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Old 07-16-2018, 02:30 PM   #21926
c0rnBr34d
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by cannabusto View Post
Yeah, I think that's reasonable. A BBJ win is more of a once in a lifetime kinda thing. I may include a table share BBJ though if I played full time with no plans to stop doing so.
Table share can still be a lot. Shorn has a separate thread on this. Where to draw the line is still up in the air IMO. If you're paying $4/hr in extra rake HHs seem fair, but there could even be some sticky spots there. One local casino here used to have thousand dollar thursdays with hourly $1000 HHs. At $4/hr one of those HHs wont break even for 6 months for the casual 500hr/yr player. Furthermore, at another casino each HH win enters you into a drawing for a $5k additional prize that would inflate your numbers unfairly IMO. So do we just artificially draw the line at $500 or 6 months worth of hours worth?
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Old 07-16-2018, 02:31 PM   #21927
RagingOwl
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

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Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
It's a slippery slope though. I would still argue that the BBJ should be excluded even though you pay for that too. So at what point do you exclude?
It's not that slippery of a slope really. As you said, once a BBJ is in the numbers, they don't mean anything. The slope ends here....

"Hey my win rate is 500BB's per hour!"

"is there a BBJ in that number?"

"yeah"

"**** you"
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Old 07-16-2018, 02:40 PM   #21928
c0rnBr34d
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

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Originally Posted by RagingOwl View Post
It's not that slippery of a slope really. As you said, once a BBJ is in the numbers, they don't mean anything. The slope ends here....

"Hey my win rate is 500BB's per hour!"

"is there a BBJ in that number?"

"yeah"

"**** you"
Disagree, some of the HH promotions reach the 1k, 2k, 5k levels which are MAJOR outliers to a LLSNL player's sessions. Rare to hit but still could ruin your stats.
1 - I sat at a table with a guy that hit back to back royals in back to back 1hr HH periods for $500 each, and there was an additional HH running jackpot that paid close to $2k on top of that. Obviously this is literally unbelievable but it's all HH money +3k in one hour. Kills your numbers.
2 - Even a $1000 HH (they exist) takes 250/hrs to break even which for many rec players is half a year (based on paying an extra $4/hr in rake estimated).
3 - Some HH promotions include additional prize drawings up to $5k. Could turn a loser into a winner for the year for some LLSNLs.
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Old 07-16-2018, 02:44 PM   #21929
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

Personally, I add it in. When you have AA vs. KK, or set over set, there is not much extraction as hands simply play themselves out.

With re to BBJ, I would add in $1 * total number of hours you have logged. If you won $50k, and have logged 2k hours, I would add $2k to winnings. Your hourly goes up a buck.

Disclaimer: Have never won a BBJ.
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Old 07-16-2018, 02:44 PM   #21930
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

I have two columns in my spreadsheet: the main one just totals the regular wins/losses excluding promos / BBJs / etc., and the second one includes the promos / BBJs / etc.

Even though you are sorta due a percentage of your promo / BBJs / etc. wins due to having paid for them, depending on how big they are / over what time period they come they could throw your winrate drastically outta wack.

G$25.04/hrwinneratlive2/4Limit,forrealG
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Old 07-16-2018, 02:52 PM   #21931
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

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Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
Disagree, some of the HH promotions reach the 1k, 2k, 5k levels which are MAJOR outliers to a LLSNL player's sessions. Rare to hit but still could ruin your stats.
First, I would say this is probably not right mathematically. It really doesn't skew things that bad.

If we're talking about hourly win-rates, then folks can just ****-off if we're not talking about a reasonable sample size. And I don't think that even 2,000 hours is a reasonable sample size

Side note: The sample size problem is why I've never bothered to track my hourly. I"ve considered it, as evidenced by recent posts, but in the end I just say "none of this matters until I hit 5k hours, and that will be years from now. by then, none of my current results should even be relevant".

So let's say you win $20/hour over a 2,000 hour sample. That's $40K. If you scooped a rare $5K prize during that time, then you're average only bumps up to $22.50 per hour. Not a huge swing. Just over 1BB/hour.

"ruin" is kind of a strong word, no?
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Old 07-16-2018, 02:56 PM   #21932
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hi all,

I feel kind of underwhelmed with my poker results this year so far.

