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Old 07-08-2018, 01:53 PM   #21826
SABR42
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you have income outside poker, play whatever you can afford to lose.
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Old 07-08-2018, 04:44 PM   #21827
MikeStarr
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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
Agreed...if I had saved only 4 to 6 months life expenses I would have busted in December. Maybe if you already know you're a crusher that would be sufficient but it's definitely risky.
He said hes got 2000 hrs of 1/2 at $22/hr and 500 hours of 2/5 at in insanely high rate that he knows is unsustainable. That's enough hours to know that he's a winner and not just running good. He shouldn't be going on any 4-6+ month downswings deep enough that they get anywhere near busting his roll if he has a proper poker bankroll outside of his life expenses.

If you have 4-6 months of life expenses saved up, and you break even for 4 months, yours still in fine shape. Your bills are all still paid and your entire poker roll is intact. And he should never be breaking even for 4 months (500-600 hours) if hes winning like he says he is.
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Old 07-08-2018, 07:52 PM   #21828
Xiph0id
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

This is my stats.

I still need to break it down as i play quite a mix of stakes.
About 30% .25/50c Mixed games, 60% 1-2 NLHE, 5% 1-2 PLO, 5% 2-5 PLO

2017 146 Hours 6611 profit 45.28 hourly
2018 236 Hours 7051 profit 29.88 hourly
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Old 07-08-2018, 08:03 PM   #21829
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
Agreed...if I had saved only 4 to 6 months life expenses I would have busted in December. Maybe if you already know you're a crusher that would be sufficient but it's definitely risky.
That's a problem though. Many people think they're crushers but they really aren't. I thought I was a 1/3 crusher a month ago after having logged 850 ish hours since May 2017 at that point in time. Then June happened. Maybe I just ran extremely bad. Certainly was card dead most sessions I played. But I don't think I'm close to being a 10bb crusher anymore. Definitely above 5bb, but not a crusher.
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Old 07-08-2018, 08:21 PM   #21830
MikeStarr
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How does having only 4-6 months life expenses have anything to do with busting an adequate poker roll? Maybe we are talking about 2 different things.

I'm talking about having 4-6 months of life expenses on top of and set aside from a poker bank roll of maybe 30 buy ins.

A pro who has a track record of winning should never bust a 30 buy in bankroll. There's really not much chance of losing more than 15 buy ins unless you play some crazy maniacal style. I wouldnt call LongBall a crusher since he said his 2000 hour win rate at 1/3 is $22/hr (or a bit over 7BBs) but its a pretty decent win rate over a pretty decent sample.

If he has 4-6 months living expenses saved and can pay all of his bills for that long without taking anything out of his poker bankroll during a long bad stretch, how can he go broke? Even if he breaks even for 6 months (or 800ish hours) all his bills are paid and he still has 30 buy ins in his poker roll. And I will submit that if he breaks even over 800 hours, something is definitely wrong with his game and he was never ready to go pro in the first place.
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Old 07-08-2018, 10:28 PM   #21831
LordRiverRat
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
A pro who has a track record of winning should never bust a 30 buy in bankroll. There's really not much chance of losing more than 15 buy ins unless you play some crazy maniacal style.
I know a solid 2/5 pro who had nearly a 10k downswing at a 500 max game. I know a solid 5/10 pro who has been winning at 5/10 for years and went on a 30k downswing. Both play TAG and mostly don't run crazy big bluffs. I really think it depends on the stakes. 1/3 maybe, but 2/5 and above I wouldn't be so sure. You have a good winning record Mike. You've never had a 15 buy in downswing or several hundred hours of breaking even over the thousands of hours at 2/5 you have?
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Old 07-09-2018, 04:32 AM   #21832
bodybuilder32
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From reading his hand histories, Mike plays a pretty low variance style. For example, folding AK to 3bets and not choosing to 3bet AK. This allows him to avoid spots where he is stuck with A high barreling off his stack.

He may have changed his style since then I'm not sure. Its probably read dependent since he plays with OMC'S during the day time.

His low variance approach and nitty games make it less likely that he would suffer a major downswing
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Old 07-09-2018, 08:21 AM   #21833
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bodybuilder32 View Post
From reading his hand histories, Mike plays a pretty low variance style. For example, folding AK to 3bets and not choosing to 3bet AK. This allows him to avoid spots where he is stuck with A high barreling off his stack.
He may have changed his style since then I'm not sure. Its probably read dependent since he plays with OMC'S during the day time.

His low variance approach and nitty games make it less likely that he would suffer a major downswing
sounds like a solid winning long term way to play
yet so many let the Degen side of them show
OH I GOT +0.00012% EV I'm shoving
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Old 07-09-2018, 08:25 AM   #21834
MikeStarr
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Originally Posted by bodybuilder32 View Post
From reading his hand histories, Mike plays a pretty low variance style. For example, folding AK to 3bets and not choosing to 3bet AK. This allows him to avoid spots where he is stuck with A high barreling off his stack.

