours a week on the side and even that can get draining after a few weeks.

My advice to everyone is as follows:

Don't quit your full time job. Don't stop your education. Don't stop striving to be successful in any career. You ALWAYS need something to fall back on. This isn't just fall back on encase you have a rough run (bankroll would cover that). In 10 years you may be vastly burnt out, have a lifestyle change, or the games could dry up. Therefore you're with a 10 year gap on a resume, not many practical real world job skills, and likely will get a position making enough to barely scrape by. Most importantly, you'll build benefits, 401k, etc that ADD up QUICKLY.

I suggest continuing to get an education, continue your career, and play poker on the side. Thus, you can even be more aggro with your bankroll as you have other income coming in. It's almost foolish to play full time. Why? If you make $25/hr and play 40 hours a week you'll make roughly $1k/wk pre tax. If you play part time 15 hours a week while working a 40 hour job you'll make roughly $375/wk pre tax. Now you can think of this $375 as supplemental income as your real job is paying your expenses, benefits, 401k, etc.

Last and most importantly is pure economics. Most employees give a 3% cost of living increase yearly. No matter how good you are, you're poker win rate will not get this yearly increase, thus in 5 years your hourly will not be nearly worth as much as it is today.

I wish everyone playing full time and as a pro the best of luck, however I wanted to point out these things as most people tend to ignore these points because the present is great.

You can make great money, have fun, avoid burnout, and still manage a growing career all while playing part time.
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Old 08-18-2012, 08:25 PM   #2182
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

that post is full of bad information and logical fallacies
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Old 08-18-2012, 08:52 PM   #2183
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Not sure why anyone would even waste time in front of a computer if he's making $180/hr.

"Don't you have better things to do?"
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Old 08-19-2012, 01:48 AM   #2184
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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that post is full of bad information and logical fallacies
easy for you to say. you've never lost anyone close to you to casino germs.
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Old 08-19-2012, 12:00 PM   #2185
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Leading a healthy and balanced lifestyle isn't for everyone. I'm just on the side of having a 8-5 career with benefits and grinding 10-20 hours on the weekend. No stresses of losses, can be more aggro with my bankroll, don't have to pay my own expenses (health care, 401k, etc).

Some people prefer to grind out their $50/hr at 2-5nl and are content with that as their career. To each their own but I think man people don't stop and consider the other values their missing out on or paying for our of pocket because everything is peachy keen in the current state of things.
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Old 08-19-2012, 12:44 PM   #2186
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

not everyone has those same opportunities.

school is a large expense. a lot of people might not be able to afford to go to school, especially considering that the job market isn't exactly stellar right now and there's no guarantee (it may even be unlikely) that they'll be able to jump into a career right out of the gate. i personally know several people sitting on degrees that they can't do anything with (some poker players, some not).

also burning out from playing too much should never happen. one of the most alluring facets of being a poker player is the freedom that comes with the lifestyle, meaning there's no requirements regarding playing time. if you feel you've played too much and need some time off, you can just take some time off. you dont need permission.

lastly, no one should be playing poker professionally if they don't have a winrate that will eventually lead to them being able to move up. $50/hr at 2/5 will net you somewhere in the range of $8k a month in cash. with that amount you should be able to grow your roll consistently, move up at some point, and make more. if 2/5 was the ceiling, i'd be more inclined to agree with you.
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Old 08-19-2012, 02:14 PM   #2187
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If 2/5 is your ceiling, your ceiling is too low.
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Old 08-19-2012, 02:18 PM   #2188
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

oober I think most of us are commenting towards those who aren't making 10 BB an hour at 2/5. I think your comments are pretty spot on - if you're that good, moving up is probably more +EV from a monetary perspective than going to school, at least in the short-term (although other considerations may make it - EV for life.)
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Old 08-20-2012, 02:57 PM   #2189
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by AcePlayerDeluxe View Post
LOL... you obv didnt read the beginning of this thread. There are plenty of iPhone apps. The one most of us use is called 'Poker Journal'

