I'm pretty sure this is wrong?

The fact that others are calling raises with Q9s/etc. doesn't mean they're also not calling with pocket pairs to setmine (right?). So at showdown, they'll showdown just as many sets as I or any other nit will, all things being equal. And, since all things aren't actually equal (in that I fold small pairs in EP, plus typically don't call raises first in unless I'm very convinced it's going multiway), it should be the case that I show up with far less tabled sets (and if you add to that Gil's theory that me and other nits don't get paid off as much, then I should actually have an even smaller percentage of tabled sets on top of that).

The one thing I did consider is that there's a chance sets are played differently postflop which will lead to some getting to showdown more than others. The other consideration is that some players may attempt to setmine the turn/river (lol), but again that means that I should be showing up with far less tabled sets than they do.

Fairly convinced it's just lol sample size. Although the data did hint (I think) at some things I have been concerned about, such as the devastating affect of losing with a set, which happens a decent percentage of the time (and isn't factored in enough when thinking of setmining preflop, imo).

ETA: Or are you suggesting that because I'm not calling raises with Q9s/etc. that I'm not going to showdown a lot of hands against tabled sets? I could perhaps see that being the case at a table with like 9 guys like me and one loose guy, but at tables with one guy like me and 9 loose guys I doubt it's making any difference (as the loose guys will table sets against one another's Q9s/etc.). Although, I guess their set tabling will also be slightly smaller since I'll likely be figuring out there sets a lot more than others (ha, maybe?), so when they make a set against me I guess it's less likely to get to showdown? Still not convinced it makes a huge difference, but it is something I guess. ETA: Just looked at my data: of the 26 tabled sets that I considered ~profitable setmining spots, I paid off Villain in one instance, and in another instance I got to the river chasing a draw (no money went in on river); so yeah, I guess with me in the hand your chances of tabling a set are less, but I'm only one of 9 opponents at the table.

GcluelessNLnoobG

According to the following, nits are going to show up with many more pocket pairs than any other type:

From How To Read Hands at No-Limit Holdem by Ed Miller:

Nits will try to sneak into pots with a reasonably wide range.
Below is their limping range.

AA-22
AKs-A2s
KQs-KTs
QJs-54s
QTs
AK-AT
KQ-KT
QJ-JT

Out of the 1326 possible starting hand combos, this range represents 282 of them. Of the 282, 78 of them are pocket pairs

Thus a nit will have a pocket pair 30% of the time. This is a considerably higher ratio of pocket pairs than with other player types.

...

...if someone has already raised, they [nits] tighten up considerably. They’ll fold weaker offsuit hands, and the smaller suited hands. This range becomes even more pocket pair heavy. The range of pocket pairs becomes a staggering 58%.

Do you ever peel a pocket pair to a C-bet when you miss? Like 88 on a J72 board?

I have 5k logged hours being a 10bb/hr winner at 2/5 live. However, I'm on the sickest sideswing I've ever imagined/heard of. It's now approaching it's 1,000th hour (live poker only). Has anyone (long term proven winner/crusher) had a sideswing this long? I do not tilt, I do not spew, I do not regwar, and the quality of games where I am have only gotten better and better. The only caveat to all this is my sideswing has been fueled by 20% of my sessions being 5/T shots (only play when the game is incredible) and I've been absolutely murdered all of 2018 with runbad at 5/T specifically.

The boogie man is real brother

Ive never experienced anything close to that many hours of runbad, but i have had 2 crippling downers that lasted for like 300-400 hours- wich seemed like an eternity to me. During this span i ran worse in every aspect of the game than i ever could imagine possible, so i know the feeling of negative variance kicking your brain out.

Havax - ive had an approx 400 hr stretch where I won @14$/hr @ 2/5. My long term is over 10bb/hr. This stretch was beyond painful.

I had a 1000 hour peak to peak break even right when I went pro but it was similarly fueled by a doom switched 10/10 session -> horrendous 2/5 run bad -> dropping down to 1/3 to grind back up.

What you are describing is certainly real and possible given a long enough timeframe. If you lose your big pots at the wrong times you’re going to have inevitable stretches of break even.

Im in a 210 hr breakeven stretch. My worst ever is 230 hours but this one has been especially brutal because I'm losing almost every All in pot I play. It doesnt matter how much equity I have. It doesnt matter if Im drawing...or if hes drawing. Im losing almost all of them.

Ive lost $3200 in All in EV in these 210 hrs. If we could do equity chops of all in pots, Id be over $15/hr during this breakeven streak just from that alone. Ive lost over $6000 in All in EV since March 1st.