He may have changed his style since then I'm not sure. Its probably read dependent since he plays with OMC'S during the day time.

His low variance approach and nitty games make it less likely that he would suffer a major downswing
I do fold AK to 3 bets a fair amount depending on the player but I 3 bet AK all the time. Yesterday I 3 bet AQ twice and K9s once.

I probably do fold the best hand more than other good players which also means I fold second best hands more often then other good players. This leads to less variance. I prefer to play big pots when I am the aggressor. I value raise with lots of hands that I would easily fold to a raise myself.

I would think my variance is lower due to nitty games although when I play at the Kennel Club, which has serious action any time of day, my win rate is substantially higher and my variance is only 9% higher.
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Old 07-09-2018, 08:31 AM   #21835
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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
I know a solid 2/5 pro who had nearly a 10k downswing at a 500 max game. I know a solid 5/10 pro who has been winning at 5/10 for years and went on a 30k downswing. Both play TAG and mostly don't run crazy big bluffs. I really think it depends on the stakes. 1/3 maybe, but 2/5 and above I wouldn't be so sure. You have a good winning record Mike. You've never had a 15 buy in downswing or several hundred hours of breaking even over the thousands of hours at 2/5 you have?
In about 4000 hours, Ive had two 200-230 hour break even stretches and my max downswing is about 9 buy ins.

Im not saying that great players cant have bigger downswings, but I do think they can be mostly be avoided. There's no shame in making adjustments to your game when everything is going against you, and lower variance doesn't mean lower win rate. You dont have to give up EV to lower variance. You can just avoid most of the neutral EV spots and slow down with the meta game wars with other regs.

Here's the thing...even with the crazy $10,000 downswing you mentioned that your 2/5 pro friend went thru, that's still "only" 20 buy ins. That should be a once in a lifetime downswing and if he had 30 buy ins and 4-6 months life expenses he is still fine.
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Old 07-09-2018, 09:31 AM   #21836
Shai Hulud
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
How does having only 4-6 months life expenses have anything to do with busting an adequate poker roll?
Because stuff happens and while a pro may not bust over 4 months, if he has a break even or slightly winning stretch that is problematic enough, because when the life roll is gone we are now pulling from our bankroll for rent, food, utilities, etc. Not to mention unexpected costs that can be potentially catastrophic, such as being in a car accident and having no transportation, or needing to be hospitalized. A 4 month life roll, particularly somewhere with low cost of living like Thackerville, can be wiped out by any number of emergencies.

Personally I started with 10k bankroll and a years living expenses. I got my bankroll up to 20k then moved up in stakes too soon and went on a downswing in December right after a month of being sick and several days spent in the hospital. Back to 10k. Meanwhile if I had saved only 4 months expenses I would be 2 months in debt at that point for rent etc., plus hospital bills, and having no steady stream of income the only place to take that would be my bankroll. And that would have busted me, even though I was break even over this period.

Poker is not a steady stream of income so great care should be taken in planning financially to account for extended periods where you have potentially large expenses and possibly very limited or even zero or negative income.

An additional benefit of a bigger life roll is we can put all winnings back into the bankroll, which helps us move up stakes faster as well as decrease risk of ruin.
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Old 07-09-2018, 09:59 AM   #21837
MikeStarr
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I dont know how that math works. How bad was the downswing? You went from $20K to $10K including or not including the hospital bill?

How would you be 2 months in debt for rent if you had 4-6 months life expenses saved up? If you have that money saved you pay the bills no matter what happens with poker. If you have a downswing you still pay your bills. I dont see how 4 months or 12 months saved affects that at all.

If your downswing AND hospital bill was a total of $10K out of your roll, so what? It sucks big time but its not devastating. Move back down to 1/2 for a while. Your bills are still paid out of your life roll and your poker roll is still fine as well. (Not to mention I wouldn't pay a large hospital bill in one shot. They will take payments over a very long time frame. Also, what about insurance?)

Clearly the more money saved the better. I'm just saying 4-6 months in life expenses and 30 buy ins for a long term winner should be fine. If you're trying to determine if you "could" make it as a pro, maybe not. Especially for a 1/2 player with a track record that's not all that long though. If you expect to beat 2/5 for 8BB+ you should be massacring 1/2 for 12-15BB+
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Old 07-09-2018, 10:11 AM   #21838
Avaritia
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
If you have income outside poker, play whatever you can afford to lose.
Yep.