This year I have played 252 hours and profited a total of $1,044 playing 1/3 and some 1/2. winrate winning about $4.14/hour.

Looking at this kind of as a break even stretch.

Lifetime I have played 529 hours and won a net profit of $3,814 or $7.21 an hour

I went on a huge upswing though in vegas and won ike 3 in 5 nights in December
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Old 07-16-2018, 03:00 PM   #21933
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I don't think any of those scenarios inflate your numbers unfairly if you play full time and don't plan to stop doing so. I play part time, very part time post-kid, and I would only include your run-of-the-mill high hands and whatnot. But that's most of the promos in my room as my room killed the BBJ.

I think a lot of this comes down to denial of how much luck can be involved in poker incomes, especially live. Is Cynn going to not include his Main Event bink in his numbers just because he binked? Now, on monetary scale, of course it's different, but wouldn't we all track our results in a given cash game session even if we got 1-outed 10 hands straight? Those are some ****ing long odds too, but we'd still track the results of those odds playing out.

I just think trying to exert all of this control over our observed winrates misses the point, which is that, ultimately, we're measuring a random variable and so randomness should generally not be viewed as some scourge. It's just a thing that happens. I get not including insane **** like losing a bad beat jackpot hand, but everyday promo **** should certainly be included imo.
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Old 07-16-2018, 03:02 PM   #21934
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard32 View Post
Hi all,

I feel kind of underwhelmed with my poker results this year so far.

This year I have played 252 hours and profited a total of $1,044 playing 1/3 and some 1/2. winrate winning about $4.14/hour.

Looking at this kind of as a break even stretch.

Lifetime I have played 529 hours and won a net profit of $3,814 or $7.21 an hour

I went on a huge upswing though in vegas and won ike 3 in 5 nights in December
Given your 529 hour sample, you're probably winning somewhere between $0 and $15 an hour, but it's still small enough that if you can generate an objective intuition about your skill set, then I'd rather trust that than the actual results.
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Old 07-16-2018, 03:04 PM   #21935
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

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Originally Posted by samo View Post
Personally, I add it in. When you have AA vs. KK, or set over set, there is not much extraction as hands simply play themselves out.

With re to BBJ, I would add in $1 * total number of hours you have logged. If you won $50k, and have logged 2k hours, I would add $2k to winnings. Your hourly goes up a buck.

Disclaimer: Have never won a BBJ.
+1. I like this logic.
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Old 07-16-2018, 03:11 PM   #21936
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

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Originally Posted by RagingOwl View Post
First, I would say this is probably not right mathematically. It really doesn't skew things that bad.

If we're talking about hourly win-rates, then folks can just ****-off if we're not talking about a reasonable sample size. And I don't think that even 2,000 hours is a reasonable sample size

Side note: The sample size problem is why I've never bothered to track my hourly. I"ve considered it, as evidenced by recent posts, but in the end I just say "none of this matters until I hit 5k hours, and that will be years from now. by then, none of my current results should even be relevant".

So let's say you win $20/hour over a 2,000 hour sample. That's $40K. If you scooped a rare $5K prize during that time, then you're average only bumps up to $22.50 per hour. Not a huge swing. Just over 1BB/hour.

"ruin" is kind of a strong word, no?
No, ruin is not strong from my perspective. We are all aware of the sample size paradox, by the time we have enough hands / hours logged the conditions of your game, the casino, others have changed so much that it's still not that meaningful for right "now". Those of us who DO track would still like to have an "idea" on a yearly basis how our numbers are trending (which is why I've also been interested in SD and 95% conf, I know it's still not completely accurate but again this is to get an "idea" not a precise measure). I suppose we are both correct. But from my perspective a yearly basis would mean 500 hours instead of 2,000 hours. So for me, in your example it's the difference between $20/hr and 30/hr, which is huge, and the 5k ruins it IMO. Although 2.50/hr is nothing to sneeze at if your playing 1/2... it doesn't ruin things but it's 1.5BB/hr...
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Old 07-16-2018, 03:15 PM   #21937
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

From a tax standpoint, you're better off not including your table winnings with your jackpots.
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Old 07-16-2018, 03:17 PM   #21938
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

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Those of us who DO track would still like to have an "idea" on a yearly basis how our numbers are trending
Why?