I came back from vacation recently and have played 12 hours in June and have already lost $500 in All in EV in June. I go in to play with a fresh attitude anytime I play and walk out shaking my head over and over.

I pray it ends soon because its sucking the life out of me.

My lifetime session win % is 69%
My last 30 sessions Ive won 27%

Since May 2017



168 sessions

54% winning (> $50)
10% break even (> -$50, < $50)
36% losing (< -$50)

933 total hours

150 hours of 2/5 and 5/5, the rest are all 1/2 and 1/3

Biggest winning session was +1580 at 1/3. Biggest losing session was -900 at 2/5.

Somehow my longest break even stretches are several 100 hour stretches. Maybe my sample size is still too small. Worst downswing was $1700 while first playing 2/5. Had another $1300 downswing at 1/2 in the beginning and a $1300 downswing at 1/2 and 1/3 near the end (few weeks ago).

Given the short break even stretches and mild downswings compared to the horror stories I hear or see here sometimes, seems like I'm playing mostly a nitty, low variance style. Maybe this is how a mostly 1/2 and 1/3 graph should look like. Or perhaps I can open up my game a little more for a better hourly so I can get back to 2/5 faster. I really want that 10+ bb/hr win rate! Then again, based on some recent HHs I posted, seems like many in here would disagree . I might just be blessed to have relatively stable wins and be due for the doom switch soon.

Sic brag

Nice results LRR, do you have a short stop loss? Your biggest losing session being under 2 buy ins is really low.

Thanks wj. I don't really have a stop loss. If the game is good and I'm at least on my B game I'll stay. Otherwise if I'm tilted from being stuck I'll just rack up or take a break if it's only been a short session. I have entitlement tilt issues especially when I'm in a good game and I can't win or have to fold an hour straight while trying to pretend to care about what the whale is saying. It's probably my biggest leak atm.

+1

GlolG


+1

GniceresultsRat!G

Up 6 buyins the last 3 days. Maybe the monkey is off my back?

inb4 poasting curse

I played online for years, played up to 50/100, never played live until this last year. I am playing in a 2/5 game with a 1k max buyin, highest stakes available locally. I haven’t played in it that long, but I would say half the players buy in for more than 500 and about 35% do the full 1k. The game plays deep. I’m trying to estimate my hourly, but haven’t clocked enough hours yet. 2 extremely noobish questions and I apologize in advance if they’ve been asked a million times here.

1) achievable hourly? Mine seems very high and I want to see if it’s realistic. I’ve read some about winrates in 2/5 games but the stack depths (coupled with no one knowing how to play deep) makes it hard for me to figure.

2) about how many hands an hour can I estimate for live poker? And how long does it take to see true winrates in such soft lineups? I keep trying to count and keep losing track and forgetting.

Thanks in advance, I appreciate it!

still amazing not to have had a 2 buy in loss at almost 1k hours. TBH, even your record win is very low too.

maybe your games play small?

imo, best estimate for hands per hour is 30. I know (having spoken with my room mgmt about it) that 28-30 is about right for my game - I know some people say 35 or even more, but that would definitely not be accurate for my game where we see a flop 99% of the time and almost always a turn too.

achievable hourly and number of hands to see true winrate is the subject of a huge amount of nittery and debate in this thread and I won't even attempt to jump down that foxhole

1. Really depends on player pool, their ability, your ability and game type. so who knows? Most winners probably falling
into $30-$50 an hr. But yeah can vary quite a bit and over time. So who knows.

2. Depends hand or auto shuffle. Also depends on game type, but avg I think is 27-30 hands an hr is reasonable.

~30 hands per hour. Given the deep structure of your game $40-$50 could be doable depending on lineups and whatnot.

30 is the best estimate. It goes up when the lineup is nitty and reggy and down when it's full of whales who take ages for simple decisions.

Thanks guys. Much appreciated. I have been thinking that $75/hr is possible but I’m probably just running hot in big pots and it’s skewed my thinking

Achievable hourly is over $50/hr..perhaps much higher depending on how soft the games are. I suspect where you are the games are very soft. If you were beating bigger games then you have the aptitude to beat 5/T+ for more. Doesn't mean you will necessarily be successful but you should have the aptitude.

OP doesn't actually say he won online, just that he played very big. I'm sure he did but...we don't know for sure!

there's a guy in my game who talks a lot about how he sat OTB Red Baron and battled him for most of a week but this only proves he's a degenerate with bad judgement and doesn't give any indication of his potential win rate at 2/5/10

He posted in his thread from a few months ago that he won online and played for a living for some time so I was basing my comments on that. He also stated there that he is in the San Francisco Bay Area. I'd expect a lot of big money players and fewer pros than other locations.