I am able to sit in any public game east of the mississippi...and its not because I'm good at poker.
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Old 07-09-2018, 12:26 PM   #21839
gobbledygeek
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A clueless NL noob reaches 4000 hours of live 1/3 NL:





GitiswhatitisG
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Old 07-09-2018, 03:30 PM   #21840
Ranma4703
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Very solid GG, congrats


I would recommend against playing poker for a living, it's just a very rough life. I do pretty solid at poker (60/hour over last 1k hours, running hot but 40/hour seems very doable) and as I've gotten older, having a steady job just keeps getting more and more nice. Poker makes a great side hustle and a pretty ****ty full time gig
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Old 07-09-2018, 03:35 PM   #21841
LordRiverRat
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
If you expect to beat 2/5 for 8BB+ you should be massacring 1/2 for 12-15BB+
Surely exaggerating a bit? Hate to bring this argument back but by that logic you would massacre 1/3 for roughly the same or even more cause the skill level is the same if it's the lowest game spread and the effective rake is less. You'll make more money with lower variance at 1/3.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
A clueless NL noob reaches 4000 hours of live 1/3 NL:





GitiswhatitisG
Sick results GG. Especially that 30k heater in the middle. Nit is right apparently. So you had four-3k ish downswings? What about break even stretches?



My graph since May 2017. Vegas sure was better last year. Downswing isn't getting worse but almost a 200 hour break even stretch during the time of year where games are supposed to be amazing is annoying to say the least.

I guess I doomswitched myself by posting my graph at around hour 900. Maybe I'll un-doomswitch myself by posting it again.

Last edited by LordRiverRat; 07-09-2018 at 03:42 PM.
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Old 07-09-2018, 04:04 PM   #21842
gobbledygeek
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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
So you had four-3k ish downswings? What about break even stretches?
I had two identical-to-the-dollar biggest downswings of $2855 (if memory serves, too lazy to look it up to confirm). Third biggest was around $2400 (if I recall correctly, again lazy). Not sure I've had another one over $2000 but it's possible I'm misremembering.

Breakeven stretch wise, both biggest downswings took me on about 200 hour breakeven stretches. Also had a decent breakeven stretch for probably more than that in 2012 before my incredible run good stretch.

ETA: Also, very nice results Rat!

Gmightbeinmiddleoflifetimebreakevenstretch,lol,who knowsG
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Old 07-09-2018, 04:29 PM   #21843
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To do list:
[ ] - Make 25k / yr on the side playing poker.

Nice runs GG and LRR.
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Old 07-09-2018, 05:23 PM   #21844
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"On the side" = 20 hrs/week, so either 2 long sessions on Saturday/Sunday or 3 shorter sessions Fri through Sunday, aka sacrificing your entire weekend.

And that's every single weekend of the year. If you work full time on top of that, I'm not sure when you'd actually be taking a break.

I would burn out in 3 months tops in this mode, maybe even quicker, and I don't even have a family.
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Old 07-09-2018, 05:32 PM   #21845
longballpoker
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what app is that gg?
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Old 07-09-2018, 05:41 PM   #21846
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It's Poker Journal.
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Old 07-09-2018, 05:48 PM   #21847
c0rnBr34d
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Quote:
Originally Posted by setintostraight View Post
"On the side" = 20 hrs/week, so either 2 long sessions on Saturday/Sunday or 3 shorter sessions Fri through Sunday, aka sacrificing your entire weekend.

And that's every single weekend of the year. If you work full time on top of that, I'm not sure when you'd actually be taking a break.

I would burn out in 3 months tops in this mode, maybe even quicker, and I don't even have a family.
Lots of assumptions there. My average session is probably just shy of 5 hours. I have no intentions on playing 20 hrs / week. Maybe on vacation?
10 hrs / wk * 10 BB/hr * 50 wks = 5,000 BB / yr
Solve for WR = $25,000 / yr => BB = 5
Guess who is logging hrs of 2/5 this year?
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Old 07-09-2018, 05:53 PM   #21848
gobbledygeek
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Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
Lots of assumptions there. My average session is probably just shy of 5 hours. I have no intentions on playing 20 hrs / week. Maybe on vacation?
10 hrs / wk * 10 BB/hr * 50 wks = 5,000 BB / yr
Solve for WR = $25,000 / yr => BB = 5
Guess who is logging hrs of 2/5 this year?
10 bb/hr is hard, imo.

GgoodluckG
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Old 07-09-2018, 05:57 PM   #21849
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
10 bb/hr is hard, imo.

GgoodluckG
Agreed, I'm on pace for the year but I'm sure it's mostly "run good". Next half of the year will be sobering. I'm still leaving tons of value on the table every week but the more I try to close that gap the more variance eats in. It's like a dance, along with some actual huge mis-steps...
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Old 07-09-2018, 06:43 PM   #21850
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LRR,
I wasnt exxagerating. Surely you dont expect to beat 2/5 fo 8BBs+ if youre beating 1/2 for 10BBs, do you? Theres a huge skill difference.
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