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08-18-2012, 09:29 AM   #2177
AEPpoker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Sol Reader btw I would like to add, iirc, the higher your winrate, the lower your sample is required for your sample winrate to be close to your true winrate (% wise). I'm not a math buff, but I'm fairly certain. As such, someone who has 8-12bb/100 might want like a 500k+ hand sample to know what his winrate is, but someone with 30+bb/100 can probably be sure his winrate is around that range with a much smaller sample.
This is sort of true.

There is nothing inherent about the math that makes an observed win rate of a higher magnitude inherently more dependable.

However, when we make observations for an observed winrate of X bb/hr with a sample size Y hours, we get a prediction of an actual winrate with P% confidence level of X bb/hr +/- Z bb/hr.

Z is a number, not a percentage, so it appears less significant as X increases. But the prediction still has the same spread.

FOr example, lets say my observed winrate is 2bb/hr. I take my sample size and determine that this is within 5 bb/hr of my expected winrate 90% of the time. This tells me little about my prospects as a player, since i might be a 3bb/hr loser or a 7bb/hour winner.

Now lets say that for the same sample my observed winrate is actually 500 bb/hr. Now the +/- 5bb/hr makes little difference, since I am crushing the game one way or the other. However, it still takes the same sample size to get me to the same confidence level of 90% +/- 5bb/hour.

That is to say, a higher observed winrate isnt inherently a more accurate predictor of true expectation.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by parisron 300 hours is nothing live, I have had 100-200 hour break even stretches over the course of years playing live. You need a large sample (at least 1000 hours) with some run bad and/or long break even stretch mixed in to ball park long term winrate and even that isn't enough.
OK pet peeve. It is not nothing. We might not be able to pinpoint a players expected winrate to the level of accuracy you would be comfortable with, but with a 300 hour sample size, we have inherently more information than we did with a 0 hour sample size.

This might seem like an incredible piece of nittery, but i have sort of a point. Some random guy wants to play for a living. He has to decide what level to play at. He has to make some sort of estimate as to what his hourly rate might be. Saying "300 hours is nothing" means that he plays for months and in your mind should not even begin to come to a conclusion on whether he is a profitable player.

In a game inherently based upon statistics, we make predictions and decisions based upon the information available to us -- even when that information might not be as complete or as informative as we would like it to be.

Last edited by AEPpoker; 08-18-2012 at 09:48 AM.

 08-18-2012, 12:31 PM #2178 Sol Reader The Situation     Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq Posts: 9,380 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Well I did specifically say %-wise. Twice.
08-18-2012, 12:35 PM   #2179
The Situation

Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 9,380
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Which is to say, you basically echoed what I said. In my post. Here:

Quote:
Allll my posts are tl;dr and nobody reads them

 08-18-2012, 03:40 PM #2180 jimbobwe00 veteran     Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 2,513 To the professional players: What size downswings are common for you and at what frequency? A 5-BI downswing every 200 hours? A 8-BI downswing every 1k hours? Etc
 08-18-2012, 08:25 PM #2182 dhcg86 banned     Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Ignoring the trolls under my bridge Posts: 12,410 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances that post is full of bad information and logical fallacies
 08-18-2012, 08:52 PM #2183 AmazonPrime banned   Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 2,271 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Not sure why anyone would even waste time in front of a computer if he's making \$180/hr. "Don't you have better things to do?"
08-19-2012, 01:48 AM   #2184
Skinnybrown
grinder

Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 659
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by dhcg86 that post is full of bad information and logical fallacies
easy for you to say. you've never lost anyone close to you to casino germs.

 08-19-2012, 12:00 PM #2185 StaYSMacKed grinder   Join Date: May 2011 Location: On The River Posts: 615 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Leading a healthy and balanced lifestyle isn't for everyone. I'm just on the side of having a 8-5 career with benefits and grinding 10-20 hours on the weekend. No stresses of losses, can be more aggro with my bankroll, don't have to pay my own expenses (health care, 401k, etc). Some people prefer to grind out their \$50/hr at 2-5nl and are content with that as their career. To each their own but I think man people don't stop and consider the other values their missing out on or paying for our of pocket because everything is peachy keen in the current state of things.
 08-19-2012, 12:44 PM #2186 OoberSick journeyman   Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 252 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances not everyone has those same opportunities. school is a large expense. a lot of people might not be able to afford to go to school, especially considering that the job market isn't exactly stellar right now and there's no guarantee (it may even be unlikely) that they'll be able to jump into a career right out of the gate. i personally know several people sitting on degrees that they can't do anything with (some poker players, some not). also burning out from playing too much should never happen. one of the most alluring facets of being a poker player is the freedom that comes with the lifestyle, meaning there's no requirements regarding playing time. if you feel you've played too much and need some time off, you can just take some time off. you dont need permission. lastly, no one should be playing poker professionally if they don't have a winrate that will eventually lead to them being able to move up. \$50/hr at 2/5 will net you somewhere in the range of \$8k a month in cash. with that amount you should be able to grow your roll consistently, move up at some point, and make more. if 2/5 was the ceiling, i'd be more inclined to agree with you.
 08-19-2012, 02:14 PM #2187 Sol Reader The Situation     Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq Posts: 9,380 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances If 2/5 is your ceiling, your ceiling is too low.
 08-19-2012, 02:18 PM #2188 The Rumor Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: Wherever my loanshark isn't Posts: 9,559 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances oober I think most of us are commenting towards those who aren't making 10 BB an hour at 2/5. I think your comments are pretty spot on - if you're that good, moving up is probably more +EV from a monetary perspective than going to school, at least in the short-term (although other considerations may make it - EV for life.)
08-20-2012, 02:57 PM   #2189
p0k3rhack3r
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Join Date: Aug 2009
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by AcePlayerDeluxe LOL... you obv didnt read the beginning of this thread. There are plenty of iPhone apps. The one most of us use is called 'Poker Journal' The app is a must for the pro and casual player who takes the game serious. Its worth take a look at. I think there is a lite version that you can dl for free to give it a try.
This was written in early 2010. Is this still true? What are the best poker iphone apps today? TIA.