The app is a must for the pro and casual player who takes the game serious. Its worth take a look at. I think there is a lite version that you can dl for free to give it a try.
This was written in early 2010. Is this still true? What are the best poker iphone apps today? TIA.
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Old 08-20-2012, 03:05 PM   #2190
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I use Poker Journal but tbh have never found need to try others.
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Old 08-20-2012, 03:10 PM   #2191
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+1 to pokerjournal. Does everything I need
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Old 08-20-2012, 03:29 PM   #2192
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I use an excel spreadsheet at home
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Old 08-20-2012, 03:53 PM   #2193
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
I use Poker Journal but tbh have never found need to try others.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobFarha View Post
+1 to pokerjournal. Does everything I need
Thanks. Will look into it.

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I use an excel spreadsheet at home
I currently do it manually too but an app would be a better utility. Who doesn't like graphs?
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Old 08-20-2012, 03:58 PM   #2194
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You can make graphs with excel, didn't they teach you? =P

The app is mostly just very handy, and lots of filters and stuff you can finick with.
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Old 08-20-2012, 04:02 PM   #2195
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yeah i really want to find an easy way to take notes about hands while at the table, trying to write the **** out is so time consuming i miss out on the next hand
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Old 08-20-2012, 08:33 PM   #2196
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by OoberSick View Post
not everyone has those same opportunities.

school is a large expense. a lot of people might not be able to afford to go to school, especially considering that the job market isn't exactly stellar right now and there's no guarantee (it may even be unlikely) that they'll be able to jump into a career right out of the gate. i personally know several people sitting on degrees that they can't do anything with (some poker players, some not).

also burning out from playing too much should never happen. one of the most alluring facets of being a poker player is the freedom that comes with the lifestyle, meaning there's no requirements regarding playing time. if you feel you've played too much and need some time off, you can just take some time off. you dont need permission.

lastly, no one should be playing poker professionally if they don't have a winrate that will eventually lead to them being able to move up. $50/hr at 2/5 will net you somewhere in the range of $8k a month in cash. with that amount you should be able to grow your roll consistently, move up at some point, and make more. if 2/5 was the ceiling, i'd be more inclined to agree with you.
i agree with almost everything you say, but if someone is making $8k each month in cash from playing 2/5, and they're unable to move up for whatever reason, i don't think that person is necessarily doing something wrong by grinding it out at 2/5. $8k a month in cash is far more than most people in this country make, AINEC.
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Old 08-20-2012, 09:16 PM   #2197
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Real Quick Question:

If playing poker as your sole means of income, what do you do about taxes so the IRS doesn't take your ****!????
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Old 08-20-2012, 09:38 PM   #2198
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by kards View Post
Real Quick Question:

If playing poker as your sole means of income, what do you do about taxes so the IRS doesn't take your ****!????
You pay them....

Last edited by AEPpoker; 08-20-2012 at 09:40 PM. Reason: Or buy a car wash
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Old 08-20-2012, 11:44 PM   #2199
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For any of you lifetime winners at 1/2, what's your longest break-even stretch?

I am currently break-even over my last 200 hours, but still $22 / hour winner liftetime.

I am 100% definitely running very bad this year, basically drawing dead anytime I sit at a table, but after awhile one has to start questioning if they are playing poorly and contributing to the problem.
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Old 08-21-2012, 02:25 AM   #2200
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
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yeah i really want to find an easy way to take notes about hands while at the table, trying to write the **** out is so time consuming i miss out on the next hand
Use shorthand.

You can critique the specific hand where I was trying to set up a bluff, but this is just for comparison purposes.

MP raised to $15, there were 3 calls, I called 98hh in the sb, bb checked. Flop came Jd9d3h. I checked, he bet $35, I called. Turn was a 4c. I checked, he bet $55, I called. River was an Ah. I checked, he checked. He had QJs and i lost.

I would write it ilke:

Older MP r 15 I c SB 5w 98hh. F J93ddh. I c, VB 35 I c. T 4c. I c, VB 55 I c. R Ah c/c QJs.

Something like that. Maybe even shorter hand than that. The most important things are bet sizing and suits IMO. If we're decent players with decent memories it should jog our memory at the end of the session and we can write out a more detailed thing later.
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