That's not an argumentative question, I'm seriously asking..."why?"

What use is that information? What are you trying to do? Pay taxes?

My view is that if you have a job, and don't have a coke/hooker habit, then you are bankrolled indefinitely for LLSNL. After that, every second you spend thinking about win-rates, hourlies, deviations, and other such noise, is a second that you could be spending getting better at poker.
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Old 07-16-2018, 03:21 PM   #21939
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

It depends on context. If you want to evaluate your profitability, then certainly include it as it's part of your EV. Also don't forget to include comps and other promotions. If you are in a dick-swinging contest, probably don't count it as it's not a measure of any poker-related skills.
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Old 07-16-2018, 03:26 PM   #21940
c0rnBr34d
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

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Originally Posted by RagingOwl View Post
Why?

That's not an argumentative question, I'm seriously asking..."why?"

What use is that information? What are you trying to do? Pay taxes?

My view is that if you have a job, and don't have a coke/hooker habit, then you are bankrolled indefinitely for LLSNL. After that, every second you spend thinking about win-rates, hourlies, deviations, and other such noise, is a second that you could be spending getting better at poker.
Because I believe, and clearly we don't agree here and that's fine, that as I grow as a play and identify leaks, apply different strategies that I can get an idea of if there is an impact or not based on a 500 hr sample size. I know there can be false positives and negatives hidden in the variance but some of that can be fished out with SD. The reason is to measure / record with the goal of improving. I went with my gut for years with your exact sentiment above before I started tracking. Mostly because I felt like a winning player but I didn't know if I was making 2 BB/hr or 5 or 10, and most people would challenge me and say, "you're probably barely break even". Ok, so how do I know if I'm barely break even if I don't track at all? And how to get to the next level? And if an adjustment made any difference? Just because we cant know for certain in a small sample size how we are trending doesn't mean we shouldn't try IMO.
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Old 07-16-2018, 03:28 PM   #21941
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
It depends on context. If you want to evaluate your profitability, then certainly include it as it's part of your EV. Also don't forget to include comps and other promotions. If you are in a dick-swinging contest, probably don't count it as it's not a measure of any poker-related skills.
This isn't fair though because if my dick swing is weighted with an extra $4h/hr rake I need to be stronger to swing at same rate...
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Old 07-16-2018, 03:29 PM   #21942
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard32 View Post
Hi all,

I feel kind of underwhelmed with my poker results this year so far.

This year I have played 252 hours and profited a total of $1,044 playing 1/3 and some 1/2. winrate winning about $4.14/hour.

Looking at this kind of as a break even stretch.

Lifetime I have played 529 hours and won a net profit of $3,814 or $7.21 an hour

I went on a huge upswing though in vegas and won ike 3 in 5 nights in December
The overwhelming vast majority of people who play poker don't win. So even though your results are modest, you're still doing better than most.

Why do you play poker? Hopefully it's for the fun / challenge / etc., with any money made on the side as a bonus. If that's the case, and you're still having fun / being challenged / etc. while making a little money, then you're doing fine.

ETA: This year I'll complete my 9th full year of recreational 1/3 NL. I've had a $35.48/hr year (over 568 hours). I've had a $7.90/hr year (over 582 hours, just two years later). And I've had everything in-between. That's probably how poker works.

GgoodluckG
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Old 07-16-2018, 03:42 PM   #21943
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
The overwhelming vast majority of people who play poker don't win. So even though your results are modest, you're still doing better than most.

Why do you play poker? Hopefully it's for the fun / challenge / etc., with any money made on the side as a bonus. If that's the case, and you're still having fun / being challenged / etc. while making a little money, then you're doing fine.

ETA: This year I'll complete my 9th full year of recreational 1/3 NL. I've had a $35.48/hr year (over 568 hours). I've had a $7.90/hr year (over 582 hours, just two years later). And I've had everything in-between. That's probably how poker works.

GgoodluckG

Yeah I play for fun and the challenge it gives me.

I want it to be a supplemental income to me as well though.

I have a day job though so usually just play on the weekends.