 08-20-2012, 03:05 PM #2190 Sol Reader The Situation     Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq Posts: 9,380 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances I use Poker Journal but tbh have never found need to try others.
 08-20-2012, 03:10 PM #2191 RobFarha Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: @robbyrobbb Posts: 9,476 +1 to pokerjournal. Does everything I need
 08-20-2012, 03:29 PM #2192 11t Bo Pelini's #1 Fan     Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Spewville Posts: 31,421 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances I use an excel spreadsheet at home
08-20-2012, 03:53 PM   #2193
p0k3rhack3r
grinder

Join Date: Aug 2009
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Posts: 581
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Sol Reader I use Poker Journal but tbh have never found need to try others.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by RobFarha +1 to pokerjournal. Does everything I need
Thanks. Will look into it.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by 11t I use an excel spreadsheet at home
I currently do it manually too but an app would be a better utility. Who doesn't like graphs?

 08-20-2012, 03:58 PM #2194 Sol Reader The Situation     Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq Posts: 9,380 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances You can make graphs with excel, didn't they teach you? =P The app is mostly just very handy, and lots of filters and stuff you can finick with.
 08-20-2012, 04:02 PM #2195 11t Bo Pelini's #1 Fan     Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Spewville Posts: 31,421 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances yeah i really want to find an easy way to take notes about hands while at the table, trying to write the **** out is so time consuming i miss out on the next hand
08-20-2012, 08:33 PM   #2196
Midnight Cowboy
grinder

Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: in the Village by the Sea
Posts: 549
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by OoberSick not everyone has those same opportunities. school is a large expense. a lot of people might not be able to afford to go to school, especially considering that the job market isn't exactly stellar right now and there's no guarantee (it may even be unlikely) that they'll be able to jump into a career right out of the gate. i personally know several people sitting on degrees that they can't do anything with (some poker players, some not). also burning out from playing too much should never happen. one of the most alluring facets of being a poker player is the freedom that comes with the lifestyle, meaning there's no requirements regarding playing time. if you feel you've played too much and need some time off, you can just take some time off. you dont need permission. lastly, no one should be playing poker professionally if they don't have a winrate that will eventually lead to them being able to move up. \$50/hr at 2/5 will net you somewhere in the range of \$8k a month in cash. with that amount you should be able to grow your roll consistently, move up at some point, and make more. if 2/5 was the ceiling, i'd be more inclined to agree with you.
i agree with almost everything you say, but if someone is making \$8k each month in cash from playing 2/5, and they're unable to move up for whatever reason, i don't think that person is necessarily doing something wrong by grinding it out at 2/5. \$8k a month in cash is far more than most people in this country make, AINEC.

 08-20-2012, 09:16 PM #2197 kards newbie   Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 24 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Real Quick Question: If playing poker as your sole means of income, what do you do about taxes so the IRS doesn't take your ****!????
08-20-2012, 09:38 PM   #2198
AEPpoker
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Join Date: Feb 2009
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Posts: 3,248
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by kards Real Quick Question: If playing poker as your sole means of income, what do you do about taxes so the IRS doesn't take your ****!????
You pay them....

Last edited by AEPpoker; 08-20-2012 at 09:40 PM. Reason: Or buy a car wash

 08-20-2012, 11:44 PM #2199 Shuffle plotting my return     Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 13,916 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances For any of you lifetime winners at 1/2, what's your longest break-even stretch? I am currently break-even over my last 200 hours, but still \$22 / hour winner liftetime. I am 100% definitely running very bad this year, basically drawing dead anytime I sit at a table, but after awhile one has to start questioning if they are playing poorly and contributing to the problem.
08-21-2012, 02:25 AM   #2200
PokerIsFrustrating
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Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Borgata, Trying Parx (ugh)
Posts: 1,757
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by 11t yeah i really want to find an easy way to take notes about hands while at the table, trying to write the **** out is so time consuming i miss out on the next hand
Use shorthand.

You can critique the specific hand where I was trying to set up a bluff, but this is just for comparison purposes.

MP raised to \$15, there were 3 calls, I called 98hh in the sb, bb checked. Flop came Jd9d3h. I checked, he bet \$35, I called. Turn was a 4c. I checked, he bet \$55, I called. River was an Ah. I checked, he checked. He had QJs and i lost.

I would write it ilke:

Older MP r 15 I c SB 5w 98hh. F J93ddh. I c, VB 35 I c. T 4c. I c, VB 55 I c. R Ah c/c QJs.

Something like that. Maybe even shorter hand than that. The most important things are bet sizing and suits IMO. If we're decent players with decent memories it should jog our memory at the end of the session and we can write out a more detailed thing later.

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