I work hard though overall to improve
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Old 07-16-2018, 03:45 PM   #21944
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ha, it looks like you are doing everything fine, it's just that your biggest problem might be in expectation. I've lowered my expectations massively and it's done wonders for the mental game.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 07-16-2018, 03:47 PM   #21945
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

I asked this a while back

some added twists

HH promo rakes are pulled from pots in some rooms even when no promo is currently running
so in effect you are paying into a pool with 0% chance to win at that time.
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Old 07-16-2018, 03:53 PM   #21946
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

I'd add it to winrate because it's raked separately in most rooms, but I'm not adding a jackpot in to winrate if it's some crazy large amount. If I win an $80,000 high hand jackpot in 2017 and add it to my winrate, and my total net for the year is $25,000, should I be patting myself on the back? Of course not. I should be quitting poker.
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Old 07-16-2018, 03:58 PM   #21947
c0rnBr34d
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

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I'd add it to winrate because it's raked separately in most rooms, but I'm not adding a jackpot in to winrate if it's some crazy large amount. If I win an $80,000 high hand jackpot in 2017 and add it to my winrate, and my total net for the year is $25,000, should I be patting myself on the back? Of course not. I should be quitting poker.
I think this is the consensus for normal $100-$500 HH promos. My follow up question was where do you draw the line? And so far I like samo's suggestion of scaling larger promos by hours played since you are still paying for them, without blowing up small sample sizes by adding 250 hrs of profit into a 500 hr sample size for example.
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Old 07-16-2018, 05:34 PM   #21948
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

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Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
I think this is the consensus for normal $100-$500 HH promos. My follow up question was where do you draw the line? And so far I like samo's suggestion of scaling larger promos by hours played since you are still paying for them, without blowing up small sample sizes by adding 250 hrs of profit into a 500 hr sample size for example.
I think I'd just draw the line at high hands and bonus payouts and not count bad beats. Highest amount I've seen for high hands are in the $1500-2000 range but they're generally in the $200-500 range. I don't think those can affect your winrate enough to make a difference unless you're playing a very small amount of hours in the period you allocate it towards and when you consider the rake you're paying for them with separate jackpot drops they affect it even less, if at all. Besides, any player who plays in a room that has both high hands and a bad beat jackpot are almost certainly going to lose money to the jackpot rake over multiple thousands of hours.

I'll throw out another interesting question though: Is a profitable player already automatically taking a long-term loss with high hand jackpots? Meaning, if 100% of every dollar of a high hand rake is given back to the players, do the losing players gain more money than the profitable ones? I'd guess they would, since a winning player is probably more often folding high-hand eligible type hands than a losing one. If that's the case, then high hand jackpots are poker's form of socialism (although the amounts it contributes to said socialism is fairly negligible. It would still qualify as a form of poker welfare, though).
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Old 07-16-2018, 08:20 PM   #21949
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
2 - Poker Bankroll Tracker: To Death's comment above this app DOES have standard deviation and a bunch of nice bells and whistles. I love the odds calculator (that supports ranges). The free version is ad based which is a minor nuisance but not terrible. It's UI is almost over the top for me. All the colors and fanciness is ok I guess but not necessary. The only thing I dont like so far about this app is the session list doesn't include play time, only location, profit, date, and game type. Small but I'm used to seeing this and think it's relevant to see without running a report. The other issue is it's subscription based, $8/year in the US seems fair though.
My sessions show date, start time, and length of session. Yours don't?

-----

I'm still clueless about what to do with my comp dollars. I found out gift cards can actually be used for slot play but...turns out you can't buy gift cards with comp dollars. You can buy literally everything else they sell. But I guess they don't want people turning comp dollars that expire every 60 days into gift cards that don't expire. Man what a ripoff. Back to selling Oakleys for 40 cents on the dollar I guess.
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Old 07-16-2018, 08:32 PM   #21950
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Given your 529 hour sample, you're probably winning somewhere between $0 and $15 an hour, but it's still small enough that if you can generate an objective intuition about your skill set, then I'd rather trust that than the actual results.
Ahh that’s good to know!

I feel overall over my last 200 hour or so I kinda had an epiphany about value betting thinner and bet folding A LOT more in these low limit games so hopefully it helps me win rate more
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